Sunday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Sunday, August 21, 2022
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54 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Too f’n funny.
also AITA, I do believe means, “Am I The Asshole”. If I’m wrong, somebody can correct me.
Oooooopps…
You know where it’s going from there. Also too f’n funny.
It’s a loooong thread, but informative.
A succinct explanation of the quagmire Mad Vlad finds himself in: It’s someone else’s fault.
He sums it up with, “The veneer of civilization is this thin. It still exists – I haven’t been hanged yet. But holy moly, this is just crazy. The place has lost its mind.”
Trump set to ask court for ‘special master’ to review Mar-a-Lago evidence
Yeah, I am more than a little skeptical at this point that anything and everything they do is just for show.
@OzarkHillbilly: There was a piece in the NYT the other day about how extreme heat affects mental health.
I think Arizona is at the bleeding edge.
@Kathy: Thanx for that. I’m gonna see if I can get that book, it looks interesting.
@OzarkHillbilly:
That was painful to read. But worth it.
@Jen:
And heart health, too, I’ve read.
The Cards and the Diamondbacks played some baseball last night. At least, I think that’s what that was.
I’m not sure what to make of this opinion piece (no subscription needed), in which the writer argues that the widely held belief that Trump voters are incapable of changing their minds about him is incorrect. I, of all people, should have a favorable view because I’ve long held that 70-80% of any political movement are just along for the ride. But this article had the opposite of its intended effect on me: it has me reconsidering my beliefs about that 70-80%. The writer argues primarily by anecdotes, okay, but they are limited to a few (two?) people who ultimately haven’t changed their minds. Instead, they are disturbed by what they are reading about the FBI raid. And? Im sure we have all met someone in an abusive relationship who is frequently disturbed by their partners behavior but ultimately, and against all common sense, find ways to justify it and stick with the relationship.
The article goes on to essentially complain about the mean things people say in trying to understand the Trump-lovers motivations and then ends in some weird attempt to shame the anti-Trump crowd, by speculating we would feel different if the Trump fans changed their minds bout him. Well, yes. Yes we would.
Some good environmental news:
@MarkedMan:
I thought the piece was very interesting, but ultimately too forgiving of Trump supporters. I was particularly struck by the part in which the author speaks of those who claim that nothing would make them stop adoring their man. I’ve heard people like this. I’ve seen them. With a few, it may be just sheer perversity: “If everyone hates Trump, I’m going to love him.” There’s no real belief to it.
But others? Just look at Lucianne.com, if you can stomach it. You can get chastised for referring to Tfrump as “the former president.” Any criticism will get you banned.
@CSK: True. Yet I think that the people he mentioned probably aren’t Lucianne dead-enders. If there was a groundswell in the thoughtleaders that Trump had gone too far this time, or better yet, that age and frustration had finally caught up to him and he was not the man he used to be, I think they would abandon him. The key is that they wouldn’t be admitting they were wrong. It’s probably a good political tactic to give them that way out. Someone with more stomach than me could campaignby saying, “Whatever good Trump has done in the past, we can all see that he has lost a step. It’s always sad when a former giant, past his prime, insists on extending his career, embarrassing himself. And those so called friends who keep pushing him to do it are nothing but leaches, out for themselves and contemptuous of him behind his back.”
Israeli forces raid offices of six Palestinian human rights groups
Color me skeptical of Israel’s professed motives. On another Israel/Palestine front:
At least that is honest hostage taking.
@MarkedMan: An odd column indeed. A long, and partial list of events that could, but didn’t change Trumper minds, a couple of personal anecdotes about friends or relatives who might, but as you note, haven’t changed their minds about Trump, and the last half of the piece a Murc’s Law rant that it’s all liberals fault because we don’t give Trumpers credit for maybe, someday, hypothetically, changing their minds. I was going to write a critical comment, but a few thousand of our friends and neighbors already had, raising the obvious criticisms.
I think the only real question she raises is what’s the lag time? As with the pussy grabbing tape, how long does it take them to rationalize Trump’s theft of classified documents?
@MarkedMan:
I read the piece and was reminded of Oakland. The city of which Gertrude Stein said there was no there there?
There was a little discussion yesterday of Putin and his motives in Ukraine. He appears to be heavily influenced by Aleksandr Dugin. Dugin seems to me to be a combination of Victor Davis Hanson and Glenn Beck. Hanson, a classics professor and RW gadfly, is my go-to example of someone who’s read everything but learned nothing. Beck, of course, is looney tune Beck. Dugin is called Putin’s philosopher. It’s an open question whether Putin actually believes Dugin or just finds him convenient.
Dugin’s daughter, Darya Dugina, was killed in a car bombing yesterday. She was driving his car and it’s assumed Dugin was the target. Russia is, of course, blaming Ukraine. Ukraine is denying any involvement. Russian police are thoroughly investigating and one assumes they will eventually announce findings with their traditional professionalism and dedication to truth and justice.
@OzarkHillbilly:..baseball…At least, I think that’s what that was.
I call it Little League.
Get the pitcher back in the line up. It’s bad enough that the National League has forever altered the game for the worse by adopting the Designated Hitter.
But to start a runner on second base before a pitch is thrown in the top of the 10th inning…AAACK!
Isn’t that how T-Ball is played by 5 year olds?
@gVOR08: I saw that. I couldn’t help thinking that Putin is not above attacking the families of his supporters for political gain.
test
Marjorie Taylor Greene called for the FBI to be defunded in the wake of the Mar-a-Lago search. Michael Steele, former head of the RNC, called her a “shit for brains” and advised her to “for once try to be less stupid.”
That’s probably not possible, Mr. Steele, but I commend your sentiment.
Re: Dugin’s daughter…A significant number of people believe that Putin was responsible for the apartment bombings in 1999. We think of false-flags as crank territory, but with Putin all bets are off.
@Modulo Myself:
Of course in the run up to the Ukraine war, the US kept exposing Russian false flag operations. For Putin, false flag is SOP.
@Mister Bluster: I’m with you on the DH rule, but definitely in favor of starting the runner on second. They had their 9 regulation innings to settle this, so it’s time to give them a poke.
From yesterday’s discussion:
@Jay L Gischer:
Harry Benjamin? That’s a name I’ve not heard in a looooong time. I actually had to look it up to be sure. HB got turned into WPATH (who for the record can also bite my ass).
The idea of a delay in stages is for Cis comfort and based on the idea that Trans people are inherently going to experience massive regret and come to their senses and detransition. While there are people that bounce back and forth a couple of times, that’s usually because of a lack of family & social support.
Another problem with the HB model is that it would prevent people like me from transitioning. It wasn’t possible for me to socially transition prior to my medical transition. The stress of doing it that way would have hospitalized me.
@OzarkHillbilly: Looked like baseball to me. Teams don’t seem to be as good at cut-off throws as in the past and seemed a lot of hitting, but hitting’s been tweeked back and forth by ball design/construction for most of my lifetime.
@OzarkHillbilly: “… however, with the recent discovery of a successful Kemp’s ridley sea turtle hatching, the islands’ value to the region has been elevated,” said the wildlife and fisheries department’s secretary, Jack Montoucet.”
(In the spirit of Captain Planet villains): Aren’t there minerals or oil or something that we should be prospecting/exploring for on that island?
@MarkedMan: He’s a boomer. You don’t just push us out. You have to wait until we get bored and quit or die.
@CSK: Isn’t Steele the former head of the RNC because he’s a RINO now? She’s not any more likely to listen to him than she is to you. Beyond that, stupid is her brand, and she’s still fighting off a shot at the top spot from whoever wins in Alaska.
(And if Sarah Palin wins the election in November because of Ranked Choice Voting, how ironic will THAT be? https://nypost.com/2022/08/17/sarah-palin-advances-to-general-election-for-alaska-house-seat/)
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Oh, Steele has gone well beyond RINOhood and well into Communist devil turf. He endorsed Joe Biden in 2020.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Well, Sarah can join Marjorie and Lauren in competing for The Most Useless Ditz in Conress Award.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Here’s something you may enjoy, got to 5:45 to see the Angels manage to turn a double play into a total mess.
Well, my liver and I survived the Anniversary bash. A good time was had by all….nobody got in any fights (an old lady packing an oxygen tank did get her cord tripped up in her folding lawnchair), nobody tripped and fell into the firepit, and apparently we seriously over-estimated how much keg beer 150 of us old-timers can drink nowadays, my Dad’s all cozied up on the porch with the last keg. 😛
Interestingly enough, I spent a lot of time listening in on overheard conversations about politics, and not ONE SINGLE PERSON wants Trump to run again. These people were hard-core Trumper’s two years ago. Several of them are school board members in different locations, and apparently they’ve been exposed to enough far-right craziness at the school board meetings that they’re pulling back from the whole Trump movement. I thought it was pretty interesting, really….they’re still not gonna vote for Biden, but the Trump fever is breaking. About half of them voted for Cheney because they know Hageman personally and would never vote for her just because of the type of person she is.
@MarkedMan: Remember Bush Jr and the cult that surrounded him including kids being forced to pray to cardboard cut outs of him? The cultism was very real right up until Jr left office….
While Trump’s cult is arguably stronger than Jr’s there’s no doubt they’ll abandon Trump once he’s seen as a loser or someone prettier comes along..
@Matt:
But to the MAGAs, no one can be prettier than Trump. It’s not possible. Trump is perfect: a devoted husband, a devout Christian, a loving father, and the best president we’ve ever had.
@OzarkHillbilly: Seems clear Dugin himself was the target. But I’m sure it was Putin behind it — provide bad advice, get blown up in a false flag operation.
Pushing him out a window wouldn’t have been as useful politically.
@CSK: He;s the Chosen One.
I’d love to hear from @JohnSF and @Andy and any other intel-adjacent folk on the car bombing in Moscow.
It doesn’t feel right to be a Ukrainian op, though they are certainly Suspect #1. It feels more gangland, more Russian politics.
@Gustopher: If he’d been pushed out a window or given a polonium pill it would have been harder to blame the Ukrainians. I think it is entirely possible Dugin was the target but it would depend on his having outlived his usefulness. I don’t have near enough info to say the real target was one or the other.
@dazedandconfused: Holy shit. That whole top of the 9th was an absolute joke. It was like the entire team was in on the fix to throw the game.
@Michael Reynolds:
Strict amateur speculation: I’d focus on opportunity.
Namely, what security do the Dugins have, and who provides it. If they had state security of some sort, it wouldn’t be easy for Ukrainian operatives to plant a bomb in their car. It would be easier for Vlad’s forces, who are the security, to do so.
@MarkedMan:..poke…
If Major League Baseball wants games to end sooner they could rule a batter out if he hits a foul ball after two strikes.* Or maybe eliminate 2nd base and have the hitter run from first to third over the pitchers mound. That would save time wouldn’t it. After all now “take your base” after no pitches saves all of one minute every 2.6 games (Source). Such a great idea.
It’s beyond me why any True Baseball Fan™ wants the game to end sooner. The more innings played the more value you get for the price of a ticket.
The best game I ever saw on TV was at the local Buffalo Wild Wings Saturday, April 17, 2010. New York Mets at Saint Louis Cardinals. Day game that went 20 innings. 6hrs. 53min. The first run did not score till the top of the 19th inning. Cardinals tied the game in the bottom of the 19th and the Mets scored a run in the top of the 20th inning that proved to be the winning tally.
Sometime around the 14th or 15th inning a couple came in and sat at the table next to mine.
“We were at that game and listened to it on the radio in the car on the way back (a two hour drive). We figured we’d come in here and get something to eat and watch the rest of the game.”
They left as the 18th inning started and went home.
Y’all just don’t realize that when baseball is over, summer is over.
Who needs that?
*Brandon Belt hit 16 foul balls in a 13 minute plate appearance in 2018. What a waste of time!
@Mister Bluster: Like you, I am not a fan of all these gimmicks to “speed up” the game. The pace is a big part of why I love baseball.
@Beth: “The idea of a delay in stages is for Cis comfort and based on the idea that Trans people are inherently going to experience massive regret and come to their senses and detransition. ”
This sounds a lot like the argument from the forced-birthers that women must be prevented from having abortions because many of them will regret it later, apparently because their little heads just aren’t capable of thinking such a thing through.. They are all just the soul of generosity…
@Just nutha ignint cracker: “: Isn’t Steele the former head of the RNC because he’s a RINO now? ”
No, that’s because he’s Black. The RINO thing came after he was defenestrated for the offense of not being white enough.
@Beth: I believe you when you say you couldn’t transition in stages. My daughter did transition in stages, and didn’t really have a problem with it, per se.
People are different, I guess.
So do you think that the person who thinks they are trans but isn’t is a myth – they don’t exist?
@Michael Reynolds:
Heh, I’m hardly “intel adjacent”.
Just run across a few people who were over the years; and they were military analysts/planners, not the “Funny People” (the MI’s) or suchlike.
Also, read a lot of history, and hardly any spy novels. 😉
As to who did the hit: f’ knows.
Moscow politics is a snake pit at the best of times.
Few Ukrainians will shed many tears over Dugina, still less over her father, had he been killed.
But I doubt Ukraine would risk losing use of a Moscow undercover team on a minor target.
Dugin is not that close to the centre of power, if I’m reading the runes right.
More just a yappy ideologue (and as an ideologue, perhaps not trusted by the cynical power mongers of the inner circle)
Prigozhin, Patrushev, Bortnikov, Naryshkin, Zolotov, Sechin or the Rotenbergs would be a different matter.
Perhaps worth compromising a capability.
But they are hard targets.
If forced to bet, my guess would be Dugin got to close to some “ultra nationalists” in the siloviki who’ve been criticising Putin for being too timid, and surrounded by incompetents.
So a message was sent.
But, it’s just a guess.
Probably wrong again.
But anyway, they’ll now try to blame Ukraine for it: win/win in the Kremlin playbook.
@Jay L Gischer:
Oh, there are definitely stages, it’s just that we all don’t move through them the same way, same order, or same time. The idea that there is an absolute specific prescribed order of the stages is nonsense. I just met someone who intends to fully socially transition but not medically transition. I couldn’t do that. I joke with people that my transition actually took close to 10 years. It was lots of tiny tiny steps punctuated by giant leaps.
As for the person who thinks they are Trans, but isn’t, I generally think that’s a myth. For one, I’m fairly confident that anyone who takes inappropriate cross gender hormones and isn’t the target gender they will melt down rapidly. For example, if we gave Daddy Reynolds a starter dose of Estrogen for a week, by Friday he’ll be ready to jump out a window. Me, on the other hand felt normal for the first time in my life.
Number two, pre-transition Trans people tend to think about gender and specifically being Trans, ALOT. Dysphoria is a hurricane scream that you have to do an exhausting amount of work to silence.
The small group of people that think they are Trans, but not, are almost certainly some flavor of non-binary or GNC and just didn’t have the terms/labels for it.
Ah, the end of summer calory-a-thon…
https://images.app.goo.gl/kK9sWch3YikBZ4rV6
@Beth:
I’m curious as to whether part of that is an age thing. Adults are very set in their ways, have very established lives, etc.
Kids… kids are going through countless changes anyway, so they may just roll with it better.
I would expect a lot of non-binary folks just get their gender wrong for a bit — both those who identify as non-binary and are just the wrong binary, and a number who think they are trans but are non-binary.
We are brought up expecting a gender binary, and it is likely hard to figure out where you fit when you don’t have all the words and concepts as “real”.
It took me most of my teen years to figure out that crushes on boys weren’t just a phase (they were followed by crushes on girls, it could have been a phase! And then another one! And another!) and that bi was really a thing one could be. It was the 80s, we didn’t even have bi people then, other than women in porn who were clearly faking it.
I know a couple of people who just rounded up to gay, but who are attracted to members of the opposite sex. (Part of my preference simply for “queer” now is just that it’s an umbrella term that rules out nothing and I’ve decided that a label isn’t very important to me)
If that happens with attraction, I expect it to happen with gender as well. Especially with younger folks who are still figuring out everything about themselves.
How this translates into treatment… I don’t know, I think phases makes logical sense, and using blockers to get a little more time.
@Gustopher:
That could be. For me I think it was a truma thing. I generally need a lot of training wheels on things before I can do something. Lol, one of the last people I came out to right before my social transition was a cis woman who loudly exclaimed, “I was wondering when you were going to tell me why you have boobs!’
I agree with this whole heartedly.
Phases or steps do make a lot of sense and I’m not advocating against them. What I am (and will) advocate against is a rigid framework that doesn’t allow you to proceed unless you satisfy some external gatekeeper. “Oh, you can have hormones, but only when you perform woman to my satisfaction for two years. Oh, you like football, guess that means you’re not actually a woman, no meds for you!”
I agree with this too. The Bi and Trans labels are important for me, but it’s nice to have a catch-all for a bunch of stuff that is either interconnected or doesn’t fit. Lol, as hard as pretty much everything has been to accept about myself, being Bi was the easiest. It was just, “oh, I like this, and I like this too!” Frankly, its a superpower.
@wr: Point made!