Despite A Storm Of Negative Coverage, Donald Trump Keeps Rising In The Polls

Donald Trump has gotten almost nothing but negative press since entering the race for President, but it doesn't seem to be hurting him very much just yet.

Trump Announcement

Today, Macy’s joined NBC and Univision in ending its business relationship with Donald Trump over his comments about Mexican immigrants during his Presidential announcement more than two weeks ago, but Donald Trump doesn’t seem to care. In addition to filing a lawsuit against Univision for $500 million, and threatening to do the same against NBC over their termination of his contracts, Trump continues to find himself advancing in the polls notwithstanding what can only be described as incredibly negative coverage from the press across the board.

First up, there the new CNN poll which has Trump in second place nationally behind Jeb Bush:

With nearly all of the expected 2016 presidential candidates formally in the race, a new CNN/ORC national poll finds two recent entrants to the GOP field on the rise, while Hillary Clinton maintains her position atop the Democratic field, though holding a slightly slimmer lead.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and businessman Donald Trump top the list of GOP presidential contenders following their back-to-back campaign launches in mid-June, and are the only two Republican candidates holding double-digit support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

For his part, Trump specifically responded to the poll results Wednesday afternoon saying the numbers are “representative of the response we are receiving from all over the country.”

“I am committed to addressing the issues our country is facing and am confident my business mindset and common sense solutions are resonating with the American people,” Trump said in a statement Wednesday afternoon. “Politicians are all talk and no action and the American public is ready for a leader with a proven track record of success.”

(…)

Bush stands at 19%, up from 13% in May — and his best showing in CNN/ORC polling since December. Trump follows at 12%, up from 3% before his announcement. Former Arkansas Gov.Mike Huckabee (8%), neurosurgeon Ben Carson (7%) and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (7%) round out the top five.

Notably absent from this top five — though statistically speaking not far behind — are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (6%, down from 14% in May) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (6%, down slightly from 10%). Both had been top five candidates in each of the last two CNN/ORC polls, and Walker had been in the top five since February.

The poll, conducted just before New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie formally launched his campaign with a rally in Livingston, New Jersey, on Tuesday, also finds that Christie begins his push for the presidency with just 3% support.

On the state level, Trump has moved into second place in Iowa behind Scott Walker:

A new poll out Wednesday shows Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leading the GOP caucuses in neighboring Iowa — but with a slight decrease in support that suggests the first presidential nominating contest on the 2016 calendar remains wide open.

Walker, who is expected to make Iowa the centerpiece of his early campaign efforts after he officially joins the presidential field on July 13, has the support of 18 percent of likely GOP caucus participants, according to the Quinnipiac Universitypoll.

That puts him ahead of a crowded Republican field, though his support is slipping. The decrease from the previous poll — Walker was at 21 percent two months ago — is not statistically significant. But his decline is more pronounced from a Quinnipiac poll in February of this year, in which Walker led the next-closest competitor with a quarter of the vote.

The candidates finishing behind Walker are tightly bunched together: First-time candidates Ben Carson and Donald Trump tie for second place, with 10 percent of the vote. Just 1 point behind are Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rand Paul (Ky.). Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is at 8 percent, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is at 7 percent.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses, is at 5 percent, followed closely at 4 percent by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who won the 2012 caucuses. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is at 3 percent, joined by Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who entered the race last week, while the poll was in the field.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is expected to enter the race on July 21, is at 2 percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie declared his candidacy on Tuesday, and he earns just 1 percent of the vote (the poll was conducted entirely before his announcement). South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is also at 1 percent. Former New York Gov. George Pataki was offered to the 666 likely caucus-goers who responded to the poll as an option, but he drew no support.

And, finally, a new Public Policy Polling survey of Michigan puts Trump near the top with a group of other candidates:

PPP’s newest Michigan poll finds a four way cluster at the top of the Republican field- Scott Walker’s at 15%, with Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, and Donald Trump all right behind at 14%. Marco Rubio at 9%, Mike Huckabee at 8%, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz at 5%, and Rand Paul at 4% also all make the top 9. Rounding out the field are Carly Fiorina and John Kasich at 3%, Rick Santorum at 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Perry at 1%, and Bobby Jindal and George Pataki with less than 1%.

It’s interesting to note that Trump is in the top tier despite having an underwater favorability rating at 41/44. What he has going for him is that much more so than for most of the rest of the field, the people who do like him also say he’s their first choice for the nomination.

These three polls come on  the heals of a national poll that showed Trump in second place behind Jeb Bush, and a New Hampshire poll that showed the same thing, and they are coming out at the same time that Trump is getting what can only be described as rather negative press from the political media, the cable networks, and the blogosphere. Even most of the hosts of Fox News Channel aren’t defending him. If nothing else, I suppose that this proves that those two earlier polls were not flukes and that Trump is likely to be around for some time to come. Leaving the jokes, and the possibility that people are just messing with pollsters, behind I suppose it’s somewhat understandable why Trump is doing so well in the polls right now. First of all, this is a man who very well known before getting into the Presidential race, and as strange as it may seem there are apparently some people out there who consider themselves his fans. A second factor that ‘s probably working to his his benefit is the fact that the populist rhetoric we’re hearing from him on issues like immigration and trade does have a constituency in this country, and when combined with the general frustration with Washington that has been reflected in polling for the better part of a decade, it’s perhaps not surprising that there’d be a group of people who might be attracted to him as a candidate even for a short period of time. Finally, the fact that the Republican field is so crowded right now, and that there really isn’t anyone who can considered a frontrunner, means that it doesn’t take much for someone like Trump to get enough support to end up in second place either on his own or as part of group. Given all this, the fact that he has some of the highest disapproval numbers of any candidate who has run in recent times, never mind any candidate currently in the field, doesn’t really matter very much at the moment.

The question, of course, is how long this Trump boomlet can actually last. Four years ago, for example, we saw him jump to the top of the polls without even getting in the race based largely on the coverage he was getting for his insane birther rants only to see those numbers drop off rather quickly when it became apparent that his entire exercise was a public relations stunt for the next season of Celebrity Apprentice. Later in that process, we saw Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingirch also rise to the lead in the polls only to see each of them fall away under scrutiny. By the time the voting had started, Mitt Romney was securely at the top and ended up winning the nomination. It’s logical to assume that the same thing is likely to happen this time around, and that we’re just seeing the beginning, or perhaps even the peak, of the Trump Boomlet for this election cycle.

Even if that’s true, though, this cycle is going to last long enough to allow Trump to gain access to the early debates that start in just over a month from now, while candidates that arguably ought to be heard from get excluded because they aren’t in the top ten out of sixteen declared candidates. As I said when he entered the race, Donald Trump in the debates is going to be a force of nature that neither the moderators nor the candidates are going to be able to control. It’s possible, indeed highly probable, that he will do or say something that will turn people off enough that he’ll fade away quickly. It’s also possible, that he’ll hit a populist nerve that will push him higher in the polls even just temporarily Whichever way it goes, he will likely be the main thing that everyone is talking about after the debates, and that’s going to be bad news for a lot of the candidates hoping that the debates would help them rise in the polls before it starts becoming time to trim the fat in the GOP field.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010. Before joining OTB, he wrote at Below The BeltwayThe Liberty Papers, and United Liberty Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. grumpy realist says:

    (Cutting and pasting from the earlier thread because I don’t think anyone saw it:)

    Ok–here’s my tin-foil hat on: Trump is running for POTUS to totally disrupt the Republican field, help vote his good friend Hillary Clinton into power, then will be appointed Ambassador to Russia so he can go visit Moscow and say “You’re fired!” to Putin, which is the biggest dream of his life.

    /tinfoil-hat–>OFF

  2. Moosebreath says:

    Why should he not be high in the polls? Which position he has taken is not at or near the center of gravity among Republican primary voters? He’s a perfect case of dealing with the primary voters you have, rather than the ones you want.

  3. Ron Beasley says:

    A P.T. Barnum there’s a” foll born every moment” event.

  4. C. Clavin says:

    So much for the Republican efforts at Hispanic out-reach.

    But you have people coming in and I’m not just saying Mexicans, I’m talking about people that are from all over that are killers and rapists and they’re coming into this country.”

  5. OzarkHillbilly says:

    While he is heading fast for a fifth bankruptcy having single tongued several of his business relationships to a premature death, it is not surprising in the least that he has new found popularity in the Troglodyte Republican Party (my bad). White supremacists are rallying their troops around his flag:

    “I do not believe he would solve all or even most of the problems we are facing, but he is absolutely the only candidate who is even talking about anything at all that matters,” gushed Andrew Anglin, blogger for the neo-Nazi site The Daily Stormer. Trump is “willing to call them out as criminal rapists, murderers and drug dealers.”

    ….

    Trump also has the support of white supremacist Kyle Rogers, who is a member of Council of Conservative Citizens, the group credited by Charleston church shooter Dylann Roof for radicalizing him.
    ….
    a screenshot shows Rogers hawking “Donald Trump 2016″ tee shirts to his nearly-40,000 Twitter followers the day before.

    White supremacist and nationalist group “White History Month” showed their admiration for Trump, posting a link to a story lauding him for “refusing to back down.” The group regularly posts about supporting the Klan and wanting to create a separatist white society.

    You lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

  6. J-Dub says:

    Trump is just regurgitating the same garbage that Fox News has been spoon-feeding its viewers for years. Why would anyone be surprised that they are latching onto his populist message?

    Although “populist” is being generous. It’s more racist than anything. He’s going to subjugate those Mexicans/Asians/Arabs/Persions when he becomes elected! Has he railed against any white cultures?

  7. michael reynolds says:

    Gotta love it. If I’m Walker I’m worried. He has no momentum. Ditto Rubio who is stalled.

    It’s the Clowns and the Non-Clown, with Trump clearly holding the lead in the Clown category.

    If I’m Bush, I’m feeling not great but okay, because I seem to be the default Non-Clown candidate. But the support of just one of of 5 Republicans is not wonderful for someone with 100% name recognition and piles of cash.

    What Jeb needs to do is endure without making some catastrophic mistake, and he has to show movement in the polls. Walker and Rubio need to put some kind of hurt on him, especially Rubio who cannot hope for a Veep spot with Jeb. I don’t know what they can throw at him, honestly, aside from the Bush name and accusations of moderation.

    The other question though is how much appearing on the stage with Trump, Huckabee, Carson, Cruz, Santorum and Jindal damages Jeb’s stature. How far can they push him to the right? Can they get him to back an anti-gay Constitutional amendment? Can they get him to swear he’ll repeal all of Obamacare on his first day? And how much does the slime of creepy losers rub off on him?

    And what if by say, the third debate, Jeb still isn’t breaking 30%? If you leave a product on the shelf too long it gets discounted. If the country sees the GOP can’t quite decide to back Jeb, that sends a message that we’re dealing with damaged goods.

    Meanwhile Hillary outpolls every Republican by 10 or more points.

  8. J-Dub says:

    Rubio who cannot hope for a Veep spot with Jeb

    There’s always Ambassador to Cuba.

  9. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @J-Dub: Obama should offer it to him.

  10. J-Dub says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: I was thinking that earlier. Does he have to offer it to him or can he just nominate him anyway?

  11. Mu says:

    Has Trump filed the paperwork and the financial disclosures by now? I think his 3.5B brand value will need reevaluation.
    I just wonder how many establishment Republicans try getting themselves to sleep every night with a “the clowns can’t win, the clowns can’t win” mantra, before they grab the whiskey bottle around midnight.

  12. David M says:

    Serious question. Why do GOP primary votes respond to ridiculous candidates in ways the Democratic voters do not?

  13. Tillman says:

    @David M: Quick answer — different definitions of what counts as being worthy of ridicule.

    Quicker answer — political and generational decadence.

    It’s worth keeping in mind that the rats who would’ve jumped ship have already done so after the debt ceiling fiascoes of 2011 and ’13. The Republican party has already suffered the exodus of people who want to maintain the veneer of respectable politics.

  14. CSK says:

    The “base” is split between whether they’re going to vote for Trump, Cruz, Carson, or split and form a third party headed by Palin and Cruz. The only point of agreement is that they refuse to vote for Jeb Bush, aka Satan Incarnate.

    I don’t think Hillary has to worry much.

  15. Mr. Prosser says:

    @michael reynolds: “If I’m Walker I’m worried. He has no momentum.” Yeah, what’s with him? Is he playing some game of waiting for the clown cavalcade to reach a critical mass and implode and he steps in or what?

  16. EddieInCA says:

    This is all very good news for John McCain.

  17. michael reynolds says:

    @Mr. Prosser:

    I’m surprised. I thought both Walker and Rubio would have more juice.

  18. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    Despite A Storm Of Negative Coverage, Donald Trump Keeps Rising In The Polls

    Sheesh, Doug. The people Trump’s appealing to see that as a plus.

    And I can’t blame them. Everyone knows that the media (the source of that “negative coverage” is securely in the Democrats’ pocket. (Just some are still too heavily invested in the myth to keep denying it.) There’s a certain element that sees the relentless attacks and says “if they’re that scared of him. there must be something good about him.” There’s also a certain element that just flat-out lies to pollsters, for several reasons.

    Like I said on the earlier Trump thread, I think he’s a fraud and would never vote for him. But for now, he’s a useful fraud. For example, he got Univision to roll over and beg for his forgiveness before he even filed his lawsuit, and that’s for half a billion dollars. And I don’t think he has either the temperament or the financial needs to take any “go-away” settlement offers. This one’s going to get ugly, and I find the thought of an ugly fight between Trump and Univision tremendously entertaining.

  19. wr says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: “There’s a certain element that sees the relentless attacks and says “if they’re that scared of him. there must be something good about him.””

    Yes, there are truly stupid people out there, thanks for reminding us.

    And I love the idea that liberals are scared of Trump. It’s like when idiot troll Smooth Jazz used to yap on about how Sarah Palin terrified the left everytime she said something so stupid the world was laughing at her.

  20. al-Ameda says:

    There really is nothing appealing about Trump at all. Some people love his schtick – it appears that they like to hear an alleged billionaire who has bankrupted a casino operation speak his mind.

    That said, I have to admit, if I was called by a pollster and asked about Trump, I would definitely rave him up. I want Trump in it for the long run. The entertainment value is tremendous.

  21. David M says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13:

    This one’s going to get ugly, and I find the thought of an ugly fight between Trump and Univision tremendously entertaining.

    I can understand why Trump is there, but not Univision. Well actually, I guess there is one reason a Republican would include Univision…

  22. wr says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: “For example, he got Univision to roll over and beg for his forgiveness before he even filed his lawsuit, and that’s for half a billion dollars. ”

    This, apparently, is what little Jenos calls rolling over and begging forgiveness:

    “We just reviewed Mr. Trump’s complaint for the first time, and it is both factually false and legally ridiculous. We will not only vigorously defend the case, but will continue to fight against Mr. Trump’s ongoing efforts to run away from the derogatory comments he made on June 16th about Mexican immigrants. Our decision to end our business relationship with Mr. Trump was influenced solely by our responsibility to speak up for the community we serve.”

    Maybe little Jenos should stop mistaking Trump press releases for fact…

  23. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @wr: Yes, there are truly stupid people out there, thanks for reminding us.

    Hell, you didn’t need me to remind folks of that. You do that every time you open your mouth.

    Trump holds zero appeal to me. Actually, that’s untrue — he has negative appeal to me. But it would take an idiot or a dishonest person (or, in your case, both) to deny that he has appeal to a certain number of people.

    And his campaign, thus far, has been remarkably entertaining and useful. He draws out the left’s worst aspects, and they attack him in the most self-destructive fashion. For that alone, I want him to stay in the campaign a bit longer.

  24. michael reynolds says:

    @David M:

    Serious question. Why do GOP primary votes respond to ridiculous candidates in ways the Democratic voters do not?

    Democrats are fundamentally secular in outlook. I don’t mean atheist or even agnostic, many on our team are quite religious. I mean that we remain relatively evidence-based, real world. We still like 2 + 2 to equal 4.

    Republicans are increasingly religious in outlook. Ronald Reagan is treated as a saint, not a mere man. Every issue is cast in the most extreme terms, often as a contest of good and evil. People who disconnect from reality look for a candidate equally unhinged. Voila: Trump!

    You’ve got followers of the more primitive iterations of Christianity forming the base of the party, the Jesus wing. The Money wing is repped by Jeb, Walker and Rubio. The dwindling Bombs wing is repped by Graham. But Money and Bombs have made a bad bet teaming up with the Jesus wing because now the Jesus wing has them all wrapped up in the Confederate flag and gay bashing – themes that will be disastrous in the general election if they are still alive as issues by then.

    One of many fun questions in this election is whether Huckabee might try to take the Jesus wing independent. How many times can the Jesus wing be betrayed by Money and Bombs before they recognize that they’re in an abusive relationship with people who secretly despise them? The far right, Christian rage-o-holic wing of the GOP is no longer even slightly compatible with Money because Money wants absolutely nothing to do with issues like abortion, prayer in schools, brushfire battles over book banning, the eternal hatred of gays. . . None of that puts a dollar in a Wall Street banker’s secret account.

    There’s this big, rapidly-aging, out-of-touch, rage-fueled, fearful constituency out there, maybe 10% of the total vote. Are they going to sit by passively and be ignored by Jeb and Rubio once it’s clear none of the clowns can win the nomination? I mean, they’re dumb, but even they must know that eight years of Jeb will be no better for their core issues than eight years of Hillary.

    They have a capable demagogue in Huckabee. They won’t need much money, just a random billionaire plus some of the money their supporters normally spend eating at Cracker Barrel. They could go rogue. Huckabee-Palin 2016.

    Oh that would be so very, very. . . ahem, sorry. I was getting a little farklempt.

  25. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @wr: Dude, it’s clear that you either 1) don’t actually read for comprehension or 2) think you can lie that blatantly, but what I said was that Univision apologized before Trump filed his lawsuit. How in that pathetic malignant tumor you call a brain can Univsion’s comments on the text of the lawsuit possibly be relevant to how the acted before they saw it?

    And yeah, Univision had their anchor apologize BEFORE he filed the lawsuit. Here’s proof.

    And I see that you’re at once saying I’m just mindlessly parroting Trump’s press releases while, in the same comment, mindlessly parroting Univision’s press release. Yeah, that really puts me in my place.

    And I repeat: Trump’s a fraud, but he’s a useful fraud for now. He draws out the left’s worst aspects, and they attack him in the most self-destructive fashion.

    As you so entertainingly demonstrated.

  26. michael reynolds says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13:

    You just proved that Univision apologized for a specific statement comparing Trump to Dylann Roof.

    You can’t really be dumb enough not to see that’s a minor side issue. Trump’s shows remain off Univision’s air. He remains fired from NBC and Macy’s.

    Now Trump’s pushing the idea that Univision shouldn’t host a Republican debate, an idea that I can guarantee you Jeb and Rubio do not want to see happen.

  27. michael reynolds says:

    The great thing about Trump is that he draws focus. Any person placed in a room with Trump disappears when a TV camera shows up. Trump, Trump, Trump. How is boring Jeb going to compete for air time with the Clown In Chief?

    This is getting so good.

  28. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @michael reynolds: You can’t really be dumb enough not to see that’s a minor side issue. Trump’s shows remain off Univision’s air. He remains fired from NBC and Macy’s.

    Trump is suing Univision. NBC is saying that having serial tax cheat and race hustler Al Sharpton, and serial fabricator Brian Williams, as part of their news division is just fine, but it’s morally offensive to have Trump working for their entertainment division. Trump’s antics help bring that ind of hypocrisy front and center.

    It seems that we both find Trump’s antics entertaining, and want them to continue. You want to laugh at him and see him embarrass the other Republican candidates. I want to laugh at him and see him continue to humiliate the left, plus seeing how the other GOP candidates deal with him is a good test for them.

    And Doug loves him the clickbait, so he’s rooting for it, too.

  29. michael reynolds says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13:

    Where and how do you imagine Trump “humiliated” the left? The left would finance his campaign. We love him like we loved Palin. We love it when the mask comes off a Republican.

    You don’t get it. Who fired who, Jenos? Trump was treated like an employee by NBC and like a tainted meat supplier by Univision. Take that message down to its most basic and Donald Trump was just fired by Mexicans. Latinos cracked the whip and the Donald’s got a stripe on his ass. And every serious GOP candidate now has to figure out how to avoid commenting, because there is no safe answer to, “What do you think of Trump being fired?”

    That’s the guy your party loves. And we were humiliated?

    Riiight.

  30. David M says:

    The only one that’s been humiliated during this is Trump. And the idea that Univision and NBC Entertainment are “the left” is just laughable. That’s pathetic even for an OTB troll.

  31. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @michael reynolds: The left would finance his campaign.

    That would be fair enough. Trump’s financed enough of theirs.

    Like I keep saying… he’s a fraud, but for now he’s a useful one.

  32. James Pearce says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13:

    he’s a fraud, but for now he’s a useful one.

    Useful to who? Democrats?

    This is what’s so sad about the right these days: The low expectations.

    I mean, this is not a TV show. This is not mere entertainment. This is an election, with real power at stake. Would it be too much to act accordingly?

  33. MBunge says:

    @David M: Serious question. Why do GOP primary votes respond to ridiculous candidates in ways the Democratic voters do not?

    Conservative true believers have a herd or follow the leader mentality that makes it easy to rally around “charismatic” figures. Liberal true believers, however, love to think of themselves as the smartest, purest and most liberal person on the room, which means they love to find fault with supposed leaders.

    Mike

  34. Tyrell says:

    This scrap that Trump had with NBC has probably helped his popularity. Any one will come out looking good compared to NBC, a once great and respected news organization. David Brinkley would be shocked at how bad things are.
    NBC should get out of the news programming altogether and focus on entertainment and sports. Their financial branch, CNBC isn’t bad.

  35. An Interested Party says:

    There’s a certain element that sees the relentless attacks and says “if they’re that scared of him. there must be something good about him.”

    You’re confused…much like with Sarah Palin, no one is scared of Trump…rather, they’re simply pointing at him and laughing…

  36. Argon says:

    With Trump on the scene, it gets even harder for Christie. They’ve got the same shtick but Trump takes it to 11.

  37. wr says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: “Trump holds zero appeal to me. ”

    Sure — just like you never cared about Zimmerman. You were just a crusader for even handedness in blog posting.

    Quick, name all the people you’re fooling — I count Pinky, and that’s about it.

  38. EddieInCA says:

    There’s a certain element that sees the relentless attacks and says “if they’re that scared of him. there must be something good about him.”

    I call that certain element “Idiot.”

    “Moron” works too.

    So does “Sh*t for Brains”.

    The only people afraid of The Donald are on the GOP side of the ledger.

  39. wr says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: “And yeah, Univision had their anchor apologize BEFORE he filed the lawsuit. Here’s proof.”

    Hey stupid,

    I read your link. Univision apologized because one of their people said something really stupid and egregious, comparing Trump to your newest martyr to political correctness, Dylann Roof. Trump is out running around saying Univision is begging him to call off the lawsuit and apologizing for dumping his ass from their network, when in fact they acted like actual human beings and apologized when they were wrong.

    Oh, and before you start, if you’re going to claim that Trump dumped Macy’s you’re even dumber than I thought — which is more mind-bogglling than string theory.

  40. wr says:

    @Tyrell: “This scrap that Trump had with NBC has probably helped his popularity. Any one will come out looking good compared to NBC, a once great and respected news organization.”

    I like you, Tyrrell, and try to ignore you when you insist on playing the complete idiot. But Donald Trump wasn’t fired as a truth-teller. He was fired as a game show host. He was fired as the host of the single most embarassing show on reality television, the Celebrity Apprentice.

    And everyone with an IQ above 6 knows this has nothing to do with NBC news — even if that network no longer spends all its time fellating St. Ronnie…

  41. Grumpy Realist says:

    And Mexico yanked their contestant from Miss Universe.

    Trump seems to have REALLY pissed them off. Not good if you have to get a certain percentage of Hispanics voting for you. The way this continues, the only people who might possibly vote for the Republican candidate are going to be the old Miami geezers dreaming of Cuba and of recovering their plantations. (The young-uns don’t. They say:”No way do I want to move to Cuba–have you seen the size of those damn SPIDERS?!!”)

  42. David M says:

    I’m also a little confused as to how a Republican presidential candidate trolling the country does anything but make Republicans look bad.

  43. Tillman says:

    @Grumpy Realist:

    Trump seems to have REALLY pissed them off.

    To be fair, he did call them all rapists. And then he dug in on it.

    Am I dreaming? Step back for a second, people. We’re commenting on a post about how a guy who called an entire ethnicity rape-happy is experiencing some sort of surge in support. I want to settle on the mundane explanation here and conclude Donald Trump is just some sort of mastermind performance artist mocking the American media-industrial complex to demonstrate its deleterious effects on lowercase R republicanism. Like, that’s the only plausible thing going on, so absurd is this situation. But I’ve left the mundane and am starting to question the metaphysical fabric of reality. Are we sure we’re not in a shitty Christopher Buckley satire right now? Is there a test for that?

  44. CB says:

    @Tillman:

    Well, to be fair, he didn’t call them ALL rapists. Just most of them.

  45. JohnMcC says:

    Two quick points before I hit the sack: First to our friend IndianaJones — this is how scared this particular Florida Democrat is of the Donald. The very day he files his financial disclosures I am going to drive the ol’ F-150 across crowded Pinellas County to the election commissioner’s office and change my registration to Republican for the sole purpose of voting for him in the primary. Terrified!

    Second, a self assigned task (like scooping the cat litter) I have is reading one RWNJ blog daily. Today (yesterday, I s’pose) it was Townhall-dot-com. I read the headline articles, google a bit to check figures, statistics and quotes and then read the comments. One thing I’ve learned over the past week or so is that Donald has some very serious fanbois. They think he’s saying serious and necessary truths and they hate them some JEB!. Mr Trump is not going away until he decides to go away. He won’t win the nomination but everybody on the R-side debate stage better figure out what to do about him.

  46. humanoid.panda says:

    @EddieInCA:

    If I’m Walker I’m worried. He has no momentum.” Yeah, what’s with him? Is he playing some game of waiting for the clown cavalcade to reach a critical mass and implode and he steps in or what?

    The thing about Walker is that he is a product the very unique politics of Wisconsin. Basically, he grew up in the suburbs of Milwaukee- the most republican/evangelica suburban area outside the South. Then, he won a governorship in 2010- a wave year, on the power of local talk show radio mobilizing every last GOP voter in the suburbs, ran against a lackluster guy in the recall election (that many goo-goo Democrats sat out because unfair), and won reelection in GOP wave year. He is simply vastly,vastly, overrated as a politician.

    Like seriously- if he ever runs for Senate in a presidential year, he is a lock to lose by 10 points.

  47. humanoid.panda says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13:

    And his campaign, thus far, has been remarkably entertaining and useful. He draws out the left’s worst aspects, and they attack him in the most self-destructive fashion. For that alone, I want him to stay in the campaign a bit longer.

    Yes! Nothing is quite as ruinous for the Left as a guy screaming about murderous Mexican rapists in the Republican debates! Please, spare us that!

  48. humanoid.panda says:

    @MBunge:

    Conservative true believers have a herd or follow the leader mentality that makes it easy to rally around “charismatic” figures. Liberal true believers, however, love to think of themselves as the smartest, purest and most liberal person on the room, which means they love to find fault with supposed leaders.

    Eh. I have plenty a friends a-flutter with Bernie Sanders..

    The real answer is simpler I think: deep down, liberals are scarred by Reagan years, so they think that in order to win they need pristine candidates. The GOP thinks its a natural majority, so it just needs someone to SCREAM LOUDER.

  49. stonetools says:

    @David M: Serious question. Why do GOP primary votes respond to ridiculous candidates in ways the Democratic voters do not?

    My answer to the question is the Balloon Juice meme known as Cleek’s Law:

    today’s conservatism is the opposite of what liberals want today: updated daily

    Donald Trump says stuff that liberals hate, every day. That’s why a lot of the base loves him and supports him. He’s telling it like the base thinks it is, and the base loves him for it. It’s why they liked Chris Christie for a while. Note the “for a while”. Eventually, even the base will wake up and realize he’s a clown.

  50. stonetools says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13:

    I want to laugh at him and see him continue to humiliate the left, plus seeing how the other GOP candidates deal with him is a good test for them.

    Really?

    Hillary Rodham Clinton and other Democrats, meanwhile, are eager to make Trump the face of the Republican Party, which is momentarily leaderless with a disparate presidential field and no clear front-runner.

    “I am a person of faith — and the Donald’s entry into this race can only be attributed to the fact that the good Lord is a Democrat with a sense of humor,” exulted Paul Begala, veteran Democratic strategist and adviser to Priorities USA Action, a super PAC boosting Clinton’s candidacy.

    I truly hope Republicans continue to believe that Donald Trump is good for Republicans and is “humiliating Democrats”.I want them to continue to believe it right until November 2016.We liberals need as big a landslide as we can get.

  51. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    1) When has Trump ever given the slightest sign that he’s capable of feeling humiliated? I really don’t think he’s capable of that feeling.

    2) Trump is pulling a scam here. I can think of several different possibilities, and it could be more than one, but there’s a scam present. So any damage he does to himself is, to me, a feature, not a bug.

    3) The mainstream media and the left (but I repeat myself) are going to go after the GOP candidates full throttle (as they have done in every prior election since…. geez, at least 50 years. Right now, Trump is drawing the most fire, giving some cover to the rest of the field.

    Plus, as Mr. reynolds points out, it’s fine entertainment. Let the games continue!

  52. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: Here’s some friendly advice: Put down the shovel. Stop digging. The hole only gets deeper.

  53. Lenoxus says:

    The real answer is simpler I think: deep down, liberals are scarred by Reagan years, so they think that in order to win they need pristine candidates. The GOP thinks its a natural majority, so it just needs someone to SCREAM LOUDER.

    This sounds most correct. It’s true that both sides will paint themselves as either the representative majority or as the embattled minority, whichever is most convenient for a given context. But conservatives have a tendency for the former and liberals for the latter, kinda.

    For example, the initial unpopularity of Obamacare didn’t take many liberals by surprise; a subconscious presumption by many of them is that Americans generally don’t like change, “socialism”, anything related to Europe, or presidents with funny names. Sort of an “our policies are the vegetables no one wants to eat” thing.

    When conservatives want to claim “embattled” status for themselves, it’s usually by presenting the attackers as some non-representative group — the liberal media, academia, Twitterati — who have disproportionate power and are nothing like the mass of good hard-working Americans (although that group of Americans is always shrinking, being swallowed up into the 47% of moochers). For a long time this fit well with the anti-gay-rights agenda, so it will be very interesting to see what new narratives are concocted to address the mass majority support for same-sex marriage.

    By contrast, there’s always been an element of liberalism that assumes the “default” American — indeed, the default human — comes with a lot of worrisome baggage and is in need of enlightenment. Indeed, this suspicion is applied by liberals to liberals themselves, something conservatives often miss (hence giving conservatives the impression that these sort of liberal attitudes are purely elitism).

    I think all this can easily go one way or the other, rather than being consequences of innate qualities in those ideologies themselves. But it just happens that everyone vaguely agrees that “America” is to be associated mentally with conservative rather than liberal tribal markers. The assumption is so strong that the following paradoxical conversation makes a sort of sense to all involved:

    “I despise the Confederate flag.”

    “Really? Why do you hate America?”

    Okay, actually the whole “America == red states” thing may be a consequence of the ideologies. Liberalism’s cosmopolitanism will always put it at odds with raw populism/patriotism. Furthermore, if the natural tendency is for the country to always shift from conservative to liberal (I doubt it is, but that’s a popular assumption), then liberal victories are likelier to become part of the air we breathe, and the next generation of liberals feels just as tentative as the previous one, rather than pounding its fists in the air. No one thinks “All right, women will always have the vote, the EPA isn’t going to be abolished, social security is basically permanent and Americans don’t want it touched — America is fundamentally liberal, woo-hoo!”

    (As an aside, this is the most fascinating element of politics to me — in one generation of some hypothetical society, you could have, say, pro-civil-rights Communists fighting against pro-segregationist capitalists. In the next one, each side is “accusing” the other of being segregationist or Communist — they’re now slurs rather than legitimate positions, because that’s how decisively the respective battles were won.)

  54. Neil Hudelson says:

    So is Jenos’s plan simply to repeat “Trump is embarrassing the left” enough times that it magically comes true?

    It worked really well for Fast and Furious; he repeated that it was the worst scandal to ever hit a presidency enough times, and look at where we are now–a presidency in tatters.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/01/19/obamas-approval-rating-bump-by-the-numbers/

  55. C. Clavin says:

    REELZ…owned by Hubbard Broadcasting…a generous Republican donor…is picking up Trumps Miss Universe Pageant.
    I’m not sure why the Republican Party is supporting this a$$-hat instead of distancing themselves from him…but I’m not surprised. The idea that Mexicans are all criminals and rapists is pretty mainstream Republican opinion.

  56. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: I’ve said from the outset that his campaign is a fraud, that there’s some scheme behind it. Do you disagree with that?

  57. al-Ameda says:

    @michael reynolds:

    Where and how do you imagine Trump “humiliated” the left? The left would finance his campaign. We love him like we loved Palin. We love it when the mask comes off a Republican.

    Abso-effiing-lutely.
    Palin and Trump – as annoying, unthoughtful, and boorish as they are – they’re god’s way of saying to Democrats, “don’t worry, I’ve got this covered …”

  58. Tillman says:

    @CB: Heh heh, yeah. He only called the ones who might vote in an election here rapists. He didn’t call every Mexican on the planet a rapist, or even every Mexican in El Paso, Texas a rapist. He was just trying to get us to think. 🙂

  59. wr says:

    @CB: “Well, to be fair, he didn’t call them ALL rapists. Just most of them.”

    Yes, in my favorite part of his speech: “And some, I assume, are good people.”

  60. mantis says:

    Trump is humiliating Democrats about as much as Lyndon Larouche humiliates Republicans.

    Of course, the key difference is Democrats ignore Larouche and don’t consider him a real Democratic candidate, while Republicans embrace Trump and may just make him the frontrunner.

  61. Tony W says:
  62. MarkedMan says:

    As much as I would like the Trump sh*tsplosion to be a sign of great things for the Dems I feel it’s more likely just the status quo. As Lee Atwater, Ronald Reagaon’s campaign manager admitted so long ago, the Republicans realized that racists were becoming increasingly uncomfortable in the Democratic Party and decided they would peel them off and take them as a constituency of the Repubs. Fast forward 20-30 years and you have 10-20 of the Republican base that is primarily voting their racist nature. They see Trump as their champion and will vote overwhelmingly for him. Meanwhile another dozen candidates divide up the rest of the votes. When the non-racist (or at least the not so racist candidate) field thins down, 10-20 percent will be small change. Especially when you deduct a significant portion that won’t want to align with a loser. A few weeks after the SuperTuesday primary he will be town to 7-12% and J b will have 30% and be the overwhelming favorite.

  63. jukeboxgrad says:

    Jenos:

    Everyone knows that the media (the source of that “negative coverage” is securely in the Democrats’ pocket.

    National Review, reacting to Trump’s announcement:

    Witless Ape Rides Escalator … [Trump is] a ridiculous buffoon … grunting like a baboon.

    I didn’t realize that National Review was “securely in the Democrats’ pocket.”

    I’ve said from the outset that his campaign is a fraud, that there’s some scheme behind it.

    Now explain how that statement does not apply to most of the other GOP candidates, both this time and last time. They are mostly clowns who could never win, and are merely auditioning for a gig at Fox.

  64. mantis says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13:

    Everyone knows that the media (the source of that “negative coverage” is securely in the Democrats’ pocket.

    Interesting. Trump says that Mexican immigrants are rapists and killers. Mexicans are justifiably and vocally upset by these remarks. Businesses start to cut ties with the man who insulted millions of their customers, not wanting to associate themselves with his disgusting views. The media report on his comments and the reactions. Jenos’s conclusion? It’s a liberal conspiracy! The only reason the media reported his comments and the reactions to them is they are in the pocket of Democrats! Nevermind that right wing media reported on the events as well. Nevermind that Trump is a Republican candidate who is polling quote well. Nevermind that his views are clearly shared by a significant portion of GOP voters. Nevermind that this country has a massive right wing media landscape, controlling the most popular cable news channel, nearly all of political news radio, popular news and blog websites, and major newspapers across the country. Nope, it’s the left and their iron grip on all media in this country (which they used to blame on the Jews but don’t do that as much because their hatred for Muslims is stronger than their hatred for Jews).

    It must be difficult for Republicans, living in such a restrictive state where a single political party controls all information and their views are outlawed. It must be difficult when their beliefs are so badly represented because they are tricked by the manipulative Democrats into supporting racist candidates in their own party. It must be difficult to be forced to donate to those candidates against their will. I do feel sorry for them and hope their time in the reeducation camps is brief. They truly do not deserve all the things they imagine are happening to them.

  65. Tillman says:

    @Lenoxus:

    By contrast, there’s always been an element of liberalism that assumes the “default” American — indeed, the default human — comes with a lot of worrisome baggage and is in need of enlightenment.

    Lately my kick has been ranting on this weird pseudoconservative element popping up in relation to this element: that people who don’t know better should know better by now, what with technology and Internet and popular television sitcoms, and are willfully ignorant otherwise. It’s like the liberal has seen threeish decades of preening conservatism and thinks, “Damn it, it’s my turn.”

    Part of that’s just the swinging of the pendulum in terms of how timid liberal messaging has been lately in the face of that preening, but being timid myself means I’m more comfortable with timidity than the excess I claim others go to.

  66. jukeboxgrad says:

    Link:

    Trump bump stumps clump of grumpy Republican chumps. Will the GOP slump? … So, to sum up: I’m not stumped by Trump’s bump, and the clump of grumpy GOP chumps shouldn’t be either. The big question is whether one of them will jump in to thump Trump, or choose instead to slump in a lump on their plump rumps.

  67. Moosebreath says:

    @jukeboxgrad:

    Drenzer needs to apply for a job with the Dr. Seuss estate.

  68. jukeboxgrad says:

    Yes, good point. Then again, it seems fitting for commentary about Trump to be written at that level.

  69. MBunge says:

    @humanoid.panda: Eh. I have plenty a friends a-flutter with Bernie Sanders..

    And if Bernie actually became President, how long would it take before they started complaining about how Sanders “sold us out?”

    Mike

  70. Tyrell says:

    I will tell you why his popularity is soaring: he is sounding and acting Trumanesque. He is saying things that many people are thinking. The people are seeing major corporations ganging up against him: he is playing the cornered boxer role.
    When it comes down to having to explain what some of his policies would be, that is when he folds.
    “You gotta know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em” (Kenny Rogers)

  71. JKB says:

    And San Francisco reports in with some vindication for Donald Trump. Not rapist mind you, just a career criminal on what for now looks like a spree/thrill killing.

    Plus in hippie paradise, a news team was robbed while reporting on the illegal immigrant thrill killing of the young woman right in front of her father. A second crew’s life broadcast was disrupted by the robbery.

  72. Tyrell says:

    @JKB: The killing in San Francisco was done by an illegal immigrant murderer who had been released five times ! Outrageous ! Someone needs to be held accountable. I expect now that some of the silent Republicans will be more outspoken now that Trump has been proven right and vindicated. Trump is just telling what law enforcement and citizens in the southwest have been saying for years.
    Trump 1, media 0. corporations 0

  73. JKB says:

    @Tyrell:

    The murderer was released in accordance with the “sanctuary” policy of the City and County of San Francisco.

    But that’s not the way the San Francisco County Sheriff’s Legal Counsel Freya Horne sees it. In an interview Friday with NBC Bay Area, she said the city and county of San Francisco are sanctuaries for immigrants, and they do not turn over undocumented people – if they don’t have active warrants out for them – simply because immigration officials want them to.

    Even though the murderer had been flagged by ICE:

    But ICE spokeswoman Virginia Kice told NBC Bay Area on Friday that Sanchez should have been returned to her agency’s custody, because he had a “detainer” on his status in jail.
    He was an “enforcement priority,” Kice said. But Horne said that San Francisco treats these detainers as requests, not mandates.

    But we should admit that Donald Trump spoke inarticulately, imagine that, and should have pointed out the “rape trees” that spring up along the trail of illegal immigrants, where the illegal women immigrants are the victims of the “coyotes”

    Now, a new method of marking territory has crossed over into the United States. “Rape trees” are popping up in Southern Arizona and their significance is horrific. These “rape trees” are places where cartel members and coyotes rape female border crossers and hang their clothes, specifically undergarments, to mark their conquest.

    But that was only reported 6 years ago, but then protesting that “rape culture” doesn’t help the Democratic party’s agenda.