Texas In Play If Sarah Palin Is The Nominee?

It’s far too early for polls to be predictive of a final outcome, of course, but this poll from Texas is a pretty good reflection of the doubts about Palin outside of her core group of supporters:

There are vast differences in how the various different potential GOP contenders fare against Barack Obama in Texas. Mike Huckabee is very popular in the state and would defeat Obama by 16 points, a more lopsided victory than John McCain had there in 2008. Mitt Romney is also pretty well liked and has a 7 point advantage over the President in an early hypothetical contest, a closer margin than the state had last time around but still a pretty healthy lead. A plurality of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich but he would lead Obama by a 5 point margin nonetheless. It’s a whole different story with Palin though. A majority of Texas voters have an unfavorable opinion of her and she leads the President by just a single point in a hypothetical contest.

(…)

Texas ought to stay safely in the GOP column for 2012 but with a weak nominee Obama would have a chance and these numbers are further confirmation that you’re probably talking about 400+ electoral votes for the President next year if his opponent is Sarah Palin.

This, I think, this would be the reason you’re seeing establishment Republicans starting to hedge their bets when it comes to Sarah Palin. They want to win and, as this chart shows, it seems less and less likely that she has any chance of winning:

FILED UNDER: Barack Obama, Campaign 2012, Politicians, Quick Takes, Sarah Palin, US Politics
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020.

Comments

  1. DMan says:

    Before others brush this off as simply another anti-Palin post, it’s important to note the significance of this for Republican voters. Sarah Palin is a top contender for the GOP nomination right now, and the fact that Texas would be in play in the general should she win should demonstrate the crippling effect Palin could have on the party. This is big news and should give pause to those Palin supporters who see the GOP as their only option to oppose Democratic control. It’s becoming more and more clear that a serious Republican party cannot exist with Sarah Palin at the helms. Democrats would probably rather the Republican electorate not figure this out.

  2. PJ says:

    A lot of people seem to like to compare the presidencies of Obama and Reagan, how their approval polls look the same and so on.

    But Palin can’t be Mondale, can she?

    (I would be fun, but I would be very, very suprised if Palin only wins one state… She obviously not going to win DC…)

  3. Patrick T. McGuire says:

    So much for the 30 day moratorium on reporting news about Palin, huh?

  4. tom p says:

    >>>So much for the 30 day moratorium on reporting news about Palin, huh?<<<

    imposed by who?

  5. Smooth Jazz says:

    “It’s far too early for polls to be predictive of a final outcome, of course, but this poll from Texas is a pretty good reflection of the doubts about Palin outside of her core group of supporters:”

    Whoppee do, Another hit piece from the left wing peanut gallery – based on a poll from DailyKOS pollster no less. Hey Dude, I have news for you: PPP is a Liberal pollster who packs their samples with Dems to get a desired result and push a meme, and gullible KoolAid drinkers like you just get taken in for a ride. Do you have a poll other than from DailyKOS that shows the same result for TX???

    You keep saying you are not a Lib but if it walks like a Duck, it IS a duck. You may not be crass and outrageous as TBogg & the typical Huffington Post Palin Hater, but your reliance on DailyKOS polls tells me you are a Lib to your fingertips. Btw: Repub voters are not going to take self serving advice from left wing blogs in the Wash DC/NY echo chamber.

  6. PJ says:

    “PPP is a Liberal pollster who packs their samples with Dems to get a desired result and push a meme, and gullible KoolAid drinkers like you just get taken in for a ride.”

    How do you explain that in the same poll, Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich all would do a lot better against Obama than Palin?

    It’s also the same poll that showed that the Democrats would not be able to pick up Hutchison Senate seat.

    Did PPP super fudge it to just make Palin look really bad? Or would the three other probably GOP candidates be even better in a real poll?

    Anyway, I do hope you will work hard to elect Palin as the next GOP presidential candidate.

    Go Mondale!