John McCain the Comeback Codger?
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James Joyner | Saturday, December 29, 2007 |
Des Moines Register columnist Marc Hanson dubs John McCain the “Comeback Codger.”
Every four years, it seems, one of the presidential candidates left for dead rises from the tomb and surprises everyone on caucus night. Around this time in 2004, John Kerry and John Edwards came alive, finishing first and second.
Who will it be this time? Rather than waiting until Thursday night to find out, we in the media believe in the public’s right to know the future. So we do our best to sniff it out beforehand. Just a few days before the big night, more than a few political bloodhounds are saying, “What about John McCain?”
While you wouldn’t call McCain a comeback kid, could the 71-year-old senator from Arizona turn out to be the comeback codger?
McCain is close behind Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. He’s spent the past two or three weeks collecting endorsements and picking up speed. If he finishes in the top three here, he sails onto New Hampshire with a tail wind.
Indeed, McCain has moved into third place in the national polls and within the margin of error of second place Mike Huckabee. Indeed, he’s in a virtual tie for first in the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey, the most recent national poll, with 19 percent to Rudy Giuliani’s 20 and Huckabee’s 19.
Iowa continues to be a two-way race between Huckabee and Romney. Bob Novak, though, reports on a “new survey of an oversized sample” wherein a “private corporate interest commissioned a phone bank survey of 15,000 Iowans who say they will attend Republican presidential caucuses” which “shows Huckabee slipping and no longer ahead of Romney.” For what it’s worth, “McCain was the leading second-choice candidate for both Huckabee and Romney voters.”
New Hampshire appears to be a two-way contest between McCain and Romney — and McCain is trending sharply up.
What’s truly amazing, though, is that we’re less than a week away from the actual voting and the race seems much more up in the air than it was a month, let alone three, ago.
Photo source: The Plethora.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia.
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- Michigan Primary Results: Romney, Clinton Win
- Iowa Caucus Results - Huckabee, Obama Win
- McCain Clinches Republican Nomination
- McCain Lead Growing in New Hampshire
- Romney Endorses McCain
- Huckabee Second in AP Poll
- McCain Wins South Carolina Primary
- Obama and Huckabee Win Much-Ignored Primaries
- ABC Cuts Also-Rans from Debates
- On to Michigan - McCain vs. Romney
- PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts linked with It’s the Iowa GOP Edition of the Toast-O-Meter
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“new survey of an oversized sample”
Further proving what an idiot Bob Novak is--an "oversized" sample of 15,000 doesn't necessarily make a poll any more valid than the "normal" size.
The fact that Novak doesn't even identify the "private corporate interest" which commissioned the poll nor that he doesn't provide relevant information like the margin of error makes any interpretation of the numbers meaningless.
I have to say, the events in Pakistan - a blaring reminder of what is going on in the world and the challenges America will be facing in years to come - have certainly made John McCain seem more attractive than he's ever been...
As I've said before, it's not that McCain is having a 'comeback' moment - he's just got enough experience in political competition at this level to know when to keep his head down & his mouth shut, letting his competition self-destruct.
McCain comeback huh? I saw the movie - "the Return of the Monster"
Some sequels just don't cut it. What we are witnessing is an absolute circus as a result of a party in meltdown mode. The base is bouncing around looking for true conservative leadership in the form of a principled man who exudes honesty and character and they can't find it in this - big tent - liberal lite - don't know what they stand for - media driven -party.
300 million people in this country and this is all we have to choose from - because Lieberman (90% liberal) likes him?
A "principled man who exudes honesty and character" in American politics? How about a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow?
Heh. A few days ago somebody referred to him as a "comeback kid." I took note of McCain's age and suggested calling him a kid of any kind was probably not appropriate.
we’re less than a week away from the actual voting and the race seems much more up in the air than it was a month, let alone three, ago.
I seem to recall that happened four years ago too.
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