Outside the Beltway

The election is now fifty-six days away and, while the race is tighter than it has been, it’s still one in which Hillary Clinton has seemingly all the advantages.

It’s the traditional start of the campaign season, and the race for President is getting close, at least at the national level.

With ten weeks to go ,there’s been some tightening in the polls but Hillary Clinton continues to maintain a commanding lead in the race for the White House.

Republican hopes that Wisconsin might go Republican this year seem to be slipping away.

While a Clinton landslide seems obvious after the dumpster fire of a Republican convention, the race is close.

The May Jobs Report was bad all-around. The question is whether this will come to be seen as an anomaly or the beginning of a worrisome trend.

In case anyone noticed: I got the Trump nomination wrong.

Several recent polls have shown the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tightening, but it likely means far less than the media hype makes it sound like.

As we begin to head into General Election season, a few things to remember about the avalanche of polls to come.

Tonight’s Nevada Caucuses could be as chaotic as the floor of a Vegas casino, but Donald Trump seems to be in position to score another win.

Marco Rubio was the man in the cross hairs in last night’s Republican debate.

The Fifth Republican Debate, and the last of 2015, was marked by expected clashes between the candidates, and one that never happened.

Donald Trump continues to have a commanding lead in the Granite State, but it’s unclear whether he can translate poll support into votes when the primary rolls around.

Donald Trump just keeps leading in the polls, and Republicans keep arguing that it can’t last.

Chris Christie has gotten the endorsement of the biggest newspaper in New Hampshire, but it’s not clear that this will have any impact on the race.

Polls are quite useful in the right circumstances, but knowledge, complexity, and timing all have to be taken into account in determining what they are telling us.

The GOP “establishment” isn’t planning to take on Donald Trump directly and instead relying on Republican primary voters to come to their senses. They may be waiting for something that will never happen.

Nate Silver reminds us all that, even when it comes to Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s much earlier than we think, and that voters are still likely to change their minds.

Donald Trump was on Saturday Night Live last night. It wasn’t even remotely funny.

To the surprise of few, Bill Simmons’ site didn’t long survive his departure.

Donald Trump is leading in Iowa, and very few things make sense anymore.

Pundits and political scientists agree that, if the 2016 presidential election were today, we’d have a much better idea who would win.

Also: charting the rightward shift in the GOP.

Trying to explain one of the biggest surprises of Election Night 2014.

What happened Tuesday? And what does it tell us about 2016?

The results of the 2014 midterms should teach us some lessons about how to handle and evaluate polling.

The odds say that the GOP will end up with a Senate majority in the 114th Congress when all the votes are counted, but if it doesn’t happen then there’s likely to be quite a battle inside the GOP.

Things are looking good for the GOP to take over the Senate, but there are still several right races that could tip the balance one way or the other.

Illogic and fear from Mr. Huckabee.

Individual polls are likely to be volatile, so don’t pay too much attention to them.

Is former Senator Larry Pressler surging in his Independent bid to win back his old Senate seat?

Could Alison Lundergran Grimes be surging? Maybe, but we’ll need more evidence to be sure.

Two weeks after it seemed to be tightening, there are signs the battle for control of the Senate may be moving in the GOP’s direction.

Republicans still have an advantage, but Democrats seem to be holding their own in the battle for Senate control.

One analyst thinks that the predictions of a Republican Senate in 2014 are wildly optimistic.

The GOP has a good chance of taking the Senate in 2014, but it will be by a narrow margin.

Signs continue to suggest that a GOP Senate takeover is likely.

It might not be pretty.

New York has joined nine other states and the District of Columbia to vote to for an Electoral College bypass.

For now at least, Republicans are far more enthusiastic about voting in November than Democrats. That could be decisive.

Have gubernatorial elections become more nationalized?

Republican leaders continue to say stupid things. They may still retake the Senate in November.

Wonkblog’s founder is leaving the Washington Post to start a new media outlet of his own.

It’s no wonder there’s no compromise in Congress.

The GOP’s approval numbers have fallen like a stone, but it’s unclear whether this will matter in 2014.

Apparently, there was a culture clash at the Grey Lady.