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Perry Out, But Texas Governor’s Race Still Likely Republican Win

As James Joyner noted earlier today, Rick Perry, who has held the Texas Governor’s Office since George W. Bush resigned in late December 2000 to become President, will not be running for re-election. Despite this, though, Stuart Rothenberg notes that his successor is almost guaranteed to be another Republican. The most likely Republican nominee at this point appears to be Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott:

Abbott has been laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial run for some time. He has built a huge war chest, is well-connected in in Texas GOP circles, and is close to Perry.

In other words, Abbott has had all the ingredients to assume the title of gubernatorial favorite for some time. All except one — the assurance that Perry would not run again. Abbott wouldn’t challenge Perry, the governor said earlier this year. But with the governor now out of the picture, Abbott can move ahead along a pretty unobstructed path.

Which other Republicans might be able to give Abbott a run for his money?

“No one. The field clears,” said Bill Miller, a longtime Texas Republican strategist and lobbyist.

Abbott released a statement Monday from his official office praising Perry. He made no mention of the governor’s race, but he is widely expected to jump into the race.

(…)

On the Democratic side, things are much less settled. What’s clear is that Abbott would begin the general election as a heavy favorite against whoever Democrats end up nominating. And that will likely prompt Democrats’ best prospects to sit out 2014 with an eye on the future.

“This makes it less likely a serious Democrat will run,” said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones.

That said, there are some names worth watching. One is Wendy Davis, the Democratic state senator whose marathon filibuster against a Perry-backed bill to tighten abortion restrictions catapulted her onto the national scene last month. A Davis-Abbott matchup would be striking because of their deep differences over abortion.

The other buzzy Democratic name in Texas is San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who is seen as a potential future gubernatorial candidate. But Castro, who burst onto the national radar with a well-received keynote address at last year’s Democratic National Convention, is still young. And he is seen more as a prospect for 2018 or beyond, as Democrats are hopeful that demographic trends will boost their political standing in the Lone Star State in the coming years.

There’s frequent talk of Texas becoming a “purple” state in the future thanks to demographic changes and, while that may happen someday, it’s not going to happen in 2014. Absent something completely unforeseen, this seat will be a rather easy Republican hold.

 

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Trumwill Mobile says:

    There’s no ‘but’ about it. Perry being out decreases the already long odds The Democrats faced. Perry’s popularity has always been overstated.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  2. Ron Beasley says:

    @Trumwill Mobile: I agree – Perry has been polling very badly in TX since his disastrous presidential run. If he had run again I think it would have incresed the chances of a Dem win.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

  3. OzarkHillbilly says:

    So the Texas welfare rolls are about to increase, eh? Oh, they won’t call it welfare, but you just know the Texas Republicans will find a place for Perry to hang his oversized hat.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  4. William Wilgus says:

    The candidate with the most money wins. Is anyone foolish enough to bet that the Republican candidate won’t have the most campaign money? Do you honestly think business would donate campaign funds to a Democrat? Democracy died with Regan’s predecessor.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

  5. Trumwill says:

    @William Wilgus:

    The candidate with the most money wins.

    That would be news to a lot of candidates with a lot of money who lost.

    Do you honestly think business would donate campaign funds to a Democrat?

    A lot of businesses do, and I don’t think they’re sleepwalkingdonating.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0