Steady State Election
Despite all of the gaffes, jobs reports, and various twists and turns that so fascinate pundits, the race has remained essentially unchanged since April.
Curious to see whether this weekend’s announcement of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate had changed the dynamics of the race, I looked to RealClearPolitics for the latest polls. At first, it looked like something was there: the two polls taken since the announcement both showed Romney leading the race whereas all the previous polls showed Obama leading. Then, I saw that one of the polls was Rasmussen, which skews Republican, and the other is Gallup, which is a five-day rolling average of registered voters without a likely voter screen.
Clicking through to the Gallup page, though, what was more interesting is how phenomenally steady the race has been since Romney clinched the nomination:
I even downloaded the spreadsheet to get a micro-granular look at the daily polls. Since the April 11-15 average, Obama has never been above 50 and Romney has never been above 48; neither man has been below 2.
Despite all of the gaffes, jobs reports, and various twists and turns that so fascinate the TV talking heads, bloggers, and Twitterati, the race has remained within four points virtually every day and is usually within the margin of error.