Kevin Drum cites an LA Times poll showing the recall at only 50% yes, 47% no–within the margin of error. Given the lack of excitement that any of the candidates, including Arnold Schwarzenegger (in second place at 25%), seem to be generating, it would be bizarre indeed if Gray Davis pulls this out.
Steven Taylor continues to believe Davis is “toast.” That’s my guess as well, simply because those against the recall are likely to be less enthusiastic–and thus, less inclined to take the trouble to vote–than anti-Davis forces.
This is funny.
There is something going on here of interest, at least to stats geeks, as the Field Poll has consistently predicted a larger pro-recall number than has the LA Times poll.
I wouldn’t bet on that. All my anti-recall friends are not only planning on voting, they’re actively working the GOTV efforts. Its the anti-Davis bunch who seem to be more interested in whining than doing.