Rasmussen Says What?

Trump's favorite pollster has some bad news for him.

Via The Hill: Rasmussen: Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally

Among likely voters, Biden takes 52 percent support in the latest Rasmussen survey, compared to 40 percent for Trump.

Note that Rasmussen is known to have a pro-Republican bias, making this a truly stunning report and it lends serious credence to the CNN poll that showed Biden up by 14.

It would seem that some combination of Trump’s behavior at the debate last week and his infection with Covid-19 (and his handling thereof) is not working in his favor.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2020, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. Neil Hudelson says:

    When that CNN poll came out *checks calendar* whew, earlier this week, talking heads on Twitter immediately slammed it as an extreme outlier–so much so we should take it with a huge grain of salt.*

    Now the outlier is the Boston Herald poll giving Biden a 21 point lead. Hell of a difference a couple of days make.

    *while they weren’t wrong to be cautious, no one could really point to anything suspect in CNN’s methodology. The same phenomenon is happening right now with the Quinnipiac poll giving Biden a double digit lead in PA.

  2. gVOR08 says:

    @Neil Hudelson: Yeah. Seems like a bidding war as each new poll comes out. ‘We got Biden by 12.’ ‘Well we have him by 14!’ ‘No, we’ve got 17!!’ I’m hoping we’ll see 25 by the end of next week. Didn’t see anything in the debate just concluded to dampen that hope.

  3. gVOR08 +3 says:

    Good gawd. Trump is on my TV, standing in the Rose Garden, telling the camera he wants everyone to get the same level of care he got. He’s got his full bronzer on and gesturing with open hands below his face. He looks like freaking Al Jolson in blackface with white gloves.

  4. Jax says:

    Trump’s Twitter feed isn’t helping. Any sane Republican would shut off the WiFi at the White House and administer sedatives, but….it is what it is, right? Bat shit crazy, front and center, for all to see. He might as well be waggling his (cough cough) tiny “hands” out the Truman balcony, 24/7.

    We’re just lucky nobody’s attacked us yet.

  5. Kurtz says:


    Wayne’s World reference?

  6. @Kurtz: Not consciously, but that would capture the vibe I was going for.

  7. JohnMcC says:

    @Neil Hudelson: Well, I just had to look at the 21pt lead! Wow! Unfortunately, the link didn’t really work that well. Googled around a bit and found that the Franklin Pierce University polling website has the internals.

    Their polling straddled the Friday trip to Walter Reed by the President. Which gave them a pretty unique look at the effect of that diagnosis and evacuation. Prior to the hospital trip, answers to the question ‘which candidate would you vote for if the election were today’ totaled 40.8% Trump v 46% Biden (148/167).
    Afterwards, the numbers changed significantly: 34.3% Trump v 54.5% Biden (194/308).

    It will be interesting to see if that shift sticks or if there is a quick reversion to the mean.

    Would also like more info on the FPUniversity polling operation. Couldn’t find them on RealClear or 538.

    Edit: http://www.franklinpierce.edu/institutes/mfcc/9–30-20_Polling-Data

  8. Kurtz says:


    They’re in 538’s database.

    B/C grade

    D+0.7 Mean-reverted bias

  9. JohnMcC says:

    @Kurtz: Thank you.