Sunday Deadline for Greece

Via the BBC:   Greece debt crisis: Eurozone ‘gives Sunday debt deadline’

They had better get their act together (yes, I know) as their performance today was, well, underwhelming:  Greece turned up empty-handed to emergency bailout talks.

FILED UNDER: Europe, Quick Takes, World Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Well, if things do go as badly for Greece as I expect I’m pretty sure I know who they’re going to blame.

  2. grumpy realist says:

    “No, this time we really mean it–we;re going to kick you out!”

    Over and under on whether we’re just going to see another game of “extend and pretend”?

  3. Ron Beasley says:

    The Greek people are screwed regardless. It is interesting to see much of the rest of Europe turning on Angela Merkel.

  4. Modulo Myself says:

    How exactly does a country switch a currency on such short notice? Is there any precedent for a sovereign nation just changing currencies like this?

    Given how on top of things Syriza seems to be, I’m guessing they have a foolproof plan for it. so no worries.

  5. lounsbury says:

    @Ron Beasley: This would be occurring in which reality?

  6. lounsbury says:

    the FT has a useful insight

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/63bbb762-24c5-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html#ixzz3fFczy6te

    A former politician from Greece’s PanHellenic Socialist Movement pointed to the Syriza-led government’s roots in the country’s cynical student politics.

    “It has often looked as if the Syriza team was not committed to negotiating in good faith with the European partners,” the official said. “They were using the same tactics of confusion, reversals and deception familiar from their days of student politicking.”

    That rather sums up how Syriza got itself into such a complete hole. Or otherwise, what happens when one puts the hare-brained schemes of Leftist bloggerdom into actual practice.

  7. lounsbury says:

    @Modulo Myself: They would institute a parallel system of promissory notes that would become a defacto pseudo currency domestically. Given the relative closed nature of the Greek economy this could help them muddle along.

    It is virtually a given they’re going to see an effective banking system collapse given Syriza has all the planning skills of posturing Left bloggers and Uni radicals (that would actually be their real background in the end).

    Bloody catastrophe of gross incompetence, regardless of what one thinks of the foundations of their general PoV, but there you are.

    To take a quote: “what could have been conducted in collegial atmosphere is now f***ed into cocked hat”

  8. stonetools says:

    We’ll see what happens. The problem here is that any plan Syriza comes up with is going to include debt relief-and the Europeans have repeatedly rejected that, although the IMF and most economists agree that Greece can’t recover without debt relief. Unless the Germans bend on that, then any plan Syriza comes up with is going to be a nonstarter.
    If the expectation was that Syriza was going to produce some magical plan that didn’t include debt relief as a major feature and would therefore be acceptable to the EU, then you don’t know how this works. The calculations have already been done and the math hasn’t changed at all over the weekend. The only thing that has changed is that the Greeks have overwhelmingly rejected the EU plan-a plan that the IMF and most economists agree cannot work, and wouldn’t work even if Syriza was the most perfect negotiator in the history of international negotiations.
    What Syriza has done is to change the messenger. They’re hoping a kinder, gentler negotiator might turn the tide and make their proposals more acceptable. This seems doubtful, but I don’t think they have any other cards to play, other than preparing for Grexit.

  9. C. Clavin says:

    @lounsbury:

    what happens when one puts the hare-brained schemes of Leftist bloggerdom into actual practice.

    Which of course came right after so-called Conservative economic theories reduced the Greek GDP by 25% in 5 years.
    Maroon.

  10. Grumpy Realist says:

    @C. Clavin: so what? The Greeks STILL weren’t paying taxes.

    Just because the EU’s advice on austerity was silly doesn’t get the Greeks off the hook.

  11. C. Clavin says:

    @Grumpy Realist:

    Just because the EU’s advice on austerity was silly doesn’t get the Greeks off the hook.

    Hahaha…just because we crashed your economy doesn’t mean you don’t still owe us the vig…hahaha. Leave the guns, take the canoli.
    Fact is that Greece has been paying taxes and has cut spending. In addition when Greece asked for help chasing the billions that oligarchs have stashed offshore, the very banks that are putting the screws to them refused to help.
    No one is blameless here. Not even the Germans…who, by the way, had far more debt forgiven after the war they started. Greece has been f’ed up for centuries. Shame on the 6 month old Government for not fixing that.

  12. C. Clavin says:

    Greece turned up empty-handed to emergency bailout talks.

    I would have too. In fact…I’m far more shocked that anyone is surprised by this.
    So what happened? Shocker…Greece was given more time.
    You don’t stand up to Merkel and Germany and their tragically flawed economic policies by cow-towing to them.
    An agreement is, in fact, more likely today than it was yesterday…and it’s more likely to include serious debt restructuring, more reasonable budget goals, and more reasonable structural reforms.

  13. Modulo Myself says:

    @lounsbury:

    Of course, if a deal somehow does go through, Syriza will be hailed as geniuses.

  14. Modulo Myself says:

    The thing with debt relief is if it happens to Greece then it can happen anywhere. The world has to be vigilant against this pernicious idea. What if everybody in hock was cut some slack? It would be pure moral chaos. Cats and dogs, etc.

  15. C. Clavin says:
  16. C. Clavin says:
  17. Modulo Myself says:

    @C. Clavin:

    Lol–maybe Varoufakis being a game theory savant (whatever that actually is) worked to Greece’s benefit. They are going to have the last word and Germany will have to make the decision: accede to debt relief and questionable promises made by Syriza or let Greece exit and fairly or unfairly be responsible for whatever happens next.

  18. stonetools says:

    @Modulo Myself:

    Hey, remember Merkel is playing this situation like a political genius, according to HL 92. There’s no way the Greeks get out of this corner.
    Seems Tsipras decided to substitute a golden retriever for a pit bull as his primary negotiator. This letter sounds as reasonable as can be. It’s agreeing to institute structural reforms immediately and refers to debt relief in only veiled fashion. It ends with a declaration of their intent to remain in the Eurozone and to pay its debts. What’s not to like?
    I guess we will hear on THursday what’s not to like.

  19. C. Clavin says:

    @Modulo Myself:
    That’s not possible…remember…Greece doesn’t have a hand to play.

  20. Ben Wolf says:

    Syriza didn’t expect to win the referendum; Tsipras may not even have wanted to.

  21. Mikey says:

    @stonetools:

    I guess we will hear on THursday what’s not to like.

    It’ll be those details where the Devil hangs out.

    I’m sincerely hopeful on Greece’s behalf, but not quite as hopeful a deal will actually get done. But there might be enough desperation on both sides now for some significant compromises.

    But as you said…we’ll hear on Thursday…and then on Sunday.

  22. wr says:

    @lounsbury: “It is virtually a given they’re going to see an effective banking system collapse given Syriza has all the planning skills of posturing Left bloggers and Uni radicals (that would actually be their real background in the end).”

    Yes, if Greece could only return to the calm efficiency of the fascist dictatorship that ruled it in the 60s and 70s. I’m pretty sure the Euro banksters would be much happier that way — the top end of the capitalist system tends to prefer fascism to the messiness of democracy.

  23. lounsbury says:

    @wr:
    A wonderful straw man. By wonderful I am sad, pitiful and bankrupt recycling of empty Hard Left tropes.

    @Modulo Myself:
    Perhaps by ill-informed idealogical ignoramuses like yourself, more concerned with ideolgoical tribalism that analysis, but otherwise no.

    Syriza took a decent hand c. January and a potential to develop a supporting bloc among EU members and utterly pissed it away, turning sympathy into disgust and distrust.

    They were grossly incompetent from a negotiations stand point, losing key potential allies and burning bridges, gratuitously. Whatever concessions Greece might get at this point are being paid for via an economic collapse that could have been avoided as the economy circa January was doing better.

    Instead the cretins pointlessly unwound decent reforms (never mind the bloody “austerity” it’s the underlying market reforms back-sliding that ticked off non-Germany EU members), and engaged in equally pointless brinkmanship and school-boy Uni style politicking, losing key allies in EU and in Brussels bureaucracy.

    Whatever ill-informed and unlearned maundering on you provincial navelgazers do, this is rather a different problem than your bloody Republican party and mapping your stupid provincial analysis on to it is nothing more than ill-informed tribalism.

    Well, Greece gets to be your test case, Politicks Left Blogger Style. Stick it to the Man Duuuude.

  24. C. Clavin says:

    @lounsbury:
    wow…someone is very emotional this am.
    Greece has lost 25% of it’s GDP in the 5 years since the EZ inflicted austerity…but if only the new Government had kissed EZ arse 6 months ago…everything would have would have been fine. Laughable.

  25. Modulo Myself says:

    @C. Clavin:

    Lounsbury strikes me as a pretty smart English businessman who has a million of his own provincial prejudices working overtime. 125 years ago he would have been stuck in the Raj, a civil servant with a tolerably-unfaithful wife. Now he’s on OTB ranting about left bloggers.

  26. C. Clavin says:

    Tusk breaks ranks with Berlin:

    I just spoke with the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. I hope that today we will receive concrete and realistic proposals of reforms from Athens. If this happens, we will also need a parallel proposal from the creditors. The realistic proposal from Greece will have to be matched by an equally realistic proposal on debt sustainability from the creditors. Only then will we have a win-win situation. Otherwise, we will continue the lethargic dance we have been dancing for the past five months.

    It seems that Greece, both with “no hand to play” and practicing silly lefty-blogger politicks, is getting it done.

  27. stonetools says:

    @C. Clavin:

    Well, let’s see if Tsipras comes up with concrete, realistic proposals. I think one of the problems here is that people dislike Syriza for their style, and thus overlook the fact that they have a decent case . Syriza also gets blamed for prior Greek malfeasance, as in “Do you know the Greeks have been evading taxes since the days of Sulieman the Magnificent?”

    Syriza still does have a narrow path to a new and better deal, but they have to step really carefully. A point in their favor: the Germans seem to like the new guy:

    Germany’s EU commissioner says he’s optimistic that a new Greek finance minister and opposition parties’ backing for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras could smooth negotiations between Athens and its European creditors.

    Tsipras’ polarizing finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, resigned Monday and was replaced by Euclid Tsakalotos. Three opposition parties offered backing for Tsipras in the bailout negotiations.

    Commissioner Guenther Oettinger told Deutschlandfunk radio Tuesday that Tsakalotos “doesn’t have the same attitude as his predecessor. He knows the figures, the facts, he knows our reform proposals … and he knows that we are flexible.”

  28. Mikey says:

    @stonetools: Syriza also gets blamed for prior Greek malfeasance, as in “Do you know the Greeks have been evading taxes since the days of Sulieman the Magnificent?”

    I’m not blaming Syriza for that, I’m pointing it out as evidence Syriza has a very steep hill to climb when attempting to bring tax collections up to where they need to be. The rest of the Eurozone is very much aware of this and any realistic proposal by the Greek government is going to have to address it. At this point going after “oligarchs” is a fine start, but they will need to get down to the sole proprietors and independent professionals who make up 75% of the tax dodgers.

    That the largest single professional group among the latter is accountants will not be of any help…

  29. grumpy realist says:

    @stonetools: What the rest of Europe is saying: show us that you’re not going to piss away this chance the same way you’ve done with the previous bailouts.

  30. lounsbury says:

    @C. Clavin:
    No you stupid twit, Greece lost 25% of GDP because its bloody GDP was inflated by fraudelently induced brorrowing – and it suffered a financial collapse, while the Greek state was so completely corrupt as and ineffective as to be unable to respond.

    Blithering on about Eurozone Austerity when it was Eurozone Transfers that helped the bloody idiots not fall into a Zimbabwe style free fall is simple minded cretinism.

    Your empty minded Left Tribalism is rather pitiful.

  31. C. Clavin says:

    @lounsbury:
    Still haven’t been able to balance out your meds???

  32. C. Clavin says:

    WTF??? Greece looks like they are signing up for exactly what voters said no to last week.
    I don’t get it.

  33. lounsbury says:

    @C. Clavin:
    Weak and pitiful as a rejoinder, really find some other silly phrase, my dear ignorant provincial git.

    @C. Clavin:
    Of course you don’t, you’re an innumerate idiot.

    The bloody Greeks are bankrupt and without EU lifeline, “austerity” becomes 100 times worse. Contra your idiotic statements these past few postings that it can’t get worse, in reality it gets much, much worse without German, Dutch, Finish, Slovak rate payers plumping up for bailouts.

    Greek voters voting was an empty charade, rather like Americans voting for Germans to pay Belgians. Not their money.

  34. C. Clavin says:

    @lounsbury:

    Of course you don’t, you’re an innumerate idiot.

    fxck-off and die, you limey dolt.

  35. lounsbury says:

    @C. Clavin:
    So in short, an innumerate git who is also sore he was so massively, massively stupid.

  36. lounsbury says:

    Total capitulation, standing up to the Man….
    Leaked: Greece’s new economic reform proposal

    “a few things that stand out. First, none of the documents mentions debt relief. This was a major demand of Yanis Varoufakis, Tsakalotos’ predecessor. And while it is obliquely mentioned in Wednesday’s bailout request, there’s nothing in the documents sent to Brussels Thursday night that mentions the topic.

    Instead, what is interesting about both the Tsipras and Tsakalotos letters is their explicit mention of wanting to remain in the EU’s common currency.

    (http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2015/07/10/leaked-greeces-new-economic-reform-proposal/)
    Alphaville has a very good source inside of Brussels.

    Now if only a hard Left group of incompetent Left Blogger Activists not taken charge in January, Greece might have negotiated something that was rather less severe, achieving the same goals without having done permanent damage and impoverishment

    But according to the Leftist twats commenting here nothing could have been worse than “German austerity” etc.

    Gits.