Trump Felony Conviction and the 2024 Election
A Morning Consult survey finds:
- Over half of voters (54%) approve of the 12 jurors’ historic decision to convict the former president on 34 felony charges related to a 2016 hush-money scheme with adult actress Stormy Daniels. A similar share believes Trump committed a crime.
- Our Friday survey showed that just 15% of Republican voters nationwide want Trump to drop his White House bid, a bit higher than the 8% of Trump supporters who said the same. That figure among the larger GOP electorate is in line with the share of potential Republican primary voters who supported his last remaining challenger, Nikki Haley, at the end of her campaign.
- Roughly half of voters said they would oppose the former president’s imprisonment for his 34 class E felonies. The most popular option (at 69%) would be fining Trump, followed by another 49% who would put him on probation.
To understand the significance of those numbers, I’d need to know their overlap with those who favored a candidate other than Trump before the verdict. There are, after all, a lot of people who simultaneously prefer someone other than Trump be the next President and yet plan to vote for Trump because he’s the only viable non-Biden candidate.
What we need to know—and, presumably, other polling will show this in time—is how many previously-committed Trump voters will now either stay home or switch their vote to Biden now that their guy is a convicted felon. My suspicion is that number is much, much lower than it should be in the abstract. Given how tight the margins are in the swing states, it might well nonetheless be high enough to make a difference.
I expect the polling to demonstrated continue polarization and partisan rationalization.
I do concur that there is a decent chance that the conviction will quell turnout on the margins, which could matter for sure.
Committed Trump voters don’t believe that Trump committed any crimes anyway. In fact, the trial results will only make them more determined to vote for him.
@CSK: Committed partisan voters are not the game regardless. Changeable fractions on the margin are the entire subject.
If I were running a PAC I’d go right at the evangelicals, shaming them for imagining that Mr. grab ’em by the pussy,’ is somehow an emissary of Jesus Christ. Not so much with the hope of shaming the shameless, but challenging their faith to reduce their appeal beyond the core. They should be hearing the words ‘false prophet,’ and ‘golden calf,’ a lot. Make them look immoral. Make them look un-Christian.
The core of the enemy is white evangelicals. Stop euphemizing, stop pretending it’s all about rural, or male, or white, go directly after the real enemy and attack them using their own professed beliefs. You don’t win wars by refusing to engage the enemy.
@Lounsbury:
Professor Joyner specifically asked “what we need to know now is how many committed Trump voters will now either stay home or switch their vote to Biden now that their guy is a convicted felon.”
@Michael Reynolds:
I think their response to the notion that Trump isn’t “perfect” would be that God always uses flawed human vessels to deliver his message.
@CSK: I think that question is pretty easy; the number is close to zero. Definitely no committed Trump voters will change to Biden–not even Haley, Barr, or Pence will do that–but some may stay home.
I still think Democrats have to win this one on their own; the count of Biden voters who stay home over Gaza could easily equal or even overwhelm the Trump stay homes. It’s a disadvantage that comes with depending on people who vote out of concern for principles.
If I were writing the Presentence Report for convicted felon private citizen Donald Trump I would ask the Judge to direct the defendant to never lie when he speaks or he will go directly to jail.
(under these conditions Trump will be in the slammer in five minutes)
I think you need to worry about how many committed Biden voters will not stay home or switch their vote to RFKjr since their guy has run these show trials. And some, may even vote for Trump as a defiance vote.
What you have to worry about is that hard core Democrats have long opposed criminal background checks for job applicants. Now they revel in “felony conviction” on charges even the best lawyers can’t explain.
@Michael Reynolds:
This. Though I’d say “professed beliefs” need to be used against more than white evangelicals.
I believe there are significant numbers of changeable voters on the margins who can be persuaded if they’re made to confront the incompatibility of support for a career criminal (it doesn’t begin or end with the NY election fraud conviction) with core American principles of justice like equal treatment under the law and trial by jury.
It is far past time to treat continued support for Trump as a reasonable political calculation in a democratic republic like the US. Trump voters and their Republican political enablers should be made to publicly declare their acceptance of authoritarianism over a nation of laws of the people by the people.
If this were a show trial Trump would have been in a cage in the courtroom.
I had dinner last night with my former assistant and her folks. Her parents are Mom, a successful lawyer in the suburbs around Richmond, VA, and Dad, a successful upper-middle manager at an engineering company. Between them, they have two masters degrees, a PhD and a Law License to practics in Virginia and Maryland. In other words, smart, successful people. They’re also Evangelical Trump Supporters ™. My former assistant is just this side of AOC. So political conversations are dicey.
So during the course of a long dinner, I probed and asked and here’s what I gleaned and heard:
They blame Biden for inflation. When I brought up that inflation was a worldwide problem, and asked if Biden was responsible for the inflation in Germany, France, and England and other countries, their answer was “Yes. Biden’s policies were responsible for worldwide inflation.”
They HATE Biden because he’s sold old and decrepit. They claimed he can’t put two sentences together. When I asked them about the State of the Union speech, they told me, with certainty, that “Biden was so hopped up on drugs that his eyes were bloodshot. There was no way Biden did that speech without being on drugs.”
They believe the economy is the worst in 50 years. When I pointed out that the economy, under all historical standards, is close to being the best economy in 50 years, they claimed I was spouting Democrat talking points.
They believe we are hemorrhaging jobs. When I pointed out that the Biden administration’s job record is much better than Trump’s record.
When I asked them how they square wither religious views with Trump’s immoral behavior, here’s what they said: “The Democrats have been coming after him for years, and he’s only doing what he needs to do to protect people like us. The Democrats are changing laws to go after him.”
This was all done civilly, but I could sense their growing frustration with my facts, so I dropped it.
Bottom line: They live in an alternate reality. One where the country is falling apart, and the barbarians at the gates are Democrats. They’ve bought the Fox spin completely, even though it’s detached from reality. They’ve drunk the kool aid and nothing will keep them from supporting Trump. Trump, could, literally, kill a Democrat and they’d say “The Democrat had it coming.”
It’s sad and stunning. These are not stupid people.
So Eddie, other than that how was the dinner?
@just nutha:
I agree. I was affirming Prof. Joyner’s conclusion.
@EddIeInCA:
Indeed. It’s good to keep in mind that not all Trump supporters are moronic churls. I don’t quite get it, but there it is.
@EddIeInCA:
Honestly, thank you for trying.
I wish I didn’t feel so much dread that good people’s earnest desire to remain civil and factual – when the opposition feels no discomfort with incivility and alternate reality – will be what ultimately dooms us.
@JKB:
Awesome — we’ve now advanced from one repeated lie (that these were somehow “show trials”) to a second lie (that somehow Biden “ran them”). Pretty soon we’ll start hearing from JKB that Biden personally introduce Stormy Daniels to Trump…
@JKB: Biden may well have problems with his constituency, but having directed or participated in show trials is not one of them.
And STEP AWAY FROM THE BONG. NOW!!!
@EddIeInCA:
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll say it again — THIS is the real danger. It’s not Trump. It’s not the evangelicals or the fetus-fetishists or the white supremacists. It’s the coalition that has co-opted enough of the infoverse that facts no longer matter in this election. The election will be decide by what fraction of the public chooses to consume only disinformation.
@CSK: Ah yes – sorry I missed that. Apologies.
@Michael Reynolds: your strategy is more about self-pleasuring than anything else.
@EddIeInCA:
Ah, the old “he’s fucking porn stars to protect us” defense. A timeless classic. Your former-assistant’s parents got you there.
@Michael Reynolds: Personally I’d go for saying Trump is the Antichrist. But that’s an aesthetic judgement, not tactical. Even though Trump fits as the Antichrist, it would just harden current attitudes. But, yes, Ds need to recognize there’s a segment of the electorate they can only write off and use as an enemy.
@EddIeInCA: I have no idea how well educated and credentialed the writer is, although I know which way I’d bet, but this letter to the editor from today’s Tampa Bay Times is a fair example of the alternate universe we’re dealing with.
@EddIeInCA:
The intellectual and civil ‘advances’ since the beginning of the Enlightenment are but a patchy veneer… a thin restraint on the human id.
@JKB:
What do you mean when you say show trial trial? Because I don’t think that term means what you think it means.
Trump’s polling dipped after the Access Hollywood tape, and then went right back up when it was clear he wasn’t going anywhere. I don’t think people disapproved as much as they wanted to be seen as disapproving if everyone else disapproved.
I expect we will see the same thing play out again.
People want to support a winner. While they think Trump can win, they will continue to support him despite everything, no matter what they have to tell themselves.
Even if they have to tell themselves things like this:
@JKB:
It makes no sense, but it feels good, so it must be true. Most people won’t go that far into fantasy land, they will settle on some version of “he’s an asshole, but he’s my asshole.”
Alvin Bragg seems like a decent lawyer, and he explained it pretty convincingly to 12 jurors. Probably the alternates as well.
@EddIeInCA:
Yes, it is.
Yes, they are.
Smart people are best at finding ways to rationalize irrational beliefs and attitudes. And not bad at all at compartmentalizing facts and even thought. Being smart does not equal thinking critically, or evaluating all evidence.
Very smart people can therefore excel at stupidity.
@Michael Reynolds:
I hear ya, but generally speaking convincing people they are hypocrites and making it a theological debate are problematic battlefields. Belittling them is counterproductive as they’ve been extremely well indoctrinated against that. Theological debates usually wind up in deep weeds and are seldom result in anyone changing their mind.
I think it’s best to keep it to simple facts when dealing with very limited bandwidths. Like Trump currently arguing in court for the right to kill political opponents while presenting himself as the only thing between us an banana republic status.
This is about Trump. Keep it right there, one small spoonful at a time.
I dont think this conviction makes much difference. Makes some Democrats happy. I think that if you actually talk with evangelical Trump supporters like Eddie did (almost my entire family fit his description though not as well educated) they have either decided he is now a true Christian so he has been forgiven by God for his past acts or he is flawed but carrying out God’s will ie he is David or Samson. Since he named the judges that overturned Roe he could f*ck a pro star then kill her after the deed and they would still vote for him.
Of course on the other side of the vote evangelicals tend to embrace apocalypse stories and their media is telling them voting for Biden, really any Democrat, will bring on the apocalypse for the US.
Steve
“What we need to know—and, presumably, other polling will show this in time—is how many previously-committed Trump voters will now either stay home or switch their vote to Biden now that their guy is a convicted felon.”
I also imagine this may motivate some folks who are ambivalent on Biden or “A pox on both their houses” type to get out there and pull the lever for ol’ Joe with nose firmly pinched. And I think that number will be both larger and more important than the one quoted and anticipate/hope that will shift the election firmly in his favor.
@Roger: He means what other people (on all sides) mean when they say “an assault on/abuse of the rule of law:” a result of which he disapproves.
@JKB:
You think that “committed Biden voters” will change to RFK Jr. because Trump was convicted in a New York court?
This is delusional.
Also: you don’t understand what a “show trial” actually is.
@dazedandconfused: I think he does it more to reinforce his own shaky faith that he’s on the right side of the metaphysical issue about materialism relative to God’s existence. He should just realize that he’s taken the side of “I don’t have one” on the question of his immortal soul and take Kirkegaard’s “leap into the darkness.” Let it rest at that.
@JKB:
Were they show trials?
No, Trump is s criminal who broke the law.
Did Biden run this fair trial?
Obviously not.
Do Democrats need to worry?
Republicans do. More voters than not, including independents, agree with the verdict and are thus less likely to support Convicted Felon Trump.
The desperation of the traitorous right and its crooked, corrupt, criminal leader Trump is palpable. Their MAGA tears taste delicious.
Lock Him Up!
Lock Him Up!
Lock Him Up!
@JKB: Also, the notion that Biden ran the trial is delusional. How would he have done that?
If he is so powerful why are all the other trials taking so long?
If we really were in show trial mode, how is Trump still walking around a free man?
@steve: The comparison from 2016 was with Cyrus, which caught me by surprise. I wouldn’t have 1:10 odds that any of them–or the televangelists they follow, for that matter–had even ever heard Cyrus let alone know about his small role in exile history. But, credit where credit is due, somebody knew and penciled in enough dots on the dispensationalist
tapestryconnect the dots “Hello Kitty!” picture to elbow both Trump and Cyrus into it. Well done, you! (Whoever you are.)@JKB: “What you have to worry about is that hard core Democrats have long opposed criminal background checks for job applicants. Now they revel in “felony conviction” on charges even the best lawyers can’t explain.”
So you really think it makes you look smart when you, a person who clearly understands nothing about Democratic voters, attempts to explain Democrats to (mostly) Democrats? Maybe save your wisdom for your next Klavern, where people even more ignorant than you will applaud your unique insights.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: ” The comparison from 2016 was with Cyrus, which caught me by surprise. I wouldn’t have 1:10 odds that any of them–or the televangelists they follow, for that matter–had even ever heard Cyrus let alone know about his small role in exile history.”
No one was reading history. They watched 300, which was essentially gay male porn disguised as an action movie so real men who hate homosexuals get feel good about getting a woody watching it.
@just nutha:
Actually, I don’t want a hit on that bong, thank you kindly. As you know, I can’t afford to destroy any more brain cells.
Take 9 mins out of your day to listen to this from Colin Cowherd, no hard core lefty.
https://youtu.be/ehi2y0vuRKQ?si=fopqMs3kwh8UGErg
Every Democrat should steal his riff on all the felons around Trump.
@gVOR10:
I think a more effective tactic would be “When you read the gospels, who do you root for?” Parallel columns: here’s what Jesus had to say about the issue, here’s what the Pharisees said. Which side are you on?
I haven’t heard much talk about the effect of Biden’s Israel policy on the Muslim vote in Michigan. It’s large there and so is the discontent.
https://apnews.com/article/michigan-primary-uncommitted-dearborn-arab-muslim-05f6a1099c00fe75823f77aaadbacf25
@gVOR10:
I’m old enough to remember people saying Ronald Wilson Reagan was the antichrist. 6-6-6 the number of letters in his name.
@DK:
Trump is now claiming he never said “lock her up” in reference to Hillary Clinton. There is, of course, video and audio evidence of him saying exactly that.
Sad!
Good news everybody! Syphilis is making a big comeback in the US. As I am sure people know in later stages it spreads through the body causing a wide range of symptoms. Researchers are concerned that in particular we might be seeing more eye symptoms and more blindness. So what’s the good news? Congress, bless our Republicans, is pressing for cuts in spending in the national STI workforce.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/06/eye-syphilis/678576/
Steve
The very fact of the rush to use “convicted felon” signifies it was a show trial. And really, Democrats should maintain some consistency, Trump is a “justice system-impacted individual”
In any case, this is politics. What matters is the opinion that can be generated in the mind of the voters. Show trial, banana republic, convicted “felon”; all terms fighting it out for space in voters’ minds.
@EddIeInCA:
I’ve seen it mentioned that people like us- educated, middle class, well versed in news media- can sometimes be the most susceptible to propaganda because our skills in logic can allow us to argue ourselves into absurdities, when we are blind to our underlying emotional needs.
Trumpists are always angry, fearful people who see the world in decline. It can spring from a lot of different sources but the “Make America Great Again” tells us what is going on; the world is changing and they are terrified and enraged.
It doesn’t matter than none of their arguments hold water for even a second; They NEED to believe that Trump, like them, are the victims of some dark conspiracy. So logic is pressed into service to forge some sort of plausibly sounding narrative that they can cling to.
@Michael Reynolds:
Yeah, MR, they tried that already. It didn’t work then and it isn’t going to work now. I was an evangelical believer once. Oh, the rationalizations I could regale you with for the un-Christian things I used to do.
https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2024/may/donald-trump-guilty-verdict-new-york-trial-evangelicals.html
@JKB:
You’re forgetting that show trials always end in forced public confessions.
Trump has confessed to nothing.
@wr: I wasn’t thinking about history. Cyrus has a small role in The Bible. If I recall correctly, he was the one who let Nehemiah go back to Jerusalem to rebuild the wall, but it’s been a long time since I read that account (and I certainly didn’t do it as a Baptist), so I could be wrong. As to whether evangelicals watched The 300, I can’t even speculate.
@DrDaveT: I’ve actually heard people claiming to be evangelicals take the side of the Pharisees, so I’m not sure that such a point will resonate with them. Beyond that, the current mode in Evangelicalism seems to be “take over our town/county/state/nation for Jesus.” Combine that with the fact that even 50+ years ago, my pastor told me that I was dangerous because I was “one of those people who believe that they can simply read The Bible for themselves and decide what it means” (without someone to tell them what to think), and I find myself being pessimistic about what people are being taught. Add that the pastor at the church I went to in Daegu, ROK, pointed to me at a men’s group meeting where he noted that he and I had been having some very interesting conversations, but he would advise any of the other men in the group to not talk to me about spiritual matters and I see that things haven’t changed much, but that French (I think) was right when he noted that whatever change there is comes only for the worse.
As always, YMMV, so feel free to tilt at whatever windmills you prefer with whatever jousting method you like.
ETA: There’s also the problem that there’s a brand (sect?) of Evangelicals out in the wild that specifically reject the teachings of Jesus on matters of conduct toward others–particularly on political matters. (Can’t remember the article. Someone from here linked to it on a comment thread.)
Oops, put above in wrong place. Sorry.
Steve
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Cyrus freed the Hebrews from captivity in Babylon, and allowed them return home and rebuild the temple. There’s a part in the Bible where Isiah refers to him as “Jehovah’s anointed one.” The Hebrew word for anointed is meshiach, which is usually translated as messiah.
Having had a Jewish education, I can tell you Cyrus didn’t feature prominently. So I’ve no idea what significance, if any, he has with gentiles.
Also, as per the Harari Principle, think of religion most often as a tribal marker or identification, or political party. Few who profess to believe in the tenets of a religion actually do.
@steve:
Oh, wait til it becomes resistant to antibiotics )or maybe more resistant?), and we begin to see also neurosyphilis (which might explain Convicted Felon Orangefuhrer, if he caught it in his personal Vietnam)
@JKB:
This, from the hypocrites who’ve gone from “Lock Her Up!” to “Waaaaaaa lawfare waaaaaaa show trial waaaaa” haha.
They don’t want you to call Crooked Trump a convicted felon because they know his criminality is costing him support. Too bad.
Lock Him Up!
Lock Him Up!
Lock Him Up!
Lock Him Up!
Lock Him Up!
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
“The Bible — the infallible word of God, except for the specific words marked here, and here, and here…”
It occurred to me the other day that something similar is happening to the Constitution. Once you trash the idea that the Constitution is authoritative, what happens to your precious Second Amendment? It’s a package deal, or it’s all up for debate — there’s no middle ground.
Listen Mr @I predicted Trump would win big in court:
While it is true that one is technically not fully convicted until sentenced, that really doesn’t seem like a strong argument. But if you think arguing semantics is the way to go, you do you.
And given your recent suggestion that Trump might win NY, that would suggest he got a trial by a jury that would have had some supporters on it.
Unless of course you are pulling all of this out of a place where the sun don’t shine.
Listen Mr @I predicted Trump would win big in court:
While it is true that one is technically not fully convicted until sentenced, that really doesn’t seem like a strong argument. But if you think arguing semantics is the way to go, you do you.
And given your recent suggestion that Trump might win NY, that would suggest he got a trial by a jury that would have had some supporters on it.
Unless of course you are pulling all of this out of a place where the sun don’t shine.
So when Trump commented there would be a bloodbath if he were not elected where these so called educated persons head. I guess they like playing Ostrich.
Eddie in CA, ask your in laws had Joe Biden paid off hookers, then lied about it while running for POTUS, how they would feel. Then tell them they are potential droppers of XYKLON B canisters. To explain, have them read this:
Hitler, in Mein Kampf: “that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation….”
The OSS psychological profile of Hitler described his use of the big lie:
His primary rules were: never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.
This describes Trump and his cultists to a T.
The very fact of the rush to use “convicted felon” signifies it was a show trial.
The very fact of the rush by the media to call Democrat Joe Biden President Elect on November 3, 2020 signifies that the election was fair and legitimate.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Indeed, Profe. “Committed Trump voters” won’t change their vote for anything because, well, they’re committed, but “committed Biden voters” are wishy-washy and might vote 3rd party? I don’t think JKB is aware that the terms he’s using don’t mean what he thinks they mean.
@wr:
I’m thinking that JKB and the others just do it for the shyts and giggles, anymore.
@Kathy: He doesn’t, but evangelicals needed to make a connection between Trump and being blessed by God. God using Cyrus to free the Jews becomes Trump freeing evangelicals from the oppression of living in one of least oppressive countries for evangelicals EVAH.
Steely Dan wrote a song about it: Pretzel Logic. It’s almost like…
… prophetic. [Eyeroll emoji]
@just nutha:
You’d think Moses would be better suited for that.