Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, May 6, 2021
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64 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Way back a million years ago, in 2015, when Trump was running in the primary, I was making the case that “Trump IS the Republican Party”, meaning that all the analysis about Trump’s politics and whether the policies of the other primary entrants more reflected the various interest of traditional Republican factions didn’t mean diddly. The motivated base of the Republican Party was solidly in the wackadoodle camp and Trump was the one bringing the angry-crazy mix they craved so much. I think events have proved that out.
There was an article over at TPM a few days ago, mulling on how the Republican/Democratic battle lines (or historical equivalent) had moved over the years splitting along Agrarian/Urban and then later Capital/Labor and wondering if we were moving into a new phase and what that might be. Steven, I suspect this is the type of thing you and your colleagues devote serious though to. But, as I’ve stated before, while I agree this is a time of transition I think the dominant split is now Angry Conspiracy Theorist/Everyone Else. I think the Republican Party has been locked into a death spiral for decades now, slowly and now quickly driving the highly motivated sane people from the party and attracting the highly motivated loons (kind of an oxymoron).
And before anyone challenges me on the fact that “Everyone Else” is a much larger group than “Angry Conspiracy Theorist”, remember that 70-80% of voters are just going to go along with whatever crowd they are in. The battle is between the highly committed bases of the respective parties.
@MarkedMan: The problem with the Republican Party is that it is still carrying the name Republican. Going back in time, it is clear that it is the George Wallace party. If you look at the issues Wallace was running on in his presidential runs (as a Democrat), it wouldn’t be much different than Trump.
Everybody talks about the Republican Southern Strategy as a success but we are now seeing its ultimate failure.
My wife and I started watching “Ted Lasso” on Monday and finished it last night.
Every single scene of that show is just delightful.
I know I’m late to this party.
@MarkedMan:
I never thought Trump would win the nominee but he did
I never thought he would win the Presidency but he did
Because of that I didn’t trust the polls I km 2020.
@Neil Hudelson: I adore that show. Season 2 kicks off on July 23.
@Scott:
Except it’s combined with the GOP’s traditionally plutocratic economic policies. Wallace proposed expanding Social Security and Medicare.
@Doug Mataconis:
The polls in the 2016 Republican primaries were accurate. They consistently showed Trump winning, yet a lot of pundits refused to believe them.
@Kylopod:
Were the polls for the presidential race accurate, though?
I have to admit that I was astounded when Trump won the Massachusetts Republican primary with 50% of the vote. Mass. is certainly one of the bluest, if not the bluest, states. And New England Republicans are a different breed entirely from southern, southwestern, or middle western ones.
Baltimore Orioles’ John Means throws no-hitter facing minimum 27 batters
This close to a perfect game.
It would be special to witness such an achievement.
@Doug Mataconis: I never thought Trump would stay in primary race, because I figured he understood the public exposure of his corruption would ruin his business. But once he decided to stay in I assumed he would win the primary. I thought Hillary would pull it out but was never sanguine. The polls were just too close and there was the “bigot bias” to account for.
@Kylopod:
True but I honestly thought his collapse once the actual voting began
SpaceX successfully tests vehicle that could go to the Moon and Mars
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/05/05/tech/spacex-starship-sn15-test-flight-scn/index.html
@CSK:
The general election, no (though not as bad as in the popular imagination); the primaries, yes.
It may seem strange now, given that he ended up becoming the darling of evangelicals, but at the time he first ran in the primaries he exuded secularism and was also sounding a pretty moderate ring on economic issues.
Approaching 24 hours post first dose, no side effects as yet. there may be some pain in the injection site, but it’s hard to say. For some reason I uncovered my right arm, and that’s been having some dull aches due to too much work lately. And to complicate matters more, the nurse plunged the needle in too deep and there was some bleeding, so it may be due to that.
Headline on an opinion piece at the Guardian: To understand why Joe Biden has shifted left, look at the people working for him
I can’t bring myself to *read it* (or even link it), I am just amazed at the blinders one must wear to not notice who it was who put those people in those positions?
**it is in fact possible the author does address Joe’s picking his people, headlines are usually written by others after all.
A quick note on how vaccination si handled in Mexico.
To begin with, supplies are much smaller than in the US or other rich countries. This affects the rate at which they are given.
Next, it’s all centralized at the federal level. the original plan was to begin with healthcare workers in the government sector, then the ones in the private sector, then people over 60, then people between 50 and 59, then people between 40 and 49, then people between 30 and 39, then everyone else.
There was no allowance for separate vaccination of private healthcare workers. Also some politicians and government employees got vaccinated regardless of their age or position. Next did come people over 60, but that started a bit later than planned. Next came those over 50, but that began a month later than planned. And also teachers are now being vaccinated, regardless of age.
That aside, vaccination is done by municipality (roughly equivalent to counties), but only over the course of three days. People are divided by the initial in their last name into three groups. Some go each day. that’s it. If you miss your chance, you have to wait until they figure out what to do. For instance, any person over 60 who missed their chance, couldn’t get a vaccine along with the over 50 group.
You have to register at a government website, or over the phone, or you can’t get a shot (they do check). The vaccine you get depends on what is on hand and what gets sent where. I lucked out pon Pfizer (IMO the gold standard along with Moderna, for now). In order of decreasing reported efficacy come Sputnik V, AstraZeneca, Cansino, and Sinovac.
Me, I’d have taken any, as they all offer increased protection against severe disease. But if I’d gotten Sinovac, I’d definitely would have kept looking for a shot of Pfizer or Moderna or even J&J in the US.
@OzarkHillbilly:
This is the first no hitter by an Orioles pitcher since Jim Palmer in 1969
@OzarkHillbilly:
It’s a commonplace saying on the right that Biden is just a senile, drooling puppet who’s being manipulated by Obama and other ultra-left-wingers. Jill is the caretaker who feeds him and changes his diapers.
An interesting read: ‘We go after them like pitbulls’ – the art detective who hunts stolen Picassos and lost Matisses
@Doug Mataconis: The article mentions that. It also points out that:
@CSK: The Guardian, even if it’s on the left, can be just as bad.
@CSK: The other day Glenn Beck and Bill O’Reilly actually got into a debate over whether Biden’s fundamental problem is senility or socialism. I’m not kidding.
@OzarkHillbilly:
I skimmed the article. It seems that the author–one of Obama’s former staffers–totally avoids the question of whether Biden chose his own people.
@Kylopod:
I believe you.
@Neil Hudelson:
Strong disagree. We’ve taken two stabs at Ted Lasso since so many people love it, and both times we just couldn’t get past the eye rolling and insulting premise. It’s Emily In Paris with sports which to my mind makes it even worse that EIP because at least EIP has Paris. But we couldn’t endure that show for long, either. I don’t find the premise of ignorant Americans abroad entertaining.
@Kylopod: That sounds like quite the galaxy-brain debate.
The transformation of the Republican Party into aTrump Personality Cult is complete. This is not good news for America or American politics.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/552018-the-memo-the-gops-war-is-already-over-trump-won
Lesbian couple elected Prom King and Queenin very conservative County in Southwear Ohio
The kids are gonna be alright. In are probably going to be better than us.
https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/ohio-high-school-elects-lesbian-couple-prom-king-queen-n1265962
Two bits of cheery news:
Moderna says its vaccine booster works well against Covid variants.
The U.S. positivity rate dropped to 3.8% yesterday. That’s the lowest of the pandemic.
@Neil Hudelson: We enjoyed it as well.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Multi Pitcher No Hiiterz aren’t real no hitters IMO
@OzarkHillbilly:
Multi pitcher no hitters are not real no hitters ⁹IMO
@Doug Mataconis:
Yep. A cult of personality. And as with any good cult, there’s even the obligatory mass suicide – in this case by the novel means of refusing a vaccination. I doubt any cult has ever managed to convince more people to kill themselves. Pity they kill innocent people as well, if they could just manage to kill themselves the gene pool would be measurably improved.
The GOP has been intellectually bankrupt, running on fumes for decades, at least since Reagan. With the intellectual veneer gone we see the rotten wood beneath. The GOP made a fateful choice in the sixties in opposing Civil Rights. They never recovered. Now they’re reduced to this: groveling before a transparently phony führer, and taking their own lives to demonstrate submission.
If you’re looking for a new tell show to watch I reccomend The Americans who h rzn on FX from 2013 to 2018.
It’s available on Amsxon Prime Video
@Michael Reynolds:
There’s an article in Politico today, the opening line of which describes the conundrum of an Ohio voter who doesn’t know what to think about his local congressional race because Trump hasn’t told him. Apparently this guy gets his news from Right Side Broadcasting on Youtube.
http://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/05/trump-social-media-supporters-485381
@Doug Mataconis:..Multi pitcher no hitters are not real no hitters ⁹IMO
If either team has no hits at the end of the alloted innings for a regulation game, (9, 8 1/2 {or 7, 6 1/2 ugh} or any number of innings after 5, 4 1/2 if a game is called, usually because of weather*) no matter how many roster players appeared on the mound, it is a no hitter. There were no hits by one team. What else can it be?
*Did I get all that right?
I guess it could be called a Bill Veeck no hitter. There were no hits in that game either. But the White Sox forfeited.
That’s funny, Biden was to the left of Obama on many things, most notably gay marriage.
@OzarkHillbilly:
The article was more interesting for what it left out than what it put in. The author made the point that since the vast majority of Biden’s staff is young, they’ve had no experience working with sane Republicans.
@Doug Mataconis: Baseball agrees with you. While I think they are no hitters, I don’t think they should count. It is notable when a team goes 9 innings without ever getting a hit, it is another thing altogether when a single pitcher accomplishes that feat.
Not quite: also from the article I linked above:
An Official No Hitter is 9 innings pitched by a single pitcher.
@Michael Reynolds: You didn’t see the shame show I did. Isn’t the gripe of Emily in Paris that she is effortless effective and influential despite being a fish out of water? That’s not how Ted Lasso goes.
I’m reminded of a (NYTimes?) review of “12 Monkeys” in which the critic complained that the Bruce Willis character was the same one he always played: plucky but unbelievable tough underdog who somehow manages to save the day. I think he went into the wrong theater and saw “Die Hard 8”
Not all Republicans are bigoted against trans youth
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/06/transgender-athlete-laws-gop-484799
BBC’s view of Liz Cheney
Now Texas is considering news osws that would make it harder to vote
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/dozens-businesses-speak-out-against-voting-restrictions-texas-n1266287
Flotida Governor Ron DeSantis signs bill that puts new voting restrictions in place
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/552089-florida-gov-ron-desantis-signs-election-restriction-bill
@Mu Yixiao: It’s good to see the BBC a bit skeptical of Cheney. As I commented on her op-ed, are we so desperate for a reasonable Republican we’ll settle for Liz Cheney?
@OzarkHillbilly:..An Official No Hitter is 9 innings pitched by a single pitcher.
I don’t make the rules (if I did there would be no designated hitter).
From nonohitters.com
Also to be noted:
The Cubs have thrown 16 no-hitters in franchise history.
Only 8
CardinalsStinkBirds have thrown no-hitters.(Just testing the delete function)
@gVOR08: A lot of people in the media and even a lot of liberals are just plain dopes when it comes to this sort of thing. It’s something I like to call the Iraqi Gandhi Effect, after a classic Onion article. Any Republican who shows the slightest bit of dissent from the extreme level of derangement in the party is treated as a hero–and their own terrible history is washed away like it never happened.
It’s striking that the BBC article refers to Cheney as a “Never-Trumper”–this from someone who supported Trump in 2016 even after the Access Hollywood fiasco where she stated that Hillary’s actions are far worse. During his presidency, she did publicly criticize him, mostly on foreign-policy, though she continued to support him politically and even boasted that she voted with him 97% of the time. But now she’s a Never-Trumper for finally breaking with him after the election.
What bothers me especially is that so much of the anti-Trump portion of the GOP comes from the Bush and neocon orbit. It gives me a sense it’s rooted more in old rivalries than any principled stand for democracy and reason. I’m not saying we should spit in their faces–there’s a case for making alliances, enemy of my enemy and all that. But we need to be a lot more cautious and wary of people like this than I see happening.
@Doug Mataconis:
Eventually they’ll have to pass a law specifically taking the vote away from all people of color, or all Democrats.
@Kylopod:
It doesn’t. It says that the Never Trumpers can look to her as someone to follow. The exact line is:
@Kylopod:
If Liz is like her dad she believes in the unitary executive model, essentially an constitutional monarchy with a term limit. The model utterly depends on the dictatorship being intelligent and benevolent. Dick must be horrified, simply horrified, to see a malignant narcissist buffoon can be elected POTUS in America, United States of, as easily as one can be sprung from the loins of inbred British royal twits.
@Doug Mataconis: The basic premise of “The Americans” actually happened in real life.
Russian spies living among us: Inside the FBI’s “Operation Ghost Stories”
@Mu Yixiao: A distinction without a difference?
Seeing how many people are paying attention to the efficacy of the COVID vaccines, I wonder: do you know the efficacy of the childhood vaccines?
I admit I don’t. But I knew no vaccine is 100% effective. This is why when anti-vaxxer parents refuse to vaccinate their children, they are lowering herd immunity and putting even vaccinated children at risk.
Take the MMR vaccine. It is 97% effective against measles, 97% effective against rubella, and 88% effective against mumps.
Those are good numbers. But it means a small fraction of vaccinated children are still susceptible to all 3 diseases. Add unvaccinated children, and the reservoir where these pathogens can multiply gets larger. Add children who cannot be vaccinated due to immunodeficiency conditions or allergies, and its all but certain some children will get sick with one of these three diseases.
Here’s some info from the CDC regarding measles cases. Notice the high number in 2019, and notice the very low number for 2020. Like flu, measles gets clobbered by COVID precautions.
While the numbers are low, even in 2019, relative to the size of the population, consider these are children we’re talking about. Would society dismiss a like number of cases of a more serious disease, say polio?
For decades, most children were vaccinated. these days that number is still large, but smaller than it used to be. We’ll see more outbreaks of childhood diseases vaccination could keep at bay. And we may see even larger numbers of COVID cases for years and years, as long as a sizable fraction of the population rejects the COVID vaccines.
Hell is other people.
Who needs a job?
The local Panera Bread restaurant that I have been frequenting for years can’t find enough help to keep the indoor dining room open past 3pm. The normal close time has been 9pm.
(The drive through is still open till 9.)
The Culver’s in town that just recently opened their inside dining when the State of Illinois relaxed the Covid restrictions has had to limit service to drive through only again as they can’t find enough help either.
I hang out at Panera for several reasons. The coffee club costs $10.05 tax included every thirty days. That’s 33.5cents/day for all the coffee I can drink. I ocasionally get a toasted bagel and on payday I may splurge and get a Bacon Egg and Cheese Breakfast wrap or Lunch 1/2 and 1/2 Soup and Sandwich.
The main draw about this place for me is that I can use the free internet connection for hours on end since I have stopped internet service at home. ($700/year).
The management at this Panera has said that customers can sit in the dining room after 3pm “as long as you want” they just won’t take orders and when the coffee tank is empty it’s empty.
My other internet “cafe” was McDonalds (85cent senior coffee, free refills) but they have only offered drive through service for more than a year now. On occasion I will sit in the car in MickeyD’s parking lot but that gets cramped before long.
Just the other day a brand new Starbucks in a new brand new stand alone building opened here that I have not checked out yet. The only other ‘bucks in town are inside the Barnes and Noble and inside the Kroger. I may have to lay out far too much cash for a simple cup of mud at the new bistro just to see if their wi-fi is in gear.
The Former Guy is upset about this week’s decision upholding his Facebook ban
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/05/donald-trump-facebook-ban-response
You and me both.
I sit down corrected (tho I was mostly referring to the 9 innings rule).
Glad to see your delete button still works.
World Series Titles:
St Louis Cardinals- 11
Chicago
CubsPunching Bags- 3Three Briooklyn men were convicted of a crime they didn’t commit due to apparent misconduct by prosecutors.
https://gothamist.com/news/prosecutors-wrongfully-convicted-three-men-who-spent-24-years-behind-bars-will-they-be-disbarred.
@Doug Mataconis:
And the vast majority is overjoyed. So we’re even. 🙂
@OzarkHillbilly:
That which we call a spanking, by any other name…
Holy smokes, the number of numbnuts on social media saying that people who got the Covid vaccine can shed live virus is astounding. That is literally impossible to do from the vaccine.
when Trump’s next coup happens, the Republican party will fully support it.
Trump will head north to Bedminster this Sunday, after a festive Mother’s Day brunch.
@Teve:
No doubt they would, but I doubt Trump will risk a true call to arms. Even at his rally he ended with a waffle word to cover his rear.. “…peacefully…”
The best predictive for Trump has been self-interest. He doesn’t give a damn about the US or it’s people. Not the right stuff for a placing one’s life, liberty, and personal fortune on the line.