The World of 2025
Thomas Fingar, the chair of the National Intelligence Council, spoke to the Atlantic Council last night on the release of “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” He and his team project nearly two decades into the future in order to “stimulate strategic thinking” among U.S. policymakers during this period of transition between presidential administrations. This undertaking is useful, as Council president Fred Kempe noted, “in a town that doesn’t tend to look past the current news cycle.”
The intelligence community, think tanks, and others have a notoriously poor track record when trying to project even a few years ahead, so this is, in one sense, an exercise in futility. As I argue in my New Atlanticist piece “Predicting the Future is Hard – And Necessary,” though, we don’t have much choice but to try.
In the first of many follow-up pieces, “U.S. Dominance Ending,” I take a look at the NIC’s forecast that the era of United States unipolarity will end, replaced by a multipolar world in which China, India, and Russia have much more influence.