Obama Leads Romney By 39 Points Among Latino Voters

Another poll indicating just how badly Republicans are doing among Latino voters:

Just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention in Tampa presidential candidate Mitt Romney continues to overwhelmingly lose the Latino vote and has low levels of favorability among the majority of the Latino electorate. The first weekly tracking poll of Latino registered voters by Latino Decisions and impreMedia reveals that 65% would vote to re-elect President Barack Obama and 26% would prefer the Republican alternative offered by Romney.

This figure is similar to that obtained by both candidates in similar surveys of Latino voters but this poll, to be held every week from now until the election, will reveal any change in the image of the candidates during the months of intense electoral campaign to come after the national conventions.

For now, things are not looking too good for Romney in regards to Latinos, said political scientist and research director at Latino Decisions, Gabriel Sanchez.

“As we have seen in recent months and confirm in this survey, Romney has many challenges in making significant inroads with the Latino vote,” said Sanchez.

(…)

Some possible reasons for the stagnation of the Republican candidate are also reflected in the survey. One is the fact that Latino voters primarily blame former President George W. Bush for the state of the economy and not necessarily to President Obama. 68% blamed Bush for the economic downturn of recent years and only 14% blamed Obama.

Another possible clue is the personal popularity of President Obama among these voters, who maintains a high level of 74% favorability, compared to only 27% for Romney.

And, of course, another reason is because of the importance of immigration issues among Latino voters:

This adds to the image problems that Republicans already have among Latinos because of immigration issues and differences of opinion on how to solve the economic problems of the country.

The survey finds that 53% of Latino voters consider the economy and jobs as the most important issue, but the issue of immigration, which for Latinos is also a primary issue which is closely linked to family, was also selected by 51% as one of the most important issues. Immigration barely shows up among the general public as an issue this year.

At this point, I don’t see any possibility that Romney will see his support among Latino voters rise appreciably during the course of this campaign and he will most assuredly get less than the 31% of the Latino vote that John McCain received in 2008. The bigger question, though, is whether 2012 marks a low point for the GOP, or whether their support among Latinos will continue to crater.

FILED UNDER: Barack Obama, Borders and Immigration, Campaign 2012, Politicians, Public Opinion Polls, Quick Takes, Race and Politics, US Politics,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. DC Loser says:

    No surprise. I was in CA during the Prop 187 ordeal and saw what that did to the state GOP.

  2. Tsar Nicholas says:

    Miguel Estrada was unavailable for comment.

    Speaking of which, from a pure Machiavellian standpoint you have to give the media-Democrat machine a lot of credit. All signs are pointing to the creation of another lock step Democrat identity group. Of course the GOP shooting itself in the foot every election cycle hasn’t exactly helped their position.

    The greatest irony with all this, however, which almost certainly will be lost on the chattering classes, is that the people who suffer the most from becoming Democrat identity groups are the members of the groups. If Latinos at large (ex Florida, of course, since that’s a separate demographic) do in fact become a lock step Democrat identity group it’ll bode extraordinarily ill for Latinos. Take a stroll around East Los Angeles or San Bernardino County. Extrapolate.

  3. @Tsar Nicholas:

    That’s really funny. In the same comment you name the things Republicans have done to cut Latinos out of the party, and then blame the media or Democrats for it too.

  4. PJ says:

    Doesn’t matter to the GOP since they are busy making sure that as many as possible latino voters won’t be able to cast any votes.

  5. al-Ameda says:

    Some possible reasons for the stagnation of the Republican candidate are also reflected in the survey. One is the fact that Latino voters primarily blame former President George W. Bush for the state of the economy and not necessarily to President Obama. 68% blamed Bush for the economic downturn of recent years and only 14% blamed Obama.

    I think the Republican Party can chalk up these inspiring polling numbers to the efforts of Governor Jan Brewer and Sheriff Jan Arpaio, co-chairs of the GOP’s Hispanic and Latino Voter Outreach project.

    Add to that, Romney appears to be the guy who would hire a Hispanic voter to operate his car elevator. That does speak to his “likeability” problem.

  6. al-Ameda says:

    @Tsar Nicholas:

    Miguel Estrada was unavailable for comment.

    Refresh my memory. was Miguel Estrada opposed by Congressional Democrats because of his ethnicity or because of his ideology? I recall that it was because of his ideology.

  7. Fausta says:

    Translation: “Latino” = Mexican.

  8. Smooth Jazz says:

    “Another poll indicating just how badly Republicans are doing among Latino voters:”

    And yet, And yet, And yet, the latest Wash Post/ABC poll has Romney leading Obama by 1 pt (47 to 46) – even though this poll oversamples Repubs by 9 points, a ridiculous assumption given how the Ryan pick has energized the Romney ticket and the antipathy so many feel towards Obama to get rid of him. Obama won in 2008 with a Dem partisan gap of Dem +7%. You Libs can push all the Lib memes and “Obama has this in the bag” canards all you want, but there is NO WAY Dems are going to out vote Reps by a greater % than 2008 when Obama was a fresh face and so much of the country was caught up in Hope & Change. Platitudes, bromides, the Todd Akin distraction and/or a pliant Wash DC/NY/Beltway media echo chmaber isn’t going to drag Obama’s rump over the finish line given his record. Sorry to disappoint you and the Lib cranks who have taken over this once balanced and reputable forum.

  9. al-Ameda says:

    @Smooth Jazz:

    And yet, And yet, And yet, the latest Wash Post/ABC poll has Romney leading Obama by 1 pt (47 to 46)

    And yet … this article was about GOP failure with Hispanic and Latino voters, a topic that you dodge entirely.

  10. J-Dub says:

    I wonder how many black Latino lesbians will vote for Mittens? Could he even get one?

  11. anjin-san says:

    Republicans tell Latinos they despise them pretty much constantly. Is this any surprise?

  12. Rob in CT says:

    I can only hope that Democratic voters and leaners actually turn out and vote. That’s the key, and the GOP knows it full well (hence their efforts in PA and OH).

  13. Barry says:

    @Tsar Nicholas: “Of course the GOP shooting itself in the foot every election cycle hasn’t exactly helped their position. ”

    You fail to give the GOP credit. They worked very, very hard for decades to get here. As was pointed out, 187 was a major start, and that was 20(?) years ago. For a full generation the GOP has been saying that Latinos are not white, and shouldn’t be part of the White Peoples’ Party.

  14. bill says:

    factor in the “incumbent edge” along with some of the “entitlement’ crowd and it’s not huge. rubio wouldn’t have helped much as he’s not from south of the border. it’s nowhere near as bad as the black vote- who vote over 90% for whatever democrat runs. they must really know something that the white folks don’t…….really!?

  15. An Interested Party says:

    Speaking of which, from a pure Machiavellian standpoint you have to give the media-Democrat machine a lot of credit. All signs are pointing to the creation of another lock step Democrat identity group. Of course the GOP shooting itself in the foot every election cycle hasn’t exactly helped their position.

    Of course, you give that figment of your imagination (“the media-Democrat machine”) far too much credit…if Republicans/conservatives weren’t so hostile to Hispanics, that ethnic group wouldn’t be running away from the GOP in droves…much like with blacks, Republicans/conservatives have only themselves to blame as to why so many groups want nothing to do with them…

    it’s nowhere near as bad as the black vote- who vote over 90% for whatever democrat runs. they must really know something that the white folks don’t…….really!?

    Hmmm…and why do you think that so many black people so often vote for Democrats? Do tell…