Romney Scores Triple Primary Win, Santorum Campaign Becomes Quixotic Crusade
The race is over, Rick Santorum just won't admit it.
It’s been rather obvious for weeks now that Rick Santorum’s dream of chasing Mitt Romney all the way to Romney and either overtaking him in the delegate count or at least preventing him from reaching the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot was pretty much a fantasy. Last night, though, Mitt Romney scored decisive wins in three primaries and turned Santorum’s dream into little more than a delusion:
MILWAUKEE — Mitt Romney tightened his grip on the Republican nomination on Tuesday with a sweep of the primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia, and found himself in his first direct engagement with President Obama, an unmistakable signal that the general election would not wait for internal Republican politics.
Mr. Romney emerged from the evening with substantial gains in delegates and a growing perception that he was winning over previously reluctant elements of the party. In winning the main battleground of Wisconsin, Mr. Romney led among strong Tea Party supporters and ran closely with Rick Santorum among those who consider themselves to be very conservative and among evangelical Christians, according to exit polls.
Mr. Santorum, who at one point led in polls here, said he would continue to compete for voters who “have yet to be heard” in the coming primaries, starting with his home state, Pennsylvania, on April 24.
But the day was in some respects the start of the general election. Mr. Obama for the first time singled Mr. Romney out by name, during a major address dedicated to the budget championed by Mr. Romney’s marquee endorser in Wisconsin — Representative Paul D. Ryan — which the president called “social Darwinism.”
“He said that he’s ‘very supportive’ of this new budget,” Mr. Obama said of Mr. Romney while speaking at a meeting of editors and reporters in Washington. Using a mocking tone, and referring obliquely to perceptions of his potential opponent’s elite pedigree, Mr. Obama added, “And he even called it ‘marvelous,’ which is a word you don’t often hear when it comes to describing a budget; it’s a word you don’t hear generally.”
Taking the stage to declare victory in downtown Milwaukee, Mr. Romney took his turn to strike general election themes. “President Obama thinks he’s doing a good job — I’m not kidding,” Mr. Romney said, speaking with a huge American flag behind him and an excited hall of supporters in front of him. “It’s enough to make you think that years of flying around on Air Force One, surrounded by an adoring staff of true believers telling you that you’re great and you’re doing a great job, it’s enough to make you think that you might become a little out of touch.”
Even as he assailed Mr. Obama as presiding over a “government-centered society,” Mr. Romney spoke in upbeat, elevated and optimistic tones that were steeped in themes of patriotism fashioned for a general election.
“The dreamers can dream a little bigger, the help wanted signs can be dusted off, and we can start again,” Mr. Romney said. “And this time we’ll get it right.”
(…)
And with the presidential race now operating on two distinct fronts, Mr. Romney has the dual task of seeking to dispense with Mr. Santorum even as he begins to directly confront the more impressive arsenal of an incumbent president.
Mr. Santorum was already turning his attention to Pennsylvania, where he hopes to revive his candidacy, and also predicted a win in the delegate-rich state of Texas late next month. Portraying this as the halfway point in the Republican race, Mr. Santorum, speaking in Mars, Pa., said, “Who’s ready to charge out of the locker room in Pennsylvania for a strong second half?”
Though Mr. Santorum leads in some polls in Pennsylvania, the surveys of voters leaving polls here in Wisconsin showed new signs that Mr. Romney was perhaps making critical final strides with the sorts of voters who have so far kept Mr. Santorum in the race — the strong Tea Party supporters and those calling themselves “very conservative.” Some of that seemed to be a reflection of Mr. Romney’s margin of victory here.
According to the RealClearPolitics Delegate Count, Romney now has 652 delegates, Santorum has 269, Gingrich has 140, and Ron Paul has 67. So, this is where the delegate math now stands:
- Not counting Republican Superdelegates, there are 1,099 delegates yet to be awarded. Romney needs to win 492 more delegates to get to the 1,144 majority needed to win on a first ballot, or 44.77% of the outstanding delegates, Santorum would need to win 875 (79.62%) of those delegates.
- To date Romney has won 58.69% of the 1,111 delegates awarded, Santorum has won 24.21% of the delegates awarded to date. If this trend continued, Romney would end up with an additional 645 delegates, putting him at 1,297 delegates at the end of the process. At his pace-to-date, Santorum would end up with an additional 266 delegates, putting him at 535 delegates at the end of the process.
Ryan Lizza, Joshua Putnam, and Andrew Prokop use a much more detailed delegate projection model but essentially come to the same conclusion:
Romney will be 22 delegates short of the 1,144 he’ll need to win the nomination. That might sound like good news for Rick Santorum, but according to Putnam’s count there will also be 598 unbound delegates remaining at this point. These delegates can support any candidate, either because they are chosen in non-binding caucuses or conventions, or because they’ve been directly elected in primaries. If Romney is only slightly short of his magic number, it will be easy for him to win the support of unpledged delegates from states that he won, like Illinois, Maine, and Washington.
For Santorum to have a shot at blocking Romney’s nomination, he actually needs to hold Romney well below the magic number by the time the remaining contests end. One of the only ways that could happen is if California, where we assume Romney will win 154 out of 172 delegates, behaves in the exact opposite way our model predicts.
So it is over? Yeah, pretty much.
Indeed, it is. At this point Santorum has the choice that I noted yesterday. He can either take this race to Pennsylvania and risk being humiliated again in his home state. Or, he can bow out now and tell his supporters to accept the reality that the race is over. Based on what we heard from him last night, Santorum still seems to be leading his supporters down the garden path:
Santorum spoke in his home state of Pennsylvania and framed the speech around the state, which votes on April 24.
“This isn’t the time to sit down and rest,” he told supporters. But the former Pennsylvania senator seemed tired and his speech lacked the energy of previous campaign nights. He referenced General George Washington and pulled out a pocket version of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence during his talk to underline the importance of the state. He promised to go out and “fight” for liberty and to hear the “real significant voices of everyday Americans” who have yet to vote.
Santorum suffered an 18-point loss in Pennsylvania in 2006, when he lost his Senate reelection bid.
He has been campaigning hard there the past few weeks and spent the past two primary nights in the state.
Santorum’s spokeswoman Alice Stewart downplayed Romney’s wins in Maryland and the District of Columbia to CNN before Santorum spoke.
“Every primary night you’re going to have some winners and you’re going to have some losers,” she said, and sought to look forward in the process to the next vote in Pennsylvania. Santorum also mentioned Texas in his speech.
This is, of course, utter nonsense. We’re long past the halfway point in this race and the idea that there’s any realistic chance for Santorum to catch up to Romney, overtake him, or prevent him from getting the nomination at this point is sheer absurdity. This race is over, even if Rick Santorum doesn’t acknowledge it yet. The only question is how much longer it will be before his phone starts buzzing with phone calls from Republican leaders telling him it’s time to give it up, and whether he will listen to them.
Romney outspent Santorum 55-1 in Wisconsin and didn’t even get 5 points ahead of Santorum.
Republicans should hope that Romney’s SuperPAC donors have really deep pockets.
Becomes? I think he has actually been there for a while, despite the media narrative.
That headline could actually be deemed an insult to Don Quixote.
Again, something happened to Santorum. Maybe it’s extreme Catholic guilt over the sick daughter. Perhaps something else. I don’t know. It’s obvious, however, that he’s completely become dissociated from reality. At this point it’s like watching a punch drunk boxer step into the ring to receive yet another unnecessary beating for no real gain.
Concerning Romney and the Nov. general election, it’s difficult to conceive of too many realistic scenarios in which he could defeat Obama. Obama could win merely 41% of the white vote and yet still be reelected. Perhaps millions of erstwhile conservatives and putative conservatives will sit out the election.
Barring the job market tanking over the summer and in the early fall I believe Obama will secure a 2nd term with a state or two (or three) in Electoral College votes to spare.
In other news not noticed by the “I hate Obama” crowd…the President clinched the Democratic nomination.
When Romney says we can start over…wtf is he talking about? January of ’09 when we were shedding 700,000 jobs a month? Or Jan. Of ’01, when we had a surplus and hadn’t been struck by terrorists?
Anyone??
Santorum can’t possibly feel that much guilt over the child whose life, as he’s pointed out numerous times, could end tomorrow. If he had, he and his wife wouldn’t have abandoned the little girl to the care of nurses to pursue his delusion that he’s going to be the next president. Would they?
Hmm. I think he’s doing a good job too, and I am not kidding either.
Perhaps this cat is too busy being fitted for $5000 suits to know that people have been dusting them off for some time now.
Thus sayeth the poster boy for out of touch.
Romeny is less of a clown than the other GOP candidates, but he is still a clown. He is going to have to serve up something a lot more compelling than this cheese if he wants to reach the world beyond the 27%
@Tsar Nicholas II: So, if Obama can beat Romney anyway, now you see why it’s imporant to nominate someone else?
@Tsar Nicholas II:
A welcome bout of realism Nicko. An anecdote I know but I was talking to an old buddy of mine in GA yesterday who is a diehard Republican (but very pragmatic and not a racist) and he was resigned….in his words the only question remaining is where between 53% and 60% the margin of victory lies. This guy is pretty well off but he thinks the Republicans have taken leave of their senses nominating a guy with an elevator in his garage as their candidate in the present climate.
Guess Romney has not been reading the paper – from today’s WSJ:
ADP: 209,000 Jobs Added
Private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased 209,000 last month, according to a national employment report published by payroll processor ADP.
@Carlos: Nominate whom? Santorum?? And then not only lose in a crushing landslide, even if the economy does tank between now and Election Day, but suffer in down-ticket contests as well? Um, no. Sorry, Chief, but there are such things as tactical and strategic withdrawals. Sometimes you have to learn to live to fight another day. Besides, when your choices are to be beaten, to be beaten utterly senseless, or to be slaughtered, you choose to be beaten.
@Brummagem Joe: Well, let’s not smoke out of a hookah pipe. Obama is not going to receive 60% of the vote. Not even close. It’s debatable whether he’ll clear 50% on the dot. Joe, things really are bad out there on Main Street. Foreclosures are rampant. The job market still is quite weak, albeit a lot better than the unmitigated disaster of 2009-2011. People outside of places like Dedham, Mass. don’t like Obamacare all too much.
That all said, in a foot race it doesn’t really matter how fast you run, you merely need to cross the finish line first. It’s highly probable at present that Obama will beat Romney. Joe, the Tsar might very well be an imperialistic “prat,” but he’s not f’n stoo-pid. Obama is the incumbent. Romney is a weak candidate. 1+1 = 2.
@Tsar Nicholas II:
You mean better than the 700,000 jobs a month and 9% negative growth when Obama took office?
Obama is not going to receive 60% of the vote.
@CSK:
That is a disgusting comment.
@Tsar Nicholas II:
I don’t say he is, it was a jocular range…Viz.
Personally I think he’ll beat last times 53% but not by much and how much depends on turnout and how the campaign unfolds. And for the real Obama optimists it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that Romney could be Dole II. The Republican baggage including women’s health issues, the willingness to let the auto industry disappear, scrapping Medicare, income inequality which they propose to worsen, immigration, etc etc etc is immense and as that speech indicated yesterday it’s all going to be under the microscope.
@Tsar Nicholas II: “Again, something happened to Santorum.”
What happened to Santorum is the same thing that happened to Romney’s opponents in 2008. He’s come to just flat out despise the guy, which isn’t hard when someone is barely managing to beat you despite outspending you by 10 to 1 or more.
Mike
Not suprisingly, the Tea Party candidate is unable to back down, even if he’s actually hurting his cause by not doing so. To do so would be a sign of weakness to his followers.
Romney still isn’t breaking 50% on a regular basis. More people are voting for not-Romney than Romney.
I just think that needs to be pointed out with each of these “Romney is inevitable, everyone else should drop out” posts. If anyone can consolidate the not-Romney vote, Romney is done.
@Brummagem Joe: Mmm, sorry, Chief, but again we’ll have to part ways a bit.
Reciting the Democrat talking points might get tingles running up and down Chris Matthews’ legs, but on Main Street they don’t have quite that impact. Granted, I believe it’s highly likely Obama will be reelected. I’m already on record there. I don’t believe Obama will clear 53%, however. I’m highly skeptical whether he’ll obtain even a bare majority.
The Dole analogy is not germane. Dole was far past his prime, gnarled by his war injuries and old age, a technocrat who’d been locked in the Senate echo chamber for 2.5 decades, had zero money, and was running against a guy presiding over a stellar economy with a job market so strong they were handing out six-figure salaries to kids who still were too young to walk into a Hertz and rent a car. Romney, on the other hand, is telegenic and “presidential,” was a state governor, has never been inside the beltway, has vast sums of campaign funds, and is running against a guy presiding over the still-smoldering ruins of a meteor crash of an economy.
Don’t get too caught up in the litany of GOP foibles. Women already were going to vote for Obama. The unreported and nearly equally important issue is Obama’s weakness with men. The auto industry is big news in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, granted, but it doesn’t mean squat in Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado or New Mexico. The Mediscare thing has diminishing marginal returns. You don’t want too many old folks in Ohio and Florida thinking about healthcare. That demographic is not fond of Obamacare. Kasich. Scott. Rubio. Portman. Exhibits 1-4. Immigration largely is a red herring. Latinos in Florida are Cubans and they largely vote Republican no matter what nonsense is emanating from the sewer holes on the extreme, xenophobic right. Texas is a one-party state. California is a one-party state. Arizona still is a Republican state. Only in Colorado and in New Mexico could the GOP’s problems with Latinos really affect the outcomes; in the final analysis, however, it’s unlikely those two states will make the difference.
My best guess is that Obama wins the Electoral College with a state or two or three to spare, but that he doesn’t break 50% of the national popular vote. To that end I’ve already made a value bet on Romney on Intrade at what appears to be a decent price, but then hedged it with a partial stop loss on a Obama victory. Not big money of course. Small potatoes. The Tsar likes to gamble but he’s not f’n craaaazy.
@Tsar Nicholas: “Romney, on the other hand, is telegenic”
No, he’s not. He’s the image of what should be telegenic but what he actually projects is a level of phoniness that surpasses any other Presidential candidate in the television age. Nixon and Clinton look like conviction politicians next to Romney.
Mike
@Tsar Nicholas:
Nicko I know your data challenged at times (well most of the time actually) but consider:
If you think it unreported you must have been asleep. And even then it needs to be kept in perspective, in that USA Today poll he was only 1% behind with men in the swing states. And yes he’ll win women again…. but by much bigger margins (they’re not keen on your projected wars or compulsory vaginal ultrasounds)
The last time I checked and in that USA poll Michigan, Indiana and Ohio were all swing states where Republicans are going lose much of their working class vote because of the auto rescue and the attack on union bargaining rights.
Yep I guess that’s why in that Fox News poll a couple weeks ago Romney was pulling 14% of the Latino vote (McCain got around 28%). It’s one of the reasons why Obama is going to win FL again.
Yep the fact Ryan has just proposed for the second time scrapping it will have no impact whatever.
Personally I think Romney will be struggling to win the 60 million votes that McCain got on a turnout that will be roughly the same as 2008.
@MBunge:
Too true. No one not even a majority of Republicans believe a thing he says. And it’s going to get worse as the Etch a Sketch moments are endlessly replayed in campaign ads along with the all the other Bain and Tax stuff which prove what a regular guy he is. After all he knows people who own Nascar teams….LOL…My Republican buddy in GA gets all this even if Nikko doesn’t.
@MBunge: That’s from the partisan viewpoint of a political junkie who would rather stick a fork in his eye socket than to have Romney as the GOP nominee.
Sure, you and I both know Romney is as phony as a seven dollar bill. Thinking liberals (I know, oxymoronic) like our friend Joe also know that to be the case. He too is a political junkie. Zombieland doesn’t know that, however. They won’t clue in.
If you ask any apolitical woman in your life whether Romney is telegenic, she’ll say: “oh, yeah.” He’s tall and he’s a good looking guy. That’s the sort of telegenic that matters out there in Zombieland. My wife hates Romney, but she’s not so blinded by partisanship not to realize that he’ll have a lot of telegenic appeal for the general election. Probably not nearly enough to win the election, but at least with Romney it won’t be a Goldwater-style fiasco.
Yeah, about as telegenic as John Kerry…
@Tsar Nicholas:
Oh I think they will Nicko after half a billion bucks of advertising and excruciating debates and interviews where he attempts to explain what he meant he said scrapping Medicare, allowing Detroit to disappear and denying Women birth control under their health insurance were all marvellous ideas.
@Tsar Nicholas:
And of course as conservatives like yourself never tire of telling us the librul MSM will be totally opposed to Romney….LOL.
@Brummagem Joe: Joe, a word or seven of caution: Don’t bet the farm on USAT/Gallup polling. Polling from that confab often falls into the Dan Rather category, if you catch my drift.
A few other points on which you should furrow your brow:
Michigan is irrelevant. Bush 43 lost that state twice.
When youre bleeding heart gets all aflutter about the “gender gap,” you have to think not only about the flip side of that coin but also about relative levels of motivation. Chief, the Great Recession eviscerated the male component of the workforce. Check out the respective unemployment rates among men and women. Not even comparable. Companies have jettisoned their men in droves and even today men are having far more difficulty than their female counterparts getting back into the employed workforce. It’s entirely possible that Indepenent and moderate men in swing states will be a lot more motivated to vote against Obama than their female counterparts will be motivated to vote in favor of Obama or against Romney. Certainly you know full well there’s a difference between registered voters and likely voters and then a further dichotomy between “likely” voters and those who actually show up to vote.
Joe, the immigration thing is a red herring. You have to go state-by-state. Ultimately Florida is the only significant state in which Latinos hold sway. Obama has no prayer in Texas. Romney has no chance in hell in California. But Florida’s Latino demographic is far different from Colorado’s, Nevada’s or New Mexico’s. In Florida the Latinos are Cuban ex-pats, exiles and refugees or the descendents of the same. That contrasts greatly with the Central Americans who make up Nevada’s, Colorado’s and New Mexico’s respective Latino demographics. The latter appear to have gone in lock step away from the GOP, largely on the issue of immigration. The former have not. Scott and Rubio didn’t just materialize into their offices out of thin air. Rivera, Diaz-Balart, Ros-Lehtinen, et al. Don’t lump Florida into the Obama’s got it in the bag category. That bag could turn out to be empty.
@ Joe…
The March sales report for the Auto-Industry is the best since 2007…before the Bush Contraction…including the much, and wrongly, maligned Chevy Volt….production of which will re-start ahead of schedule.
When taken on top of the ADP report, which Anjin-San mentioned above, it’s pretty hard to see Romney’s argument without ideological blinders in place. Especially when you consider that his economic plan is just trickle-down economics…which has been proven to be a failed theory.
Caveat…the ADP report has been off 100K either way at least a couple times in the last 6 months. We’ll see what happens Friday.
@Brummagem Joe: Joe, only because I’m a nice guy I’ll do your research for you.
A year ago (February 2011) here was the gender-based dichtotomy in respective unemployment rates:
Men – 8.8
Women – 7.9
In February 2010:
Men – 10.0
Women – 8.0
In February 2009:
Men – 8.4
Women – 6.8
The “Mancession.” The key point being that Obama’s reported weakness with men might in November turn out to be more pronounced than that indicated by the polling. Food for thought, is all. Like I’ve said 10 times previously, I still expect Obama to prevail.
@Tsar Nicholas:
So the best you can do is shoot the messenger. Nicko’s law….when the data is against you blather. Of course it’s possible that just not what the data suggests. Btw I had a chuckle over your other magical prediction that less than 1% of the popular vote will separate Obama and Romney.
@Tsar Nicholas:
Since when I have disputed these numbers? It’s a non sequitur in the context of swing state polling data from Gallup.
@Hey Norm:
Auto sales are going to be at least 14 million units this year. You don’t sell 14 million autos in a recession. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that the rejection of the auto rescue and the anti union legislation in many of these mid west states have lost the Republicans a big slice of the blue collar vote. It shows up in a stack of polls. And thus they will remain in the Obama column and this includes Indiana.
@Brummagem Joe: Well, Joe, Obama won by 7% in 2008 against a walking corpse of a nominee who had no money and who had selected a live-action SNL skit as a veep. Obama is less revered today than in those halcyon days of the fall of 2008. Romney is a much better general election candidate than was McCain. Romney could defecate a better veep nominee than Palin. Romney and Team Romney have a lot of money. Ergo if you’re betting the house on a big Obama victory you just might wind up homeless. If, on the other hand, like your friend and hero the Tsar, are anticipating a very narrow Obama victory but are factoring in the real possibility of an upset victory by Romney, you’re probably making the better wager.
@Tsar Nicholas: “If you ask any apolitical woman in your life whether Romney is telegenic, she’ll say: “oh, yeah.” He’s tall and he’s a good looking guy.”
Until he speaks or moves or breathes and then the jig if up. There’s a thousand other actors out there with head shots as good as a young Brad Pitt. When the camera is on them and they actually have to emote, however, the difference between them and the real thing shows up. Have you not noticed how lackluster the response to Romney has been in these GOP primaries?
Mike
@Tsar Nicholas:
Do read and comprehend Nicko….I’m not betting on a big Obama victory (see comment above) just a modest improvement on his share of the popular vote although he may not win anymore electoral votes than in 2008 (but he’ll do it with somewhat larger margins). Team McCain had lots of money (where do you get these fantasies from? cereal boxes?) but unlike Romney’s previous opponents so has Obama. Romney already has awful fave/unfave ratings (previously unknown in fact) and only a little potential upside to them. And the notion that Romney is more respected than McCain by Republicans and Republican leaners let alone Democratic leaners is risible. Even I rather liked McCain on a personal level.
Say man, can we use another word in place Quixotic for awhile? Maybe something like “Onodaish”? That phraze is giting allmost as worn out as wingnut:(
The Republican base loved that SNL skit and there was the Bush fatigue that certainly didn’t help McCain…traces of that fatigue won’t help Romney either…
@An Interested Party:
Of one thing we can be reasonably sure. Nicko displayed his sound value judgement and voted for the SNL skit.
Romney seems to be allergic to the truth…
That’s quite rich coming from someone who supports Paul Ryan’s plans…