Trouble For Joe Miller In Alaska?
A Hayes Research poll has Joe Miller in 3rd place in Alaska. They're the only ones showing that and have a very poor track record.
Via Politico comes news of a new poll that could indicate trouble for Republican Senate candidate Joe Miller after two weeks of bad press and campaign mis-steps:
After several rough weeks on the campaign trail, a new poll out of Alaska shows Republican Joe Miller has fallen to last place in the three-way Senate race.
A Hays Research Group poll released Thursday showed write-in candidates, presumably meaning Sen. Lisa Murkowski, in the lead with 34 percent, Democrat Scott McAdams with 29 percent and Miller with 23 percent. Murkowski is waging a write-in bid since losing the Republican primary to Miller.
Miller’s plunge in the new poll comes on the heels of several misfires in the local and national press. Most recently, Miller’s employment records from his job as a part-time attorney with local government were unsealed Tuesday, in which he admitted to using company computers for political purposes and then lied about it.
Miller had a high 68 percent unfavorable rating in the independent poll, which was taken Oct. 25 to 26. The poll appeared to ask the opinion of 500 respondents — not registered or likely voters, like most political polls. The poll appeared first on the local liberal blog The Mudflats.
Of course, a poll of anything other than likely voters may not mean much at this point but if Miller’s negatives among Likely Voters are anything like what’s reflected here, he could have a last minute problem on his hands.
UPDATE (James Joyner): As of this morning, Nate Silver has a 66% chance of Joe Miller winning and has it Miller 39%, Murkowski 34%, and McAdams 26%. RealClearPolitics has the Miller-Murkowski numbers as nearly dead even. Regardless, considering that Murkowski has already said she’ll remain a Republican if re-elected, the chances of a Republican winning are actually 100%.