Whelan, Griner, and the State of Our Politics
Knowing what FNC is likely saying without watching FNC.
This post is about impressions and really is suggestive of a research question more than any kind of conclusion. But, I am finding a lot of reactions to Brittney Griner’s release to be rather telling about the state of our politics (and our media environment, but perhaps I repeat myself). This is also one of those times where I feel pretty certain what Fox News is saying about a subject without having to actually watch Fox News.
Let me start with stark facts: the United States government negotiated a deal with the Russian government wherein an American being charged with drug offenses in Russia was released into US custody in exchange for a Russian national, Viktor Bout, serving a lengthy sentence in the United States for arms dealing and related crimes. Bout’s nickname is “The Merchant of Death.”
We know that the US government was unable to secure the release of another American being held, Paul Whelan, who has been
Anything else about this exchange becomes speculation. We do not know specificallty why the US was unable to secure the release of Whelan, who has been held since 2018. CNN reports that to secure Whelan’s release, a spy being held by Germany on murder charges was requested.
US officials made quiet inquiries to the Germans about whether they might be willing to include Krasikov in the trade, a senior German government source told CNN earlier this year. But ultimately, the US was not able to secure Krasikov’s release. The German government was not willing to seriously consider including Krasikov –who assassinated a Georgian citizen in broad daylight in Berlin in 2019 – in a potential trade, the German source said.
The US made several other offers to the Russians, sources said, to try to get them to agree to include Whelan in the swap. Among the names floated by the US was Alexander Vinnik, a Russian national extradited to the US in August on allegations of money laundering, hacking and extortion. The US also offered to trade Roman Seleznev, a convicted Russian cyber-criminal currently serving a 14-year sentence in the US, sources said.
CNN also reports: Whelan talks will continue because Russians have ‘things they want,’ US official says.
So, we know attempts to get Whelan alongside Griner were made, and we know that attempts to secure his release will continue.
Beyond that, we don’t know much that is definitive.
But that hasn’t stopped many people from having a lot of opinions about what the Biden administration should, or should not, have done here.
Some of it is just a weird attempt to turn this into NFL trade talks as if prisoner exchanges can be graded the way player trades are. After all, surely an arms dealer is worth more than a basketball player accused of possessing a small amount of cannabis oil, right? Can’t they throw in a retired Marine and prisoner to be named later?
For example:
But, of course, it doesn’t work like that. While I have little doubt that Bout deserves to remain in prison, I also am of the view that the moral gain of his staying in prison is not such that it outweighs the moral gain of Griner’s freedom. As such, while I would have liked a better deal (better is, after all, always better), I have no problem with the basic outcome.
And, yes, I want Whelan freed as well. But there is nothing to be gained by keeping Griner imprisoned just because Whelan’s freedom has not been obtained.
There is a longer discussion to be had here about the potential moral hazard of making these deals and the intricacies of these types of negotiations. And on the latter point, in particular, I will note that I am not an expert.
This leads me to my main point: most people are not experts in this area. Yet, a lot of people sure have strong feelings about this. I note that a lot of anti-Biden folks seem convinced that the administration must have hosed Whelan to get Griner back. There is also, I would argue, a lot more concern about whether the deal was a good one or not.
I am thinking that if the year was, say, 1978, and we all watched one of the three evening news broadcasts, our general impression would have been: Hooray! An American who was being unjustly held by the Russians was freed!
But, in 2022, we have to decide whether a success by a Democratic administration should be praised or critiqued because of partisanship. And I think Whelan’s captivity is just a good hook for criticism
I find this interesting because I am willing to bet that the vast majority of persons asking, “What about Whelan?” had no idea who Whelan is (or had, at best, vague memories) until media outlets started bringing him up. Likewise, it is rather interesting from a partisan media POV to note that Whelan was taken when Trump was president, but now it is Biden’s fault he isn’t free.
I just can’t help but think that a lot of this is a direct artifact of how the story is spun rather than some spontaneous mass opinion. It reminds me of ongoing experiences wherein talking to people over the course of a day or so, I can tell what the current spin is. Earlier in the year I was going on a long weekend trip to NYC and I had a number of people warn me to be careful on the subways. I had no idea what they were talking about until I googled it and noted that FNC had been heavily flogging subway crime stories around the time I was travelling.
Note the tone of this Fox News report about Griner’s release (which was what I expected it would be): https://www.foxnews.com/video/6316850522112.
The focus is mainly on Bout’s “Merchant of Death” status and maybe what he might do next as well as raising questions about Whelan.
Again, I agree we need to get Whelan released and, again, all of this can be pretty complicated, but it is unfortunate that we make every single thing into partisan point-scoring and that outlets like FNC see these events as just another way to stir up their audience.
It really would be an interesting study to see how things like this work their way through the populace in terms of direct exposure to specific news outlets. Another example would be the way that the moral panic over CRT spread.
What I suppose really strikes me about this case is that there is no especially good reason for Americans, in general, to have a negative view of Griner’s release nor to know a lot about Whelan without being told why they should be critical (if not why they should be angry or even afraid instead of happy).
I also find it more than a bit sad that instead of celebrating the freedom of an American who was being unjustly held, that we turn this into partisan point-scoring theater.
I will note that I suspect that race, gender, and sexual identity play into these perceptions as well.
Let me conclude with this from the AP: Family of American prisoner Paul Whelan backs Griner deal.
Speaking of it being Biden’s fault that Whelan is still imprisoned, I read a great MAGA defense of why Trump didn’t lift a finger to get Whelan released. Get ready…
It’s because Trump wasn’t president in 2018!
The ignorance of these people is breathtaking.
The conservative outrage machine must be fed it’s daily dose of grievance lest it turn on it’s masters.
I have no idea if this is true or not (afaik, the independent is a reliable source) but would anyone be surprised if it is?
I just want to note that Whelan is not a retired Marine. He received a Bad Conduct Discharge after a court martial. This, in my mind, has zero implication for efforts to repatriate him, but does have a lot to do with the way right wing propaganda tries to set narratives.
Back when Obama was president wasn’t there a case of an abducted American that the right was demanding he bring home; and then when he did they did a complete 180 and criticized the deal. People were posting side-by-side images of peoples’ twitter feeds showing the complete flip-flop.
It’s all these people know how to do: complain and gripe.
Which is true for most values of this, especially if it’s political.
I forget which lefty blogger pointed out it’s probably not chance that the Russians took a black, female, lesbian as their hostage. They knew how the right would react and they’re always eager to sow division. The FOX website had a story last night on how the Russian press is pitching the story. Neither FOX nor their commenters seemed to notice the irony of the Russians pitching it pretty much the same way FOX is.
The RW media ecosystem is a pestilence that is destabilizing governments around the world. sooner or later we will figure out you can’t have a functional Democracy with network of influence peddlers invested in driving confrontation by any means necessary. Debate yes, but there is a long way between vigorous debate and undermining institutions and public officials non stop using the slimmest of conspiratorial links.
Public trust is a at all-time low…by design. The results of a successful campaign by people with low public trust as an objective…not because they are interested in public accountability and better government. Coincidentally, this is right out of the Russian playbook for how to destabilize governments so their are unable to resist their criminal pursuits within a nation.
Whose behind the Murdock and Sinclair? Wouldn’t surprise me at all if roads led to Russia.
Not true, they also know how to gripe and complain.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Since Russia is saying they wanted a “spy for a spy” deal, they likely would have traded Whelan for Maria Butina, but Trump just released her back to Russia in exchange for nothing
Part of the problem is that even before this deal, the right wing was villainizing Griner as an un-American who deserved to be in prison, so they couldn’t really celebrate it.
The real issue is that Griner is a black LGBT woman, which means the right fundamentally sees her as an enemy.
@Stormy Dragon: You are correct of course. I hadn’t even thought of her in this context.
@Stormy Dragon:
Of course he did. She pretended to be a Trump supporter.
@Paine: Bowe Bergdahl was a great American who Obama refused to rescue who became a very bad person after Obama got him out.
I wonder what will happen to Viktor Bout now. Stalin considered anyone who had been in a western prison as comprised. At end of WW II, former POWs were sent straight to Siberia.
@Stormy Dragon: Heh, just for you:
@OzarkHillbilly:
Trump was too intimidated by Putin to do anything like that.
@CSK:
So they do know he was only pretending throughout his whole term.
Morally, I see two ways to look at this issue.
One is the adage “better to watch ten guilty people go free than to convict one innocent person.” In essence this is what just happened, albeit with only one guilty person going free, not ten.
The other, attributed to Socrates, “It’s better to suffer an injustice than it is to commit one.” We tend to see injustice when someone innocent is punished, or someone deserving is not rewarded (or not sufficiently), but extreme leniency towards the guilty is also injustice, as is extravagant compensation of someone undeserving (see golden parachutes).
We can say two injustices were committed. One innocent person spent time in prison and one guilty person was released too soon from prison. But the first, Griner’s ordeal, was an injustice suffered as well, hence all the indignation it aroused.
Politically, spin determines way too much. If you want to criticize someone, you can find a way regardless of facts. Had Whelan come along on this deal or one involving other Putin assets, Biden could be lambasted for having taken too long to get both out.
That’s just a quick example, but it covers the gist.
related, are there any other Americans held in Russian prisons, be it for real or spurious charges?
@Kathy:
It just goes to show that these people will invent the most ludicrously fake stories to defend their messiah.
@Kathy:
Yes. Marc Fogel and Sarah Krivanek.
@CSK: Putin’s poodle.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Oh, absolutely. Trump is fascinated by strongmen. They enthrall him, but they terrify him, too. He wants desperately to be one of them.
@CSK: He want’s desperately to have a big d*ck too. Failing that he will settle for people thinking he does. For a guy with BDE (or so said somebody yesterday or the day before) he sure doesn’t believe it.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Trump’s been obsessing about his penile dimensions ever since Graydon Carter called him a “short-fingered vulgarian” in 1988.
@Kathy:
Ok, but if we’re doing the math we have to recognize that Griner is black. And a woman. And gay. And liberal.
I think that once you start putting all the conversion factors into play, you will see that she wasn’t worth that much to the right wing. And at that point, we’ve given away a Russian arms dealer for nothing.
Pretending the outrage isn’t just racism is silly.
@Gustopher:
You’re too generous. They probably think Biden allowed an enemy of the people to come back.
As to your main point, Socrates, if he did say it, would indicate it was better to leave Griner to rot than to free a dangerous criminal in exchange.
I’m not Socrates (I’ve checked). I don’t regard Griner’s race or sexuality as relevant to her case. She had a small amount of cannabis oil for personal use, and that should not be a crime anywhere in the world. Imprisoning her was the real outrage, and securing her release was, IMO, worth the high price Mad Vlad extracted.
Three points:
1. Bout wasn’t convicted of “arms dealing”. He was entrapped by the CIA which asked him if he would fly weapons to Colombia for Farc. They recorded him agreeing to do it. They also got him acknowledging that he knew the weapons would be used to shoot down planes piloted by Americans (mercenaries, presumably). This allowed them to charge him with terrorism offences which carried a mandatory 25 year minimum sentence.
In sentencing Bout, the judge said ‘she rejected the notion of life imprisonment because she believed that had Mr. Bout not been ensnared in a sting operation, “there’s no reason to believe that Bout would have ever committed the charged crimes.”’(my emphasis)
In other words, he was entrapped in exactly the same way as the right-wingers indicted for conspiring to kidnap Governor Whitmer were entrapped. An operation Trump Republicans deplore as an FBI abuse of power, but they see no problems doing the same thing to an arms dealer (who in other circumstances could easily have been flying arms into Afghanistan for the CIA).
2. The meme that any American imprisoned by a foreign government must be ‘wrongfully detained’ is comical. Paul Whelan’s history (bad conduct discharge from the Marines for larceny, lying about working for law enforcement), together with the circumstances of his arrest in Moscow, make it eminently credible that he was up to no good.
3. Tens of thousands of foreign nationals are currently imprisoned in American jails. Imagine the reaction if all their governments began ranting that they were “wrongfully detained”, and demanded they be released. Yet many are serving sentences which would never have been imposed in their home countries for the offences they committed.
@Kathy: It was only a high price if one subscribes to the idea that all dealings with unfriendly governments must be measured on a weakstrong scale. Bout has been behind bars since 2008; it’s unlikely that he will be in any position to resume his old business, which has presumably been taken over by others in his absence. His value to Putin will probably be purely symbolic, plus of course the fact the Russians seem to have been quite sincerely outraged about the circumstances of his arrest right from when it happened. They might be bastards, but they still resent what they see as injustice.
This “grab and trade” stuff is precisely why having diplomatic immunity–that is widely recognized–is so critical. At the height of the cold war, spy trades were fairly common but not always publicized.
Russians have always pushed the envelope with this, but they aren’t the only ones.
Greiner’s detention never should have happened.
And the Right, including Kinzinger, should really STFU.
It is noteworthy that Griner is referred to within the Right Wing eternal-outrage-machine as a “WNBA Player” incessantly, but never as an “Olympic athlete who brought home two Gold Medals and glory to America.”
If you think that’s an accident or oversight, think again.
Welcome to another day in the US of A! In a completely non-political arena, you’d be amazed at what people think a game developer/programmer can accomplish in any particular period of time and how they express those beliefs on forums.
But back to Griner: If it only went that far, it would be fine. Citizens are entitled to have feelings about what the government does and to speak them out.
But when that gets taken up by institutions and weaponized, and those institutions support or propagate falsehoods, that’s another.