The Campaign Spot on National Review Online
Jim Geraghty sees some hope for McCain in Pennsylvania:
Mason Dixon’s poll putting McCain within 4 percent in Pennsylvania was crazy talk, right? Had to be an outlier, right? Well, Strategic Vision puts Obama’s lead at 5 percent. (I can only imagine the hate mail they’re going to get.) Rasmussen had the margin at 13 percent in early October, and put Obama’s lead at 7 percent on Monday.
I don’t know if the state is tightening enough to put McCain over the top. But right now, putting resources in that state doesn’t look like such a wild gamble at all.
Pennsylvania is Team McCain’s only hope for snagging a significant Blue State — i.e., one that went for Kerry or Gore — and overcome some sure losses in Red States. Unfortunately, Mason Dixon and Rasmussen are looking like outliers. Here’s the RCP summary of all the major polls in the Keystone State commissioned over the last week or so:
No poll since April has shown a McCain lead and no polls since September has shown a tie. And the trend is decidedly in Obama’s direction.
Putting resources into Pennsylvania is likely McCain’s best shot. It’s decidedly a long shot, though.
(1) Strategic Vision is a GOP-partisan firm, which is why RCP won’t aggregate them in their PA average.
(2) Rasmussen’s sample size is the smallest in that poll, with a correspondingly high margin of error. Also, if I’m not mistaken, Rasmussen doesn’t poll cell phones.
I’m sure that McCain’s firmed up his support in PA, but except for the suspect SV poll, Obama’s support seems pretty steady … and almost certainly over 50%.