Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, September 8, 2022
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81 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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From CNN–
US soldier kicked out of Army after FBI says he enlisted to become better at killing Black people
The world is full of nuts.
There was a poll out yesterday, that DeSantis’ lead over Christ was down to 3%, about the margin of error. There is a reason that Romney didn’t run for reelection as MA gov, when he planned to run for Prez. The risk of losing is real and even underperforming expectations can seriously damage a candidates chances. Here’s hoping that DeSantis suffers that fate. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
In Voter Fraud, Penalties Often Depend on Who’s Voting
No surprises as to who gets off and who faces stiff penalties. what is amazing is how little fraud there is, 1.5 cases on average per state. Most states treat individual fraud as a minor crime, but a few, and you can guess which ones… They also treat the offenders much differently.
@Lost in Quebec:
I do love the fact that his first name is Killian.
There are two good articles in http://www.theatlantic.com today:
“Trump Is Caught in a Double Bind,” by David A. Graham
“The GOP’s Dominant Faction Isn’t Conservative Anymore. It’s Authoritarian,” by Peter Wehner
The mainstream pundits, commentators, and media don’t want to touch this subject but Christian nationalism is, in my opinion, at the core of the danger to democracy that everyone is currently wringing their hands over.
Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn: Government insider to holy warrior
And the religious liberty scam goes on:
HIV PrEP coverage violates religious freedom
@Scott:
Here’s what Twisted Sister’s Dee Snider has to say about this:
@Mikey: Hope that was accompanied by a cease and desist letter or a lawsuit.
@Scott: Snider has issued cease-and-desist letters, but of course the MAGA people consider themselves entitled to whatever so they just ignore him.
@Scott: Biden needs to recall General Flynn and submit him to a military tribunal. I don’t say this lightly – he appears to be a traitor to his nation.
Queen Elizabeth II is “under medical supervision” at Balmoral, and all her children have gone there to be with her.
Aeroflot announced yesterday it’s buying over 300 narrow body aircraft from Irkut, Sukhoi, and Tupolev.
Sukhoi currently makes a regional jet modestly called Superjet. This was the plane that helped bankrupt Interjet. Tupolev makes a narrow body not unlike the old B757, used mostly by the Russian government (it saw service in Russian, Cuban, and North Korean airlines, too).
Irkut makes the MC-21, a mainline narrow body intended to compete with Boeing and Airbus. It got delayed in certification, in part, because they decided to replace the joint venture engines with Russian made ones a couple of years ago.
All three companies are trying to use Russian made components. I don’t know if that’s even possible. neither Boeing nor Airbus use only US or EU made components, after all.
the thing is, Russia won’t be getting new Airbus or Boeing planes any time soon, so they’re making their own.
The MC-21 has been coming for over a decade. Consensus is the Mad Vlad regime can force its domestic airlines to acquire it, just like Xi will make Chinese airlines take the COMAC C919. Now they have no choice. No doubt Cuba and North Korea, and maybe Iran, will take some, and for the same reason.
Other than that, prospects will depend on the quality of the aircraft. Safety, fuel burn, passenger experience (no, really), maintenance costs, reliability, etc. This remains to be seen, but the Superjet’s record does not bode well. Interjet pretty much cannibalized half its fleet to keep the other half going, then parked them (until lessors repossessed their A320/1 fleet due to lack of payment).
In other words, it’s beginning to look a lot like the Cold War years for Soviet civil aviation (what?). Only these times they have fewer client states, and are in no condition to impose terms on some of them.
@CSK:
Sitting heads of state tend to seem to die suddenly, because their overall health condition is usually not made widely known.
The Queen is in her mid-90s, I think, and despite what her subjects might feel like, she’s as mortal as the rest of us.
Steve Bannon, despite his vow to shoot it out with the cops, has surrendered to NY authorities.
Chicken. Loser.
@CSK:
First they came for Steve Bannon, and I cheered and whooped and smiled, because its about time for seditious miscreants to face the consequences of their treasonous, criminal activities.
@Kathy: Looks like they’ll have to do the same with their automobile manufacturing which currently looks to be a lot of joint ventures with Western manufacturers. Maybe carburetors will have a comeback.
@CSK:
@Kathy:
It’s been plain that the Queen has been ailing for some time.
Beyond actual reports of illness, and calling of attendances due to medical advice, there’s the more general handover of many duties to Charles, like the last Royal Speech for the Opening of Parliament.
Moving from Buckingham Palace to Windsor Castle; staying at Balmoral and having Johnson and Truss go there for resignation and appointment.
It’s not a surprise, to anyone who pays attention.
Will not make it much easier, though.
@JohnSF:
When I was a young teenager, I read an article by an American journalist about QEII that ended with a quote from a London cabdriver: “Your presidents come and go. Our queen, God bless her, is forever.”
@Mikey:
Here’s what Twisted Sister’s Dee Snider has to say about this:
@Scott:
The foremost feature of Soviet era cars, is they were never enough of them to meet demand.
@JohnSF: The Queen is 96, my MIL is 80–Elizabeth II has been a constant throughout their lives for many Brits. It’s inevitable, but still will be a bit of a shock, I think.
What the h3ll??
A hacker bought a voting machine on eBay. Michigan officials are now investigating
@JohnSF:
I admit I haven’t been paying attention.
@Jen:
I suppose is like your grandma dying. She’s been there all your life, too.
There are a lot of articles around about the recent declines in housing prices. The tone of these articles is that this is bad. Why is no one cheering the improvements in housing affordability that this means as well? Established people who own a house are not more important than young people trying to get into one.
@Scott:
From Dee Snider himself:
@Slugger: A decline in prices doesn’t necessarily mean affordability. It does stabilize the housing market a bit, but there’s a one/two punch hidden there…first, with interest rates climbing many homes are still out of reach for many young people. Second, home builders freak out when housing prices drop even a little bit. Delays in construction or cancellation of projects means that we’ll still be struggling for years with less housing stock than is needed.
Oooof…. This one is gonna leave a mark…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ0vPIo9eyY
The Lincoln Project ad, released on Thursday, went as narrated:
@EddieInCA: I would love to know what their game plan is for when Trump sues them for defamation. I mean, they said “fraud” right out there.
I think they have one, I just would like to know what it is.
@Jay L Gischer: Well, there is this:
Federal grand jury probing Trump PAC’s formation, fundraising efforts: Sources
@Jay L Gischer:
The current quality of Benito’s legal representation these days?
I’d tell Mad Vlad: You know you’re losing the war, when your cheerleaders complain about you losing the war.
On the other hand, can you loose the war when you’re actually at special military operation with the enemy?
@Jay L Gischer:
It ain’t defamation if it’s true.
@Jay L Gischer:
Jay. Seriously? Are you freaking kidding me???? WTF?
Top Trump Executive pleads guilty to fraud.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/18/top-trump-executive-pleads-guilty-to-fraud-in-new-york-00052638
n civil litigation in federal court, a witness’s invocation of the Fifth Amendment may give rise to an adverse inference “when independent evidence exists of the fact to which the party refuses to answer.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-deposition-fifth-amendment-new-york-fraud-investigation/
Trump and his foundation were just forced to admit their fraud.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-his-foundation-were-just-forced-admit-their-fraud-now-ncna1081906
@Scott: If a company doesn’t want to allow it’s employees access to potentially life-saving treatment, I’m okay with that. I’m also okay with pharmaceutical companies listing the companies that don’t want to in ads with banner headlines reading “These Companies DGAF About Your Health.” Balance in everything. I’m also in favor of more evangelicals who take weird positions of stuff being challenged using Jesus’ own purported words.
Even so people gonna believe what they want. And Earnest Aingley was right–Jesus can save your soul, but you’ll still be stupid. [paraphrase]
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
The problem is the double standard. If the company does want employees to use birth control, religious liberty means the company’s views are more important than the employees’ views. If a CVS pharmacist doesn’t want to you to use birth control, religious liberty means the employee’s views are more important than the company.
It’s basically a religious heckler’s veto where whoever the most extreme Christian is gets to enforce their theology on everyone around them.
On the rather transactional nature of Sino-Russian “friendship”:
Though as Bloomberg notes, given height of current spot price, Russia is still turning a profit.
But they miss that this is unlikely to have been gas for the EU market in the first place; it’ll be from the Far East fields, that sell LNG in east Asia, unless I’m much mistook.
@EddieInCA: I think you misunderstand me. I’m not doubting they have a case. What I’m wondering is just what punches they are gonna use. If it gets into discovery, what are they gonna ask for? And so on.
Let me elaborate. A political ad that goes so hard in accusing someone of criminal activity is really unusual. And it’s even more unusual to tell people “you have been conned”. Generally, doing that doesn’t work at all. So what’s up with this?
I think I get it now, though. This is the sort of thing that definitely makes Trump look bad. It is serious bait to him. He feels, rightly or wrongly, that not responding to it would make him look weak, and admit to the charges. So he’s really motivated to respond. But how’s he going to respond? The logical thing would be a defamation lawsuit, targeting the accusation of “fraud”.
None of the cites responding to me above show that fundraising with regard to the “stolen election” has been prosecuted successfully as fraud. So that seems to be the line of attack.
Trump bilks people routinely, but generally skirts the line of outright fraud. Generally. He has never incurred criminal liability for fraud.
So just how is this going to play out? I’m sure that the Lincoln Project has gamed this out and think it’s lose-lose for Trump. He loses if he doesn’t respond, and they’ve got a plan for the hurt if he does. I would love to know their plan, that’s all.
Los Angeles Times Michele Obama reflects on U. S. turmoil
@Just nutha ignint cracker: @Stormy Dragon: All the more reason to get rid of employee-based healthcare. These people believe that benefits are to be used to control the behavior of their employees.
@Jay L Gischer:
Discovery, in the legal sense. The chance to get their hands on all sorts of internal papers and communications. As I recall, Trump has a tendency to drop cases, or settle out of court, shortly before the discovery process would actually have to start.
When I worked for giant telecom companies, I was occasionally involved in projects that were the subject of lawsuits. Always a fun day when you get to work and there’s yellow crime scene tape across your cubicle’s doorway. Paralegals and technical staff thumbing through your files and making copies of the disk drives in your computers. You develop habits that most people think are peculiar. Eg, I still tend to reread e-mail messages a couple of times before I click on send, with an eye to “Did I say anything that I would be unhappy about having read in court?”
Queen Elizabeth II has died.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61585886
Queen Elizabeth II has died.
@Mikey: @CSK: That is really sad. An end of an era. But she lived a life worth living.
With all due respect and humility.
My condolences to you John SF and all the subjects of The House of Windsor.
The Queen’s passing is truly the end of an era. When she ascended the throne, I was a two-year-old toddler. I’m now seventy-two. She is also the last living leader with World War II connections.
The Queen is dead.
Long live the King.
@Lost in Quebec: Why are white supremacists never supreme?
She reigned for longer than I have been alive.
Rest in peace your Highness.
@Michael Cain: Certainly a possibility and it crossed my mind. But then, what do I know about this stuff? I’m a programmer and engineer.
@Scott: I’m wondering who the insurers are that are willing to offer the religious nut policies, and whether they can be pressured to not offer that shit.
Workers are more likely to take a job which offers well known insurance that MyPillow Health Insurance.
Although it’s not like health insurance companies have good reputations to begin with, so the big names might not care that people are saying they hate gay people or women.
@Jay L Gischer:
I 100% misunderstood you. My apologies.
@Stormy Dragon: I’ve been tripping over double standards since I was in middle school. The ugly reality is that as long as CVS will hire people who put their religious beliefs above service to the patient and defend them for doing so, the hecklers will keep winning.
@EddieInCA:
@Stormy Dragon:
This is another example of what I really really appreciate about our hosts’ blog and site. How many other sites do you know where people remain this civil to each other, and sincerely apologize when either their comment or the response has been misunderstood, or said an error.
@Jay L Gischer: And they are mostly lawyers. Even if they don’t know much about litigation, they know lawyers who do.
@Flat Earth Luddite: Where’s the fun in that?
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
By my calculations, Elizabeth II reigned for a little over 70 years. That’s far longer than Ramses II at 66 years, and Queen Victoria at 63.
@Kathy:
Louis XIV of France went for 72 years. Pity Elizabeth didn’t.
Pres. Biden has ordered all flags to be flown at half-mast for the next ten days “as a mark of respect for the memory of Queen Elizabeth II.”
@OzarkHillbilly:
Well duh, but even a sociopathic Luddite needs an occasional respite from sitting in my secret lair, stroking my pet cat Armageddon, and giggling manically.
Huh. And here I thought your sociopathy was limitless. The things I learn.
Listening to the Sex Pistols’ “God Saves The Queen”, as one does on a day like this, I was struck by the fact that since John Lyndon turned out to be a rabid conservative, and Sid Vicious’s sporadic ironic Nazi attire was to cover his genuine Nazi views, they probably genuinely did want God to save both the Queen and her fascist regime.
Who would have thought that they were being entirely earnest at the time?
Definite forerunners to the alt-right’s deployment of ironic white supremacy that shifts between “can’t you take a joke?” and genuine white supremacy depending on who they are speaking to. I thought fake-irony to cover deplorable earnestness was a relatively new thing that started with the internet.
@OzarkHillbilly: For anyone with an open mind who actually paid attention, what is remarkable about the Clinton emails is how clean they turned out to be. Tens of thousands, and she and her correspondents never slipped up on following protocol. The examples I’ve seen of the things she “should have known were classified” were laughable I suspect that if there were stronger examples we would have heard Olof them a thousand times over by now.
@Gustopher:
Nope. There’s a reason for the Dead Kennedys’ “Nazi Punks Fuck Off.” They weren’t ever a majority, but they did exist within the movement. The neo-Nazi skinheads started out as a punk offshoot. And the line between “ironic” ones and the real thing could get pretty fuzzy. They were the original 4chaners.
Back when he was a big alt-right figure, Milo directly cited punk as an inspiration for his antics.
@Gustopher:
That reminds me that today would be a good day to go re-enjoy the story of the time Sid Vicious tried to be a tough guy with Freddie Mercury and got his ass kicked. =)
@OzarkHillbilly:
Well, that was what the DA claimed back in the day, but what’d he know?
@Stormy Dragon:
Sid reminded too much of the wannabe toughs in the yard. Maybe 1 in 10 was about half as bad as he thought he was… The rest not even that much, unless they outnumbered you.
@Gustopher:
@Kylopod:
I that’s one of the reasons I never really felt at home or safe in the punk scene here in the 90’s. A lot of the violence, misogyny, and homophobia were just covered by the thinnest level of irony and BS.
Although, I did start getting harrassed a little bit less in school when I walked in on the first day of sophomore year wearing all black, purple docs, two inch thick wallet chains, and this tee-shirt:
https://alternativetentacles.com/product/jello-biafra-blowminds-unisex-black-tshirt/
and promptly punched the first person that called me a fag in the face.
Edited to add: I do wonder sometimes what it would have been like if he had beaten Feinstein for SF Mayor
You’ll remember the MI board of elections turned down a ballot initiative for an abortion rights amendment because the two GOPs on the four man board didn’t like the word spacing on the petition. The MI Supreme Court just put it back on the Nov ballot. The opinion is apparently one step more judicial than, “Are you effing kidding us?”
@Gustopher: one of the two, I can’t remember which, appeared on judge Judy in the late 90’s/early 2000’s. So very punk.
@MarkedMan:
More broadly, the Clintons are the most investigated people in the world. And all any of the very aggressive investigators ever really found was a dubious claim of perjury* and a consensual BJ. They have to be the most squeaky clean pair of politicians in recent history.
*I’m not going to dig back to confirm, but IIRC when asked if he’d had “sex” with Lewinsky they got the judge to define “sex” as genital intercourse. So Clinton and his team did a very lawyerly job of deception, but not technically perjury.
@OzarkHillbilly: True. But he’s a reformed and rehabilitated sociopath–as he’s often told yours truly. He no longer sociopaths just for the sociopathy of it. It’s got to be goal oriented.
@OzarkHillbilly: “The accurate and definitive answer is zero – although few if any news outlets have informed the public of that startling fact. Moreover, it is a fact that the Trump administration itself confirmed three years ago.”
Sure, but no one’s going to get any clicks for articles titled “Hillary Didn’t Do Anything Wrong Trump Administration Confirms.” And I doubt that they’re really getting any noticeable traffic from “Mar a Lago Raid–Part 25,” beyond our OtB readership, either.
Scheduled my updated Covid shot for Tuesday. They’re supposed to call and let me know if they’ll have the kids’ shots available.
Oddly enough, as soon as I made the appointment, I got the bad Covid headache. Going on two days now with random stabbing pain coming in through the top of my head and behind my right ear. The headache is the only “long” symptom I associate with Covid…never got headaches like that before Covid, and they’ve come off and on ever since I had it. Never for two days running, though. Wondering if it’s psychosomatic….I’ve been low-key stressing about updated shots for months.
If so, Tuesday can’t come fast enough!
@Thomm: It would have to have been Lyddon given that Sid shuffled off this mortal coil in 1979 at age 21. But I’ve never been sure about how many viewers realize that lots of people went on JJ or the Peepul’s Court because the producers put up enough money to pay a modest appearance per diem as well as the total amount needed to settle the dispute. It was a good opportunity for Lyddon to stretch his 15 minutes and get paid, too. All you needed was the ability to take Judge Judy screeching “I DON’T BELIEVE YOU!!!! ” at you. Not a bad deal, all in all.
There’s a comment by Beth that I saw in my email because I’m subscribed to the thread, but which for some reason hasn’t shown up in the thread yet. (It’s got three links.)
Also, I wouldn’t call the Nazi imagery among some punks “irony” per se. I think the theme was shock value.
@Kylopod: The Dead Kennedys did a whole song about Nazi punks.
@Mikey: Yes. I mentioned it in my previous post.
@Kylopod: Aha, I didn’t scroll up far enough.
I was a mid-80s punk and had run-ins with Nazi punks and racist skinheads. Definitely more of the latter but the former were certainly there.