Saturday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. MarkedMan says:

    Baseball season is kicking off for my wife and I today as a half dozen players on the roster are celebrity bartending for a couple of hours at our local brewpub. Now I’ve got to study some team photos as we take in games either in-person from the cheap seats or via radio. The only one I would recognize at the moment would be our amazing closer, Felix Bautista, because he’ll stick out above the crowd (unless one of the new guys is also a 6’ 5”, 195 lb, very dark black guy). Other than that, there are a few who had noticeably long hair last year.

    1
  2. OzarkHillbilly says:

    ‘Out of options … and time’: prosecutors posit motive in puzzling Murdaugh murder saga

    And he just might walk due to amateur hour investigators at the crime scene. Than again, who knows? Maybe he really is innocent (of this crime).

    1
  3. OzarkHillbilly says:
  4. Jax says:

    Apparently the ChatGPT AI refuses to talk about Trump, in some circumstances. Of course, conservatives are calling it censorship. (eyeroll)

    This made me laugh a little, though.

    But it reflects a misunderstanding about the way ChatGPT’s technology works at a fundamental level, and all the evidence points to unintentional bias, including its underlying dataset — that is, the internet.

    ChatGPT is possible because computer scientists figured out how to essentially teach a software program to learn how to turn an incomprehensibly large amount of data into a knowledge base to compose an answer to almost every question.

    But a lot of the text out there on the internet was created by people who are bad at writing, grammar, and spelling. So OpenAI hired people to have conversations with the AI and grade its answers on how good they sounded. They weren’t judging it only on whether it was accurate, or whether it said the right thing. They wanted it to sound like a real person who can string together coherent sentences.

    In other words, conservatives need to get smarter trolls. 😛 😛

    https://www.semafor.com/article/02/03/2023/how-chatgpt-inadvertently-learned-to-avoid-talking-about-trump

    2
  5. James Joyner says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: Technically, it simply overturns a law making it a felony to possess firearms while under a restraining order, which does seem to run up against due process concerns. But, as a common sense measure, it certainly makes sense to strip those folks of gun rights.

    1
  6. MarkedMan says:

    @James Joyner: And the fundamental message is that Republicans will spend any amount of time and effort into ensuring that anyone, no matter their violent behavior or anger management issues, can get as many guns as they want, of any kind. Given power, that’s what they will invest their time and effort in.

    2
  7. CSK says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: @James Joyner: @MarkedMan:

    Speaking of guns, Matjorie Taylor Greene is urging her fans to shoot down the Chinese spy balloon. For someone as pro-personal weaponry as she is, she doesn’t seem to know that a bullet shot from a firearm only travels 10,000 feet, and the balloon is 66,000 feet up there.

    3
  8. Stormy Dragon says:

    @James Joyner:

    Technically, it simply overturns a law making it a felony to possess firearms while under a restraining order, which does seem to run up against due process concerns.

    How does it run up against due process concerns any more than any of the other restrictions restraining orders create?

    3
  9. gVOR08 says:

    @CSK: The inability of Montanans to shoot down a balloon at 60,000 ft shows how very wrong the courts have been to allow restrictions on private ownership of military heavy weapons. Clearly for self defense and as members of the pretend state militia people have a right to own, and carry without permits, surface to air missile systems. And clearly originalism would then require allowing lesser weapons like machine guns, RPGs, howitzers, hand grenades, …

    The only thing I can find on how big this balloon is is “as big as three busses”. Misquoting Bill Cosby misquoting Noah, “What’s a bus?” Are we talking three twelve passenger church busses or three 120 seat articulated city busses?

    1
  10. Kathy says:

    @CSK:

    No problem, you just use 6.66 guns 😉

    2
  11. Kurtz says:

    @Jax:

    Articles like that send me down a rabbit hole of reading pieces by people quoted. In this case, it is Alexander Zubatov.

    I now hold a grudge against you, Jax. It’s your fault I can’t control myself.

    2
  12. charon says:

    @gVOR08:

    The only thing I can find on how big this balloon is is “as big as three busses”. Misquoting Bill Cosby misquoting Noah, “What’s a bus?” Are we talking three twelve passenger church busses or three 120 seat articulated city busses?

    That’s the payload it’s carrying, not the inflated part.

  13. Scott says:

    Florida athletes may soon be required to submit their menstrual history to schools

    A proposed draft of a physical education form in Florida could require all high school student athletes to disclose information regarding their menstrual history — a move that’s already drawing pushback from opponents who say the measure would harm students.

    The draft — published last month by the Florida High School Athletic Association, a group that oversees interscholastic athletic programs across the state — proposes making currently optional questions regarding a student’s menstrual cycle mandatory, as reported by the Palm Beach Post.
    The form, if approved, would ask students if they’ve had a menstrual cycle, and if so, at what age they had their first menstrual period, their most recent menstrual period and “how many periods [the student has] had in the past 12 months.”

    I can’t think of anything more intrusive and demeaning. If I were the parent of a HS girl, I would do my reporting by mailing used tampons and pads to DeSantis.

    10
  14. gVOR08 says:

    @charon:

    That’s the payload it’s carrying, not the inflated part.

    That was my initial read. I googled looking for clarification. I found little. OK I found lots of material, but little clarification. More sources seemed to be implying balloon diameter. If I take a bus as a nice round 50′, 150′ seems small for a balloon, absurdly large for a camera gondola or some such, and maybe the length of the solar array. The array looks to be about 2/3 the balloon diameter, which would get me to a 225′ balloon, which still seems small as such things go.

    I’ll bend this around to my running thing about the fallacy of imperfection. The right are constantly criticizing any flaw in the MSM as proving it’s all fake news. Right now they’re having a field day with Russia, Russia, Russia and I see the Columbia Journalism Review has some sort of long mia culpa I haven’t read yet. Mindlessly repeating a quote that the balloon is the size of three busses without noting what part is that size or how big a bus they’re talking about is the level of technical know-how and precision I expect from the media. It’s akin to reporting a small plane engine stalled when one assumes the original report said the airplane stalled, an entirely different thing. That the press distort stories for drama and miss important details isn’t an outrage or some sort of bias, it’s Saturday.

  15. gVOR08 says:

    @James Joyner:

    But, as a common sense measure, it certainly makes sense to strip those folks of gun rights.

    There are two kinds of people in the world, people who divide the world into two kinds of people and people who don’t. Reading conservative sources I often feel like a) the ability to generalize is supposed to be a sign of intelligence, but it can be taken to a rather stupid level of meaningless abstraction and b) maybe there are two kinds of people, utilitarians and normatives. If one has a normative bent, “My Second Amendment rights are absolute.” makes sense. As a utilitarian I would observe that allowing people under restraining orders to possess guns is, quite literally, insane.

    After Dobbs it took what, days, for the first horror stories to emerge. Notably the ten year old rape victim in Ohio who had to go to Indiana for an abortion, that within weeks also became illegal in Indiana. Has anybody heard a horror story about someone under a restraining order being murdered or robbed because he didn’t have his gun? In the real world the 2A is a close second to the 3A (no quartering troops) as a useless right. Although I’ve handled and fired them, I’ve never owned a gun. I don’t recall having been harmed in any way as a result.

    1
  16. Jax says:

    @Kurtz: Yeah….my mental response when I read that paragraph quoting him was “Oh, shut the fuck up, you snowflake whiner.” 😛 😛

  17. Gustopher says:

    @James Joyner:

    Technically, it simply overturns a law making it a felony to possess firearms while under a restraining order, which does seem to run up against due process concerns.

    Restraining orders are put in place by a judge, and can be challenged. That is two steps for due process. And they are temporary.

    My non-lawyerly interpretation of the legal issues is that your non-lawyerly interpretation is deeply flawed.

    I would not be opposed to an expedited process for challenging restraining orders though. (In fact, getting the man in front of a judge when he’s still really angry makes me think the challenge is less likely to work…)

    1
  18. Matt says:

    @James Joyner: I know a guy who had a restraining order put against him by his soon to be ex-wife. She played the system so well everyone was convinced her husband was abusive to her and the kids. She engaged in all the dirty tricks to try to screw him out of everything including his kids. Fortunately reality intruded upon her fantasies (he got a bit lucky too) and in the end she lost badly. Unfortunately by the time all this worked its way through the courts his standing/reputation in the surrounding communities was already destroyed. None of the penalties imposed by the courts on his ex-wife helped his reputation.

    So while my “common sense” tends to agree I’ve seen first hand how people will abuse the system.

    @CSK: MTG recently stated in a committee hearing that an elementary school in Illinois received $5 billion to teach critical race theory… I would call her grasp on reality tenuous at best.

    Or I could just call a spade a spade and call her a moron…

    4
  19. CSK says:

    @Matt:

    I have no doubt MTG is far from the brightest bulb in the chandelier, but remember that when she makes idiotic comments such as this, she’s appealing to the Trumpkins by imitating Trump.

    2
  20. steve says:

    Apparently if its a misdemeanor act of domestic violence you get to keep your gun. Of course by definition threatening someone with your gun is a misdemeanor.

    “What is a “misdemeanor crime of domestic violence”?

    A “misdemeanor crime of domestic violence” is an offense that:

    Is a misdemeanor under federal, state, or tribal law;
    Has, as an element, the use or attempted use of physical force, or the threatened use of a deadly weapon; and
    Was committed by a current or former spouse, parent, or guardian of the victim, by a person with whom the victim shares a child in common, by a person who is cohabiting with or has cohabited with the victim as a spouse, parent, or guardian, by a person similarly situated to a spouse, parent, or guardian of the victim, or by a person who has a current or recent former dating relationship with the victim.”

    https://www.atf.gov/firearms/qa/what-misdemeanor-crime-domestic-violence

    Steve

  21. Pete S says:

    @Scott:
    I can’t tell if this is just a continuation of Republicans ongoing efforts to use the state to get them access to the bodies of young girls, and driving girls not to want to compete in sports is a happy secondary effect, or if it is the other way around.

  22. CSK says:

    @Pete S:
    I think it may well be to prevent transgender women from participating in women’s sports.

  23. Matt says:

    @CSK: I don’t know man she seemed to truly believe that an elementary school in Illinois received 5 billion to teach CRT. If she’s just trying to act stupid for the trumpsters then she’s one hell of an actor.

  24. Gustopher says:

    @Matt: I think that restraining orders should not be a matter of public record, or used in custody issues*, unless violated, because they can be weaponized and cause lasting harm.

    But, I don’t think being deprived of access to guns for a while is lasting harm.

    Also, just to be clear, I think the vast majority of petitions for restraining orders are made in good faith. But, I would take it as a given that no one asking for one is in great emotional shape (genuinely in fear of their life, annoyed the shithead won’t stay away and keeps trying to fix things that can’t be fixed, angry that he slept with someone else, etc) and that can lead to bad decisions. The dude (it’s almost always a dude) is probably not in great emotional shape either for that matter. It’s not that I don’t trust women, it’s that I don’t trust people. Someone is off their rocker, and if an intervention of law enforcement and judges fixes it, probably causes less harm to bury the order.

    (I do wonder how many restraining orders are effectively that men don’t realize they are a foot taller and a hundred pounds heavier, and that any emotional outburst from them just looks a lot more threatening. At six and a half feet tall, I know that even raising my voice can scare people)

    ——
    *: the behavior that caused a restraining order to be requested, however, should be.

  25. Gustopher says:

    @Matt: At a certain point it doesn’t matter if a person is genuinely a bigoted moron or just pretending to be a bigoted moron.

    Not sure why anyone from the Biden administration feels compelled to even attempt to answer her questions. She doesn’t want information, she wants sound bites where someone is flustered by her brilliant questions that totally own the libs.

    A nice, calm “You’re a very stupid person making very stupid claims, next please.” should suffice.

  26. dazedandconfused says:

    @Scott: That it’s from the athletic dept indicates this may be nothing political. Google up amenorrhea for starters.

    I have a bit of personal experience with the subject due to all the BB programs I went to. It was pretty common for women BB players in the 90s, back when all the players in top-drawer programs looked like marathoners. Since then it has been determined that subjecting women to the men’s top-drawer training regimen is unwise, and when women’s BB became much more of a “thing”
    that’s what they did.

    Testosterone is a recognized PHD, and among the benefits is reduced recovery time. Women lost too much weight and strength, so nowadays they train with longer recovery periods and (for the pros) increased gaps between games. They no longer all look like marathoners, the troubling condition is seen much less often, and are both quicker and stronger.

    The athletic depts might simply be seeking baseline data on individual’s normal in order to better judge if the individual is being overtrained.

    Besides, as a way to discover pregnancies the data is useless.

    3
  27. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @James Joyner: Sorry, been busy today. Can only say that loose guns should be denied loose guns. Speaking only for myself, I have been on both sides of this issue. And had to report to the STL cops that my .357 Ruger Blackhawk was no longer in my possession after being served with a restraining order and that I was no longer responsible for who got shot with my hand gun.

    And then talked to a neighbor of my ex who told me that her “boyfriend” was off the cuff with it and that I needed to get my sons out of her house. It took me a good 8 years but I finally managed it. In the process, I faced numerous gun threats and while I didn’t take them serious, I could not ignore them. Especially when her asshole husband threatened my parents.

    James, we have a gun problem. Anybody with half a brain recognizes this. The question is, do we have the balls to deal with the problem?

    I doubt it.

    1
  28. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Gustopher: It was 2 weeks for me. 2 weeks of pure hell, but then it was over.

    Looking back at it, and everything else I went thru after, it doesn’t seem so bad. But at the time the fear for my sons was all but overwhelming.

  29. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Gustopher: But, I would take it as a given that no one asking for one is in great emotional shape (genuinely in fear of their life, annoyed the shithead won’t stay away and keeps trying to fix things that can’t be fixed, angry that he slept with someone else, etc) and that can lead to bad decisions. The dude (it’s almost always a dude) is probably not in great emotional shape either for that matter.

    In my case, my ex was off the wall. While I wasn’t in great emotional shape myself, I was in control. The cops on the scene (all male, patrolmen to sergeant all told me to get a restraining order against her. If I had listened to them, maybe things would have been better but I doubt it. I suspect they would have just been more expensive.

    As far as “genuinely in fear of her life,”

    NOT. In fact when the cops showed up to kick me out of my house, she sent them away. Telling me she only wanted to be able to talk with me….

    Yeah, with a sledgehammer over my head. If I had known how the legal system worked, Id have shoved it all up her ass (once she sent the cops away the restraining order was null and void)(but I didn’t know that)

    I gotta go. Just talked to my eldest about my youngest. It’s never done.

    1