Monday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Sleeping Dog says:

    ‘There is no plan. There’s nothing’: Florida Democrats in despair over future

    Florida Dems are just recognizing this now? Its been obvious to national Dems for several years.

    These factors have compounded their worries about Democrats outside Florida all but writing off the nation’s third most populous state, which was once seen as a marquee battleground. Democrats have struggled there in recent elections, hitting a new low last fall when Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won a second term by nearly 20 points and carried majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade County, which a GOP gubernatorial nominee hadn’t done in 20 years. Republicans also secured a supermajority in the state legislature.

    Now, as Democrats look to 2024, there are few early signs that Florida will be a top priority for President Biden, who has said he intends to run for reelection. A Biden adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe strategy, said decisions about whether a reelection campaign would invest in Florida would be based in part on the Republican nominee. Some Democrats see little hope of contesting Florida’s 30 electoral votes — only Texas and California are allotted more — in 2024 if DeSantis is the nominee, while there’s a greater opportunity if former president Donald Trump wins the GOP nod.

    “The thing about Florida Democrats is we keep learning with every passing year that just when you thought you had hit bottom, you discover that there are new abysses to fall deeper and deeper into,” said Fernand Amandi, a veteran Democratic operative in the state. “There is no plan. There’s nothing. It’s just a state of suspended animation and chaos — and, more than anything, it’s the mournful regret and acceptance that Florida has been cast aside for the long, foreseeable future.”

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  2. senyordave says:

    I’m a snowbird and in Florida 6 months a year. I am a member of the local Democratic club. The club meets monthly and at every meeting what I hear is two main points:
    1. The national Democrats have abandoned us
    2. If we just had the right message the Democrats would win (or the right candidate or more money, etc.)
    The first is probably true, but right now I don’t see the second as being true at all. Other than the SE coast, Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida is hard right Republican. I don’t see a magic message that will win over current Republicans. And nationally, outside of the northeast and the pacific coast, the Democrats will either struggle or have no chance. When bussing migrants in the middle of the winter and dumping them on people’s front door turns into a plus for your party it speaks volumes about the character of the people who applaud that decision. The Republicans devote most of their energy to demonizing groups of people (immigrants, whether legal or not and trans people are their current boogeymen), and it works.
    I can see not liking the Democrats, but the Republicans have not even pretended to care about governing for decades. But the only thing that really works for the Democrats is that Republicans have such god-awful candidates.

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  3. MarkedMan says:

    @senyordave: As an outsider my impression is that the Florida Democratic Party is a total mess. How about from your inside perspective?

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  4. Sleeping Dog says:

    ‘Fox News in Spanish’: Inside an upstart media company’s big plans to impact the 2024 election

    Strategists behind Americano’s expansion efforts say they believe there is a limit to the GOP’s gains with Latinos in recent years. The low-hanging fruit has already fallen, they say, requiring Republicans to do a bit more work to pick off remaining centrist voters, something Americano intends to do by offering a combination of fairly straight news, mixed with conservative commentary and eventually entertainment offerings.

    Democratic operatives, who have long warned that the absence of more robust investments in Spanish media could have boomeranging effects, acknowledge that targeting that type of niche audience could be a highly effective plan.

    “There is an information war in Latino and bilingual communities in this country,” said Tara McGowan, the founder and publisher of the Democratic-aligned Courier Newsroom network, who has been vocal about the left needing to build new, progressive media outlets. “It’s a very smart and very alarming move by conservatives to double down on their investment in Americano Media.”

    But of course…

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  5. senyordave says:

    @MarkedMan: I think it is a mix of reality and perception. The party seems to be very insider, and they definitely are tone deaf in many ways. For example, the party clearly favored Charlie Crist as their candidate of choice for governor. He came off as your kindly grandfather who should be playing golf in his retirement. No one would have beaten DeSantis, but Crist was a poor choice.
    But the perception seems to be that Florida is a toss up state that might lean republican. I think that’s way off, Florida is a solid Republican state. The population has grown more than 30% in the last 20 years, and I believe it is far more conservative than it once was. We talk about the “crazy” stuff DeSantis does in this forum, but it is generally popular within the state. Outside of the liberal areas there seems to be a strong anti-intellectual strain in Florida, and DeSantis has tapped into that.
    IMO at this point a severe economic downturn is the only thing that would make Florida attainable for the Democrats.

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  6. Kathy says:

    The plan was for fettuccine with chicken strips in a creamy garlic and mushroom sauce. But I got some leftover turkey from my mom, so I went with that.

    For a starter I made a stew with onions, bell pepper strips, soybean sprouts, lentils, beans, chickpeas, and hot dog slices.

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  7. Michael Cain says:

    @senyordave:

    And nationally, outside of the northeast and the pacific coast, the Democrats will either struggle or have no chance.

    The Interior/Mountain West now has more Democratic Senators in Washington, DC than the entire Midwest.

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  8. reid says:

    @Michael Cain: Indeed. New Mexico is now completely blue in Congress, and we have nary a coastline.

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  9. Slugger says:

    At age 27, Mahomes is the oldest quarterback still in the playoffs. Two are less than 25. Is this a generational thing or a reflection of the development of the game?

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  10. Mister Bluster says:

    @Slugger:..generational thing…

    Might have something to do with DNA. Check to see if their moms played Powder Puff Football.

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  11. Kathy says:

    @Slugger:

    Several long-time starters have retired in the past five years, and several new QBs have come up in the same time frame. Plus many teams have been playing musical chairs with the position.

    So, chance and distribution of talent.

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  12. CSK says:

    Gregory Morey, George Santos’s former roommate, says Santos told him he only wanted to be elected to Congress for one term because then he’d get a pension and health care for life.

    It doesn’t work that way.

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  13. Sleeping Dog says:

    @CSK:

    When he goes to prison, he’ll get the healthcare and 3 squares a day plus all the orange clothes he needs.

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  14. CSK says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    Plus a charming six by eight studio apartment rent-free!

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  15. Mister Bluster says:

    Oath Keepers members found guilty of seditious conspiracy
    Three members of the Oath Keepers and a fourth person associated with the far-right militia group were convicted of seditious conspiracy by a Washington, DC, jury on Monday for their role in the January 6, 2021, insurrection.
    CNN

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  16. daryl and his brother darryl says:

    4 more Oathkeepers convicted of seditious conspiracy.
    Check me on this but I think the DOJ has a 100% conviction rate on Jan. 6 cases that go to a jury trial.

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  17. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Mister Bluster:
    @daryl and his brother darryl:

    I expect that their attorneys will be having serious conversations with them about giving up whoever they were speaking to in the WH and Roger Stone, Eastman and others outside the WH in exchange for short time in the hoosegow.

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  18. wr says:

    @reid: “New Mexico is now completely blue in Congress, and we have nary a coastline.”

    You should get one. They’re great!

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  19. Kathy says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    The proud boys’ Defense Team is pretty much demanding Benito be held accountable for his part in the insurrection.

    This is a defense tactic, so his clients may not mean it.

    In any case, while he’s not wrong, the fact that they were lower down on the pecking order does not absolve them.

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  20. Jay L Gischer says:

    I think the Mountain West is swinging blue on two issues: Climate Change (there’s no snow on the mountains, this is obvious to someone who works the land, they know what it should look like), and immigration.

    Why immigration? Well, no less a person than Cliven Bundy said of his fellow Republicans, “They are wrong about Mexicans. They are good people.”

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  21. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Jay L Gischer: And the other reason for bluing of the west is outmigration from California, and to some extent Seattle. Not sure about Portland.

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  22. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    I expect that their attorneys will be having serious conversations with them about giving up whoever they were speaking to in the WH and Roger Stone, Eastman and others outside the WH in exchange for short time in the hoosegow.

    Why? Have either the AG or the Special Prosecutor ever suggested an interest in having such a conversation? Forgive my cynicism, but having the conversation could play hob with running out the clock on prosecuting the people the system usually protects from prosecution. We can’t be putting the people in the corridors of power in the clink. What would the other nations think?

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  23. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Kathy: “The proud boys’ Defense Team is pretty much demanding Benito be held accountable for his part in the insurrection.”

    Ah ha! The acid test of my question may be in the offing. This could be interesting. Bwa ha ha ha ha ha.

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  24. CSK says:

    Trump has hired Joe Tacopina to go after Mark Pomerantz, the NY ADA who quit when Alvin Bragg declined to go after Trump.

    You may recall that Tacopina, who’s often called “the most hated lawyer in NY,” represented the loathsome Joran van der Sloot, murderer of Natalee Holloway and Stephany Flores.

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  25. Gustopher says:

    @wr: Are you suggesting they annex parts of Texas (or Arizona and California) to get to a coast, or a Superman movie scenario of sinking large chunks of land into the ocean?

    I might suggest annexing the Old Mexico into New Mexico, but I think we should check in with the folks living there first.

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  26. Gustopher says:

    While I’m thinking about redrawing lines, we could solve the DC statehood issue by ceding the district to Wyoming.

    There’s a precedent for geographically separate states (upper and lower Wisconsin, or is it Michigan?), and it would give DC some rural interests along with urban, so it would be a much more diverse state, eliminating complaints that it would be the only state without a car dealership.

    And Wyoming would get an urban center, which can only be good for its tax base.

    It wouldn’t increase the number of Senators, so we wouldn’t need any more desks in the Senate — a big savings on office furniture! Office space too!

    And it preserves the song “Fifty Nifty United States” although some might say that the song is roughly akin to a war crime.

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  27. Flat Earth Luddite says:

    @Jay L Gischer:

    Not sure about Portland.

    Jay, nobody is sure about Portland. Motto: The City that Doesn’t Work. Or, as I noted to Cracker 38+ years ago, “Cracker, I think the state motto is ‘Things Sure Are Different Here’.” Although I’ll admit the personal ads in Willamette Week are a lot tamer than they were then.

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  28. Flat Earth Luddite says:

    Filed under “Oh, my merciful Dawg”

    Ayup, Maya’s bound to be pretty non-polarizing, especially to Tucker & Co (snark emoji insert)

    https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/mms-spokescandy-controversy-just-publicity-stunt-rcna67032

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  29. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Flat Earth Luddite: I STILL think that Willamette Week should have given their new state motto prize to “I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore, Toto.”

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  30. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Mister Bluster: Good.

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  31. Mister Bluster says:

    Minnie Riperton sang this song to her infant daughter Maya Rudolph.

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  32. Kathy says:

    So, Benito was photographed with a mobster.

    The media is reporting on it. The campaign, such as it is, issued some disingenuous denial. Me, I think a candidate for office is meeting with a prospect for Attorney General.

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  33. Slugger says:

    @Mister Bluster: I didn’t know that. My mother died of breast cancer also. I can’t listen to that song without tearing up. Tearing up in a good way. I watched the 30 by 30 about North Carolina State last night for maybe the fourth time. A day on which you laugh, a day on which you think, a day on which you cry…that’s a good day. Thanks Jimmy V, thanks Minnie. I’ve had a good day today.

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  34. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @Mister Bluster: @Slugger:

    If you listen to her ad libs at the very end of the song you will hear her sing Mayas name

    Many early 90s New York Hip Hop groups sampled Minnie Riperton, which is how I learned of her. I eventually started listening to her albums directly. That era of Hip Hop introduced an entire audience of its most devoted fans to 60s-80s R&B, Soul, Jazz, and Rock and Roll

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  35. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @MarkedMan: @senyordave:

    Florida is not a lost cause to Democrats and more than Georgia was lost. The Florida Democratic Party is old, incestuous, and lazy.

    Seriously, the nomination of Charlie Christ was exhibit #1. He suppressed Democratic voters. No one save the hardest Democrat was going be inconvenienced to vote for him. “Flori-duh man syndrome does not stop with Republicans. It’s cultural. Andrew Gillum, a B-list mayor, made Desantis look silly—basically by impersonating Obama. Imagine what an actual authentic candidate would do to him?

    But the Party apparatus here is cliquish to a fault, they will continue to lose with the Party in-crowd and blame everything else but themselves—Instead of recruiting a fresh charismatic candidate and designing an authentic message that resonates in the suburbs.

    No Democrat is going to win in Florida with a message crafted for California in New York. Hell, even the GA Senators didn’t do that. The Democrats are here, but they have a conservative bend to them, and are going to trip over themselves to vote for stiff after stiff who thing the last loser “wasn’t liberal enough”.

    *This does not include Val Demmings who stuck the right chord but simply could not mute the Desantis noise machine and had a boulder name Christ tied around her neck.

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  36. Gustopher says:

    @Jim Brown 32:

    The Democrats are here, but they have a conservative bend to them, and are going to trip over themselves to vote for stiff after stiff who thing the last loser “wasn’t liberal enough”.

    Given the success of Sherrod Brown, John Tester and John Fetterman, I think the exact level of liberalness isn’t the problem*, but the genuineness. Plus, Charlie Crist rolling around in loser stink.

    (That said, triangulating weasels have also had success in the past, as measured by Bill Clinton.)

    This does not include Val Demmings who stuck the right chord but simply could not…

    Ok, the genuine candidate might also have to be a white man.

    *: and any more liberal than Manchin and Sinema is kind of irrelevant for Senate or even the House — it’s a nice to have, sure, but for the time being it isn’t going to make a difference.

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  37. wr says:

    @Gustopher: ” Are you suggesting they annex parts of Texas (or Arizona and California) to get to a coast, or a Superman movie scenario of sinking large chunks of land into the ocean?”

    I’m a big picture guy. I let others fill in the details!

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