Saturday’s Forum

James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Some quick hits:

    Rushdie’s agent, Andrew Wylie, said on Friday evening that he was put on a ventilator and had suffered significant injuries: “The news is not good. Salman will likely lose one eye; the nerves in his arm were severed; and his liver was stabbed and damaged.”

    And she’s gone. RIP Anne.

    I think somebody flipped: Breonna Taylor death: former detective to plead guilty to federal charges

  2. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Risk of catastrophic megafloods has doubled in California, study finds

    Driven by the climate crisis, exceedingly rare megafloods will become more common – and more catastrophic – according to a new study that found their likelihood has already doubled in California.

    The unexpected threat lingers even as browning hillsides, fallowed fields and bathtub ring-laden reservoirs serve as a constant reminder of the drought disaster in the state, which may be woefully unprepared when the coin inevitably flips.
    Combining climate and high-resolution weather models, the scientists were able to analyze two separate scenarios – the present danger, and a future where risks are amplified by the climate crisis. The approach provides an accurate picture of what’s to come. The researchers found with a high-emissions trajectory, the annual likelihood of a 200-year-event would increase by 683% by 2060.

    They built on the findings from a 2010 analysis called “ARkStorm,” led by the US Geological Survey with an interdisciplinary team, that concluded a series of severe storms had the potential to pelt the state with enough rainfall to displace millions, impair critical infrastructure and transportation corridors, and cause close to $1tn in economic losses.
    California’s floods differ from other parts of the world, and are typically caused by atmospheric rivers – strong storms that dump large amounts of water at once. A long sequence of them, where severe storms hit in quick succession, could quickly overwhelm landscapes and infrastructure. And, while wetting storms were once welcome in the parched state, “atmospheric river storms in a warming climate are likely going to shift from being primarily beneficial to primarily hazardous – that’s a big shift,” Swain said.

    I’m not sure how to do the math on a 683% increase for the annual likelihood of a 200-year-flood. Suffice to say that’s a big change.

  3. OzarkHillbilly says:

    I think it has now been settled: trump is a witch.

  4. OzarkHillbilly says:
  5. OzarkHillbilly says:

    kilgore trout, death to putiner

    the highly classified documents I was accused of having -which I did not have when asked but if asked would have given back at any time- were planted by the fbi in a hoax yet I declassified them with a standing order using only my brainwaves and what about obama

  6. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Man rescued from tunnel in Rome after alleged attempted bank heist

    Police believe they were digging through the tunnel, which began beneath a shuttered shop, to reach the vault of a nearby bank.

    They are alleged to have excavated a bit each day so they could carry out their heist on the Ferragosto public holiday on Monday, an Italian holiday akin to Christmas, taking advantage of the bank being closed and Rome being semi-deserted.

    Hmmmm…. That sounds familiar.

    Yes, ‘The Bank Job’ is based on a true story. The film is based on the Lloyds Bank Robbery that shook England in 1971. On the night of September 11, 1971, a gang of thieves had tunneled their way into the Lloyds Bank situated at Baker Street, from the basement of Le Sac, a leather goods shop which they had leased. They robbed valuables and cash, estimated to be worth three million pounds. A ham-radio operator caught some parts of the conversation between the thieves who were using walkie-talkies for communication.

    The operator, Robert Rowlands, informed the police, but the robbers’ location couldn’t be identified. This particular aspect led to the moniker ‘Walkie-Talkie’ robbery for the daring heist. (The robbery bore some connections to the Sherlock Holmes tale, ‘The Red-Headed League.’) The next day, newspapers were flooded with information about the robbery. Surprisingly, the government issued a gag order, thereby prohibiting further media coverage in the name of national security. It was assumed that some of the vault’s safety deposit boxes had some compromising photographs and information of political and criminal bigwigs that risked the exposure of their collusion.

    It’s actually a pretty good flick, entertaining to say the least.

  7. Jax says:

    Color me shocked that the Boebert’s are the neighbors from hell.

  8. Jax says:

    Talk about weaponizing crazy. These fuckers know exactly how crazy their base is, and they’re willing to use them against anyone who doesn’t toe their line.

  9. CSK says:

    Yesterday I linked to an article from that drew a parallel between O. J. Simpson’s defense and Trump’s putative one. It turns out there are further similarities between the two figures.

  10. Mikey says:

    @Jax: This is exactly why the scumfuck ex-president didn’t request the scumfucks at Breitbart to redact the agents’ names, and why the scumfucks at Breitbart went ahead and published them.

  11. CSK says:

    Damn! Subscriber only.

  12. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @CSK: I got to read it, but I’m special.

    eta: It’s pretty bad, the neighbors from hell doesn’t quite do them justice.

  13. CSK says:

    I found it in The Mercury News. What an appalling crew.

  14. MarkedMan says:

    Here’s something I don’t write every day: a heartwarming story about cavers. (No subscription needed)

  15. Kathy says:

    The Cheeto and Cheeto Base view of “law and order” needs to be viewed by the light of the old maxim:

    For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the law.

  16. CSK says:

    But Donald has no friends, only toadies and sycophants.

    Michael Cohen was speculating on MSNBC that either Melania or Jared was the mole, and Donald probably suspects both.

  17. Kathy says:


    That’s why he keeps everything for himself.

  18. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @MarkedMan: I know Rick Haley, a really good guy and a hell of a caver.

    I have another connection to the story as well. My little Sis’s first husband was related to the Perry County Bohnerts*. His family had moved up to Jefferson county in the early ’60s iirc. They still owned the old Perry County homestead at the time of his death, used to go out there for holidays and such.

    *hard to say how closely related he might have been, half the damn county is named Bohnert.

  19. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @CSK: I continue to wonder if any of the J6 recalcitrants ever ask themselves about the disparity in their fates as opposed to trump’s continued lavish lifestyle.

  20. CSK says:

    I’m sure a few of them do, but it wouldn’t be wise for them to say so aloud. The official MAGA view is that those people are prisoners of the Deep State.

  21. Kathy says:

    I began watching “The Boys” on Amazon, and promptly binged season 1 (all 8 eps of it*).

    I don’t want to comment much, because the story line keeps kind of twisting (though I anticipated half the ending of season 1), but does it strike anyone else the “supes” and their parent company (owner?) are a thinly veiled depiction of modern capitalism?

    *I kind of came up with the classification “neo-Babylonian” for the current fashion of story arc TV series, in honor of Babylon 5. But there are two issues with this. 1) most new shows have only seasonal story arcs, rather than a series-wide arc; 2) although B5 was well-known for its story arc in the 90s, I’m willing to bet ti wasn’t the first (firsts usually aren’t).

    So back to “seasonal story arc shows” for now.

  22. Flat Earth Luddite says:

    Reason 4,365,984 why you never ever ever put Luddite in a position of authority:

    President Biden watched the vote while on vacation in Kiawah Island, S.C. (Wait! Coat, tie and pocket square on vacation?)×1300/2022/08/13/1660396120086.jpg

    Nah, not Luddite. Odds are I’m wearing my First Dog On The Moon t-shirt under an unbuttoned aloha shirt, shorts or sweats, and white Hurley’s with no socks. Tie? Buttoned Coat? Heck-fire, Ma, I can’t even find my suitcoat!

    OTOH, Cracker always has his shirt buttoned. So, vote for him!

    h/t to Axios AM for the coffee dribbling out of my nose after seeing the pic.

  23. Gustopher says:

    @Flat Earth Luddite: That picture is a photoshoppers dream.

    Here he is watching Transformers. He’s so happy with his Transformers cartoon.

  24. Jay L Gischer says:

    @CSK: I feel like I’ve missed something. What role would a mole or informer even had played in this?

    I mean, the Archives knew Trump had the material since forever, right? They’ve been back and forth on turning it over for a year or more.

  25. CSK says:

    @Jay L Gischer:
    Presumably the mole would know where the docs were stashed. Mar-a-Lago has a hundred-plus rooms. The FBI would still be searching if not for some guidance.

  26. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @CSK: No reason not to suspect that for the author of that maxim “friends” == “toadies and sycophants.”

  27. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Flat Earth Luddite: Absolutely! Yesterday, I was advocating (albeit indirectly) for shooting first and questioning second any other MAGA types who decide to try to invade FBI offices (and bad technique dude, kick the door open and spray random fire before anyone can react). Today, I’m qualified for office because I button my shirt. Kyul!

    Vote for me! I wear my shirt buttoned!

  28. MarkedMan says:

    @Jay L Gischer: Preet Bahara was talking about how important it was to be able to tell the judge you had “fresh” confirmation of the location

  29. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @CSK: And if there’s no mole, how are you going to sell a Deep State conspiracy to steal his stuff?

    Or is it plant evidence? It’s so hard to keep up because I don’t follow OAN and Newsmax.

  30. CSK says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:
    I don’t know. If the mole told them where the good stuff was hidden, why would the FBI have to plant good stuff?

    A quandary.

  31. gVOR08 says:

    IIRC DoJ subpoenaed security video from MaL. That may have provided sufficient inside information. Along with, perhaps, some cooperation from Secret Service. But if everybody wants to let Trump suspect there’s a snitch in his inner circle, that seems all to the good.

  32. Mimai says:

    @Flat Earth Luddite:
    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    Makes me wonder…

    Who would folks vote for (president and vice president) among the OTB community?

  33. CSK says:

    I’d like to declare myself COMPLETELY out of the running, thank you.

  34. Lost in Quebec says:


    Makes me wonder…

    Who would folks vote for (president and vice president) among the OTB community?

    Somebody would have to find me first.

  35. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @CSK: I’m not saying the mole is REAL; I’m just saying that a mole is an essential part of this kind of story. For either side. None of the MAGAts are going to want to admit that FG is so transparent that PARA was just able to KNOW that documents were missing. None of the other side wants a world where FG loyalists and toadies stay bought. That’s no fun at all. A mole ratting him out (especially over finances or lust) is much more fun.

  36. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Mimai: I would hope they wouldn’t. Then again, I hoped that people wouldn’t vote for FG, too. That said, my promise to my constituency (all one of him, it would appear) is “if nominated, I will not run, and if elected, I will not serve.” (Although I might be willing to take 4 years of Presidential salary and the pension as a “lovely parting gift.”)

  37. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Mimai: To fill in a detail though, both Luddite and I have been pointed out by generally misguided and remarkably unintelligent individuals as people who should be “put in charge.” One or the other of us as a candidate for high office is kind of a running joke for us.

    Frankly, I was so dissatisfied during my term as designated blamee at my first job that I’ve never sought any authority/management/supervisory positions.

  38. CSK says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:
    Indeed it is more fun, especially if the mole is someone like Ivanka or Melania.

  39. Jen says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    I’m not saying the mole is REAL; I’m just saying that a mole is an essential part of this kind of story.

    I’m sure that one of the lawyers here can shed more light on this than I, but I’ve repeatedly seen nat sec legal experts reiterate that in order to make the argument for the warrant, the affidavit had to have recent, fresh details for probable cause. This points to someone close by providing this information. Is it a certainty? No, but a lot of people with far more education on this topic than I appear convinced that this is how we got from subpoenas in June to a search warrant by August.

  40. Jen says:

    Incidentally, this piece from today’s NYT does not make things look very good from the former president’s side of things:

    At least one lawyer for former President Donald J. Trump signed a written statement in June asserting that all material marked as classified and held in boxes in a storage area at Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and club had been returned to the government, four people with knowledge of the document said.


    The existence of the signed declaration, which has not previously been reported, is a possible indication that Mr. Trump or his team were not fully forthcoming with federal investigators about the material.

    You don’t say? This is my shocked face. 😐

    According to two people briefed on the visit, Mr. Bratt and his team left with additional material marked classified, and around that time also obtained the written declaration from a Trump lawyer attesting that all the material marked classified in the boxes had been turned over.

    This appears to indicate that someone who knew about the statement attesting that everything had been turned over saw/heard something that indicated that it had NOT all been turned over, thus the speculation about an informant.

  41. CSK says:

    @Jen: @Jen:
    It would be funny if someone on his legal team happened to be the mole.

  42. Mister Bluster says:

    @Mimai:..Who would folks vote for

    Dead Kennedys
    (Go ahead and click on it. You’ll be glad you did.)

  43. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Flat Earth Luddite: @Just nutha ignint cracker: @Mimai: I don’t know, but it sure as hell wouldn’t be somebody who buttons up their shirt. That sounds like they have something to hide. 😉

  44. Sleeping Dog says:

    Even the National Review is having trouble accepting TFG’s declassification lie.

  45. CSK says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    OMG, the Trumpkins hate, hate, hate NR with a passion. It’s all Communist neocons there, you know.

  46. Jax says:

    The New York Post’s obsession with Hunter Biden is almost hilarious. Doesn’t matter what else is going on, there’s ALWAYS a headline referencing Hunter Biden. Today it’s “Ehrmagerd, Liz Cheney’s husband works for the law firm representing Hunter Biden!”

    Who the eff cares?!