What Lesson Will Iran Learn From Libya?

My co-blogger Steven Taylor makes this observation about where Libya finds itself eight years after surrendering ts nuclear weapons research program:

It struck me as ironic that just under eight years ago Gaddafi specifically engaged in a course of action clearly intended to forestall US military action against his regime and that, despite that, he is now under military attack from the US and its allies.

Moreover: if he had actually acquired just one nuclear weapon, the current actions would likely not be taking place.

If you are Mahmoud Ahmedinejad or one of the Iranian mullahs, what lesson do you derive from Libya’s experience?

FILED UNDER: Middle East, Quick Takes, United Nations, World Politics, ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. james says:

    I think the race is on, We will see who is first.
    Not a pleasent further.

  2. Chad S says:

    Qaddafi also has a large stockpile of chem weapons, but I don’t think that A equals B here. Qaddafi is being attacking for the civil war that broke out in Libya not what any WMDs he had or gave up. If a civil war like what happened in Libya broke out, I doubt that nuke would deter action since the Mullahs would use it against the rebels first(or not at all)

  3. james says:

    Futher (sp)

  4. Chad,

    The point of the question is this. If Libya were a nuclear power nobody would have dared intervene in their internal affairs

  5. DC Loser says:

    I think this point was made very obvious by our actions in Iraq 8 years ago. Now the right wing has finally seen the light of that folly.

  6. TG Chicago says:

    Wait, so this is a post that links to another post on this same blog with no real extra information? So incestuous!

    Honestly, when I read the headline on the main page, I was thinking “Did Mataconis just link to the balloon-juice post that links to Taylor’s OTB post?” Because that would have been pretty funny. But this is just weird.

    Anyway, I can only hope Dodd puts up a post linking to this one, but disagreeing for no clear logical reason.

  7. TG,

    I raised this question in a comment to Steven’s post but felt it deserved space of its own.

  8. TG Chicago says:

    I thought Taylor clearly inferred that on his own. Balloon Juice picked up on in it, as did ponce in the thread. Whatever…

  9. Boyd says:

    In the interests of answering the question instead of engaging in a pointless effort of oneupsmanship…

    Mahmoud holds on to his nukes with all his power, no doubt. Right, wrong or indifferent, he perceives those possessions as his talisman against attack. He may be wrong, but NATO’s attack on Libya can push him in no other direction, IMHO.

  10. john personna says:

    How dumb would iran have to be, to be learning anything from this?

    They themselves have been bombed, and they themselves were vulnerable during internal strife. They already want nukes, they already manage a police state.

    Sheesh, why do we play dumb?

  11. JonathanInTelAviv says:

    Ahmadinejad wants nukes regardless of what’s going on in Libya.

    The more important question is, what lesson will the Iranian opposition learn from Lybia?
    They might conclude that the US and Europe won’t let the mullahs use their air force against a revolt.

  12. moptop says:

    Same lesson they learned from Iraq. There is no achievable level of conventional force that can stop the US from busting up your country in a big way if the US is so inclined.

  13. moptop says:

    That is not to say that I disapprove of Obama’s actions. Lockerbie is a blood debt. Oil leases and cowering are not going to pay it back.

  14. Rick Caird says:

    I think Iran continues to conclude that our current President is terrified of committing US forces unilaterally. So, if Iran can convince Germany or France not to commit forces, the US is effectively neutralized.

  15. James Benevelous says:

    From Chad S Qaddafi is being attacking for the civil war that broke out in Libya not what any WMDs he had or gave up.

    Where did you get that from? The CSPAN coverage of the Congressional debate? The President’s address to the nation on the case for war against Libya? Because I missed both of those, so I have absolutely no idea why we’re at war with Libya.

  16. soleh hudin says:

    i think iran should keep and continue the iranian nuclear program and don’t ever to stop it cause when the iranian goverment stop nuclear program israel united states dan britain maybe will attack iran. iran should learn from libya after the nuclear program stop libya so and send them to russia united states and it’s allies so easy to attack libya. don’t ever make a mistake again…

  17. JonathanInTelAviv says:

    Soleh,
    Your comment doesn’t make sense. Iran doesn’t have the bomb now, and yet nobody’s attacking Iran.
    Libya never had the bomb, and wasn’t attacked until they started massacring their own citizens.

  18. soleh hudin says:

    Jonathan,

    I Just Remember about saddam hwhen he was destroyed his own missiles scud and many more after that united states and it’s allies attack saddam for no reason i think’s united states and it’s aalies don’t have the win until this time. destroyed saddam regime just bring the pain for iraqi people i don’t see that people in iraq have save place to live right now. israel and united states are the same they want muslim gone from the earth . i just hope we can live together in peace and no war. world war III just bring the destruction to the world. when we can live in peace everything looks so beautiful.

  19. soleh hudin says:

    Jonathan,

    I Just Remember about saddam when he was destroyed his own missiles scud and many more after that united states and it’s allies attack saddam for no reason i think’s united states and it’s allies don’t have the win until this time. destroyed saddam regime just bring the pain for iraqi people i don’t see that people in iraq have save place to live right now. israel and united states are the same they want muslim gone from the earth . i just hope we can live together in peace and no war. world war III just bring the destruction to the world. when we can live in peace everything looks so beautiful….