Donald Trump Leads In New National Poll
The GOP's Trump-induced headache isn't going away any time soon.
While media outlets continue to report on the ongoing fallout from his controversial remarks about immigrants, and Republicans fret about the impact he having on the party and what his presence will do to the upcoming debate, Donald Trump comes out on top in a new national poll:
Media coverage of Donald Trump’s controverisal immigration remarks have lifted the GOP presidential candidate to the top of the Republican field, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll.
Trump was the preferred GOP nominee for president for 15 percent of respondents — 4 points ahead of former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) and Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), who were tied for second place.
Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.), Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) shared the third spot with 9 percent each.
In addition to being the first choice for the majority of likely voters who participated in the poll, Trump was also the primary second choice for those who preferred another candidate as their nominee.
12 percent of respondents said Trump was second in line for their vote, while only 7 percent picked either Bush or Paul as their safety candidate.
While Trump may be on top this week, registered Republican voters gave him a very weak chance of holding on to that spot in the long run.
The vast majority of respondents — 29 percent — said they believed Jeb Bush would ultimately claim the GOP presidential nomination. Only 7 percent said the same about Trump.
It’s worth noting that the YouGov is slightly different from most other traditional polling in that it relies upon a pre-selected panel of registered voters and is conducted online rather than over the phone or in person. In the past, some analysts have questioned the polls reliability because of this, and it’s worth keeping this in mind when looking at one of the polls from this company. At the same time, though, it’s worth noting that in post-election analysis of pollster performance in both 2012 and 2014, YouGov was ranked roughly in the middle of the pack among the two dozen or so national polling companies that were evaluated. Not among the best of the pollsters, but they weren’t ranked among the worst either and they did better at predicting the outcome of those elections than some traditional pollsters who have been around much longer. Additionally, it’s worth noting that YouGov has traditionally not been included among the polls that RealClearPolitics uses to calculate its polling averages, and the most recent national poll before today had Trump in second place some seven points behind Jeb Bush. Notwithstanding all of that, though, these numbers are generally consistent with other polling that has shown Trump rising to or near the top of the crowded Republican field, including a new Public Policy Polling survey out of North Carolina that shows Trump leading the field with 16% of the vote , Jeb Bush and Scott Walker at 12%, Mike Huckabee at 10%, and all of the other candidates in single digits. Given that, it’s not entirely inconceivable to see a poll that shows Trump at the top of a very crowded field, especially since the size of the field right now means that it doesn’t take much of a candidate to be at the top.
All of this news comes amid continuing reports about Republican unease with Trump and the impact that his rhetoric is having on the Presidential race during this relatively quiet period in the news cycle and the impact it having on the party as a whole. Last night, for example, The Washington Post reported that RNC Chairman Reince Priebus had talked to Trump for nearly an hour yesterday after being urged for days by top GOP donors to do something about the rhetoric that was coming from Trump Tower in Manhattan. The report went on to note, based on sources, that Priebus urged Trump to tone down his rhetoric because of the impact it could have on the efforts of others in the party to reach out to Latino voters. Trump responded this morning by saying he had only had a short conversation with Priebus and that the Chairman had never asked him tone down his rhetoric, then he told The Washington Post that he wasn’t going to rule out the idea of running as a third-party candidate if he failed to win the Republican nomination. In other words, the Trump headache for the GOP is just beginning, and it’s probably going to get a lot worse.
The word of the day is “Schadenfreude”
More importantly, he has 27% of Republicans voting for him as either first or second choice- putting him in the same league as the Herman Cains and Michelle Bachman’s of the world. The difference: he is pretty much immune to the tactics that were used to bring them down, has money, and is a very good showman. Prepare the popcorn!
I am starting to see this race a little differently. I thought that Trump’s presence would force the marginal candidates to start making more and more extreme statements to try to get attention. But now, they have to be kind of looking at each other saying “How do we top this lunacy?” The other candidates may actually have to start distinguishing themselves by acting responsible. Whether or not they can pull it off remains to be seen.
It’s about time!!!
Trump is the GOP id. All rage. All anger. All bluster.
Problems with Iran? I’ll negotiate with them. I can do a deal with them.
Problems with Russia? I love the Russian people. I can do business with Putin. Obama can’t.
Problems with Mexico? I’ll build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. Oh, and by the way, I will win the Latino vote. The Mexican people love me.
Problems with Isis? I’ll bomb the hell out of them and take their oil. I’ll stop ISIS.
If Trump wasn’t real, The Onion would have to make him up.
In a word…. AWESOME!
Who could have foreseen this – a bigoted, ignorant, immature narcissist resonating with today’s “conservatives”?
It’s not just that Trump says things most Republicans believe but are too dishonest to speak aloud; it’s also that he can effortlessly draw the focus of the media, keeping the cameras blind to anyone who is 1) Not Trump or 2) Not responding to Trump.
Kasich? What’s a Kasich? How do the bland ones even get noticed when the Donald is handing a lazy media its daily headline?
May it go on and on and on.
@Pete S: I’m thinking Jeb! Bush? is going to have to pick one of the middle seat of the Clown Car candidates and promise him a cabinet post if he’ll kamikaze against Trump in the first debate. Is there a Secretary of Commerce Christie in our future?
This would be hilarious if it weren’t for the fear that one of these people could accidentally get elected.
The Republicans, through their propaganda, deliberately courted and prepared just the kind of electorate that would respond to a Trump, who is simply saying openly and loudly just the kind of thing more polished Republicans say by dogwhistle . Reince is just mad that Trump refuses to play the dogwhistle game. Unfortunately, they can’t turn him off because he is his own billionaire donor and really likes the attention.So he just goes around out there trashing the Republicans’ brand, and he will do it for as long as he wants. I’m sure the Democrats want him to keep going all the way to November 2016.
Paul Begala: “Donald Trump is God’s gift to the Democratic party, cable TV pundits, and late night comics. We’re all having a Trumpgasm.”
@gVOR08:
You could do a Sister Souljah with Trump except that black voters didn’t really care about Sister Souljah one way or the other, while Republicans love them some Trump. They are Trump.
So how do you win a fight with the id of your own party? The only point of attack likely to be effective is the “you can’t beat Hillary,” tack. Which would work a bit better if Jeb were not on a debate stage with nine other guys who also can’t beat Hillary.
@gVOR08: The problem is of course that Trump is a great showman- he can plausibly make hash of someone trying to attack him on debate stage, as long as he can say stupid things- and GOP voters love stupid things! No, killing him will take a different form: leaking “liberal” statements he made in the past, and, pure speculation, digging up women he sexually assaulted….
@stonetools: I believe Begala also said that Trump is proof that God is a Democrat, and that She’s got a wicked sense of humor.
I wonder how much of this is defeatism, we know we can’t beat Hilary, at least lets get a candidate who says what we think.
@stonetools:
Yes, this is absolutely true. The party itself is in an impossible position. If the base actually knew more about Trump than what he has said in his recent speeches they would hate him (pro-choice, pro-immigration, pro-health care). But they don’t know, and he is appealing to all of their worst impulses so if the party does find a way to run him off they lose the base. If they don’t run him off they lose the grownup voters, both in the party and independent.
@gVOR08:
This might be the scariest part of the Chinese stock market crash – if it carries on and causes a widespread recession that could easily get one of these guys elected.
@humanoid.panda: Exactly. We’ve already learned that 20 years ago, back when Heritage was starting to outline what became Romneycare etc., Trump said that healthcare was a right and not a privilege (gasp!). And he donated money to the Clinton Foundation. Which they are not giving back.
It’s stuff like this that keeps American politics so entertaining. That and Trump’s wife. Even my beauty-obsessed teen-aged daughter has informed me that Mrs. Trump is NOT appropriate for the White House.
@gVOR08:
“Is there a Secretary of Commerce Christie in our future?”
While a Trump vs. Christie cage match would mean peak popcorn has arrived, I think Christie would hold out for Attorney General.
@Moosebreath: Naw. He’d want commerce. AG’s can’t refuse to build tunnels and shut down bridges.
Ah, yes…the face of today’s Republican Party.
This, my friends, is what the right-wing entertainment complex has wrought.
Poor William F. must be spiinning in his grave.
For some reason I immediately thought of the sleazy yuppie in Die Hard trying to negotiate with Alan Rickman.
Did not go well.
Had a good laugh at that phrase, it’s like he’s supervillain.
@C. Clavin: Your right but is started with Lee Atwater and the Southern Strategy. It worked for a few generations but the old white Bible thumping bigots are rapidly becoming the minority.
I still think that this is Trump’s way of pranking the entire Republican Party, so his good friend Hillary Clinton can get elected, appoint Trump Secretary of State, and then Trump can go over to Russia and say: “Putin, you’re FIRED!”
If Trump is first, Bush and Paul tied for second, then Walker, Rubio, and Huckabee are tied for fourth, not third.
@James P:
I love Trump because he one of the few alleged billionaires to have bankrupted a casino resort operation. That unfiltered speak your mind stuff only goes so far. As you know, Sarah Palin also has the “guts” to say all kinds of thoughtless uninformed things that many others are too chicken-feces to say. That said, she’s the kind of person I’d like to sit down with and have a Draft Caribou Extra Pale Ale.
I’ a Democrat and I’m thrilled that Trump is now (though far too early) outpolling the Republican field. This is a tribute to FoxNews and the ability of people to be as “mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore,” as they can be.
@James P: The problem with this scenario is Mexico has very little oil left – they are already an importer rather than an exporter.
Oh, look! A famous name has a 15% plurality in an unconstrained poll!
Reminder: a list of people who “led the polls” at some point in 2011-12: Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Cain. At times, Bachmann and Paul were also polling well. And in the end it was Romney.
Repeat after me: polls mean nothing. Polls taken 16 months before an election mean nothing. Poll of unconstrained pluralities *never* mean anything. Call me February when some of the egos have dropped out.
If Trump is such an awful person, will Hillary and all the other Democrats who’ve taken his donations over the years give it back?
People are already having fun digging into the things Trump said in 2012. He’s on video saying that Romney’s comments about illegal aliens “self-deporting” was “crazy” and “maniacal.”
I’ll repeat it: Trump’s run is a scam of some sort. But he’s useful right now as a flak-catcher, so I hope he’ll stick around a bit longer.
And isn’t it an unfortunate coincidence that right after he started about how dangerous illegal aliens are, an American citizen is murdered by an illegal alien who had been deported five times before, was under arrest but released because San Francisco is a Sanctuary City, and the guy admitted on camera that he had gone to San Franscisco specifically because it is a Sanctuary City. Oh, and Obama’s ICE director had recently had to flip-flop and say that Sanctuary Cities deciding to ignore federal immigration law was just fine and dandy.
Oh, and the gun? Registered to a federl agent. No word if it was reported lost/stolen.
Did Trump pay that Mexican to kill Ms. Steinle? Because that just fulfilled almost every single stereotype Trump was pushing. Even down to the drug convictions in the past.
I want to see the birth certificate for that thing that lives on Trump’s head….
Ron Beasley, yes, that’s the problem with his plan. If Mexico had more oil it would come off without a hitch.
He’s declared bankrupcy about 4 times. Yet he keeps talking banks and investors into giving him more money.
He is like Greece. Except he doesn’t do austerity.
And now Trump’s making noises about “running third party” if the Republican big cheeses don’t let him into the clubhouse.
Moar popcorn, plz….
I find Trump’s putridity rather likable. It’s refreshing to hear someone say whatever happens to be on his mind no matter how offensive it is. I’m really hoping to see him in the Republican debates.
Meanwhile Sanders gains ground on Hillary, getting huge crowds with his middle class/seniors program.
Both may end up running independent. Wouldn’t that be something if they paired up ?
Instead of pointing out that this is just another sing that the U.S. is on the path to being a one party state, one should note that the popularity of Trump shows the total lack of political talent or ability in the Republican Party.
Not one of the other Republican candidates has the talent and ability to take on Trump and improve their standing. Trump is winning on issues such as immigration because none of the other Republicans is capable or articulate enough to deal with the issue without sounding like a blatant panderer.
@James P:
You’re so dumb I doubt you realize all your up-votes are from people who think that was me spoofing you. Your screed was so astoundingly dumb people read it as a troll trolling a troll for laughs. Tell us again about your various advanced degrees.
@superdestroyer: The popularity of Trump is due to his saying
what the people have been thinking. The other politicians are worried that they might offend someone.
@Hal_10000: “Repeat after me: polls mean nothing. Polls taken 16 months before an election mean nothing. Poll of unconstrained pluralities *never* mean anything. Call me February when some of the egos have dropped out.”
Says the Republican… already panic-stricken that the rest of his party has gone mad and is dooming this country to a Democratic super-majority.
I guess it really sucks to be you about now…
@michael reynolds: Oh, Michael. Don’t ruin the fun!
@Jenos Idanian #13: Shorter Jenos: “I agree with Trump. The fact that one Mexican in the country illegally killed someone proves they’re all rapists and murderers. I am not a racist.”
@Ben Wolf: “It’s refreshing to hear someone say whatever happens to be on his mind no matter how offensive it is. I”
Sure, a breath of fresh air… unless you’ve turned on the radio in the last three decades and heard any one of the thousands of right-wing creeps “say whatever happens to be on his/her mind no matter how offensive it is.”
At this stage there is a lot of self-selection in polling. When asked who they think should win an election still more than a year away a significant proportion of the more intelligent people hang up.
I’m shocked that any major businessman like this holds such ignorant and bigoted views. Many thousands of his paying customers over the years had no idea of the dehumanizing sentiments he actually harbored about them…
michael reynolds It is sometimes hard to tell which is which. I think you are both doing the same thing. You are just more open about it. JP doesn’t let the mask fall.
@wr: Any resemblance to what you said and what I said (or believe) is purely coincidental. You really are that stupid, aren’t you?
It’s time that these so-called “sanctuary cities” need to be reminded that The Law Is The Law, and they can’t just decide that immigration laws don’t apply within their borders. The murderer of Ms. Steinle had been deported five times, had a lengthy criminal record, went to San Francisco explicitly because it was a “Sanctuary city.” He was re-arrested, but the local authorities refused to turn over to ICE a man they knew to be an illegal alien with a lengthy criminal record and five separate deportations on his record. So they let the guy go, and he somehow got his hands on a gun and killed an innocent woman.
There’s a proposal to strip any federal funding for law enforcement in any city that declares itself a “Sanctuary City.” I think that would be a damned good start.
@Tyrell:
You’re not wrong – but “what the people have been thinking” is vile. That’s why the other Republican politicians don’t say it outright, even if they are thinking it.
@Paul Hooson:
Really? The birther thing wasn’t a clue?
@Jenos Idanian #13: Shorter Jenos: “I not only hate anyone darker than me, I hate everyone who doesn’t. But in my next post I’ll say “raaaaaacist,” and that will make everyone realize how smart I am. Because I am a genius, which is why I’m eating Captain Crunch in my footie pajamas while other people bother having lives.”
@wr:
1) Not a Republican. If I were a Republican, I would not be panicking or encouraged either way. The Donald Trump clown show will close eventually. And in a year, it won’t matter.
2) Yeah, you keep hoping for that Democratic supermajority. It’s going to happen any day now. Just like that Permanent Democratic Majority. And the Permanent Republican Majority before that.
stonetools citing Begala:
No one has said it better than this. Trump is proof that God loves Democrats. Also, that She has a sense of humor.
@James P: Hey James don’t bogart that joint my friend, pass it over to me.
Because you are clearly holding out on some great stash there.
(Ah I guess you would have to have toked through the 70s to get this one.)
Try this: Jimbo you’re high. On Trump’s fumes.
@Jenos Idanian #13: Jenos you doof. That murderer didn’t go to San Francisco because it was a sanctuary city. He was in federal custody and they SENT him to San Francisco on a 20 year old bullshit charge. Why didn’t they just hold him in custody and turn him right over to ICE? Who knows. But this was a huge clusterfuck by the Bureau of Prisons, something known to ICE because they rushed to ask SF to put a hold on a guy they could have just picked up at the Federal prison door the day before.
If the Feds had a good reason to hold/deport him why the fuck did they release him to SF to start with? There is an untold story here and people are just trying to dump it on SF and ‘sanctuary city’ when there is a lot more to it.
@Jenos Idanian #13:
Watching a toad-boy like you dance on this woman’s grave is truly repulsive.
The post liked to a The Hill article and quotes it as saying: “:The vast majority of respondents — 29 percent — said they believed Jeb Bush would ultimately claim the GOP presidential nomination”
29% == vast majority?! Good journamalism, The Hill.
@wr: Talk radio dudes act with intent; they’re selling something to a particular audience and tailoring their message to maximize the return on gold or mattresses or whatever else their shows exist to hawk. They may be in error a la Sandra Fluke but that’s a matter of miscalculation. Trump just talks.
With him it’s a kind of “innocent” bigotry free of desire for gain. To the contrary his speech is clearly generating negative impacts for his business interests.
@Ben Wolf: Which is why one wonders: with Trump’s demonstrated cluelessness, how did he get a reputation as a big business guru?
Of course, this IS the guy who has had his businesses go bankrupt four times….
(How do you go bankrupt running a casino?)
Trump’s comments are not “racist” or hatred. I hear that all the time. For one thing, Mexican is not a race. And Trump is not talking about the Mexican citizens who obey the law (which also includes immigration laws). He is talking only about the Mexican criminals who sneak in here to prey on innocent people, which includes a lot of their women and girls. The people and law enforcement agencies in the southwest see this all the time. Trump is coming out and repeating what they have been trying to tell the people in Washington.
It is not about hatred or some sort of racism. It is not hatred to oppose criminals and their vicious activities.
@Tyrell: you really believe that. wow.
The old James P didn’t let his mask slip. This new James P lets his mask slip all the time. Call me crazy, but the old James P didn’t fantasize in the comments about Jesus’ uncut, 8′ dingus. That is what we pros call a “tell.”
@grumpy realist:
I think being the son of a very successful & wealthy man had a lot to do with it. Fred Trump was the dynamic businessman that Donald pretends to be.
@Tyrell:
Reality? Meet Tyrell. Tyrell? Meet… Tyrell? Tyrellllll….. Anybody there?
I love that Trump is the leading R candidate.
I hate that Trump is the leading R candidate.
He makes JEB! look sane and normal and unscary. The guy that has rounded up all of Dubya’s foreign policy team as the go-to guys when it comes to advice on to how to deal with the Middle East is now the “serious” Republican.
@Tyrell:
If liberals say it, it is obviously untrue. It’s an ipso facto sort of a thing.
Whoever this new and improved James P. is…the crazy is strong. I mean….President Trump is just gonna take Iraq and Irans oil? Suhweeeeet.
@Tyrell:
You could not be more adorable. Seriously. No fooling.
Trump is going to have a rally with Joe Arpaio this weekend. It’s important ,because the the nativist “establishment” which Arpaio represents is kinda like JEnos: they know that he is using them as publicity fodder, but they can’t stop themselves from salivating once someone starts talking about Mexican racists carrying disease. This gives Trump legitimacy, and grassroot support and more leg. Carry on!
@de stijl:
There are 2 James P’s now: the old one, and a new one, who makes fun of him.
@de stijl:
I misspoke.
“Uncut” should be “cut.”
Jesus was Jewish, duh.
@grumpy realist:
The problem with this statement is that his “reputation” is not among people who actually know anything about finance, but among people who don’t..
Oops, it took me this long to notice that I said exactly what gVOR08 had already said, much earlier. Sorry about that. Great minds think alike. That’s what I get for following my normal MO: showing up late and skipping the comments with small numbers.
@de stijl: “He makes JEB! look sane and normal and unscary”
Sure… untl Jeb! opens his mouth again. “To grow the economy, people need to work more hours.”
And he’s the smart one.
Also, 8′ should be 8″.
Even for a deity / human hybrid, an eight foot dingus would be extraordinary. We’re not Hindus, for Odin’s sake.
To restate:
Call me crazy, but the old James P didn’t fantasize in the comments about Jesus’ cut, 8″ dingus.
Final answer, Regis.
@de stijl: “I misspoke.”
Also, I think you meant 8″, not 8′ — unless you’re saying Jesus was even more remarkable than even the most devout believe.
For further explanation, see this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pyh1Va_mYWI
@wr:
“To grow the economy, people need to work more hours.”
It makes sense if you don’t think too hard.
Plus, neo-Calvinism. Who doesn’t love neo-Calvinism?
@wr:
Hah! Beat you to it by five minutes!
@de stijl: I saw that after I posted… but at least I put up the Spinal Tap clip!
@de stijl: IIRC, James P said 8′ in the original. Also, didn’t he actually say 8′ foreskin, which implies… (Too lazy to dig back and check.)
@wr:
Did you notice that someone nymed @Turgid Jacobian piped up earlier in the thread?
Sometimes life is serendipitous.
If @Tumescent Calculus Guy shows up, I’ll totally plotz.
@gVOR08:
…a mohel who was totally slacking off during the bris?
@gVOR08:
Found it. It was in the “Kentucky Clerk Sued For Refusing To Issue Licenses For Same-Sex Marriages” thread from 7/6.
Someone calling themselves “James P” (hello, smicheal breynolds – my pet theory, totally not proven) said:
That’s a lot of foreskin.
de stijl there might be two James Ps now (3 if you count Pierce). It can be difficult to tell them apart at times since the buffoonery is so similar. They’re both (intentional I think) satire of right wing fever swamp drivel, but one is a satire of the satire and the other is a solid Poe.
de stijl
He copped to it somewhere but I can’t be fussed to look back through the threads and find it.