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How Bad Is The Employment Picture? This Bad

Via Business Insider, it’s been called the scariest jobs chart you’ll ever see, and every month it gets updated it just looks worse.

In other words, we are in the worst jobs recession since the Great Depression and we’ve just recently reached the lowest point of the previous worst jobs recession.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Loviatrar says:

    Doug,

    You have to stay on message.Worrying about jobs is so last election, now it’s all about the deficit.

    If you don’t stay on message the rightwingers are going to have to take away your conservative pundit card.

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  2. Southern Hoosier says:

    I have faith in the Democrats that they believe the bad economy will have no effect on the 2012 election.

    There are two constants in dealing with the liberal or socialist mindset: 1) they can never admit a mistake, always blaming it on others; and 2) regardless of the situation, they can ignore historical facts or the tenets of economics and achieve what others have not.

    http://goo.gl/8yJei

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  3. john personna says:

    I’m pretty sure I can read a chart, and I’m pretty sure that chart is not, in fact, getting worse.

    The trend, smoothed for census workers, has been upward for the last 15 weeks.

    This recent news cycle, this meme cycle, has been about the 1-week tweak on the end of the current trend. But look upward, at all those past downturns and recoveries. Notice that they ALL have tweaks on their trends? And that those tweaks are often just noise, which disappears or reverses in a week or two?

    Geez, seriously dude, the 15 week trend is still the story.

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  4. john personna says:

    (Sorry, months not weeks)

    But look at the blue curve, the 1948 recession, which spiked down at 4 months. The end of the world, right? Except it wasn’t. It was the verge of a full recovery.

    I’m not promising the same kind of reverse, but i’m sure as heck saying you can’t tell from here.

    You really need next month’s data.

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  5. Herb says:

    Would cutting government payrolls help the unemployment situation or make it worse?

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  6. Southern Hoosier says:

    Herb says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 11:10

    Would cutting government payrolls help the unemployment situation or make it worse?

    Maybe you have a point. If they government hired a lot of the unemployed people, the unemployment rate would drop sharply. Then they could fire them all after the 2012 election.

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  7. Southern Hoosier says:

    Of course we could always deport 10-15 million illegals, that would drop the unemployment rate.

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  8. john personna says:

    Surely you know that illegals are not in the unemployment rate.

    So what, you think Americans will go down to wait in front of Home Depot with them gone?

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  9. Southern Hoosier says:

    john personna says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 11:24

    Surely you know that illegals are not in the unemployment rate.

    So what, you think Americans will go down to wait in front of Home Depot with them gone?

    Illegals wait in front of Home Depot because the can’t be legally hired. They are paid cash at the end of the day. Get rid of the illegals and companies would have to hire Americans full time or deal with a legitimate temp agency. And yes I have seen Americans standing on the side of the road waiting to be picked up as day labors. They have to compete with illegals for low pay low skill jobs. Most of them were Black.

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  10. Herb says:

    If they government hired a lot of the unemployed people, the unemployment rate would drop sharply.

    Well, I’m not looking for some shovel-ready make-work program to lap up the excess of unemployed people. I’m just wondering if fighting the good fight against public workers is helpful to the unemployment situation.

    Me, I’d rather pay them to do a job than pay them to fill out job applications.

    As for the deportation of illegal immigrants, Comrade Obama has been doing that in droves. Been to a McDonald’s recently?

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  11. john personna says:

    The problem in unemployment rate is not that people can’t get hap-hazard (literally) $10/hr jobs. Remember, that’s not full time, and that’s not insured.

    The problem is unemployment in the middle, missing jobs that used to be worth $50K/yr.

    If the illegals were gone, I suspect that most of the work would revert to do-it-yourself, just because so many fewer can afford a fully legal landscape or maid service. Would some of those missing workers translate into full time jobs with benefits? Sure, a few, because a few of the illegals are being employed by the rich. But only a few.

    (And of course with fewer taco shops in town, employment would decline in other ways.)

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  12. Southern Hoosier says:

    As for the deportation of illegal immigrants, Comrade Obama has been doing that in droves. Been to a McDonald’s recently?

    The Obama administration’s new approach to dealing with companies that hire illegal immigrants results in firings, not deportations, Fox News has confirmed.

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/07/10/administrations-silent-raids-lead-firings-deportations/#ixzz1OQ1qmn91

    But even if Comrade Obama has more deported, it doesn’t do any good if they can come right back. Many illegals have been deported several times. Our southern border is a revolving door.

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  13. Pete says:

    What kind of economic incentive could attract manufacturing jobs back to America? These jobs pay more than service jobs. Might the answer lie in elimination of the corporate income tax and vast simplication of the income tax code to significantly reduce the cost of compliance thus incentivizing more businesses to invest capital and manufacturing in this country? Foreign companies would find the investment climate more attractive here. Lose some tax revenue from corps but more than make up for it with increased personal income tax stream from more employed. Sounds reasonable to me.

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  14. Southern Hoosier says:

    john personna says: Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 11:54

    If the illegals were gone, I suspect that most of the work would revert to do-it-yourself, just because so many fewer can afford a fully legal landscape or maid service.

    I don’t believe 10-15 million illegals are working as gardeners and maids. If that is true, then ICE should be raiding private homes, not business.

    PICKENS COUNTY, S.C. — The South Carolina Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation said it found even more proof of illegal workers at construction sites in the Pickens County School District.

    Read more: http://www.wyff4.com/news/24788090/detail.html#ixzz1OQ55mykf

    A federal grand jury has indicted five current and former Mambo Seafood managers and supervisors, accusing them of knowingly employing illegal immigrants and charging that they went as far as allowing workers to change identities and Social Security number

    Read more: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/chronicle/7592903.html#ixzz1OQ5hTkEV

    How many more ICE raid stories do you want?

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  15. Herb says:

    Many illegals have been deported several times.

    So you’re saying deportation isn’t the answer then….

    Foreign companies would find the investment climate more attractive here.

    You mean like Dubai World? Hey, I’m not against foreign companies investing in US assets. Go for it. But if they want tax breaks….forget it. You want to ride the road, you must pay the toll.

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  16. Southern Hoosier says:

    Herb says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 12:28

    Many illegals have been deported several times.

    So you’re saying deportation isn’t the answer then….

    You need border enforcement along with deportation.

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  17. Southern Hoosier says:

    Herb says: Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 12:28

    But if they want tax breaks….forget it

    Why not? Tax breaks and other deals attract business and create jobs. Payroll from the companies drives the local economy and more than makes for the loss of tax revenue. Without the tax breaks the company would have gone elsewhere, Without the company, the local economy wouldn’t have the taxes and now they wouldn’t have the payroll.

    Amazon has now agreed to increase the number of promised jobs from 1,250 to 2,000. Amazon also still gets a five-year exemption from collecting sales tax on purchases in South Carolina, but it did pledge to send customers in that state a notification that they’re responsible for paying the tax and sending a yearly total of purchases to them.

    Read more: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/06/05/1693767/amazon-offers-lesson-in-tax-fight.html#ixzz1OQLOKsgJ

    We also used tax breaks to attract BMW and a whole horde of other related auto manufacturer jobs followed. One was http://www.cu-icar.com/. Now that Boeing is moving in, some of the auto related companies are gearing up new production lines to support Boeing. Lots of nice jobs thanks to tax breaks

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  18. Herb says:

    Without the tax breaks the company would have gone elsewhere, Without the company, the local economy wouldn’t have the taxes and now they wouldn’t have the payroll.

    Yes, I’m familiar with the arguments and even admit to maybe being persuaded by a few of them. I mean, I understand why New Mexico offers tax breaks to film companies. They want the jobs, they want the tourism, and if they don’t pony up, the “runaway production” may runaway to somewhere else.

    But why should the taxpayer subsidize what should be a private venture? Are we going to get a piece of the back end? Nope. Oh we might get a few jobs…jobs that would dry up as soon as the tax breaks stop.

    The tax break game is a competition to see who can go broke first.

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  19. Herb says:

    “You need border enforcement along with deportation.”

    You mean border enforcement above and beyond deportation then? Because deportation is “border enforcement.” Indeed, deportation is going to be the main weapon in the fight against illegal immigration.

    If you’re primarily concerned about illegal border crossings, though, then by all means….seal that border tight.

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  20. john personna says:

    SH, you do know that tax breaks for specific projects or industries is wealth redistribution right?

    It is a net transfer from your grocer, and your auto mechanic, to that movie maker, etc.

    (It’s totally stupid, and the best thing for the nation would be a ban on the process, so that firms can’t bargain states vs states, and free-ride off established businesses.)

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  21. john personna says:

    (LOL, SH subsidizes through the state and thinks it’s free market.)

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  22. Southern Hoosier says:

    john personna says:
    Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 14:26

    SH, you do know that tax breaks for specific projects or industries is wealth redistribution right?

    I should have guess. If I keep my money that is redistribution. If I pay taxes, that is redistribution. If the state brings in jobs, that is redistribution, If the state looses jobs, that is redistribution. If my dog dies, that ‘s redistribution. Everything is redistribution to a liberal, right?

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  23. john personna says:

    This one is simple SH. All the businesses in your town pay tax, until the new guy shows up and cuts a deal with the governor. He how has an advantage, versus everyone else in the community. This relative advantage, paying less tax, is equivalent to the other people in the community (“at the point of a gun!”) giving the new guy money directly, with which to pay his tax.

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  24. Southern Hoosier says:

    Herb says: Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 13:53

    You mean border enforcement above and beyond deportation then? Because deportation is “border enforcement.”

    If ICE arrest an illegal a thousands miles from the border and deports them, that is border enforcement? More like redistribution, since everything seems to be redistribution. LOL

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  25. Patrick T. McGuire says:

    This chart tells only part of the story. The overall unemployment rate is 9.1% but for teens the rate is much higher. And right now, thousands of college graduates are finding out that there are no jobs available, making their situation much worse.

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  26. Eric Florack says:

    It’s all lies, I tell you. Fearless leader says we’re in a recovery.

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  27. Southern Hoosier says:

    @john personna

    The government announces that the Chicom Widget factory is going to build a factory in Union and hire a 1,000 workers will an annual payroll of $50 million. Union country has a 20% unemployment rate. Chicom Widget wants a 5 year tax moratorium. Hearing are held. No one objects, since there will be no new taxes and no one else build widgets.

    Now the local business have to expand do to the increase of workers at the widget factory and hire more people to keep up with the increase in business. Business have to pay more taxes on increased profits. Workers have to pay income taxes on their wages and sales tax on the purchases. Property value goes up along with property taxes. The new revenue more than makes up for the 5 year tax moratorium.

    That’s the way the real world works. Call it redistribution or whatever you want to.

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  28. matt says:

    SH : So you think there’s some sort of database of every illegal that the government is sitting on and for some reason isn’t already using to deport illegals? Do you realize it’s utterly impossible to successfully deport every illegal and even deporting most of them would require massive government over reach into your personal life and finances? That in order to find illegals everyone would be required to maintain papers on themselves at all times in order for officers to inspect the status of your citizenship at checkpoints across the nation. So in effect you’re arguing that the government needs to be massively expanded and our privacy destroyed so that we can go about deporting some desperate people. How small government conservative of you…

    TLDR : Obama is deporting people at a rate higher then Bush and it’s not enough. SH wants us to spend several billion dollars a year harassing and stomping on the rights of legal citizens in the hope to deport even more illegals.

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  29. Southern Hoosier says:

    @ matt

    You make things too complicated. “everyone would be required to maintain papers on themselves at all times” We do already. we have some type of ID to do business transactions. If we drive, we have proof of insurance and vehicle registration. Most illegals don’t have these things.

    Legal immigrants are required by federal law to carry their papers on them at all times.

    And like in the Arizona law, the only time papers would be shown to the police, when you are stooped for some other type of violation and not just for walking down the steeet.

    Cut off federal funds to states that issue drivers license to illegals. Cut off federal funding to sanctuary cities. Cut off federal funding to schools that enroll illegals.

    So what’s the problem?

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  30. ratufa says:

    SH:

    Letting specific people or businesses keep their own money via tax breaks can clearly be wealth redistribution in some cases. As an example (which you should like), suppose you own a grocery store that was competing with another grocery a few blocks away, and the government gave a tax break to your competitor because it’s a minority-owned business. This break allows your competition to lower prices and hurts your business. Before we go off on a race tangent, this sort of thing could also have happened if your competition had better lobbyists than you, was high-school buddies with your local congressman, etc.

    In your “Chicom Widgets” example, the tax break seems like a win for everyone. But, consider what happens to a (hypothetical) “Joe’s Widget Factory” a few states away. That factory probably doesn’t have a cushy tax exemption and is now at a competitive disadvantage with Chicom Widgets, at least until it arranges its own tax deal.

    At this point, you might think “lower taxes for everyone, this is great!”. Maybe it is. But, we aren’t talking about the big, bad Feds, here. It’s local and state government, specifically the government units who have to adjust to the loss of the tax revenue from Joe’s Widget Factory, that are now taking the fiscal hit. Maybe they have enough fat to do so without much pain (unlikely, the way the bad economy has hit local/state budgets), maybe it’ll require laying off some police or cutting other services that might be better not to cut (e.g. delaying bridge repairs, etc), or maybe taxes will need to be raised (or money borrowed, which is effectively a future tax hike). In these latter cases, the effects are basically wealth redistribution. if you don’t agree that it’s redistribution, consider that Joe gets to keep his own money, while the policeman who lost his job or the people who would be doing those bridge repairs are now sitting at home unemployed (and somebody who isn’t Joe is paying for their unemployment benefits).

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  31. matt says:

    You make things too complicated. “everyone would be required to maintain papers on themselves at all times” We do already. we have some type of ID to do business transactions. If we drive, we have proof of insurance and vehicle registration. Most illegals don’t have these things.

    Those same IDs are very easy to fake. I haven’t had to use an ID for a business transaction in a long time so I’m not even sure where you get that from. A lot of legal residents don’t have proper registration or even insurance. I don’t see how that even remotely can be used to weed out illegals.

    Legal immigrants are required by federal law to carry their papers on them at all times.

    Well that has no relevance to the subject unless you believe EVERYONE should have to have their papers too..

    And like in the Arizona law, the only time papers would be shown to the police, when you are stooped for some other type of violation and not just for walking down the steeet.

    Then you will continue to have a lot of illegals here because that’s the status quo buddy. We’re already deporting lifetime borne here legal residents on accident through that system. I don’t want to carry around my private papers at all times just because a policeman might decide to imagine that my brake light is out (I’ve been pulled over for lights that were “out” that were working perfectly fine when I checked them later). Not mention the potential for mass increases in identify theft as those papers would present a very tempting and easy target.

    Cut off federal funds to states that issue drivers license to illegals. Cut off federal funding to sanctuary cities. Cut off federal funding to schools that enroll illegals.

    What the hell are you talking about. Sanctuary cities? Really? lol… Once again you provide no real ideas just random extremely vague talking points that have little do with the real issue at hand.

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  32. An Interested Party says:

    What kind of economic incentive could attract manufacturing jobs back to America?

    Higher tariffs, anyone? Oh, wait, that would go against the religion of free trade, nevermind…

    Oh, and once again, it is hardly surprising that Grand Dragon Southern Hoosier wants to deport tens of millions of illegal immigrants…after all, they aren’t white…

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  33. Southern Hoosier says:

    @ratufa

    Chicom has a lot of extra start up cost that Joe’s Widget Factory doesn’t have. For example Chicom has to hire and train 900 local people and relocate another 100 of their senior people. Then there is the cost of the new building and equipment to pay for. Lost production time working the bugs out during start up. Difference in the cost of utilities, insurance, labor, and financing. Then there is Speedy’s Widgets in Mexico. Speedy has low labor cost, lax OSHA, EPA and labor reg plus NAFTA. So there is a lot more to the cost of doing business than a nice tax break.

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  34. Tano says:

    It sure would be interesting to see the Great Depression plotted on this graph. Anyone know of an example of this graph with that included?

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  35. Southern Hoosier says:

    matt says: Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 16:50

    What the hell are you talking about. Sanctuary cities? Really? lol… Once again you provide no real ideas just random extremely vague talking points that have little do with the real issue at hand.

    Sanctuary Cities, USA
    http://goo.gl/HAzbR

    I haven’t had to use an ID for a business transaction in a long time so I’m not even sure where you get that from.

    Fraud prevention. Some stores ask for an ID when use use a credit card.

    A lot of legal residents don’t have proper registration or even insurance.

    Do they drive? If they do then immigrations status is the lest of their worries, because if the police ever stops them, they are going to jail.

    Those same IDs are very easy to fake

    Are they? When the police pull over a 20 year old male, punches in the number and it says the ID belongs to a 70 year old women that is deceased, I think the police would suspect something is wrong.

    We’re already deporting lifetime borne here legal residents on accident through that system.

    Give me an example.

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  36. Southern Hoosier says:

    An Interested Party says: Sunday, June 5, 2011 at 19:04

    Oh, and once again, it is hardly surprising that Grand Dragon Southern Hoosier wants to deport tens of millions of illegal immigrants…after all, they aren’t white

    Just as I thought, you are clueless to the real world. A lot of illegals are white.

    White Hispanic and Latino Americans are citizens and residents of the United States who are racially white and ethnically Hispanic or Latino.

    White American, itself an official U.S. racial category, legally refers to people “having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa” residing in the United States.[

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  37. ratufa says:

    there is a lot more to the cost of doing business than a nice tax break

    Yes, there is. Presumably, Chicom Widgets took those costs, along with the competition’s costs, into account before deciding to open up a new widget factory. And, while Chicom will have startup costs, they will have lower ongoing costs because of the tax break and also probably because of other reasons (more modern factory, lower labor costs, etc).

    But, that doesn’t affect the points I was making about the redistributive effects of tax policy.

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  38. Southern Hoosier says:

    James Madison, author of the Constitution, wrote, “I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.”

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  39. Herb says:

    “If ICE arrest an illegal a thousands miles from the border and deports them, that is border enforcement?”

    In a word….yes. Don’t be daft.

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  40. Southern Hoosier says:

    Herb says:
    Monday, June 6, 2011 at 00:31

    “If ICE arrest an illegal a thousands miles from the border and deports them, that is border enforcement?”

    In a word….yes. Don’t be daft.

    Source?

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  41. Southern Hoosier says:

    Herb says:
    Monday, June 6, 2011 at 00:31

    “If ICE arrest an illegal a thousands miles from the border and deports them, that is border enforcement?”

    In a word….yes. Don’t be daft.

    I guess ICE is daft too.

    Border Enforcement Security Task Force (BEST)

    http://www.ice.gov/best/

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  42. flataffect says:

    When I saw that graph on memeorandum in miniature in my peripheral vision my first impression was that it was another story about Weiner’s crotch. My eyes are very tired.

    But you’ve got to admit, it does resemble a bulge in the wrong direction.

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  43. Pug says:

    we are in the worst jobs recession since the Great Depression

    This is not exactly breaking news. We are in the fairly early stages of recovery from what was very nearly another Great Depression. And it should be pointed out repeatedly that if the Tea Partiers and conservatives had gotten what they wanted, collapse of the banks and auto industry for starters, a massive depression is exactly what we would have had.

    The budget deficits and national debt are big problems, no doubt, though we owe about half the national debt to ourselves because the Social Securtiy trust fund has bought an awful lot of Treasuries over the last 20 years or so .A collpase of the economy, which is what we faced without government intervention, would have made the current situation look like a day at the beach.

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  44. Unfortunately, things are on a downward trend, and no one is willing to take the pain now needed to fix them. This means much worse pain in the future—and the future is almost here.

    Robert A. Hall
    Author: The Coming Collapse of the American Republic
    (All royalties go to a charity to help wounded veterans)

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  45. matt says:

    Fraud prevention. Some stores ask for an ID when use use a credit card.

    I switched from paper money to plastic two years ago and I haven’t been asked to show an ID outside of alcohol purchases or when dealing with the government.

    Do they drive? If they do then immigrations status is the lest of their worries, because if the police ever stops them, they are going to jail.

    Yes legal residents do and I’ve had friends who were hit by them. They also get pulled over and cited for no registration which some local newspapers report.

    Are they? When the police pull over a 20 year old male, punches in the number and it says the ID belongs to a 70 year old women that is deceased, I think the police would suspect something is wrong.

    Great so your hope is that every illegal immigrant with forged papers will suddenly start driving and hopefully be pulled over then have their ID ran by the police officer pulling them over… What a plan.

    Give me an example.

    Here’s a semi local example. Note how he’s a life long resident of the United States.

    http://news.change.org/stories/homecoming-for-wrongfully-deported-american-citizen

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  46. Southern Hoosier says:

    matt says: Monday, June 6, 2011 at 15:30

    Yes legal residents do and I’ve had friends who were hit by them. They also get pulled over and cited for no registration which some local newspapers report.

    What’s the matter aren’t they old enough to get a drivers license? Too many tickets? Too many DUIs? Their cars need to be impounded and they need to do some jail time. I’ll bet they are liberals and think the law applies to everyone but them.

    Great so your hope is that every illegal immigrant with forged papers will suddenly start driving and hopefully be pulled over then have their ID ran by the police officer pulling them over… What a plan.

    I’m being to think you got some type of mental problem, because you keep coming up with the most dumb examples. First anybody with have half a brain is going to know that not all illegal drive cars. But the ones that do, when they get stopped, need to be deported.

    I’d guess that more people get wrongly convicted than get wrongly deported, but we don’t close the justice system down.

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  47. matt says:

    What’s the matter aren’t they old enough to get a drivers license? Too many tickets? Too many DUIs? Their cars need to be impounded and they need to do some jail time. I’ll bet they are liberals and think the law applies to everyone but them.

    I have no idea and the friends I had who were hit by them never bothered to ask. I know one had so many DUIs it was retarded but I have no idea why people would drive without registration or a license..

    I’m being to think you got some type of mental problem, because you keep coming up with the most dumb examples. First anybody with have half a brain is going to know that not all illegal drive cars. But the ones that do, when they get stopped, need to be deported.

    Well that’s fine but that is already the status quo around here..

    I’d guess that more people get wrongly convicted than get wrongly deported, but we don’t close the justice system down.

    Strawman..

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