A Season of Flu Deaths in Two weeks
Yet again: this is not "just the flu"
Quite obviously, to anyone paying honest attention, the current pandemic is not “just the flu” if we look at death.
Way back on April 14, 2020, I provided the following in a post on this subject (which I have updated to include the 2019-2020 season):
|Season||Estimated Deaths||95% U I|
|2010-2011||37,000||(32,000 – 51,000)|
|2011-2012||12,000||(11,000 – 23,000)|
|2012-2013||43,000||(37,000 – 57,000)|
|2013-2014||38,000||(33,000 – 50,000)|
|2014-2015||51,000||(44,000 – 64,000)|
|2015-2016||23,000||(17,000 – 35,000)|
|2016-2017||38,000||(29,000 – 61,000)|
|2017-2018*||61,000||(46,000 – 95,000)|
|2018-2019*||34,000||(26,000 – 53,000)|
The total number of deaths due to Covid-19, as this morning, was 398,185 (via Worldometers). We will almost certainly hit 400,000 today.
To provide further context, I added up the number of deaths for the first two weeks of January 2021 and the total is 43,616.
So, in the first two weeks of 2021, more people died from Covid-19 than the estimated deaths from flu in eight of the least ten flu seasons.
At this pace, January will far outstrip any flu season over the last decade.
Another way that Covid-19 is different than the flu, it is clearly more contagious. Via WaPo: Coronavirus shutdowns have quashed nearly all other common viruses. But scientists say a rebound is coming.
Veteran virus trackers say they are chronicling something never before seen — the suppression of virtually every common respiratory and gastrointestinal virus besides the novel coronavirus. They theorize that is largely due to global shutdowns, mask-wearing and a host of other health protocols aimed at stemming the spread of the coronavirus.
The things we are doing (masks, distancing, and generally decreased social contact) is making a host of diseases less prevalent than normal, even as Covid-19 cases increase. People have also been more likely to get their flu shots this year.
As the linked piece notes, there will be plenty to study on this topic going forward.