The Final Numbers From New Hampshire, And A Prediction
The Romney campaign is touting the results of the final Suffolk University tracking poll, which shows their candidate up four points over night to 37%, with Ron Paul at 18%, Jon Huntsman at 16%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%. There’s also a new Rasmussen poll this morning that shows Romney at 39%, Paul at 17%, Huntsman at 15%, Santorum at 13%, Gingrich at 12% and Perry at 1%
This leaves the final RealClearPolitics polling chart looking like this:
Looking at the polling charts from 2008, available at the link, we find that the final averages underestimated the actual results by a few percentages points, most likely because they weren’t fully reflecting the last minute surge of voters to McCain. Similarly, there seems to be some consensus among observers in the Granite State that a last minute boost for Jon Huntsman could push him past Ron Paul into second place.
With that in mind, here’s my prediction of how things will turn out tonight:
- Mitt Romney — 39%
- Jon Huntsman — 19%
- Ron Paul — 16%
- Newt Gingrich — 12%
- Rick Santorum — 11%
- Perry/Roemer/Others — 3%
I’m also predicting that Buddy Roemer will get more raw votes than Rick Perry. We’ll see how it all turns out in about ten hours or so.
I’ll take Romney at 38%
Paul at 19%
and Huntsman at 17%
We’ll see where Romney ends up…but if you can’t pull 40% in what is essentially a home state contest and you are the presumptive nominee…that could signal a problem with enthusiasm.
2008 results:
McCain 37%
Romney 31%
And FWIW…
Clinton 39%
Obama 36%
As goes Dixville Notch so goes New Hampshire? I wonder if that’s actually been the case historically?
If your interpretation of Huntsman is “Romney without the embarrassing baggage” and plus foreign policy experience, I’m not sure whether it points to weakness or strength for Romney in a general election.
I was talking to a friend of mine this weekend about this primary and we came to the same conclusion. Who ever wins this primary is the most liberal guy in the field. NH is a very liberal place therefore they are going to want the most liberal candidate even if its on the Republican side.
Therefore: No one else needs to vote for the winner tonight in the rest of the primaries.
Just for kicks I’ll go with Doug’s predictions, except that Gingrich and Santorum will be reversed.
I think Santorum, as a non-Southerner, could do a bit better than Huckabee’s 11% in the 2008 primaries and I think Gingrich’s momentum is stalled at best or creeping downward at worst.
NH is a very liberal place
What?
New Hampshire (motto: Live Free or Die) is not overly liberal. I wouldn’t call it a conservative bastion either, being in New England and all, but it is the most conservative state in the area.
I wonder if your barometer for “conservative” means “socially conservative.” From what I can tell, NH doesn’t tend to go in for hardcore SoCon stuff, whereas they’re up for economic conservatism. The ‘ole fiscally conservative/socially liberal combination.
I have to wonder at someone who looks at New Hampshire and sees “very liberal state.” What qualifies as properly conservative to you?
This is going to suck. The show’s going to end up being canceled.
From what I can tell, NH doesn’t tend to go in for hardcore SoCon stuff, whereas they’re up for economic conservatism.
Then what in hell explains Pat Buchanan’s surprise win over Bob Dole there in 1996?
@Rob in CT:
I’m with you. A considerable portion of the population of NH is comprised of tax refugees from Massachusetts. Fiscally conservative (at least in the sense that they don’t want to pay taxes), socially liberal.