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Wendy Davis Down 15 Points In New Texas Governor’s Race Poll

Wendy Davis Greg Abbott

If the new poll from Public Policy Polling is any indication, State Senator Wendy Davis faces an almost insurmountable battle in her bid for the Texas Governor’s Mansion:

Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat Wendy Davis by 15 points in a new Democratic poll of the Texas gubernatorial race, an improvement over his 8-point lead in the same poll in July.

The state attorney general holds a 50-35 advantage over the state senator in the survey, released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling. The poll also found that Davis’s favorability rating has worsened, falling to a net negative 6 points, while Abbott’s favorability has remained in the positive single digits.

The poll stands in contrast to a survey that found Abbott with a narrower 6-point lead, conducted in the heavily Republican state last month and released Monday by the University of Texas/Texas Tribune.

(…)

The poll also found that if it became a three-way race with former GOP gubernatorial hopeful Debra Medina running as an independent, Abbott would garner 47 percent of the vote, with Davis drawing 37 percent and Medina drawing 9 percent.

This isn’t entirely surprising. The current demographics of Texas make it unlikely that someone like Davis will win statewide unless the Abbott campaign makes some monumental error, which seems unlikely at the moment. At best, she’s likely to become something of a national star just like she did in the wake of her filibuster, but the odds of winning the election seem to be remote at best.  Indeed, of all the Governor’s races on the ballot next year, national Democrats might be advised to concentrate on states where they have a chance of winning, like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, rather than throwing a ton of money at what is likely going to be a doomed race.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. wr says:

    So one poll shows her behind in double digits, while another one released two days ago shows single digits in a race to be held in a year, and you think the Democrats should run away and hide? Before anyone has run a single ad or done any campaigning?

    Congratualtions, Doug, that’s either some fine concern trolling, or you’re auditioning to be the head of the pre-Dean DNC…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 5

  2. National Republican Party says:

    WR is absolutely right. Democrats need to put every dime they can spare into the Texas gubernatorial race. It’s very important.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

  3. Jimbo OPKS says:

    Another media created flash in the pan is proven so. The truth hurts.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 6

  4. Rob in CT says:

    I certainly don’t expect her to win. I also don’t think the DNC should just accept it as a fait accompli.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  5. wr says:

    @National Republican Party: “WR is absolutely right. Democrats need to put every dime they can spare into the Texas gubernatorial race. It’s very important. ”

    Yes, I remember all the money the Democrats wasted on senatorial races in Missouri and Indiana last year. Because of course polls a year away from an election are absolutely unchangeable, and there was simply no way the Republican candidates could lose.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  6. al-Ameda says:

    @Rob in CT:

    I certainly don’t expect her to win. I also don’t think the DNC should just accept it as a fait accompli.

    I agree. Plus, Davis will probably run a respectable race and position herself to successfully run for a House or Senate seat in the not-so-distant future.

    Also, her candidacy forces Texas Republicans to go on the record with their usual 19th century opinions, and inevitably we get to hear from guys like Stockman, Barton, Gohmert and Cruz, which has the general effect of reminding people just how retrograde politics are in Texas. At some point electoral demographics will overtake some of those guys.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 4

  7. National Republican Party says:

    @wr: Right on. It’s just one poll and every statewide election held in Texas in the last 20 years with virtually no movement away from Republican candidates. Ignore the nattering nabobs of negativism. This time will be different! Donate today! That money is far better spent in Texas than in Michigan.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 3

  8. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @wr:

    Yes, I remember all the money the Democrats wasted on senatorial races in Missouri and Indiana last year.

    Yes because MO & IN are just like Texas. And Abbott is just like Mourdoch and Akin.

    Look, she can’t win. She is not running to win. She is angling for something else. What I do not know, but if losing this race were a death knell on her political future, she would not do this. This race is a stepping stone.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

  9. Gromitt Gunn says:

    Do I expect Davis to win? Nope.

    Do I expect someone who went from being a single mom living in a trailer park attending Tarrant County (Community) College to graduating Harvard Law, and then to the Texas Legislature to just roll over? Oh, hell no!

    This is going to be an awesome campaign. I can’t wait to get my Wendy for Texas bumper sticker! And then to see how quickly it gets defaced here in Aggieland. Hah!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3

  10. wr says:

    @National Republican Party: “That money is far better spent in Texas than in Michigan.”

    I think the slimy plutocrats trying to buy this country for the Republican party will discover there’s plenty of money on the other side to stand up to them.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

  11. superdestroyer says:

    Maybe the Democrats in Texas should put more effort in appealing to blue collar and middle class whites in Texas instead of carrying cases to Supreme Court where the Democrats argued that discriminating against whites is not only legal but good government policy.

    Maybe all of the progressives who repeatedly point out how badly the Repubicans appeal to blacks and Hispanics should explain why Democrats in Texas do so poorly in appealing to whites. Maybe the Democrats in Texas should come up with ideas and programs that appeal to middle class whites instead of just waiting until immigraiton and high Latino fertility to change the state.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 7

  12. superdestroyer says:

    @al-Ameda:

    Thank for admitting that Democrats understand that demographics is everything and actually appealing to the voters is reletively unimportant. The real question that Republicans should be asking every single Democratic Party candidate in Texas is what is their position on a state income tax. The Republicans should get every Democrat in Texas on record as opposing a state income tax and make them look like they are going against the national party.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 5

  13. National Democratic Party says:

    @superdestroyer: I for one support this line of reasoning. Republicans really need to work more at making beleaguered whites the victims of racism. It’s really worked well so far.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  14. ernieyeball says:

    …unless the Abbott campaign makes some monumental error,..

    I never heard of Todd Akin til he opened his mouth and I half-azzed follow Missouri politics because I have worked in Jefferson City, my sister lives in Columbia and I like the Show-Me State Motto.
    Do you think Citizen Abbott’s handlers will have to tape his mouth shut?…
    Oh, wait.
    I’ve worked in Texas too. He would probably have to trash talk the Alamo before it would matter.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  15. al-Ameda says:

    @superdestroyer:

    Thank for admitting that Democrats understand that demographics is everything and actually appealing to the voters is reletively unimportant.

    And thank YOU, for reminding us that Republicans do not care about appealing to any voters other than White people. Again, sooner or later demographics will pull Texas out of the early 20th century.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

  16. superdestroyer says:

    @al-Ameda:

    Are you implying that the 21st century will be the century of the patron class where the U.S. will be a small group of elites who fill the patron class and a massive number of peons. Does moving into the 21st century means that the schools will decline in quality, taxes will go up, the public sector will get bigger, the private sector getting smaller, and more people dependent on the government. Texas will never have Wall Street, Hollywood, or silicon valley, so I do not know what the Democrats can do for the state’s economy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  17. al-Ameda says:

    @superdestroyer:

    Are you implying that the 21st century will be the century of the patron class where the U.S. will be a small group of elites who fill the patron class and a massive number of peons.

    I’m not implying any such thing. I am stating directly that as we move further into the 21st century that the United States will not be a country where a resentful and embittered class of white voters will be running our important institutions. If you believe that those embittered white voters will be the elite and the rest of us patrons and peons, then I definitely disagree.

    Does moving into the 21st century means that the schools will decline in quality, taxes will go up, the public sector will get bigger, the private sector getting smaller, and more people dependent on the government.

    I believe that we should pay for the government that we, collectively, decide that we want. Does than mean taxes will have to increase? That depends on what we want, doesn’t it? Schools will decline in quality? Only where poor and working people live. Statistics continue to show that wherever you have white collar parents with middle class and upward incomes, that’s where you have the best schools with the highest performance.

    More people dependent on government? Statistics show that the states with the most dependency – that is, where their residents send to Washington a lot less money than they take in – are the most conservative states. So, will Red states give up their dependency? I have no idea. It does not seem to be in their interest to do so.

    Texas will never have Wall Street, Hollywood, or silicon valley, so I do not know what the Democrats can do for the state’s economy.

    You’re wrong. Texas has a healthy tech sector, located primarily in the Austin area (the only liberal part of Texas.)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

  18. Abdul says:

    I am a Texan and insanely proud of it. Also, you can tell by my name that my race is wrong.

    What we have here though is odd. Wendy Davis has zero chance as do any other democrats. The good race isn’t the general it is the primaries. It really isn’t accepting defeat as a democrat as much as accepting reality. Texas is huge and only has 4 big cities. Those are the only places where any kind of sustained democratic movement has a chance. Austin is the only one there yet. The rest of Texas, the real Texas, if you will, is red. It is just our culture, no ifs, ands, or buts. We are also deeply uneducated. Mind you I am exempting Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas. The resistance to science folks don’t like is amazing here. That is just the way it is, willing dissonance.

    I love our liberals. Wendy Davis is in the mold of the killer Ds, LBJ, Ralph Yarborough, etc. She will be a history maker, but not much will come of it soon.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  19. Gomer says:

    @National Republican Party: Well, Golly Gee Sarg, what party did Ann Richards belong to?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  20. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    Davis’ claim to fame so far is that on one occasion, she did a lot of impressive speaking. No actual accomplishments, just talk.

    Naturally this makes her a rising superstar among Democrats.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 4

  21. National Republican Party says:

    @Gomer: I find your argument about a Democrat who was elected to a single term 20 years ago to be very convincing. Don’t forget Sharp, Hightower, Morales, Bullock, and Mauro. They were re-elected 19 years ago instead of 23 years ago. Definitely relevant to the current political landscape.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  22. Abdul says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: Actually she managed to defeat a bill in session. She did what she set out to do. Perry had to pay for a special session to implement the laws she fought. This is all a democrat can do in Texas, but it is not a small thing. Ted Cruz’s speech was a small thing. He had no way to accomplish a goal. It was the essence of hot air. Davis did her job.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  23. Abdul says:

    But even further, It wasn’t Davis’ talking that killed the bill, it was the cheering of the people. Are you even from here, or are you just carpet bagging?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  24. superdestroyer says:

    @al-Ameda:

    If having middle class, whit e collar whites is the key to having good schools then how does electing liberal Democrats help the schools.. Open borders causes the public schools to be fillled with the children of the third world poor. Increased taxes cause the middle class to either lose the state or stop having children (like California) due to the higher costs of living.

    Also, you showed how progressives keep thinking all voters are educated whites like themselves. Austin is not the only liberal area of Texas. The valley section of Texas votes for liberal at an even higher rate than Austin and their elected leaders are more liberal.

    A vote for Wendy Davis is a vote for more political power for places like Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, El Paso, and the Fifth Ward of Houston while removing the political influence of places like Allen, Katy, and Conroe. Why do progressives want middle class whites to leave the state and take their tax paying ability somewhere else. ?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

  25. Gromitt Gunn says:

    @superdestroyer: Just stop typing, man. The more you type, the more obvious it is that you don’t understand Texas at all. At all.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  26. wr says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: “Davis’ claim to fame so far is that on one occasion, she did a lot of impressive speaking. No actual accomplishments, just talk.”

    You’re right. It’s not like she’s accomplished anything great like yelling at a teacher while funneling state money to corrupt halfway houses run by your buddies. You know, real Republican accomplishments.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  27. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @Abdul: So… she was a speedbump? Is that what you’re saying?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  28. Abdul says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: Not exactly, but a funny way of looking at it. I like it. I’d say more like an advertisement and a rally cry, rather than an actual attempt at winning. It is a precedent to work from in the future.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  29. al-Ameda says:

    @superdestroyer:

    Why do progressives want middle class whites to leave the state and take their tax paying ability somewhere else. ?

    Why do I want those people who vote for Barton, Gohmert, Stockman or Cruz to leave the state? Jeez, if I have to explain that one, you’re in real trouble.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  30. Zach R says:

    @Gromitt Gunn: chill out here homie I guess you did not know that wendy davis found a nice man to pay for harvard and take care of her and her daughter, once she graduated she ditched him. Wow what a good person Davis is.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0