Daily Poll Roundup

Reuters Poll: Bush, Kerry Tied in White House Race (Reuters)

Democratic Sen. John Kerry pulled into a statistical dead heat with President Bush in a seesawing battle for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Monday. The latest three-day tracking poll showed Kerry and Bush deadlocked at 45 percent apiece barely two weeks before the Nov. 2 election. The president had a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that. About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the two White House rivals. “This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead,” pollster John Zogby said.

Kerry campaigned Sunday in Ohio and Florida while Bush took a day off in Washington. Ohio and Florida top a list of about 10 tightly fought swing states where the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the White House will be decided.

With both candidates battling for every last vote, Bush holds a four-point edge in the suburbs and the two candidates are tied in small cities, the poll found. Kerry comfortably leads Bush among urban voters and Bush holds a strong lead among rural voters.

This is the only new poll released overnight and it moves the RCP average to Bush 48.8%, Kerry 45.2%, and Nader 1.7% — a Bush advantage of 3.6%.

The all-important Electoral College?

  • Scott Elliot’s Election Projection now puts the electoral vote race at Bush 274, Kerry 264.
  • Electoral Vote.com has it Kerry 253, Bush 247 — but that’s showing Florida as “exactly tied” and therefore not in anyone’s column.
  • VodkaPundit Stephen Green has it at Bush 274, Kerry 264.
  • Slate’s Election Scorecard, meanwhile, hasn’t updated in almost a week>. UPDATE: They posted later in the day: Bush 272-Kerry 266.

So, no one shows Kerry getting to the magic 270 elector threshhold but they all show him within striking distance.

FILED UNDER: 2004 Election, Public Opinion Polls, , , , , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. McGehee says:

    Some comment threads I’ve seen indicate concern that Bush voters may be complacent over recent nationwide popular-vote polls (even though 2000 proved that such polls are all but irrelevant even when they’re accurate).

    So I have a warning for Bush supporters who fail to vote, here.