South Carolina Straw Poll
Erick Erickson informs us that “John McCain just lost his bid for the White House.” Why? He won the South Carolina straw poll:
Erickson argues that this narrow win over Giuliani and Hunter despite massive organizational advantages in South Carolina amounts to a loss.
Unfortunately, straw polls mean next to nothing. They are classic self-selected samples. Indeed, I didn’t even bother to vote in the CPAC straw poll.
As I reminded Stacy McCain earlier today, when he was touting Hunter’s numbers, Alan Keyes won the Alabama straw poll in 1999. He did not go on to win the presidency. Nor, indeed, did he win the 2000 Republican primary in Alabama.
Now, ultimately, I agree with Erick that McCain’s quest for the nomination is in deep trouble. But that’s because I have trouble finding any conservatives, broadly defined, who aren’t on McCain’s payroll that seem to like him.