Rand Paul Maintains A Lead In Kentucky
Rand Paul's initial mis-steps after winning the Republican primary seem to be largely behind him.
Rand Paul’s initial mis-steps after winning the Republican primary seem to be largely behind him if the latest poll is to be believed:
Republican Rand Paul still holds a modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate contest.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Paul picking up 49% support, while Conway earns the vote from 40%. Four percent (4%) prefer another candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
The latest results are almost identical to those found in three surveys conducted in July and June. With the exception of a big bounce immediately after his primary win, Paul has received between 46% and 50% support in match-ups with Conway since January. During the same period, Conway has earned between 34% and 42% of the vote.
When leaners are included in the new totals, Paul attracts 51% of the vote, while Conway picks up 41%. This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Kentucky to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
Most recently, Paul weighed in on the “Ground Zero Mosque” story and, after first stating that he considered it a local New York issue, he later said that he did not believe the mosque should be built. Now, I’ve raked Paul over the coals a bit over at my personal blog for this, but I think it’s fairly certain that Paul’s position is going to help him politically. Unfortunate, but true.
As we head into the final months of the campaign, Paul seems well-positioned to keep the seat in Republican hands:
Of course, anything can happen.
That of course depends on how much faith you put in Rasmussen polls.
TPM’s Poll average shows the race actually tightening up. Indeed, it seems only Rasmussen has the race being blown wide open by Paul.
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/2010-ky-sen/Conway-Paul
RCP’s poll tracker disagrees
If you take out the Rasmussen poll from the TPM average, it appears that Conway is fading. Seems counterintuitive, but it looks like Rasmussen forces more responders to choose, which goes to Conway’s advantage.
I think Kentucky is a pretty conservative state, and as long as Paul avoids gaffes that suggest radicalism, he will be fine.
Of course, I’m not sure the Republican party will be “fine” with a Republican like Paul; nor will the Democratic pary be “fine” with a Democrat as conservative as I suspect Conway is. But it’s better than the alternative.