USA Passes 250,000 Dead from COVID-19
Yet another grim milestone.
Thanks to sheer incompetence and indifference on the part of the Trump administration, combined with reckless disregard for their fellow citizens on the part of far too many Americans, we are now beyond almost all the worst-case forecasts when the novel coronavirus hit our shores in February.
According to Worldometers, we passed the quarter-million dead mark yesterday.
The daily death toll is now almost as high as it was when we had much of the country in a partial lockdown in an effort to “flatten the curve.”
The only good news, aside from the real hope that a viable vaccine is expected to start being available in January, is that the death rate seems to be going way down. That, alas, is because of the very bad news that the daily cases are exploding:
Despite far more people getting sick than at the previous peak of the crisis, they’re dying at a far lower rate. Presumably, that’s both a function of our healthcare professionals having developed better protocols and the first wave disproportionately killing the most vulnerable.
People are dying at a far lower rate, which likely will mean that they will end up in hospital longer, occuping ICU beds, etc longer, then add to that that more people are getting covid. No free ICU beds, etc or staff to treat them, which would likely lead to more deaths…
Here’s my usual note for future reference that per WIKI we lost 419,400 dead to WWII. That took almost four years.
Bear in mind Mary L. Trump predicting Trump would go out breaking things.
Don’t expect this administration to be doing much.
We are poised to be adding a million or more cases a week.
Meanwhile, the President is ranting about himself.
Much more young people proportionately in the recent infections. But also, there is a lag, people currently dying reflect the new case rate from 3 weeks ago or so. On the other thread, I posted new cases are currently double two weeks ago.
Washington Post:
Not to mention, many of the people who are being saved are left with serious health problems. Some of them are so disabled they can no longer work. There are no effective treatments, and nobody has any idea what will happen to survivors years or decades down the road.
I fear surviving C19 way more than I do dying of it.
1957 “Asian Flu” H2N2 – 116,000 US deaths out of population of 172 million (0.07% of population), R naught of 1.65
2020 Covid-19 – 250,000 US Deaths out of population of 331milliom (0.075% of population, R naught of 2.5
Not a Trump fan, but I’m curious what percentage of Covid-19 deaths do you think a competent leader (like Eisenhower in 1957) could have prevented?
An embedded video here with closed captioning:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1327481868200124416
Current new cases in El Paso: 181.5/100K, just a bit higher than ND and SD.
@Jack Kelly: There’s no way to know the counter factual but a conservative estimate is about half of the deaths are attributable to Trump’s malfeasance.
@charon: The video is shocking and terrifying, and exactly the result we have been anticipating. It’s shocking but entirely predictable.
@charon: @Dutchgirl: We ain’t seen nothing yet.
@OzarkHillbilly: I sadly agree.
Here in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, we are the lone spot that’s staying level at about 100 cases per day and manageable hospital bed use. Our Lt Governor is an ER doc and has been a trusted and effective public communicator. As we worry about re-opening to tourists, possibly from hot spots, he pointed out that in those areas it is very hard to get a COVID test within the timeline parameters set to enter Hawaii without quarantine. Those areas are way behind in testing. Winter is coming.
@James Joyner: so we’re half of the 1957 flu deaths attributed to the president, that pathogen was less contagious?
@Jack Kelly: Please remember that 250,000 deaths is to date. And the Eisenhower number is for the end of the 2-year run of Asian Flu. If Covid-19 runs as long as Spanish Flu or Asian Flu did, we’re about a third of the way through.
Adjusting for sequence, not entirely fair I will admit, gives us ~40,000 at that stage compared to 250,000 at the approximate same phase in the range. You seem to be good at math, so I’ll let you crunch the R-naughts. Although we may get lucky, have zero additional deaths [eyeroll emoji], and then Trump’s handling will only look hamfisted.
@Jack Kelly:
It also should be pointed out that medical care is far more advanced than it was 60+ years ago. If the Asian flu happened in today’s healthcare environment, far more people would have survived.
@Jack Kelly: Half the deaths? It appears to me, though I’m not as good at maths as you are, 250,000/330 million is about the same as 116,000/172 million. And again, we’re matching the death rate only one third to halfway through the course we might expect of the epidemic.
Maybe I am as good at maths as you are. Hmmm…
@James Joyner: Its not just Trump. Mitch McConnell has refused to conduct oversight and the Republican Supreme Court has made it clear that Republican Administration officials are free to ignore subpoenas from the Democratic house.
The modern Republican Party is an active harm to the citizens of the US and the world.
State of Utah statement on what it means for hospital resources to be maxed out:
The Republican Governor of Wyoming just called the anti-maskers knuckleheads, and I almost fell out of my chair laughing. I suspect our Governor has decided not to run for a second term and has no fucks left to give.
https://oilcity.news/community/health/2020/11/15/gordon-all-things-are-on-the-table-in-next-round-of-state-health-orders/?fbclid=IwAR0Poe_P9DnrZuwlKDSv4qln5SQnyBINiQgqSjtDmgOa5SOgtyZmqVnDdfU
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
‘Maths,’ eh? Plural? Hmmm?
Well, well, well, our supposed ‘ignint cracker’ is clearly. . . drumroll. . . British!
I oppose the pluralization of ‘math’ as a needless and injurious slur on all who, like me, can’t even do one math let alone multiple maths.
By the way, the notion, dear to many, of cutting pay to doctors and nurses to control health care costs, has been stomped into the mud for at least 20 years. What the RAF were to Britain in 1940, these doctor and nurses are in this country, now. So much owed to so few.
@Michael Reynolds: As with our brave armed forces, who is getting the money does not align very well with who is doing the dirty work. If Medicare can negotiate rates that doctors will accept, it’s hard to argue that paying 10x that much for the same service is appropriate, just because the patient isn’t a member of a group with a strong advocate.
I’m all for compensating the front line fighters against COVID appropriately — but that’s not what’s driving up everyone’s healthcare costs. Europe has proven that medicine can be a lot cheaper, and yet better, than the way we do it here. The trick is to unionize the patients, in effect.
It’s about to get horrific. SD, ID, WY, ND, MT, have no idea what’s coming their way.
I keep using this quick anecdote to show people what’s coming.
Assume you have a 5 acre lake. In that lake is one single lily pad. That lily pad doubles in size every day, and completely covers the surface of the lake in exactly 30 days.
How many days does it take to get the lake 1/8 filled with lily pads? 27
How many days does it take to get the lake 1/4 filled with lily pads?28
How many days does it take to get the lake 1/2 filled with lily pads? 29
Most of these states are in day 23 or 24. What’s coming is horrible.
They can’t stay outside. It’s too cold.
1st million cases in USA: 98 days
2nd million cases in USA: 44 days
3rd million cases in USA: 26 days
4th million cases in USA: 14 days
5th million cases in USA: 10 days
6th million cases in USA: 6 days
As of Friday I am a case. (Confirmed)
Suspected as much for a week so I isolated.
Nothing intense. Fever, chills. Body aches on the big bones. Coughing but not harshly so. Slept for 18 hours out of 24 one day in bursts.
Sucks. I had worse. Today was better.
I was so careful.