Tuesday’s Forum

Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. Mu Yixiao says:


    (Sorry. Couldn’t resist)

  2. Tony W says:

    Looking at the weather this morning, Florida seems like a nice place to live.

  3. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Tony W:

    Living at sea level in the semi-tropics has its disadvantages.

  4. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Tony W:

    I’ve never had a high opinion of my Brother in Law, so it wasn’t a surprise when he came out as a global warming denier after I questioned his announced move to Tampa. Chinese hoax and all that.

    They arrived 10 days ago. According to my Mother in Law, kind neighbors had enough extra water, tp, etc, to help them get through the next few days, but no one had any extra plywood for the windows of the house they just bought.

    That Chinese hoax is about to cause him a lot of pain.

  5. Kathy says:

    Checking on my predictions that cases would increase in the UK due to gatherings for the funerary rituals of the departed monarch, the Johns Hopkins website shows:

    Week ending in Sept. 18th, 2022: 31,739 cases
    Week ending in Sept. 26th, 2022: 37,209 cases

    That’s a 17% increase.

    The pandemic is still not over.

  6. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Tony W: I first read that as, “Looking at the weather this morning, Florida seems like a nice place to leave.”

  7. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Neil Hudelson: Gee, 5-10′ of storm surge with a nice topping of 15-20″ of rain. What’s not to like?

  8. Scott says:

    Meanwhile in Texas:

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton fled his home to avoid being served with subpoena, court record says

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton fled his home in a truck driven by his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, to avoid being served a subpoena Monday, according to an affidavit filed in federal court.

    Ernesto Martin Herrera, a process server, was attempting to serve the state’s top attorney with a subpoena for a federal court hearing Tuesday in a lawsuit from nonprofits that want to help Texans pay for abortions out of state.

    Boisterous agitators disrupt Hays County election machine test, badger Texas secretary of state

    About a dozen activists demanding responses to conspiracy theories about election integrity this week disrupted what is typically an uneventful public testing of voting machines ahead of an election in Hays County.

    The activists shouted at the county election administrator and Texas’s secretary of state, who was present for the testing. County officials said they’d never previously encountered such intense hostility at the routine event.

    The crowd surrounded members of the election test board — which consisted of political party representatives, county officials and election workers — who were assigned to test the machines, pressing in and looking over their shoulders.

  9. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Scott: Ken Paxton? This Ken Paxton?

    Paxton has been under indictment since 2015 on state securities fraud charges relating to activities prior to taking office. He has pleaded not guilty. In October 2020, several high-level assistants in Paxton’s office accused him of “bribery, abuse of office and other crimes”.[4][5]

    Now whodve ever thunk the right honorable AG would dodge a subpoena???

  10. Scott says:
  11. CSK says:

    Cuba has approved same-sex marriage and adoption, despite protests from the fundamentalists.

  12. OzarkHillbilly says:
  13. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Scott: Just a peach of a guy.

  14. Beth says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    The first thought I had was why didn’t the previous owners have a stash of plywood that just went with the house. Like, “here’s your plywood supply, make sure you rotate it so it doesn’t rot away in 6 months…”

    That would make too much sense though, especially after you’ve made the poor choice to move to FL.

  15. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Kyle Whitmire

    Most of Alabama GOP chairman John Wahl’s extended family have been blocked from voting because they won’t show photo ID.
    In a 2016 deposition, his brother explained why: They consider photo ID the mark of the beast foretold in Revelation.

  16. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Patrick Reevell

    Unbelievable video. Russian officer telling newly mobilized men they will need to source their own sleeping bags, med packs. Tells them to go buy tampons from pharmacies to use as bandages.
    “The only thing the army gives you in uniforms, armor. That’s it.”

    Ukraine is in trouble now. They’re about to be swamped by POWs.

  17. Kathy says:


    As per the morning’s news on CNN, it’s been years since a major storm hit the west coast of Florida. Hurricanes more commonly hit the east coast and the tip.


    Is anything not satanic to these people?

  18. KM says:

    Was just down there a few days ago and got stuck on the tarmac for 2 hrs till the lighting stopped and we could take off. It was nuts – the thunder and lighting were right on top of us as the storm seemed to have camped out over the airport. Kinda terrifying to hear Mother Nature raging when stuck in a thin flying tin can. I need Xanax to fly and needed to double the dose for the rough takeoff.

    Florida weather can be awesome but when it turns nasty, it’s effen’nasty.

  19. Kathy says:


    Hm. What if, say, Governor Newsom were to pay to fly excess Russian POW to Florida?

  20. Scott says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: I hope they take it to the Supreme Court. I want to hear what they say about how religious liberty applies here also.

  21. Beth says:

    For your amusement, allow me to present the rest of the absurdity of my day yesterday…

    After fighting with the crabbiest client on the planet and fighting with malcontent attorneys, my son got dropped off and I took him to his therapy appointment. While I was there, Paid Grandma called to chew me out. Apparently my daughter who is 6 going on Henry Kissinger crawled out of school, white as a ghost*, and told PG that I didn’t give her anything for lunch and that she was DYYYYYYYYYING of hunger. PG informed me that I am moron incapable of keeping my own children alive. She further informed me that they would be sleeping over the entire time my Partner is gone except for a brief sojourn each day where I had to help them with homework. I acquiesced and told her to re-feed my son who is 9 going on a really dorky version of John Hamm. She was not amused.

    Get him home from therapy, do the homework, fight with another client who couldn’t just say “I don’t understand any of this, do what’s best…”, and order dinner. Just as I’m about to go get my dinner I get a frantic text message from my son’s classmate’s dad asking if my son is ok and why is he in the hospital and if there is anything they can do. All I had left was a “what the fu&k” reaction gif. Turns out my Son inadvertently convinced his classmate that instead of therapy, he was going to the hospital and classmate turning it into something more insane.

    I finished off the night with some weird Southside Italian concoction, half a bottle of old fridge wine and the back half of Ms. Marvel. Which I thought was very cute and sobbed through.

    * so under normal circumstances my daughter’s skin tone can bounce between translucent and glow in the dark. My partner got all the Irish/Scots DNA of her Italian/Irish/Scots family and I look indistinguishable from my English and Welsh ancestors. Because genetics is insane, my daughter looks and acts like she chucks swords at passersby out of a lake on the English-Welsh border.

  22. Beth says:


    Huh, make sense, still I wouldn’t want to live in FL. Also:

    What if, say, Governor Newsom were to pay to fly excess Russian POW to Florida?

    I like the way you think. Modern problems require modern solutions.

  23. Franklin says:

    @Beth: wtf, I hope you’re working on a book about a day in your life. Or maybe a sitcom, yeah.

  24. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Kathy: I know they think I’m Satanic.

  25. Stormy Dragon says:


    I don’t know if Beth is exaggerating for comedic effect, but she always seems terribly underappreciated by her family =(

    Like particularly sadly it seem like her kids are deliberately trying to get her taken away, which just boggles my mind.

  26. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Stormy Dragon: Kids always exaggerate, especially when they are trying to get attention..

  27. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    Like particularly sadly it seem like her kids are deliberately trying to get her taken away, which just boggles my mind.

    Kids. All kids at some point. Part of parenthood is being hated intermittently.

  28. Stormy Dragon says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Maybe I’m just weird, but no matter how MAD I was at my parents I never dreamed of telling a stranger that, say, I was not being fed or I’d been hospitalized when I was not.

  29. inhumans99 says:


    Since this is an open thread, I feel that I should continue to regularly ask the following question (but I will try not to be THAT guy and not ask the question everyday, so as not to be too annoying): Why has Trump not been arrested yet???

    Okay, now with that out of the way, I want to say that I get it, America’s attention span can be like a goldfish at times, just flitting from one thought/subject to another without paying as much attention to certain issues as we all should (Global Warming, arresting Trump, fixing the immigration crisis in this country, etc.), and I suspect the shiny object of the mainstream media declaring Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan costing 400 Billion is what plenty of folks (at least “Conservatives”) are focused on for the moment.

    The thing is, as Kevin Drum points out, this number is the cost over a period of 30 years, so the actual percentage added to our deficit on an annual basis is something like 1.7%, so yeah…the plan adds to our debt but it sounds much scarier when you see the NYT reports the 400 Billion number and pretty much nothing else in their story headline (I can just picture folks saying 400 Billion dollars just like Austin Powers).

    The next time a conservative rants about the how the mainstream media is always pushing a liberal agenda I want to ball up a copy of the NYT and have them eat it. The NYT of all papers for Petes sake going with the clickbait article headline certainly does Liberals no favors.

  30. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Stormy Dragon:
    I don’t think Beth’s kid was actually trying to get rid of his mother. That’s just drama.

    Sometimes kids need to push back against someone, and guess who’s available? I now have a great relationship with my eldest who is 25, as evidenced by the fact that she comes to stay for a week or two at a time without being guilted into it. She actually seems to like us. (!) But Jesus, there were times when we would just rage at each other.

    By pushing buttons the kid learns useful lessons, the first being that no behavior of theirs will ever be outrageous enough, no denunciation will ever be harsh enough, or unfair enough to end a parent’s love. They test the relationship. Your job as parent is to ride that out and show the kid that you are there, you’re always going to be there, and you’re always going to try to do the best for the kid, even when the kid’s being an asshole.

  31. JohnSF says:

    And there’s this:

    Here’s a video of a Russian soldier who was mobilized recently. He was sent to the “1st tank regiment” (probably 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division) and says they will be sent to Kherson in 2 days without any basic training.

    Lots of similar cases being reported.

  32. Just nutha says:

    @Kathy: Very little non-satanic stuff in evangelical communities. ☹️

  33. Stormy Dragon says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    By pushing buttons the kid learns useful lessons, the first being that no behavior of theirs will ever be outrageous enough, no denunciation will ever be harsh enough, or unfair enough to end a parent’s love.

    Would that this were true for all parents.

  34. Mister Bluster says:

    @Michael Reynolds: …even when the kid’s being an asshole.

    My parents never spanked, hit or beat me or my siblings with their hands or anything else.
    One time I was mad about something that they wanted me to do when I was maybe 8 or nine years old. I suspect it was a weekend as they were both home in the middle of the day. I barricaded myself in my bedroom and it was all I could do to push on the small button that kept the door locked as they used the key from the other side to push the lock open. I guess I knew I would lose that battle as I had my Boy Scout pocket knife with the blade open in one hand and pointed at them as they finally pushed the door open. I can still see the shock on their faces as they looked at each other when they saw me threatening them with the knife.
    “You know that we have to take the knife away from you.” my dad said. I think I was crying as I said I was sorry.
    That was it. Eventually I got the knife back.

    Like I said, they never used any corporal punishment.
    Thanks Mom. Thanks Dad.

  35. Just nutha says:

    @Beth: If it’s not intrusive, what’s a “Paid Grandma?”

  36. Stormy Dragon says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    (Specifically, I’m not sure I would be capable of this, which is part of the reason I’ve never had children)

  37. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    My aunt is one of the kindest souls in the world. She’s a great-grandma now, but once upon a time was first a Kindergarten teacher, then a High School English teacher. Some stints as brownie leader and all the rest. It was a bit of a surprise to her when CPS came knocking because of what the dentist told them.

    See her son is just wildly allergic to mosquitos. Any mosquito bite has always swelled up to the size of an apricot. But when the dentist questioned him about the two big marks on his legs, this shortly after he and his mom fought, the 13 year old little sh!t said “yeah…it really hurts when mom puts out her cigarettes on me.”

    My aunt has never smoked in her life.

    Kids can be real POS’s.

  38. Kathy says:


    Why has Trump not been arrested yet???

    I can speculate on many reasons, but the bottom line is: if you find out, please let me know.

  39. dazedandconfused says:

    Jupiter is as close as as it has been to earth in 60 years, and in direct opposition with the sun. Unmistakable as it’s by far the brightest thing in the south western sky right now. One can pick out the moons with even a good set of binocs, as Galileo could with his crude 17th century telescope.

  40. grumpy realist says:

    @dazedandconfused: The shock to the then-existing mindset when it was reported that moons were in orbit around a separate heavenly body….

    ….and a lot of people absolutely refused to look through Galileo’s telescope to look at the evidence.

    Unfortunately, a lot of us haven’t become that much more mature when it comes to admitting evidence. (see: Global warming, COVID, vaccines, etc.)

  41. grumpy realist says:

    A good article on how the U.K.’s monetary shenanigans are impacting U.K. mortgages.

    (What were Truss et al. THINKING?! This is going to be 10 x what went wrong in Kansas.)

  42. Franklin says:

    @Stormy Dragon: Those first five words of your sentence … I’ve certainly heard it before and know what is meant, but can anybody parse the actual grammar there?

  43. Beth says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    So my kids are intense little beings that don’t understand their power or the ramifications of its use. My son is a conventionally handsome, tall, white boy (hence John Hamm). He’s also super polite and earnest (anxiety riddled) and just a human labrador. So when people talk to him they think he’s older and more mature than he is and if he can hold his Mr. Peanutbutter side together long enough, adults will believe whatever nonsense spews out of his mouth.

    My daughter looks like a tiny Celtic fairy princess but in actuality is the demon spawn of Harley Quinn and Henry Kissinger. The older she gets the stronger her ability to talk adults into doing things just increases as she gains control of her powers. Coupled with a profound sense of comic timing and affect, an innate sense of how to apply chaos and a fundamental lack of fear of anxiety, she’s dangerous. She once talked a stranger into buying her and her brother ice cream sundaes. She’s six.

    The biggest problem that we have with each other is that they haven’t figured out that I am the parent that will give them the widest possible latitude, but has the hardest boundaries. My partner on the other hand gives them very little latitude, but has very porous boundaries, which causes me to be the enforcer. Sorry kiddos, I was abused as a kid and have a superpower called “Dissociation!” you can rage all you want at me, I’m not there. Thanks repurposed maladaptive coping mechanism.

    Once the two of them get old enough to actually function as a team they will be dangerous.


    Kids always exaggerate, especially when they are trying to get attention..

    And when they don’t get enough attention as kids, they keep doing it as adults. Or so I’ve been told once or 12 times.

    @Mister Bluster:

    Corporal punishment never works they way that maniacs want it to. My parents never really hit me other than a couple of times. Most of their abuse was emotional/psychological. I have huge gaps in my memories particularly of my childhood. I don’t remember the pain of being hit, or what I did, but I perfectly remember the terror of being hit by my dad.

    @Just nutha:

    If it’s not intrusive, what’s a “Paid Grandma?”

    So I’m estranged from my family and my partner’s family is 6 hours away. When the kids were born we got hooked up with an in home daycare that was basically winding down towards retirement. She’s old Southside Mexican and he’s and older Chinese immigrant* and they are married to each other. They are adorable. Our kids ended up being the last kids they watched and then our families just kinda folded together. We go on vacations together. They randomly drop off food and presents. They have become like replacement grandparents, we just pay them to watch the kids. They are amazing.

    *so he’s a wild dude, immigrated to the US and learned to speak English on the Southside of Chicago, fought in the Vietnam War, owned a bunch of Chinese restaurants. Wild dude with a Wild accent. Imagine the SNL Superfans skit, with those exact “Da Bears” accents, but performed by old Chinese men. Because he and my daughter have pair bonded like Master Blaster from Bartertown, my daughter has the same exact accent.

  44. Lounsbury says:

    @grumpy realist: Fiscal, not monetary. Bank of England has not actually taken any monetary action.

    The mad hatter governing team under Madame Truss however have undertaken some truly bizarre fiscal policy demarches, which can indeed be called shenanigans.

    @Kathy: It is very simple, actual successful legal cases – ex partisan political kangaroo courts – are rather harder to execute on than Partisan Natterers can allow themselves to understand.

  45. Lounsbury says:

    Of rather greater interest than permanent foolish whinging on about Trump
    FT Headline

    Denmark, Germany and Poland warn of ‘sabotage’ after Nord Stream leaks
    Berlin says Russia’s involvement cannot be excluded after damage to gas pipelines at centre of Europe’s energy crisis

    Sweden’s National Seismology Centre said it had detected two powerful blasts the day before in the area of the gas leaks. “There is no doubt that these were explosions,” Björn Lund, a member of the seismic network, told Swedish state broadcaster SVT.

    Note the placement is close to where the new Norwegian Baltic pipeline to Poland has just begun operations.

    Little blue men-ish.

  46. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Neil Hudelson: The dentist couldn’t tell the difference between an insect bite and a cigarette burn? REALLY?

    This story may really be a comment on the degree to which some states’ Mandatory Reporter laws warp the investigation process. I don’t know how to solve that problem, though.

  47. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Franklin: Easy. Elided subject /I/ coupled with a subjunctive case “would” indicating a condition contrary to fact. That is, not all parents have the qualities under discussion.

  48. JohnSF says:

    Time to put a NATO standing ASW patrol on top of the Baltpipe

  49. Gustopher says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    no one had any extra plywood for the windows of the house they just bought.

    Why don’t houses there have nice wooden shutters that can be swung into place to protect the windows?

    If you live in Arizona, you get air conditioning. If you live in hurricane prone areas, you should be similarly prepared for in inevitable.

  50. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Beth: Thanks for the explanation.

    “Corporal punishment never works they way that maniacs want it to.”

    No, but then again, the maniacs manage to corrupt any kind of discipline method they use to turn it cruel and vindictive. We may be better off when physical violence is their only tool. (Note: I will not be crossing the street to debate this point with anyone. Disagree if you want; disagreement is perfectly cromulent to me.)

  51. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker: In my previous comment, “subjunctive case” should have been “subjunctive mood.” My apologies, but I haven’t done grammar professionally and every day for almost a decade now.

  52. Gustopher says:


    They consider photo ID the mark of the beast foretold in Revelation.

    It might be nice to start promoting this in the evangelical community, and an ominous “papers please” in the Q community. If it catches on, the Republican VoterID laws might save this country.

  53. Beth says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    I think I understand your point and on first chew don’t know if I disagree with you. As, functionally, the victim of several different forms of crappy parental discipline, I just wish people would be forced into therapy to deal with their own abuse before downloading that into their kids. One thing I say all the time is that my job is to be a dam holding back all the generational abuse that was inflicted on me and my sisters so that my kids don’t carry that on.

    **he ha! scored an edit and fixxed a typo.

  54. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    In yesterday’s discussion of conspicuous consumption as it relates to our commentariat’s drinking habits, someone quoted a review of a whisky:

    Mouth: the burnt wood theme continues, also adding a slightly acrid touch of scorched sage with a drops of herbal bitters. Iodine and sea shells. The bitter edge is quickly balanced by caramel sweetness, cinnamon, aniseed and some nutty notes. While there was a fruity element on the nose, it doesn’t appear in the mouth. Vanilla and wood spice towards the end.

    Finish: long, with cigarette ashes, tarry notes, black peppercorns and rubber.

    I hve to say, that doesn’t SOUND like it’s anything that I would want to buy or drink more than once by mistake.

  55. CSK says:

    Trump has demoted his $3 million up front lawyer, Chris Kise, after less than a month. I suppose Kise tried to give him some real, actual, legitimate legal advice.

  56. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Beth: “One thing I say all the time is that my job is to be a dam holding back all the generational abused that was inflicted on me and my sisters so that my kids don’t carry that on.”

    Ayup. That may well be either job one or a significant part of it. I wish you success in that endeavor.

  57. Lounsbury says:

    @JohnSF: Afraid yes, Mr Putin is now playing a very very very dangerous game.

  58. Stormy Dragon says:


    One thing I say all the time is that my job is to be a dam holding back all the generational abuse that was inflicted on me and my sisters so that my kids don’t carry that on.

    This Be The Verse


    They fuck you up, your mum and dad.
    They may not mean to, but they do.
    They fill you with the faults they had
    And add some extra, just for you.

    But they were fucked up in their turn
    By fools in old-style hats and coats,
    Who half the time were soppy-stern
    And half at one another’s throats.

    Man hands on misery to man.
    It deepens like a coastal shelf.
    Get out as early as you can,
    And don’t have any kids yourself.

  59. JohnSF says:

    Bank response is going to come soon.
    And it’s not going to be fun.
    Mortgage lenders are already suspending new offers pending clarity.

  60. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Michael Reynolds: By pushing buttons the kid learns useful lessons, the first being that no behavior of theirs will ever be outrageous enough, no denunciation will ever be harsh enough, or unfair enough to end a parent’s love.

    This, x 1,000.

    When my youngest got caught up in the juvenile court system he was ordered to go to counseling. Personal, once a week, group, once a week, family once a week. My ex never participated, in fact interfered a time or 3. It was a pain in the ass, but I took him to every session when the ex didn’t disappear with him (and when she did I went anyway, just to show that he had at least one parent who was trying) In a group session the counselor asked my son how he felt about things. It was all I was the worst person in the world, how much he hated me and that if I wouldn’t go away he hoped I would die.

    The counselor looked at me and asked if I had anything to say in reply.

    I said something along the lines of, “CJ… I know you hate me. I know you want me to just go the fuck away and to never see me again. I’m not gonna do that. No matter how much you hate me, I love you more. No matter how hard you push me away, I will never abandon you. I love you enough to accept all your hatred, absorb it, and return it with nothing but the love I have for you.” I said a few more things too and by the time I was finished it had gotten very quiet in the room. And when I was done he was looking at me with new eyes. For the first time in 2 years I felt hope again.

    When she finally went to prison, he came to live with me and the first few months he kept telling me that when she got out he was moving back in with her. I just said, “OK.” and crossed my fingers. Just before she got out, he came to me and said that she and her husband needed time to reconnect and he was going to stay with my wife and I. I breathed a very big sigh of relief. After finally getting a taste of living with normal people, he had decided against returning to the crazy.

    FTR, he calls me once a week from NOLA just to talk about stuff, especially about his daughter who was absolutely entranced with Pawpaw when we were there in March. His 2nd daughter arrives in December and we will travel that way soon thereafter.

  61. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Mister Bluster: Growing up, I got spanked from time to time. Worse, I had an abusive nun for a teacher 2 years in a row, who subjected her students to violence on a daily basis. I have a very deep streak of violence in my soul, one I dare not give free rein to. It was my eldest son who finally taught me that raising a hand to a child for any reason is just plain wrong. My youngest son can thank him for the fact that he never got swatted/spanked/whatever.

  62. Beth says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    Hopefully, thanks to lots and lots of therapy I’ll leave my kids less worse off than my parents left me. Then one day when they are old enough to understand, they can start to be read into the full picture so they don’t do what my parents and their parents did. It’s morbidly hilarious once you figure out the patterns in your life caused by things you didn’t or couldn’t deal with.

    @Stormy Dragon:

    One of the more aggravating qualities of my mom is her steadfast belief that if you’re a victim of abuse, you cannot be an abuser. Under her belief, victimhood is a badge and a weight that absolves you of your own actions. “I never treated you as bad as my parents you ungrateful so and so…” Bleh.

  63. Beth says:


    I was having a tough time figuring it out from the article, but what are the typical mortgage products like over there. I don’t think anyone really does the 30 year fixed residential like the U.S. does, but I couldn’t figure out why there would be a large re-fi panic.

  64. Lounsbury says:

    JP Morgan

    By delaying expectations on when rates will next be set, the BoE is allowing some space for the government to do something in the meantime to stabilise the situation. If successful, that will reduce the amount by which the BoE ultimately has to raise rates . . . Unless something more concrete comes from the Chancellor prior to the next meeting, which . . . there is little indication of at the moment, we think the BoE will be forced to validate market rate expectations or else risk delivering a dovish disappointment which ends up raising longer term inflation expectations.

    On the other hand, my London meetings next week now are significantly cheaper on my Euro budget. I will resist making the observation to my colleagues.

    But I would not very much like to be either any person with any kind of variable rate line of credit in UK. Some epic pain is coming unless (contrary to all evidence against them being able to do so) the Team Truss somehow realises they have utterly buggered themselves and walks back their mad hatter economic demarche. Although this column is amusing, Truss learns the hard way that Britain isn’t America

  65. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Beth: my job is to be a dam holding back all the generational abuse that was inflicted on me and my sisters so that my kids don’t carry that on.

    Well said and whole heartedly agree. I have tried very hard to be a better parent than my parents were (and they were good parents, but nobody is perfect) and have told my sons repeatedly that their job is to be a better parent than I was, and they already are.

  66. Mu Yixiao says:


    I never got spanked, but my older siblings certainly did (they deserved it, while I was a good boy 😀 )

    When my parents got married (second for both of them), they each had a son. Dad’s son lived with his mother in Chicago, while Mom’s son lived with her, but spent weekends with his own dad.

    When they finally got married, Bob (Mom’s son) did the whole “You’re not my dad. I don’t have to listen to you” routine. Dad’s reply was simple: “You think you can take me? Let’s go. You win, and you can do whatever you want. I win? It’s my house, my rules.” Now… you have to understand that at 14, Bob was pushing 6′ and 180lbs of muscle. Dad was all of 5′-7″, and maybe 150lbs–but grew up in 1920’s Chicago, ran with the mob, served in WWII, and rode with an outlaw biker gang (before Mom tamed him).

    Bob went for it. Dad laid him out flat. Grudging acceptance followed.

    A couple years later, same thing–with a taller and stronger Bob. Dad replied with the same response. Bob went for it. Dad laid him out flat. From that point on, it became a relationship of respect. Dad earned it the only way that Bob would understand.

    It should be noted that there are 5 of us kids in the family–1 each from previous marriages, and three from the 2nd. Every one of us is treated the same. I have two “brothers” (never referred to as “half-brothers” unless it’s important to clarify)–despite the fact that until the age of 18 I’d only seen Joey twice and talked to him once. 🙂

  67. Beth says:


    I said something along the lines of, “CJ… I know you hate me. I know you want me to just go the fuck away and to never see me again. I’m not gonna do that. No matter how much you hate me, I love you more. No matter how hard you push me away, I will never abandon you. I love you enough to accept all your hatred, absorb it, and return it with nothing but the love I have for you.” I said a few more things too and by the time I was finished it had gotten very quiet in the room. And when I was done he was looking at me with new eyes. For the first time in 2 years I felt hope again.

    That reminded me of a time my mom and I were having a fight about something. I was in High School at the time. I was sitting at a counter in our kitchen and she reared back to slap me. I was well into not allowing people doing violence against me without a response. Even if I got my ass kicked I was going to meet violence with violence. So I stood up and got ready to fight. That was the first time she realized 1. I was my own person and not an extension of her (didn’t stick) and 2. I was a full foot and a half taller than her. I was perfectly calm, she ran away terrified.

    A couple of years ago before I finally went no contact with her I begged her to do therapy with me. She told me she was too old and it wasn’t worth it. That was the second to last step for me. Our relationship ended roughly 4-5 months later.

    I would much rather have your ending.

  68. grumpy realist says:

    @Beth: I was curious about that as well and did some Google-fu on how U.K. mortgages are set up. Looks like the bulk of those “fixed-rate” mortgages aren’t that fixed rate. You get a fixed rate for 2-10 years, then it turns into a floating rate dingus for the rest of the mortgage term, which may be up to 40 years but is normally 25.

    Our “totally fixed rate, pay back early with no penalty” 10, 15, or 30 year mortgages don’t seem to exist in the U.K.

    They’re also missing the equivalent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so the secondary market for mortgages…..doesn’t exist?

  69. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Beth: I have never understood people’s fear of counseling. When I was going thru all that shit, up until my ex went to prison, I had a lot of anger and keeping the violence inside me bottled up was getting ever harder. So I went to counseling. The counselor and I never hit it off and we had some very different ideas of how to deal with the problems of life, but I wasn’t looking for a friend, and I didn’t want someone to give me the answers to my problems. I just needed somebody who wouldn’t let me retreat into cheap rationalizations, and that she managed very well.

  70. JohnSF says:

    @grumpy realist:
    That’s about it.
    The only institution that went in for “securitisng” mortgages in a big way was Northern Rock.
    Which worked fine; until it didn’t.
    Essentially it borrowed in the markets on the back of its mortgages as security, in order to fund new mortgages. And in order to pay back on previous loan interest.
    And so the happy cycle spun on; until in 2008 it found new funds drying up, nobody wanted mortgages as security except at nose-bleeding term, and previous lenders started to demand repayment in full.

    Most of the rest of the mortgage business kept right side-up, because everyone knew the borrowers would get the pain when the fixed-rate came up for renegotiation.
    And most (not all) could endure that pain because mortgage lending to people with on marginal affordability far less common than in the US.

    Another point: IIRC in US most mortgage borrowers can, at last resort, just hand over the deeds and walk away?
    In UK, nope.
    If your property value is below the mortgage value if get repossessed, you are on the hook for the balance of the loan, and lord help your sorry hide.

  71. Stormy Dragon says:


    Those first five words of your sentence

    See definition 12 at: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/would

  72. wr says:

    @CSK: “I suppose Kise tried to give him some real, actual, legitimate legal advice.”

    Or asked where the check was.

  73. CSK says:


    I think Kise demanded the 3 million up front, as would anyone with a gram of sense.

  74. Beth says:

    @grumpy realist:

    Floating Rate Dingus. Love it and will be using that. Thankfully I don’t see many of those these days. The Clients I do tend to be smug in their belief that NOTHING will ever go wrong for them.

    I don’t think our standard mortgages occur really anywhere in the world. It takes a housing policy of making as many homeowners as possible and backing that with the weight of the government to make it work. We’re pretty lucky that 08 didn’t entirely nuke us. I remember my first 5 or so closings as an attorney ended in scream matches/knife fights.


    Another point: IIRC in US most mortgage borrowers can, at last resort, just hand over the deeds and walk away?

    Theoretically at least. In IL there is a statute that if you get foreclosed on and the bank takes it back then any deficiency is wiped out automatically.

    Other than that, it’s some combination of stupid, pointless, and not possible. The only times I see attorneys going for a deficiency is when someone pissed them off real bad and they are trying to bury them (and get paid to do it) or when someone is loaded and the attorney knows it.

  75. Michael Reynolds says:

    The thing non-parents don’t understand about the whole unconditional love thing is that it’s not some magic potion. It doesn’t fix everything, certainly not quickly. But it is, in the end, the best approach* and I think it comes closest to one’s duty as a parent.

    *Although there were times when boarding school in some faraway place did sound attractive. I could finish high school.

  76. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Beth: Before my uncle in New Zealand died, he once told me about the process for obtaining mortgages (yes plural) for purchase of real estate. Their first house took about 3 or 4 notes of different amounts, terms, and interest rates. I assume that it becomes easier to buy subsequent homes because the equity from your first home reduces the total number of loans you need–unless you’re buying in Aukland or Wellington, where home prices are Manhattan-level crazy. (2 bdrm, 2 bath 100 sq. m. condo for $1.25 million)

    All in all, it looked to me like the plan was to mostly keep people OUT OF home ownership. Then again, who wants people who work as laborers and shop girls owning their own homes? What’s the advantage to THAT?

  77. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Michael Reynolds: The thing non-parents don’t understand about the whole unconditional love thing is that it’s not some magic potion.

    I have some father/son friends who are on the outs. If I thought it would do any good, I would slap the piss out of both of them, but neither would listen.

    My son and I…. It’s hard to explain to someone who hasn’t been there, but there were a thousand different turns we could have taken and ended up someplace else. But we ended up here. I am grateful.

  78. Franklin says:

    @Stormy Dragon: That’s actually the key I needed, thank you

  79. Franklin says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker: That did teach me something, too, but it was the fact that I didn’t actually grasp that would could mean wish that made your comment pertinent to me.

  80. grumpy realist says:

    @JohnSF: The whole “jingle-key abandonment” thing is only available in certain states–California was notorious for having people using it rather than going through foreclosure back in the 2000s. Send the keys back to the bank and walk away….

    @Beth: I remember when I started looking seriously into possible house-buying (pre-2007) and would get “explanations” of the different mechanisms of funding. My feeling was: “if I, someone with a Ph.D. in theoretical physics, can’t understand their explanation of how the financing works, nope nope nopity nope.” So when it came time for me to purchase, I went for a pure bog-standard fixed-rate 15 year mortgage. (Did catch a bit of a falling knife simply due to timing, but was able to refinance into a cheap 10 year mortgage and paid everything off earlier this year. Now I just have to deal with the fact that Cook County still hasn’t sent out the second half of the 2021 property taxes which is bollixing up my budgeting software.)

  81. Kurtz says:

    Sending best wishes to gVOR. I’m about 100 miles south. According to AccuWeather, peak wind for us will be 1400 til 1600. It says about 115 mph.

  82. CSK says:

    I have relatives in Venice, Florida. Stay safe.

  83. Beth says:

    @grumpy realist:

    I’m willing to bet those tax bills come out on November 9. When that happens we should burn the county building to the ground.

    Also, if I seem unhinged here, its cause I’ve lost three good paying clients because of the Assessor’s office. Plus countless unbillable hours fighting with them. I want to scream in that guys face so bad.

  84. Kurtz says:


    Thanks. I hope you’re holding up well.

  85. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Franklin: Some would undoubtedly say that “wish” is elided too, but I’m familiar with the particular structure, so that wouldn’t occur to me.

  86. Mister Bluster says:


    The terror in our family was disease. Not long after my sister was born in 1955 our mother changed from a normal person to one suddenly subject to fits of anger then rage almost overnight. She was diagnosed schizophrenic. This was before any drugs were available to manage the symptoms. While she threatened violence she never did actually hit anyone. Once when my father was out she threatened to crush my brothers head in with the toaster. He couldn’t have been more than 3 0r 4 years old. I remember her holding the toaster over his head screaming and yelling at him and him crying and begging her not to hit him. As quickly as the rage came on her she relented. I don’t know what stopped her. My father told me that he was truly afraid that she might kill us. He had to go to court to have her committed to the State Hospital where she underwent electroshock therapy. Her confinement to the institutions lasted months and even years while she suffered all kinds of hallucinations. Finally the drugs were developed to manage her condition. It was about ten years after this curse beset upon her that she was able to come home and live a somewhat normal life. My father stuck with her through all of this. His main task was to be sure that she stayed on her medication. She did with a few slip ups. Because of his dedication to her she was able to live at home and did not have to be institutonalized again. They were married 60 years when he died.

  87. DK says:

    @Mister Bluster: Hugs.

    Your father seems heroic.

  88. Matt says:

    @Gustopher: Where I used to live on the gulf coast the nicer houses had built in metal shutters that could be rolled down over the windows with some having similar for the doors. A lot of houses have attachment points setup so protective coverings can be pulled out of storage and snapped/bolted in place. A cheaper alternative that is no less secure.

    I have no idea why you would make an investment in a house in a hurricane prone area and NOT at least bring some plywood with you. Personally I would have the ready to go mount system as it’s quite cheap insurance.

    There was one house in particular that I always joked I would take over if the zombie apocalypse happened because it was basically a fortress of metal protection. Whoever owned the house clearly had it as a second or third house as it was shuttered up most of the year.

    @OzarkHillbilly: I ran into that stuff from people in my home town. They specifically mean the Real ID requirements as being the mark of the beast. Non Real ID identification was perfectly fine though…