Donald Trump Is Surging In Yet Another Poll

Republicans aren't going to like this one.

Trump Announcement

Donald Trump has jumped into second place in a new national poll:

There’s been a lineup change in the race for the GOP nomination, as businessman Donald Trump moves up after declaring his candidacy. He’s now second in the order after former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who also got an uptick in support after his formal announcement.

For Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still — by far — the team leader, according to a new Fox News national poll on the 2016 presidential election.

Bush tops the list of GOP contenders with 15 percent support among Republican primary voters.  That’s up from 12 percent last month and his best showing yet.  Support for Trump more than doubled since his announcement and that catapults him into the top tier at 11 percent. He’s followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10 percent.  No one else receives double-digit backing.

Bush officially kicked off his campaign June 15 and Trump launched June 16. It’s common for candidates to see a bump in their numbers in the days following their formal announcement and the media coverage that comes with that.

The bad news for Trump is that only 29 percent of GOP primary voters consider him a serious candidate.  More than twice that many — 64 percent — think he’s a side show.  Among all registered voters, nearly 8 in 10 say Trump is a side show (77 percent).

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has not announced whether he will run, comes in at nine percent.  That’s down from 12 percent a month ago and the first time Walker has been in single digits since January.

The poll finds support for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (9 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (8 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (6 percent) holding steady among GOP primary voters.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz receives 4 percent, and businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum get 3 percent apiece.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who announced his candidacy June 24, gets 2 percent.

The fact that Trump has so much animosity toward him by people who say that they would vote for another candidate or are undecided likely means that, at least for the time being, his upside potential in these polls isn’t very good. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t some upside potential for him, though, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him jump up in the polls at least in the short term. Additionally, it’s important to note that the short-term, and these national polls which are not very useful in terms of figuring out the battle is going on the ground in the states themselves, is really all that matters right now.

The national polls conducted over the next month will be the ones that determine which candidates are invited to the early debates and which are not, which will likely determine the future of more than a few of the candidates at the bottom of the pack because failure to get into the early debates could be fatal to candidates who are already polling in the 1-3% range. As of right now, Trump would be included in the top ten in the polls based on the polling average while candidates such as Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, John Kaisch, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and George Pataki would be excluded. If you just based the selection on this new Fox poll, the top ten would include Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and Rick Santorum. The candidates excluded would be people such as Rick Perry, Chris Christie, John Kaisch, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and Scott Walker.Either way, Donald Trump would make the debate cut, and if that happens then there are likely to be headaches for everyone else on the stage. 

It’s going to be insane, it’s going to cause you to want you to pound your head into a desk. It’s going to be glorious.

Update: Late Thursday afternoon a new CNN/WMUR poll was released showing Trump pulling into second place in New Hampshire behind Jeb Bush.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. HarvardLaw92 says:

    When you grow Audrey II, you have to feed Audrey II. They made their own mess; let them either lie in it or fix it.

  2. gVOR08 says:

    The sad decline of what was once a respected political party into being a cheap reality show. I have got to invent an emoticon for shaking head sadly from side to side.

  3. al-Ameda says:

    First ACA is upheld, now Trump is surging in yet another poll – good news abounds.

  4. michael reynolds says:

    Trump is the perfect Republican candidate. He’s absolutely clueless about absolutely every issue, he’s obnoxious, loud and filled with bile and rage. . . what’s not to like for a Republican? I can’t believe he’s not way out in front.

  5. Neil Hudelson says:

    If you just based the selection on this new Fox poll, the top ten would include Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and Rick Santorum. The candidates excluded would be people such as Rick Perry, Chris Christie, John Kaisch, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and Scott Walker.

    I think you meant to include a different candidate at the end of the “excluded” list, but I can’t figure out which. Pataki, perhaps?

  6. Facebones says:

    @michael reynolds: He’s also perfect in that he acts like a self made man who got to where he is with no help from nobody, except that if his daddy hadn’t propped him up he’d be lucky to be managing a Denny’s.

  7. Ron Beasley says:

    @gVOR08: Agreed – it’s the FOX news talk radio effect.

  8. grumpy realist says:

    (Giggle)

    Well, this is what happens when you let your political party slip into the hands of the carnival barkers and grifters….I’m only surprised they haven’t shoved a snake handler up there.

    Jon Stewart must be shaking his head in disbelief.

  9. Facebones says:

    I take these polls as seriously as the ones in 2011 that had Michelle Bachman and Herman Cain as the front runners, i.e. not at all.

  10. PJ says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    I think you meant to include a different candidate at the end of the “excluded” list, but I can’t figure out which. Pataki, perhaps?

    I think it is in reference to Walker’s two faced nature.
    Or there is some struggle between the Koch brothers about what Scott Walker should think.

  11. Ron Beasley says:

    @PJ: Walker is just one of the Republican governors who has destroyed his state’s budget to appease Norquest.

  12. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Facebones:

    Fred Trump was worth $400 million when he died. The myth of Donald Trump being self-made is just that – a raging myth. Fred was self-made – Donald was a kid who won the genetic lottery.

  13. Given this Trump Bump is only showing up in Fox polling, this could just be people trolling the Fox pollsters rather than an actual indication of support for Trump.

  14. gVOR08 says:

    @grumpy realist:

    Jon Stewart must be shaking his head in disbelief.

    and glee.

  15. michael reynolds says:

    @Facebones:

    Someone should do an analysis and see what 400 million dollars invested in real estate decades ago would be worth just because of market factors excluding Trump’s alleged genius.

  16. Pete S says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    Given this Trump Bump is only showing up in Fox polling, this could just be people trolling the Fox pollsters rather than an actual indication of support for Trump.

    It could also be Fox, cooking the numbers to try and drag him into the top 10 and help out the debate ratings.

  17. Pete S says:

    @HarvardLaw92:I think Donald Trump considers himself self-made since he squandered his father’s money along with that of his investors in his various bankruptcies, while the money he hid away was the result of his own effort and genius.

  18. @michael reynolds:

    The fact he went bankrupt running a casino tells you all you need to know about Trump’s “genius”.

  19. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Pete S:

    In the course of my career. I’ve gotten to know / been exposed to many high net worth individuals who became that way by virtue of inheritance.

    Almost every single one of them considers themselves to be self-made / to have earned their wealth. It’s a remarkable exercise in self-delusion.

  20. grumpy realist says:

    @Stormy Dragon: Yes, how do you go bankrupt running a casino?!

    Maybe Donald thought that if the ball landed on “0” and “00” on the roulette wheel you were supposed to pay the PLAYERS.

  21. Argon says:

    @HarvardLaw92: When you grow Audrey II,…

    Zing! It took me a while to recognize the reference to Little Shop of Horrors.

  22. jukeboxgrad says:

    Trump is the perfect Republican candidate.

    Here’s another reason you didn’t mention. Trump is the perfect Republican candidate because the core concept of Republicanism is the worship of money, and nobody embodies that concept better than Trump does.

    This is Trump’s core message: ‘I’m made of money, so love me.’ That was also Mitt’s core message; one conveys the message vulgarly, and the other conveyed it genteelly, but it’s the same message.

    A famous old photo captures a moment when Mitt forgot to be genteel.

  23. jukeboxgrad says:

    Someone should do an analysis and see what 400 million dollars invested in real estate decades ago would be worth just because of market factors excluding Trump’s alleged genius.

    Fred Trump died on 6/25/99, when Donald was 53 and already rich. So Fred’s worth when he died (I’ve seen estimates of $250-400 million) only gives us one part of the picture. The rest of the picture is the total benefits (tangible and intangible) passed from Fred to Donald during the former’s lifetime. I don’t think anyone knows that exact number but we can assume it’s large.

    FWIW, during Trump’s lifetime the Dow has appreciated by a factor of roughly 100.

  24. grumpy realist says:

    Well, The Donald has managed to piss off Univision enough that they’ve decided they’re not going to be broadcasting the Miss Universe pageant. So of course old Donald is suing them.