Monday, May 8, 2006
John McIntyre has an interesting analysis of the electoral map, showing a handful of swing states out West trending Democratic and a few in the Midwest trending Republican.
With regard to McIntyre’s analysis of Minnesota’s 2002 election cycle, though I cheerfully agree that Minnesota is trending ‘right”, I would disagree over the import of Gov. Pawlenty’s and Sen Coleman’s victories.
Pawlenty indeed “won a tough three-way race for Governor”. But the other two legs of that stool were Democrats. Combined, the two Dems polled 56%. Pawlenty only garnered 44%.
And Norm Coleman didn’t beat Walter Mondale. He beat the deceased Paul Wellstone. Barely. Mondale didn’t have the time to mount a campaign and didn’t appeal politically to Wellstone voters, who were very angry and disillusioned that the Minnesota Democratic Party establishment put in a long time party “hack” ringer to replace the maverick outsider Wellstone.
More telling on Minnesota trending ‘right’ was the previous election of independent (and populist libertarian) Jesse Venture, who beat two party hacks for Governor in the previous gubernatorial election.
And who were those hacks?
Skip Humphrey, scion of the late Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and now-Senator Norm Coleman.
Most polls show Attorney General Mike Hatch beating Pawlenty for reelection and Amy Klobuchar beating Mark Kennedy for the Senate seat. Who knows what will happen, but I wouldn’t break out the Republican banner for Minnesota just yet.
The polls I have seen have only a few point spread. 48-42 for the governors race; 45-42 for the senate.
Most political analysis, the kind that relies on more than just polling numbers, lean Republican on these two races.
I’d hang on to that Democratic banner a little tighter. It might blow away in the wind.
Make a one-time donation