Hillary Clinton Leads Prospective 2016 Democrats In Iowa

Thirty-eight months from the Iowa Caucuses, Hillary Clinton is lapping the field:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would start out as a dominant favorite in the 2016 Iowa caucuses if she chooses to run for president, a new survey from Public Policy Polling finds.

The PPP poll, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows Clinton taking 58 percent of the Iowa vote in a hypothetical presidential run. Vice President Joe Biden trails far behind at 17 percent, followed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 6 percent and Massachusetts Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren at 3 percent.

None of the other Democrats tested – Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner – cracked 1 percent in the poll.

If Clinton doesn’t run, Biden would jump into the lead with a less-commanding 40 percent of the vote, with Cuomo rising to 14 percent and Warren up to 9 percent. In the event that neither Clinton nor Biden runs, Cuomo draws 30 percent to Warren’s 13 percent, with 46 percent of voters unsure who they’d support.

As one would expect, Clinton and Biden are by far the best-known and best-liked of the Democrats’ potential 2016 field. Both are universally known and have approximately equal favorability ratings: Clinton gets a positive response from 86 percent of Democrats and a negative response from 11 percent. For Biden, those numbers are 85 percent positive, 15 percent negative.

Of the other candidates listed, only Andrew Cuomo was known to a majority of Iowa respondents. Thirty-eight percent had a favorable impression of him, while 16 percent had an unfavorable impression.

O’Malley, Patrick, Schweitzer, Warner and Warren all drew “not sure” answers from a majority of respondents, meaning they have plenty of room to grow as 2016 approaches.

It’s never to late to start!

FILED UNDER: 2016 Election, US Politics, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. Tsar Nicholas says:

    Definitely. Hell, after Obama the biggest winner on Tuesday was Hillary. For obvious reasons.

    But Deval Patrick is the prospective wild card, isn’t he? Recent history proves that blacks first vote by race alone (in primaries) and then they vote by party (in generals). After all that’s how Obama defeated Hillary in ’08. Blacks also make up disproportionate percentages of the Democrat primary base. Obviously not in Iowa or in New Hampshire. But pretty much everywhere else that’s significant.

    Hillary would not want to see Patrick in the field. That could turn out to be deja vu all over again for her.

  2. Console says:

    @Tsar Nicholas:

    Yeah, that’s how Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton won too.

  3. James in LA says:

    Tsar needs a new clock. His old one stopped in 1980.

  4. Gromitt Gunn says:

    @Console: and Carol Mosely Braun.

  5. michael reynolds says:

    @Tsar Nicholas:

    Obviously not in Iowa or in New Hampshire.

    You’re always full of racist bullsh!t and often self-negating, but this was a real gem of self-contradiction. Race! Except in the most important cases.


  6. stonetools says:

    My short list of 2016 Democratic candidates:

    Andrew Cuomo
    Sherrod Brown
    Jerry Brown

    VP picks
    Martin O’Malley
    Tim Kaine

    As to Deval Patrick, don’t see USA electing another black President next cycle, but wouldn’t mind being proven wrong. More likely that Patrick takes over Kerry’s Senate seat when he goes to SoS,Corey Booker for Senate in 2014 . Beyond that, the crystal ball gets murky….

  7. swbarnes2 says:

    I hope the Dems can find a non-white person to run, so that Republicans will make their policy intentions towards non-white people good and obvious.

    Though maybe Obama campaigning hard for the next person will accomplish that.

  8. Janis Gore says:

    @Tsar Nicholas: Ummm. There’s a little problem there, Your Excellency, Hillary was skating close to to the 22nd amendment., and at this point, she’s part of a political dynasty.

    Not acceptable.

  9. Janis Gore says:

    This is an issue that will need addressing in the future, simply because like people gravitate toward one another based on their interests, preferably.

  10. bill says:

    probably because they didn’t actually get to see/hear from her during the campaign- where was she anyway?

  11. T00NCES says:

    Hillary Clinton/Jill Stein 2016. Let’s get this done America.

  12. Chris says:

    @stonetools – Jerry Brown? 2016 would be 40 years since his first run in a presidential primary

  13. troy says:

    @Tsar Nicholas: instead of using your own lack of political knowledge why don’t you realize that white dems will vote for a black candidate, see obama.

    patrick would win new hampshire just like almost every massachusets pol that has run for president recently, see kennedy 1980, dukakis 1988, tsongas 1992, kerry 2004, romney 2012.

    so if you are a pol, either rep. or dem. who win NH walking away.
    hillary isn’t running but patrick will, dems never nominate those who have already run and lost.

    and if blacks as you call us vote on race alone then why didn’t we vote for sharpton in 2004 in the democratic primary?

    don’t be like the repubs. and ignore the advantage the dems have in the minority vote.

    patrick ’16

  14. troy says:

    @stonetools: why not america nominating and electing another black pol. the nomination for president goes to whomever can win in the primary.

    patrick runs in 2016 he comes close in iowa, wins NH and south carolina and the race is over, cause he would win michigan and nevada primaries easy because in all three states the majority of the primary voters will be minority as is south carolina.

    patrick knows he is the favorite on paper to win in 2016 why go to the senate and give that up?
    there is no power circle that chooses presidents or nominees, its all up to the demographics of the electorate. if you don’t believe me see the 2012 election.

    patrick ’16

  15. troy says:

    @Console: jesse jackson only won 11 primaries in 1988 and that was because of the demographics of the primary states he won, and sharpton never won a single primary or causus not even DC.

    black folks are smarter and more sophisticated than you think, again see obama 2008 and 2012.

    patrick ’16

  16. troy says:

    @swbarnes2: the demographics of the country is constantly changing and the only chance the dems have in winning the general election is by nominating someone the black population is comfortable with see clinton in 1992 and 1996 and obama in 2008 and 2012.

    patrick ’16