Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Saturday, November 19, 2022
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67 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Yesterday in Lima a LATAM A320neo impacted a fire truck on the runway. Two people died on the truck and one was severely injured. All passengers and crew made it out alive, but 4 have been reported with severe injuries and 36 with minor ones.
The plane’s crew attempted to reject (abort) takeoff at high speed (very nearly at takeoff speed), but couldn’t stop nor avoid the truck on the runway.
I’m awaiting for latter reports, as we know earlier ones tend to be wrong, mistaken, or incomplete. Controllers in the airport’s tower do manage ground vehicles as well. Even in an emergency, fire and rescue vehicles need clearance to enter or cross a runway, precisely to avoid accidents like this one.
It’s also common in emergencies to stop all aircraft movements. I find it odd a plane got clearance to take off if there was an active emergency at the airport. So, I await the results of the investigation.
Where “best” is defined as “those who have no other choices.”
@OzarkHillbilly:
Those who knuckle under and kiss the Martian ass.
Taylor Swift:
Uh, actually we do know how much it means to you. According to the google it’s worth
With profits have traditionally been split 85% to artists and 15% to promoters, according to the video, but “artists have raised concert ticket price and now take a higher percentage of the profit.” I’d be more than a little surprised if Ms. Swift wasn’t getting at least 90%.
Yeah. Sure. Volunteers, freely giving of their time to help Chinese nationals renew their driver’s licenses. Which they will definitely need after being kidnapped and involuntarily repatriated back to China.
From The grotesque inequality embodied by Musk, Bezos and Zuckerberg is a threat to democracy in addition to the usual diatribes against the uber wealthy and a system that ensures their existence, comes this:
Same as it ever was.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Gee, do they have their own holding cells, jails, prosecutors, and judges?
That is insane.
@CSK: I’m sure they have their own holding cells, but prosecutors? Judges? That would imply a judicial system. I’m pretty sure what they have is a “Get out of line and get a serious smack down” system.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Latest is that the Buffalo area is over 5′ with more expected. Good times 🙁
@OzarkHillbilly:
Like a bullet in the back of the head?
@CSK: Nah, bullets cost money. There are cheaper ways to rid oneself of the troublesome.
@Sleeping Dog: It is insane to live in Buffalo.
Time to roll (to my eldest GD’s wrestling meet), have a good Saturday all.
Michael Cohen says that Ivanka and Jared are FBI/DOJ moles and that’s why they bailed out of the 2024 campaign.
Musk has put up a survey asking whether Trump should be let back on to Twitter or not. So far, the Fat Mango has 52% positive.
Some have thought there’s a link between this and the departure of Twitter’s ad coordinator. (Who left, was brought back again, and now seems to be on the road to departure again.) She probably told Musk that bringing back Donald Trump was an idiotic idea that would cause a lot of potential ad buyers to stay away.
And the Musk fan-bois are still continually burbling about How Much Of A Genius Musk Is.
Considering that the World Cup is this weekend and historically has been one of the times when Twitter has been heavily used, I suspect we may see the breakage of the system in a few short days.
@OzarkHillbilly: Snow melts. I’ll take it over a Hurricane or a flood any day
@CSK: Having lived adjacent to the counterintelligence community most of my military career- you would be very surprised how close rats live to foxes.
This would not at all surprise me…less for their Trump connection but more for their Saudi connection. They would not be “moles” in the movie sense Civilians understand. But they would provide certain types of information or plant some information in passing conversations with targets. They would almost certainly be unwitting if this is were true–meaning the actual “mole” would be talking to them vice them having direct contact with a case officer.
Sometimes their IS a rabbit hole…and it goes pretty deep. Cohen is probably partially right in that they sing or plant info in exchange for no scrutiny of their business dealings.
There’s always a game of some sort being played outside of the headlines.
@MarkedMan: The Hurricane for me. If you’re 25+ miles from the coast and at 30+ feet of elevation in a structure built to code in the last 20 years…you get high winds, drunk, and a 12-48 hour camping trip while they work to get the power restored.
All while NEVER being cold.
@Jim Brown 32:
Very interesting indeed. Doesn’t that position put Jared and Ivanka in a potentially precarious position?
@Jim Brown 32: There are certain things relating to taste that can’t be argued, and the preference for being hot rather than cold is one of them. I like being outdoors and since I live in the city will pick places I can walk to over ones I have to drive to. I truly can’t imagine why someone would prefer to be in a place that is too hot to walk around in (as is Baltimore in July and August) versus one that requires a hat and coat to go out. Putting on the hat and coat or taking them off: 30 seconds. Cooling down from near heat stroke, changing out of and washing the sweat soaked clothes and then showering and changing into something dry: not worth it. Stay indoors and drive everywhere. Soul dies a little more every day.
This is good:
http://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/11/democracys-dunkirk/672187/
Nichols has a way with words.
Had to Laugh!
Heard an ad on the radio this morning:
Smalls Meat Market
Nobody Beats Our Meat
@MarkedMan: I’ll be a bit more subtle – I’d rather be a little warm than a little cold. I have pretty severe Raynaud’s and my fingers will turn white even in 55-60 degrees (F) weather, even if I’m being reasonably active like walking. It’s uncomfortable – not numb. So I’d be happier if it was 85-90 degrees; I’ll just drink more water.
But go another 20+ degrees in either direction, and I’d prefer the cold one. I’ll either find a balance with gloves or my hands will go comfortably numb 🙂
Who leaked the Dobbs decision? John Roberts says the leak was a terrible breach of the Court’s integritude and he’s by gawd gonna find out who did it.
NYT reports that there was an alleged leak of the Hobby Lobby decision in 2014. A former holy roller activist claims he was told the outcome weeks before it was announced. The leaker? Justice Samuel Alito.
I’ve long suspected that Sammy Alito leaked Dobbs, and Roberts knows it.
@Kathy:
Nobody gets cleared for TO or landing with an emergency so it’s more likely it was a fire truck engaged in training, or the practice of running it around for a while so it’s tested and the fluids gotten up to temp, limbered up, if you will. During such ops the trucks are in contact with ground control, not air, so there is a potential for a miscommunication by ATC or the driver just got confused and rolled into an active runway by mistake.
@gVOR08:
But why would Alito leak Dobbs? He had to know it would boomerang back on Republicans.
@CSK:
Speculation at the time was that the leaker was attempting to box in Roberts, who was wavering on overturning Roe completely. He was trying to negotiate a decision that would further restrict abortion, but keep it legal.
@Jen:
Thanks; that’s interesting.
In any case, no matter his intent, Alito should have foreseen the consequences.
@CSK: I dont think it was obvious what the result of the Dibbs decision would be. Politicians who had enacted increasingly stringent anti-abortion laws in state after state viewed it as a political win.
@gVOR08:
It should also be noted, it appears that the “investigation” has been quietly shelved and that points right at Alito or Thomas.
@CSK: The decision backfired on them, not the leak. There was a lot of discussion at the time that the leak locked in the conservative vote. The theory was that if they backed down from the leaked opinion it would look like they’d bowed to public pressure. There may also have been a theory that tearing the bandaid off slowly with the leak would blunt the reaction to the actual announcement.
@dazedandconfused:
Reports thus far make no mention of an active emergency, or even a stand-by one. So there’s much we don’t know yet.
There must have been a mistake somewhere. But whether it was on the part of the controllers, the fire crews, or the LATAM cockpit crew, we don’t know yet.
@MarkedMan:
That was shortsighted if they thought places like NY, California, and Illinois would rejoice.
@gVOR08:
Didn’t work, did it?
@CSK: My experience is that conservatives don’t think in those terms about abortion. Standing for the truth is everything.
@CSK: @Just nutha: As always, failure of a plan is not evidence of absence of a plan. However, I was speculating as to motive, I won’t claim it’s a certainty Alito wanted to tear the Band-Aid off slowly. On the other hand, Alito is a true believer. “and faith is assurance and certainty about thing we do not see.” (A felicitous phrase by Brad DeLong I happened to read fifteen minutes ago and am cheerfully stealing.)
@gVOR08:
I’m not a true believer in anything, so that’s why I’m failing to grasp the power of the motive, not the motive itself.
@OzarkHillbilly: A few questions that none of the “reportage” on Taylor Swift has bothered to answer for me:
1. What % of all seats (across the entire tour) were available for pre-sale to the non-plebes?
2. Who, exactly, were the non-plebes who were permitted early access?
3. Who decided the answers to #1 and #2 — Swift, or Ticketmaster, or someone else?
Anyone know the answers to these?
Just in case anyone here cares about Attorney General in AZ:
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1594054420576186369
If there really are 5,749 left in Maricopa, the (R) guy would need about 55.5% of that number to overtake. However, that number is probably mostly provisional ballots, many of which will never be counted. So, I think, pretty unlikely the (R) guy overtakes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/19/kari-lake-maricopa-county-arizona/
snip
@gVOR08: Actually that phrase is usually attributed to St Paul. Letter to the Hebrews chapter 11.
Its the persistent inability to get a majority to ban abortion that convinced my sisters to quit believing in democracy. It’s a way for two wolves and one sheep to decide what’s for dinner, don’t ya know, by voting.
@gVOR08:
And additionally, faith is what you act on without regard for the consequences. Given that lots of conservatives are pegged, right or wrong, as evangelical Christians, it’s fully reasonable for conservatives to believe 1) that “the moral arc of the universe bends toward
justicewhat they want” and 2) that worrying about mere political consequences is somewhat beneath them (especially in the Dobbs issue, where Alito finally pushes “the ol’ pill across the goal line”).I’ll take this opportunity to remind us all of a passage from the annals of the imaginary sky daddy that doesn’t get considered often among my people, but shows up occasionally and may well be at the back of the leaker’s mind when mulling actions and consequences [emphasis added].
What is political consequence when you’re doing God’s work?
@MarkedMan: Well, hurricanes bring floods up here,and while snow melts, does it melt fast enough for my wife to get out of the drive?
I can guarantee you, 4′ of snow would bring us to a halt for a long time. Apparently it does the same in NY.
@charon: “Tim La Sota, an attorney for the Lake campaign who was present for the call, did not dispute Liddy’s characterization of the conversation but said he did not interpret Mehr’s comments as a threat.”
Well duh! Of course her attorney did not interpret the statement as a threat. Acknowledging it as a threat might make it actionable. “LA LA LA. I’M NOT LISTENING. NOOOOT LISTENING. I DON’T HEAR ANYTHING WRONG AT ALL. LA LA LA.”
For the record, IANAL and don’t know whether Mehr’s statement is a threat or should even be construed as one. I would have asked, for the sake of clarifying exactly what Mehr thought he was saying. But I don’t mind being seen as confrontational, either. Been there, done that. (Let me show you the souvenir beer cozy.)
@DrDaveT: Speaking as one who has not bought a concert ticket in 40 years, I’ll be honest: I have no idea what you are talking about.
@CSK: Not if they are unwitting. They’d never know the person they were talking to was an informant on the back end. And if the persons role was compromised, it’d just appear they were taken and lied to. You can never arouse the suspicion of an unwitting person which limits the type of information you try to get from them or their plant with them.
@JohnMc: Good pickup. Indeed close. But I’ll give DeLong credit for a paraphrase, intended or not, that captures the problem with faith, not a quote. He was talking about Hayekian faith in markets, not religion, although they’re very much the same.
@gVOR08:
“Faith is the substance of things hoped for, and the evidence of things unseen” is the actual Bible verse. One of Momma’s favorites.
Interesting problem.
Given what the Republican Party has become, this analysis isn’t that surprising, though I suspect that MTG is being used as an example. I’m not sure that she has followers/disciples/fanbruhs or whatever in the House. Or even allies.
test
@Jim Brown 32:
I don’t think that Cohen was implying they were unwitting, but rather that they were cooperating with the DOJ/FBI.
@CSK: Fake News. I don’t see them burning the Trump Empire down. They have too many bodies buried and, frankly, could never reproduce their current lifestyles legitimately.
@Jim Brown 32:
I defer to your expertise in these matters, but…Jared makes $25 million a year and a share of the profits from the 2 billion the Saudis invested with his firm. And Ivanka makes a pile from her various enterprises. So they have plenty of dough.
And is it possible the DOJ made a deal with them? They rat out Donald in exchange for their freedom?
Trump has been reinstated to Twitter.
@CSK:
Time for all Twitter user with a conscience to cancel their accounts.
@grumpy realist:
It also removes the point of Truth Social existing, and the finances there could lead that to get shut down quickly. Twitter might hang on long enough to kill Truth Social before Twitter collapses.
Could Mr. Muskrat end up killing two social networks within 6 months?
@Kathy: It would be more fun for every single person still on Twitter to start reporting his tweets for hate speech, millions at once. If he’s fired that many back end people, it’ll crash something.
Christ. What a conundrum.
I need to be on Twitter for clients, but I desperately want to cancel my account.
JFC, I am mad at Elon.
@Kathy:
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1594142638936133633
Me agree – quitting twitter surpassingly stupid idea that totally sucks.
@Kathy: @Jen: @charon:
Trump maintains he won’t return to Twitter. We shall see.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1594092633252454401
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1594050442656350213
Keep talking Lauren, you are an asset.
@CSK:
Anyone who believes a word Benito says deserves all that they get.
@charon:
I disagree. And when Fakebook allows El Cheeto back, following Twitter’s “precedent,” I will cancel that one too.
@Jim Brown 32: If they’re expecting to inherit anything from dear ol Dad, they’re not going to sustain their current lifestyle anyway. I suspect Trump Industries is leveraged to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1593592959123038209
@Kathy:
LOL you crack me up.
@CSK: yet another venue from which for me to pay no attention whatsoever to him.
@CSK: Jared and Ivanka make that sort of Money because of their proximity and access to Trump/Trump Inc. If he goes(and more importantly the money laundering operation goes), seriously, what incentive does anyone have to do business with them?
I simply don’t see it. Michael Cohen is doing podcasts and interviews with an occasional ghost written book for a living now. Major financial and prestige hit being out of the Trump inner circle. It’s a far steeper fall for then than it was for him
@Jim Brown 33: Dammit Jim! That last tequila sour turned you into Jim Brown 33. Aye Carumba