Romney Leads Popular Vote Race, Trails Badly in Electoral Vote Race
For the first time all cycle, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama in the RealClearPolitics average.
For the first time all cycle, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama in the RealClearPolitics average. This has yet to translate into momentum in the swing states.
Indeed, Romney is ahead in every likely voter poll taken since the October 3 debate:
But RCP’s Electoral College map continues to give Obama a commanding 251 to 181 lead. As noted yesterday, that means Obama only needs to win Florida or pretty much any combination of Ohio or Virginia and any other tossup state, whereas Romney needs to nearly run the table.
It’s not yet clear whether this is a function of different fundamentals in the swing states than nationally or an artifact of national polls being more plentiful. RCP only shows one state level poll post-debate, one in Ohio which moved it from “leans Obama” to toss-up.
It remains to be seen whether this is a high water mark for Romney—an artificial bubble coming after the best possible debate performance from him and the worst possible debate performance from Obama—or whether the dam has burst. Given the state of the economy, a lot of people are likely in a mood to try someone new. Until that debate, though, Romney seemed an awfully risky choice. Has he permanently changed that perception so that he seems like a plausible president? Or will regression to the mean kick in?