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The Debt Ceiling Debate Will Be Returning Soon

Debt Ceiling

Tyler Durden passes along an analysis that estimates that we’ll need to deal with raising the debt ceiling again some time in the next four months:

Key Takeaways:

  • We expect the Treasury to exhaust its extraordinary measures to create borrowing authority on October 31, and run out of cash on November 1.
  • Our “drop dead” date is about two months later than an earlier forecast. The main reason for the change is that we underestimated how much borrowing authority Treasury could create this time around.
  • Our forecast assumes that Freddie Mac pays Treasury a $30.0 billion dividend at the end of September. That’s not a given, though.
  • Even without the dividend payment, Treasury could probably make it to November 1 without a debt limit increase.

We’ve updated our projections for when Treasury will exhaust its extraordinary measures that will allow it to borrow under the current debt ceiling. We now expect that Treasury will exhaust those measures on October 31, and run out of cash the next day, November 1.

That puts the debt ceiling debate right in the middle of the debate over the Fiscal Year 2014 budget, and makes it even less likely that the House will deal substantively with immigration until much closer to the end of the year.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. It’s a hostage crisis, not a debate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

  2. Tillman says:
  3. Gustopher says:

    There’s really no need to debate this, at least not with the administration.

    Congress has the authority and requirement to set appropriations, and the authority and requirement to authorize debt.

    It is not the executive branch’s job to help congress pick the bag of sh.t they are demanding, or to negotiate what previously congressionally-approved spending to cut, or even to smile and play nice. The president can veto, or he can sign — beyond that, this is Congress’s problem (that they have made up for themselves).

    If the Republicans in the House want to run up a bill and skip out on payment, there is very little the Obama administration can do to stop them.

    I would recommend vetoing any and all appropriations bills that don’t come with the needed borrowing authority in the future though.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  4. becca says:

    I can’t take ZH.

    “It’s the end of the world. Buy gold!”

    ZH in a nutshell.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  5. JohnMcC says:

    I have to deal professionally with the occasional person suffering from dementia (sometimes a permanent type, sometimes situational). I can affirm that trying to talk sensibly to insane people does NOT constitute a “debate”. I recomment restraints and adequate sedation.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  6. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    But… but… we keep getting told that, under Obama, the deficit is shrinking and things are getting better and better! Why do we need to keep borrowing money?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 10

  7. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government can not pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that “the buck stops here.” Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 4

  8. Caj says:

    Oh yippee! Another fight from Republicans over the debt ceiling. What a way to run a country.
    More hand wringing from them over raising the debt ceiling but never any worries over spending millions more on the war machine if necessary! The Republican Party is dysfunctional and about time it went the way of the dinosaur. Even cave men would do a better job in Congress than that bunch of idiots!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  9. Rex Marsh says:

    Whenever I’m looking for serious financial advice, I always turn to someone who took their name from a Brad Pitt character. After lots of discussion with Benjamin Button, I believe in Reaganomics. And going backwards in time.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

  10. edmondo says:

    @Rex Marsh:

    apparently American disagrees with your opinion. Named the 5th most influential financial website for 5 years in a row

    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-20-most-influential-blogs-2011-1

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

  11. al-Ameda says:

    But… but… we keep getting told that, under Obama, the deficit is shrinking and things are getting better and better! Why do we need to keep borrowing money?

    First, let me help you out here: We need to borrow because we still have a deficit. There, you just learned something …. you’re welcome.

    And yes, things are getting better – the annual deficit is declining, by every measure, and the unemployment is declining. I can see why those two facts distresses you. Also, unfortunately for you, America has not defaulted on its debt, and has ample capacity to continue to meet its debt service obligations.

    Although,to be fair, Republicans have demonstrated that they want America to default on its debt in order to make it politically possible to enact the kind of spending reductions that will cause another recession.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

  12. anjin-san says:

    The Debt Ceiling Debate Will Be Returning Soon

    Please kill me…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  13. anjin-san says:

    Why do we need to keep borrowing money?

    Well, there has been one year in the history of this nation when we did not carry a national debt. That was 1835. In every other year, there has been debt. Debt has to be serviced. Well, maybe not, we know that a lot of deadbeat conservatives love to ring up charges on the ol’ credit card, they just dont want to pay the bill when it comes due.

    At any rate, it’s interesting how no one on the right gave a crap about the debt/deficits until that dark skinned feller was in the White House.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  14. al-Ameda says:

    @anjin-san:

    At any rate, it’s interesting how no one on the right gave a crap about the debt/deficits until that dark skinned feller was in the White House.

    You do realize that you’re a racist for even suggesting that this country ever had a race problem? And how do I know this? Because that is what conservatives keep telling me.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  15. Jenos Idanian says:

    Now that’s downright entertaining. My 16:45 comment was nothing but a direct quote from Senator Barack Obama, and it got 3 downvotes.

    Racists.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

  16. bill says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: did you forget the quotes or do you assume we all know who said that and when!? i think we’re past the children and into the grandchildren now- great grandchildren are getting real close.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  17. Rob in CT says:

    Senator Obama was grandstanding. His 2006(?) quote deserves some downvotes.

    The Dems didn’t use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip, threatening default. They got their shots in, and then what needed doing, as had been done for roughly a century. The GOP recently made a choice to utilize tactics not used before. Politically, this was useful. It is also dangerous, IMO, or at least it is if the Dems ever decide to respond in a similarly hardline manner. So the approach pays off, which means they’ll keep using it. It’s a lovely little dynamic. It’s basically playing chicken, when you know the other guy will swerve.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0