Red and Blue States Aren’t Permanent

The margins for 2024 are likely to be slim. But that hides a larger story.

Leadership Battles in the GOP

Losing has a way of creating intraparty strife.

Making Sense of the Election

Parsing the results thus far.

Democratic Ratfucking Worked

Boosting weak candidates in the Republican primaries paid off.

2022 Won’t Be Another 1866

Hope is not a COA.

The Emerging Democratic Majority at 20

How well has the famous thesis fared?

CNN’s Centrist Gambit

What does objectivity mean in the Trump era?

Nonhierarchical Parties and the Problems of Candidate Selection

American parties are coordination problems with shared branding.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a Medal of Valor ceremony, Monday, May 16, 2022, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a Medal of Valor ceremony, Monday, May 16, 2022, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

The News is Bad for Biden

The nature of American political reporting distorts our perception of reality.

The Absurdity of the Hunter Biden Story

He met with people. And, get this, with his father!

64 Percent of Democrats Want Biden Replaced in 2024

With record-low poll numbers, the grass roots wants someone new on the ticket next time.

Fixing the Primary Problem

Could Alaska point the way to a solution?

On Perceptions and Crime

Some thoughts.

More Primary Examples: the PA GOP Governor’s Race

An ongoing series of observations.

Podcast Recommendation (Plus: More on US Democracy)

Ezra Klein discusses the dynamics of American conservatism in historical perspective. Plus, he helps illustrate a key problem that we have in thinking about American politics (IMHO).

On American Parties

More on primaries with a foray into Madison and the general politics of power-seekers and incentives.

Another Example of Primaries in Action

The Ohio GOP Senate contest.

An Extreme Example of the Problem with Primaries

Nobody is keeping the gate.

The Road to Here (and the Rocky Road Ahead)

The role of American political institutions.

New York’s Gerrymandering Disarmament

When doing the right thing is the wrong thing.

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A Lament and The Reality of Politics

A illustration from the Senate race in Georgia.

The free high-resolution photo of white, game, play, male, recreation, think, black, thoughtful, board game, fun, king, figure, sports, chess, queen, pawn, chessboard, games, champion, practice, challenge, stick, serious, tactics, win, schedule, strategic, clever, keeps, the player, checkerboard, the winner of the, indoor games and sports, tabletop game, the strategy, the championship, prevx, the cunning , taken with an NIKON D700 03/09 2017 The picture taken with 105.0mm, f/5.6s, 1/200s, ISO 100 The free high-resolution photo of white, game, play, male, recreation, think, black, thoughtful, board game, fun, king, figure, sports, chess, queen, pawn, chessboard, games, champion, practice, challenge, stick, serious, tactics, win, schedule, strategic, clever, keeps, the player, checkerboard, the winner of the, indoor games and sports, tabletop game, the strategy, the championship, prevx, the cunning , taken with an NIKON D700 03/09 2017 The picture taken with 105.0mm, f/5.6s, 1/200s, ISO 100

Institutions Matter, French Edition

How rules shape the game.

The Flawed Nature of Representation in the US

Our representation problems are far, far more about structure than they are about the messaging of the parties.

Santa’s a Socialist

And other tales from the AK special election.

Multiparty Presidentialism

No, presidentialism does not lock us into two parties.

On Respect and SCOTUS

The Court is out of balance–and it is a design flaw.

America’s Four Parties

Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans truly represent most Americans. Fixing that is exceedingly unlikely.

Elections with Foregone Conclusions

Greatest democracy in the world, right?

People Moving for Politics?

It seems that some Americans are relocating to be with people who share their social and cultural views.

A Note on Primary Elections

Data from Texas underscore a frequent point about primaries.

Normalizing Political Violence

In their censure of Cheney and Kinzinger the GOP wants to rewrite history.

On Moderate Legislative Power and Other Political Dreams

A bloc of moderates is not coming to a Senate near you.

Why Are Biden’s Polls So Awful?

A pretty good President has numbers comparable to his historically bad predecessor.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the passing of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Tuesday, August 10, 2021, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the passing of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Tuesday, August 10, 2021, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

Breaking: Country Polarized

And Biden approval down.

Speaking of Moderates and Independents…

More on self-identification and partisan ID.

Partisan ID in the United States

Gallup has the 2021 numbers.

On the Number of Parties, Part 3: More Sophisticated Counting

The effective number of parties.

On the Number of Parties: Basic Counting, Part 2

This time: some multi-party examples.

On the Number of Parties: Basic Counting, Part 1

Counting is not necessarily as straightforward as it may seem.

Unilateral Disarmament on Gerrymandering

Democrats and Republicans are playing by different rules.

Trump, Electoral Fraud Lies, and the Primaries

Our system and the shaping of the GOP’s future.

Is Autocracy Really Winning?

A depressing magazine piece argues it is.

Goodbye to Swing Districts?

A largely mythical beast may become even more rare.

Thoughts on Partisan Cues and Filters

Thoughts on how we think.

Vaccines v. Monoclonal Antibodies

The difference is politics, not reason.

More on Standing

The CA Recall

The system is not defensible.

The Radicalization of Ross Douthat

An interesting podcast conversation.

Nicholas Kristof Is Exploring a Run for Oregon Governor

The two-time Pulitzer winner is considering a career change.