Super Tuesday Open Forum

Joementum?

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Security Studies professor at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Wall Street’s most famous face is worried. Peter Tuchman, the trader whose Einstein-esque features are the most photographed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), hasn’t witnessed a sell-off as bad as this since the 2008 financial crisis. And he thinks it is going to get worse.

    “There’s a lot of fear here. A lot of confusion,” Tuchman said at the end of a week when investor panic over the likely impact of the coronavirus had triggered the worst sell-off in US stock markets for a dozen years.
    ……………………………..
    “This is a big deal,” he said. “And there’s so much yet still unknown. The ghost is still in the closet. We don’t know what’s going to happen. I think the grand global implications are huge. You’ve got stadiums being shut down, schools are being closed. Theme parks are being shut down, casinos are being closed. Planes are not flying.”

    What worries traders is what happens next and right now no one knows and the US government is not giving investors the reassurances they need, he said.

    “I don’t think our administration here has positioned or prepared itself correctly,” he said. “Investors are not stupid. They don’t like to be played and they don’t wait for the president of the United States to go: ‘Nothing to see here. Keep walking.’”

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  2. An Interested Party says:

    What worries traders is what happens next and right now no one knows and the US government is not giving investors the reassurances they need, he said.

    I’m shocked! Aren’t you? I guess this guy will be the next target of a nasty tweet…

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  3. Teve says:

    On chrome on my iPad here google suggests news stories to me and I can’t get it to stop suggesting idiotic Fox News stories. So here is what it just suggested to me this morning:

    “Gregg Jarrett: Hillary Clinton will feign amnesia if forced to testify about her secret email server.”

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  4. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @An Interested Party: Obviously, Wall Street is just out to get trump.

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  5. Jc says:

    If it ain’t Joe, we lose. I don’t see a majority rallying around Sanders.

    Curious to see Q1 and Q2 GDP. Market algorithms caused the “rally” yesterday over hope of more fed action. Feds quiver is empty and cutting rates does not make people get on a plane and travel or go out and spend or really help constrained supply chains.

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  6. OzarkHillbilly says:

    The president……. was accusing moderate former Democratic presidential candidates of dropping out of the 2020 race while also endorsing former Vice President Joe Biden and promising him their delegates – in return for promises he would give them Cabinet posts, if the former VP secures the nomination then wins in November.

    “They made a deal. … Quid pro quo,” Mr Trump said to loud cheers in Charlotte. “They made a deal. Impeach them.”

    He was referring to Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Both dropped out of the race following losses in South Carolina’s Democratic primary on Saturday, which Mr Biden won by a wide margin.

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  7. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Jc:

    Feds quiver is empty and cutting rates does not make people get on a plane and travel or go out and spend or really help constrained supply chains.

    Another tax cut will fix all that.

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  8. An Interested Party says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: Speaking of that rally, it’s hilarious that Donald Trump, of all people, would cast aspersions on anyone else’s mental fitness…

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  9. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @An Interested Party: If there was a just and merciful God…

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  10. Jc says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:
    You joking but you could see another in term number 2….in response to a recession, which would be bad. Maybe DT will get a boost from everyone running out and buying up everything from Costco in virus fear?

    Everything is so bizarre right now. I feel better just tuning out.

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  11. Scott says:

    Trump is again demonstrating he doesn’t understand the economy and how it works. Using the Fed to boost the money supply and liquidity and therefore demand does nothing for this kind of recession. Demand doesn’t do anything if there is no supply to fulfill it. And the problem is the impact on the supply chain that this pandemic makes. Shipping is down about 25%. The huge interlocking supply chains are being broke in many pieces. And you just can’t fix it over night.

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  12. gVOR08 says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Another tax cut will fix all that.

    A couple days ago I posted a link saying the admin is talking about just that. The economy’s great and we’re at peace, we need a tax cut. We’re in recession, we need a tax cut. We’re at war, we need a tax cut. There’s a full moon, we need a tax cut. We’re all going to die of the plague, we need a tax cut. Is there any parody of Republican positions they haven’t lived up to?

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  13. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Jc: @gVOR08: Beat me to it. There is nothing tax cuts can’t do!

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  14. Moosebreath says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    The idea that Trump is complaining about someone else viewing political relationships as transactional in nature. The mind Yahtzees (Boggling is insufficient).

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  15. Kurtz says:

    @Teve:

    Yes, I’ve commented several times that I get mostly RW media sources in my Chrome feed.

    But tech companies supress conservative sources.

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  16. Kathy says:

    @Teve:
    @Kurtz:

    I use the Google app on my Android phones. Besides the configuration options in settings, you can silence a topic or source. So when I taped “not interested in stories from Fox news,” I largely stopped getting them. The suggestions in the Chrome feed match almost exactly those on the Google app.

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  17. Kathy says:

    I was thinking about the famous fox breeding experiments in Russia, which have (arguably) produced dog-like foxes in a rather short time.

    I wonder, what if we began doing such experiments on other species, selecting for specific traits? Remember the various apes and monkeys which were taught sign language and other means of communication? Suppose in addition to that, researchers selectively bred those most adept at communicating with people.

    Such experiments would take a long time. Apes and monkey breed more slowly and have fewer young. But the results might amaze our descendants.

    Or we could pick other animals. Say crows, which seem to be able to learn behaviors which net them food.

    We do know one potential danger. We’ve been breeding dogs selectively for ages, and now inbreeding has caused a lot of health issues in many breeds.

    So creating a smarter ape or bird may not be a favor to them.

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  18. Daryl and his brother Darryl says:

    The Fed cut interest rates by half a point? WTF?
    What are they going to do when the real recession starts? They are leaving themselves little room to move, in an effort to keep Trump from mean-tweeting about them.

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  19. Kathy says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl:

    What are they going to do when the real recession starts?

    Pay you interest and give you a free toaster when you borrow money?

    Actually more like a discount. Borrow $10 billion, pay back $9.5 billion. Because if you were paid interest on borrowed money, you’d simply default until the interest payments eat the principal (maybe that’s how banking works in Bizarro World).

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  20. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Kathy:

    In science-fiction, that’s known as “uplifting”. I think it was David Brin that coined the term. He has a series of novels where we humans have “uplifted” dolphins and made them essentially as smart as humans.

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  21. DrDaveT says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    In science-fiction, that’s known as “uplifting”. I think it was David Brin that coined the term. He has a series of novels where we humans have “uplifted” dolphins and made them essentially as smart as humans.

    Yes — the Human Exceptionalism in that series is that humans (uniquely) seem not have been uplifted by any extant intelligent species, but achieved intelligence without help. This causes political and religious problems among the Powers That Be.

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  22. Kathy says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    Some would say that involves dumbing down the dolphins…

    Clarke had smart apes assisting in domestic chores in spaceships in the first Rama book (no mention in any of the sequels), Heinlein had them farming in a novella “Jerry Was a Man.” it’s rather common.

    But usually there’s genetic engineering involved, and we see the end result and not the process. besides, it is something we can really do. But the justification would be hard to come by. the fox experiment, as I recall, was meant to farm docile foxes for use in the fur trade.

    Say you want to make smarter apes to get them to do arduous manual labor, and you’ll open all sorts of cans of trouble. Between something close to re instituting slavery and driving people off their jobs, that could get ugly quickly.

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  23. Kathy says:

    Advance apologies, but I just have to get this out of the way:

    What is Super Tuesday’s Kryptonite?

    I’ll behave now.

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  24. grumpy realist says:

    @Kathy: Actually, it’s quite possible that “uplifting” could be created by using self-assembly of molecules to create more neural networks in the brain and then rapidly programming them. Also possible to help people with Alzheimer’s.

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  25. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Kathy:

    The concept is old, yes. I was speaking to the terminology. Before Brin, I don’t think it had a commonly accepted name.

    The thing is…. there’s really no up-side to it. Anything that could (would) be done by more intelligent apes could be done better by specialized robots. And we’d get a final product far sooner than any breeding.

    In many parts of Asia, monkeys and baboons are already used in construction work. Asian fishermen have also trained birds to bring in specific types of fish (they get to keep the 8th one). And airliner manufacturers use ferrets to run “pull strings” through wiring ducts. No need to make them more intelligent, just treat them well and give them treats.

    Intelligent animals have the possibility of revolt (along with all the moral issues, as you point out). Short of the Cylon rebellion, we’re safe from robots.

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  26. Kathy says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    The thing is…. there’s really no up-side to it.

    Scientific knowledge. We may learn how humans evolved advanced intelligence by watching how apes get there (it would take decades at least, more likely centuries). We may simply gain insight in intelligence by having a different intelligence to study, with beings who can communicate their subjective states to us (and we to them).

    Intelligent animals have the possibility of revolt (along with all the moral issues, as you point out).

    Yeah, that’s a big problem.

    I don’t expect any of it to happen. Not now.

    But it’s interesting to think about.

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  27. Daryl and his brother Darryl says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl:

    The Fed cut interest rates by half a point? WTF?

    The market is currently down ~300 points.
    Apparently caving to Trump’s market obsession isn’t effective economic policy.
    FYI – I believe this is the biggest single cut since the 2008 Bush Contraction.

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  28. Kathy says:

    Predictions are hard. especially about the future.

    Nevertheless:

    Should Biden or Sanders win,particularly the former, I doubt wither of them would run for a second term. But if they say so at the outset, they become instant lame ducks. So we’ll hear a lot about reelection very soon.

    And who knows. Maybe 80 is the new 60 (not it’s not)

    I don’t think the pretense can be sustained for more than a year, if that long.

    If a Democrat takes the White House (fingers crossed) but the GOP keeps the Senate, I estimate a very good chance Moscow Mitch will go for a repeat performance and refuse to hold confirmation hearings or a vote on any Supreme Court nominees, even for the full term of the Democratic president.

    I don’t think he will obstruct all cabinet appointments, but he will definitely try to hold up some.

    It will get really ugly.

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  29. Mu Yixiao says:

    Is it too late for Lyndon LaRouche to get in the race?

    If we’re going to have crazy, extreme candidates, let’s go all the way. 😀

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  30. Slugger says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl: Down 682 at this moment. A fine expression of confidence in the man at the helm.
    I think Joe Biden should announce that once he becomes President he’ll appoint his son as a special envoy to negotiate in the Middle East. Hunter may have made money via cheesy connections, but he didn’t need to be rescued from nearly losing a billion or so on a Manhattan real estate deal.

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  31. James Joyner says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    Is it too late for Lyndon LaRouche to get in the race?

    He died last February, so probably.

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  32. Liberal Capitalist says:

    @Kathy:

    Such experiments would take a long time. Apes and monkey breed more slowly and have fewer young. But the results might amaze our descendants.

    Have you learned NOTHING from Planet of the Apes ??!!??

    Take your stinking paws off me you damn dirty ape!

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  33. Mu Yixiao says:

    @James Joyner:

    Hence the joke. 🙂

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  34. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Liberal Capitalist:

    Except we didn’t uplift the apes (in the original version). They’re a paradox. Apes from the future went back to the past and had babies that took over the world, thus creating their own ancestors.

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  35. Kathy says:

    @Liberal Capitalist:

    I learned in the original movies, the actors wearing the ape masks had to make faces under the masks in order to effect facial movements on them. it must have been hell wearing those things.

    I never much cared for those movies, the originals or the remakes, nor the TV show that spawned in the 70s.

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  36. Mu Yixiao says:

    Interesting article in the NYT about Silicon Valley big business saying “anyone but Sanders“.

    Also some stuff about a new moderate-democratic party called the “Common Sense Party”. I’m unfamiliar with California’s internal politics. Does anyone know anything about this new party and its likelihood of gaining traction?

    Edit: grammatical abomination

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  37. Gustopher says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    The thing is…. there’s really no up-side to it.

    How is an ape butler not an amazing upside?

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  38. Gustopher says:

    @Slugger:

    I think Joe Biden should announce that once he becomes President he’ll appoint his son as a special envoy to negotiate in the Middle East.

    I would kind of love that. And the Republican ethical limbo dance that would follow.

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  39. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Gustopher:

    How is an ape butler not an amazing upside?

    The last thing I would want is an animal that can toss a small car getting frustrated because his giant hands can’t tie his bow tie or properly fold the dinner napkins into little swans.

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  40. Mikey says:

    With Super Tuesday and coronavirus and the Dow’s continuing collapse dominating the news, this manifestation of Trump’s utter idiocy flew in under the radar:

    U.N. agency sees sharp increase in Iran’s uranium stockpile, potentially reducing time needed to build nuclear bomb

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  41. Mister Bluster says:

    @Mu Yixiao:..Short of the Cylon rebellion, we’re safe from robots.

    And it is much easier to control them by changing out their heads.

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  42. Vincent Zebraitis says:

    @Mu Yixiao:

    The last thing I would want is an animal that can toss a small car getting frustrated because his giant hands can’t tie his bow tie or properly fold the dinner napkins into little swans.

    I suggest that you never hire Russians.

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  43. Mister Bluster says:

    So now the moderation robot is a film critic.

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  44. Teve says:

    A Military Historian’s Look at the Siege of Gondor in Peter Jackson’s Return of the King

    posted by Jason Kottke Mar 03, 2020
    In a six-part series on his blog, Roman military historian Bret Devereaux took a close look at the Siege of Gondor in Peter Jackson’s Return of the King, the final movie in the Lord of the Rings trilogy.

    Looking at the logistics of moving the Army of Mordor to Minas Tirith is actually a great way to introduce some of these problems in more depth. They say ‘amateurs talk tactics, but professionals study logistics.’ Well, pull up a chair at the Grown-Ups Table, and let’s study some logistics.

    The army Sauron sends against Minas Tirith is absolutely vast — an army so vast that it cannot fit its entire force in the available frontage, so the army ends up stacking up in front of the city.

    The books are vague on the total size of the orcish host (but we’ll come back to this), but interview material for the movies suggests that Peter Jackson’s CGI team assumed around 200,000 orcs. This army has to exit Minas Morgul — apparently as a single group — and then follow the road to the crossing at Osgiliath. Is this operational plan reasonable, from a transit perspective?

    In a word: no. It’s not hard to run the math as to why. Looking at the image at the head of the previous section, we can see that the road the orcs are on allows them to march five abreast, meaning there are 40,000 such rows (plus additional space for trolls, etc). Giving each orc four feet of space on the march (a fairly conservative figure), that would mean the army alone stretches 30 miles down a single road. At that length, the tail end of the army would not even be able to leave camp before the front of the army had finished marching for the day. For comparison, an army doing a ‘forced march’ (marching at rapid speed under limited load — and often taking heat or fatigue casualties to do it) might manage 20 to 30 miles per day. Infantry on foot is more likely to average around 10 miles per day on decent roads.

    linky

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  45. Mu Yixiao says:

    @Teve: @Teve:

    I hate you. I’m going to spend hours reading that site now.

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  46. Mister Bluster says:

    “We don’t want violence,” Witch Doctor Trump told reporters at the White House after talking to Taliban on the phone today.
    USA Today

    President Pud must have turned into a pussy since he was on the campaign railon the campaign trail.
    “If you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously, OK? Just knock the hell … I promise you I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise,” he said on Feb. 1, 2016.
    At a Las Vegas rally later that month, he said security guards were too gentle with a protester. “He’s walking out with big high-fives, smiling, laughing,” Trump said. “I’d like to punch him in the face, I’ll tell you.”
    …at a rally in Warren, Michigan. “Get him out,” he said of a protester. “Try not to hurt him. If you do, I’ll defend you in court. Don’t worry about it.”
    Source

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  47. Kathy says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    Don’t you know it’s very easy to be brave when you only talk about what you’ll do, but don’t have to actually do it?

    But that’s not even bravery. Bluster, maybe. Bravery, or courage, is when you’re scared out of your skull, and go ahead and do what needs to be done anyway.

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  48. Teve says:

    WHO’s new Coronavirus CFR estimate is 3.4%.

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  49. Teve says:

    @Mu Yixiao: I hate me too, buddy.

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  50. MarkedMan says:

    Take a look at this and then try to tell me Trump is anything other than a moron.

    I probably said it in the first post I ever made here regarding Trump, and in dozens since: the most important thing to understand about Trump is that he is a f*cking moron.

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  51. DrDaveT says:

    @James Joyner:

    [Lyndon Larouche] died last February

    Oddly enough, this actually increased his attractiveness as a candidate.

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  52. Teve says:

    Funniest headline of the night so far “Bloomberg associates say things not going according to plan.”

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  53. MarkedMan says:

    @MarkedMan: It turns out he kept it up at the very next meeting

    But on Tuesday, during a gathering of the National Association of Counties, Trump presented a rosy outlook. “We’re moving at a maximum speed to develop the therapies, not only the vaccines, but therapies,” he said. “Therapies is sort of another word for cure. ”

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  54. EddieInCA says:

    Not a good night for Bloomberg so far.
    Not a good night for Bernie so far.
    Warren doing better than expected in Texas.
    A good night for Joe so far.
    Tulsi got a delegate.
    Bloomberg won a primary… in American Samoa. Gabbard was second. What’s in the water there?

    Pete and Amy were smart. Very smart.

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  55. Teve says:

    Bernie Bros are attacking Warren for reducing Sanders’ votes.

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  56. EddieinCA says:

    @Teve:

    Teve says:
    Tuesday, March 3, 2020 at 21:13
    Bernie Bros are attacking Warren for reducing Sanders’ votes.

    I wonder if they realize that by attacking her, they make it more likely Biden sweeps in and grabs the endorsement when she bails. As much as she’s progressive, she’s also believes in the system and doesn’t desire the “Burn it all down” ethos of the Bernie Bros.

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  57. Tyrell says:

    @gVOR08: I think it is a good idea. A tax cut or make changes to the tax codes that would give us larger deductions.

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  58. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Kathy: Your comment reminds me of a line a minor character tossed of in on of the “Wheel of Time” novels:

    At the origins of every so-called noble house is a farmer who was either more courageous or had less to lose than his fellows.

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  59. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Teve: Not according to Warren’s plan either I would guess. She spent 3 debates beating him like a red-headed stepchild and she’s not even running out of the money better than he is from what I was seeing in the early returns (4:30 PST).

    ETA:Even if she places in the money in 3 or 4 contests, she needs to figure out the her 15 minutes of fame are ovah.

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  60. EddieInCA says:

    NBC New is reporting “Bloomberg will reassess his campaign tomorrow morning. He has not purchased any ad time for after Super Tuesday”.

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  61. EddieInCA says:

    Nate Silver

    @NateSilver538

    Turnout in Virginia up from ~800K in 2016 to ~1.3M this year. It doesn’t seem great for Sanders’s electability narrative that turnout seems to be increasing more in states where he isn’t doing as well.

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  62. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @-gVOR08: Aannnnndddd Tyrell shows us why the pitch works so well. 😀

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  63. MarkedMan says:

    @Teve: whocuddathunkit?

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  64. gVOR08 says:

    @Teve: Yeah. But the Rohirim weren’t exactly military geniuses either. They built their great fortress at the bottom of the cliff.

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  65. Mister Bluster says:

    Sanders takes California.

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  66. wr says:

    @EddieInCA: “Gabbard was second. What’s in the water there?”

    Gabbard seems to have won her delegate with 103 votes. Had I known, I could have campaigned there, handed out twenties, and come out with one delegate of my very own.

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