Monday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, July 13, 2020
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85 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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The headline of the day-
Florida’s 15,300 new COVID-19 cases sets a new U.S. pandemic record, topping New York’s April 4 peak
Lower cognitive ability linked to non-compliance with social distancing guidelines during the coronavirus outbreak
‘Nuff said.
There is a growing consensus in NY’s legal community to seek to indict Roger Stone for intimidation of a witness (felony) and witness tampering (misdemeanor) with respect to his communications with Randy Credico, a resident of the city and state of NY. Stay tuned …
There is nothing more maddening — and counterproductive — to me than differentiating between the racists who vote for the racism, and the non racists who vote for the racism anyway because…. reasons.
F them and U, CC.
Nature and Science Zone
@NatureandScien4
The hairy frog (Trichobatrachus robustus), also called horror frog or Wolverine frog, is found in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and possibly Angola. I think a haircut is in order.
Lost in the latest depressingly high coronavirus numbers and Roger Stone’s commutation was this gem:
New York Times: Trump considered selling Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria, former acting Homeland Security chief says
The fact that the man thinks literally anything can be bought (e.g., Greenland) or sold (apparently, Puerto Rico) is so strange.
@OzarkHillbilly: Wait, Samuel R Delaney is still alive?!
@HarvardLaw92: There’s no doubt that I’ll be paying attention. Is there any prediction regarding a time? That is, before or after Jan 20th?
Have thought couple of times that the removal of the U S Attorney for Eastern District was strangely ignored here. Your ref to the NY legal community gave me this opportunity. Thanks!
Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests
@MarkedMan: According to the google he is, 78 and still kicking.
@JohnMcC:
Not that I’ve heard. There are some jurisdictional questions to resolve, and AB6533 is as yet untested, but I’d imagine it would be sooner rather than later.
@OzarkHillbilly: 78 isn’t really that old these days (it’s approximately the average lifespan in America). Indeed, he’s about the same age as Bernie Sanders. I still have trouble believing Norman Lear is still alive and kicking as of this writing (97).
@Kylopod: I have enough health issues to doubt I’ll make it to 78. Hell’s bells, at this point in the pandemic, I’m not so sure I’ll see 63.
I had a chance to chat with an MD over the weekend. She explained that most masks of all kinds are designed to keep stuff in, but that they also keep stuff out. So while wearing a mask keeps an infected person from spreading SARS-CoV-2 effectively, it also protects a non-infected person from it, albeit less effectively.
In short, the only valid reason for not wearing masks, is if you want the virus to spread.
As to distancing, we go back to odds. We all know how a light beam spreads as it moves away from its source, a phenomenon that affects shotgun pellets, and virus-laden droplets and aerosols. Therefore the closer you are to someone who may be infected, the greater your exposure.
The only reason not to keep distance, is if you want the virus to spread.
According to the WaPo…Trump has uttered his 20,000th lie.
Impressive performance.
Also, fittingly, it came on Hannity’s show.
@HarvardLaw92:
I’ve been wondering if someone in the legal community was going to say, “Nuh-uh, this will not stand.”
I read somewhere that for a sentence to be commuted the subject must 1) have actually served time, and 2) must not be actively pursuing an appeal.
Stone doesn’t satisfy either.
So in my own personal mind-movie the Judge says OK…but for the commutation to be valid you have to spend at least 24 hours in jail.
Then…because I assume he has immunity…he is forced to testify, and when he refuses he is thrown in jail for contempt until he testifies.
Or something like that…who knows…IANAL.
@Bill:
FL’s gone insane – well, more insane then normal. Thank god I was able to convince the fam to not go to Disney this year as with my luck, we’d all get sick the second we landed at MCO.
They’re going to end up losing a significant loss of their population at this rate. Even with all the advancements we have in treatments for COVID, large numbers means an increase in preventable death due to sheer resource strain. God’s Waiting Room is gonna be a lot emptier by end of year…..
@Kathy:
There’s a rather crude but very effective explanation of how masks work going around FB. It is as follows:
– In a world where nowhere wears pants and people pee on others constantly, both you and he will get splashed with pee should something happen. Everyone is exposed and unhappy
_- Should you wear pants and he doesn’t, you will get a little wet but the clothes will take most of the hit. Your skin will receive little urine exposure. Not great but better than nothing
– If he wears pants but you don’t, you won’t get any on you at all…. unless you’re too damn close. Social distancing, people!
– If both of you are wearing pants, you are completely protected from getting peed on. The lesson? Everyone wear
pantsmasks to stop exposure!!Comments on the image seems to indicate that more people get the concept after viewing it. After all, nobody wants to get peed on so of course the logic of a preventive barrier makes sense. *You’re* not the one peeing but even if you do have an incident, you are preventing it from happening to someone else and thus avoiding a very unpleasant situation for all. Since you don’t want to be peed on, you would expect pants on another to prevent you from being affected. Just as masks protect you because *others* are wearing them as well, so too does pants-wearing by other parties prevent getting soaked.
@KM:
The irony is that urine is largely harmless.
The graphic needs to show what happens when people who wear pants around their ankles, or walk around with their flies open.
In a couple of environmental news items:
Maybe renewable energy isn’t as desirable as it’s cracked up to be.
Unlike the mid-west and even NY and PA, most unmanaged/barely managed land is woods and forests, so siting a solar array means clearing the land. I suspect that this is one of those issues that is in part a real concern with a healthy dose of NIMBYism.
Here in NE, one of the greatest barriers to green energy is NIMBYism.
Profiting through bankruptcy and leaving the bill with the taxpayers.
For companies in bankruptcy, claw back all monies paid to executives beyond base salaries for the prior 5 years.
Make failure to escrow the monies required to shut down the well a criminal act where the CEO does the time.
different-church-lady at Balloon Juice: “Frequently when I want to know if a grenade is still active, I hold “pull-the-pin” parties”
Yeah it is. The issue of siting solar arrays is easily addressed by putting them where the people already are. A number of utilities are doing exactly this with homeowners thru various programs.
@Kathy: I haven’t wanted to make an issue of it with the numerous individuals, but what good do they think the mask is doing anybody with their nose exposed? (Rhetorical question, the boss said wear a mask.)
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
The problem with commutation as opposed to pardon is that commutation doesn’t vitiate 5th amendment remedies against self-incrimination. In Stone’s case, he was convicted and sentence had been imposed, so the adjudication of the matter before the court was concluded. I don’t like what Trump did, but from a legal standpoint there is nothing problematic about it.
The State of NY, meanwhile, has stringent double jeopardy protections which normally make it difficult for it to take its bite at the apple under state sovereignty, but the Assembly passed (and Cuomo signed into law) AB 6653, which sidesteps that problem with respect to a specified group of personnel within the sphere of the presidency, including immediate family. The law hasn’t been tested yet, but on face I don’t see any glaring problems with it. The door is open for NY to indict Stone; it’ll just be a question of if and when it happens.From the folks I have talked to, they very much want to pursue it.
@gVOR08:
I’d be more active on that at work, were it not that the boss doesn’t even wear a mask, and neither do most of the managers. They’re setting a terrible example, and putting all our lives at risk.
And they don’t give a damn.
@gVOR08: I look at it this way: I am better protected than I would be if they went maskless. At least this way, most of the spittle ejected in a coughing fit or sneeze* will be caught in the mask.
*unless they sneeze thru their nose like I do.
My dad died in December at the age 69. I’m not sad about his death, because he got lucky. I have seen people waste away in hospital beds for months while bone cancer ate them. I’ve seen other horrifyingly bad deaths. Lymphoma etc. My dad was sitting in a chair at the age of 69 and all of a sudden keeled over dead of a massive heart attack. If you’ve got to go out, you would pay good money to go out like my dad went out. Good life good life good life lights out.
@HarvardLaw92:
Sure…just go ahead and ruin my mind-movie…
@Sleeping Dog: I don’t. The American Northeast is the most re-forested land in the world, as farmers finally concede to mega-growers from CA, the Midwest, south of the border, etc. Millions of acres have had forests grow up due to inactivity. Giving up 1% of that to save the planet seems like a pretty easy tradeoff
@HarvardLaw92:
Now the Judge in the case wants to see the commutation order to clarify whether it is just the prison time, or if it affects the supervised release as well.
https://twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/1282700168467341314/photo/1
Again…IANAL…but I suppose if he violated the supervised release then she could, theoretically, remand him to custody?
In any case, it seems she is not taking this laying down.
@Teve: Agree. A man I admired once told me, “When it comes I want to drop like a sack of sh.” He did.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
Yah, standard procedure. She’s ultimately responsible for ensuring that Stone serves his sentence as imposed, to the extent that it hasn’t been commuted. Now that it has been, she has to know how and to what degree the commutation order vitiates her imposed sentence in order to know what her next steps are. I wouldn’t read too much into it, to be honest about it. This is procedural. She got preempted, but needs the official order to know exactly how so she can know how to proceed.
@Teve:
I’m sorry you lost your father, but I’m glad he didn’t suffer.
@OzarkHillbilly:
It was rhetorical.
But the experience here in NH belies that the siting process is at all easy. Mass cut a deal to import hydro power from Quebec. I know some will say hydro isn’t green, but that battle was lost 30 years ago. Delivery of the power would have required a power line right of way. That project was called Northern Pass. In the initial proposal it was a environmental disaster, but over time most of the line got routed through existing ROW’s, except for a new section that would follow a state or county highway. For most opponents the animating objection became the height of the new towers and a recycled concern about electrical radiation coming off the lines. In the end it was never built due to that new section. For better or worse, NH has a long tradition to deferring to local decision makers on major projects and in this case the town & county opposed the project, therefore it died after lots of lawsuits.
A number of years ago I was in one of the college towns having lunch, when I was approached by a young man asking that I sign a petition against NP. I began questioning him and after having him agree that he didn’t have the reference material for the factual arguments against he made, only being able to quote the larger opposition organization. At one point we agreed that beyond the questioned facts, most of the opposition was for aesthetic reasons.
At that point I switched gears and asked if he supported a rapid movement to electric cars, he did and switching to renewables for home heating, NH mostly heats with oil and propane, he did. 40% of NH electricity comes from the Seabrook nuke plant that is 40 years old and 15 beyond its expected life span, even the plant’s owners believe it will need to close w/in 20 years. I then asked him about the nuke plant and he supported closing it. Asking how he’d replace that energy and support the increased demand he sited efficiency and renewables, and then quickly specified solar and wind. I conceded that while I didn’t believe that solar or wind could deliver the required power, technology does change.
A week or so earlier it broke in the local news that a plan had been announced for a wind farm in Bristol, a community in Grafton Cty, and immediately opposition went up decrying the ruin of the ridge tops with the towers. I asked him about that and he deferred saying he didn’t know enough about it. That wind farm was never built.
Last fall a trial balloon went up here on the seacoast about an off-shore wind farm, environmental groups were cautiously supportive depending on the effect on marine life, mostly the whales and the commercial fisherman raised their concerns. There was also a small but vocal contingent that opposed due to ruining the view. It should be pointed out that there is no proposal, we have no idea how far from shore the wind vanes would be.
In Misery, like Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota and others, a renewables project can buy up farm land and power generation is simply a different commercial use. It’s different here, we’re going to be fighting a long ugly battle over renewable energy.
For the record I would support the off-shore wind farm and wasn’t opposed to NP as the benefit to the region outweighed possible damage.
@MarkedMan:
I agree with you, but see my response to hillbilly above, the situation is not as clear cut as that.
@Sleeping Dog: We’ve got wind farms all over Illinois. It’s really impressive driving by them on a rainy day when the wind is in the right direction. I feel like I’m in a SF movie–Day of the Triffids?
@Sleeping Dog: I’ve experienced this in NH as well. It’s interesting, to say the least.
We are using more electricity than in the past for a number of reasons: changes in technology, more use of AC in homes as it gets hotter (people are astonished to find out that homes here aren’t really built with central air as a standard. Our home was built in 2014, and had the duct work, but we had to pay to add AC), population changes, etc. But it’s incredibly hard to add generating capacity on any scale for the reasons you outlined.
@Teve: My FiL went the same way. Went to a home team football game (a real football game, not that shit we play on this side of the pond) with his long time friend, sat in the same seat he’d been sitting in for over 30 years, had a good time watching his team lose (again), came out and got into the car. His friend asked him a question. No answer. His friend looked over and Pepe was slumped over the wheel, gone. Never made a sound, just gone.
@Sleeping Dog: Things are never as simple as they should be and NIMBYism is everywhere.
@Jen:
I known people with that reaction as well. We have 3 window units, only one has been installed this year (in my wife’s office), given that we are in near mid-July, the other two will stay in the closet.
@OzarkHillbilly:
NIMBYism is the bane to change.
TV Tropes has a category called “Mexicans Love Speedy Gonzales.” It refers to those instances when members of a group appear to embrace something in our culture that would seem to be stereotypical and insulting to them.
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/MexicansLoveSpeedyGonzales
The previous comment was intended for the thread on the Washington Redskins name-change. I have copied it there.
@OzarkHillbilly: I have never understood the complaint that wind turbines are ugly. I think they’re beautiful, especially when you see the white blades against a blue sky. If you compare them to the ubiquitous scarred brown telephone poles with sagging lines and industrial-looking cell phone towers, wind turbines are much more attractive. I wonder if it’s because most people are so used to the former they probably don’t even notice them.
It would strike me as par for the course, HarvardLaw92, if this President commuted Stone’s prison sentence and no one considered the collateral elements of the judge’s sentencing order, including for example, post-incarceration probation, fines or court costs. Better yet, I would not be much surprised if there wasn’t actually a signed declaration commuting the sentence, it was just something that the White House released without doing the back up.
@Monala:
I would say that this is the case. While I can understand the complaint that it ruins the view of a previously unobstructed ridge line, I don’t see that, in and of itself as a reason not to put a tower up.
The first time I traveled through what was the first wind farm in So. Cali, I found the view oddly beautiful, they synchronous ballet of the blades turning, the odd stopped one. After a while they do become the built environment.
@Bill: Our county’s active case number went from 146 on Friday (down considerably from the previous day) to 180 today. Just when we were hoping to have turned the corner. At least there are no fatalities here so far. That’s something at least. The big increases in infections appear to be among those younger than 40 with significant numbers of children (19 and under), so that’s not promising for the start of school.
@Monala: @Sleeping Dog: I can’t say I find them beautiful. Mesmerizing? Yes, kind of like watching a campfire. But compared to a coal ash pond, strip mine, oil refinery, pipe line, or fracking pad, they are exquisite. On a trip thru Iowa a couple years ago I had my first experience with a wind farm and the sight was a little jarring. We don’t have enough wind for them around here so they won’t be spoiling any of my “views” but the next time I head out west (it’s been a while) I will no doubt mourn the unobstructed views of the vast American prairie from my youth.
And then I’ll accept it because the alternative is a planet my grandchildren and their children can’t live on.
Premise under thirty seconds:
A transgender woman finds her recently deceased husband alive in a parallel universe, married to her parallel self.
Scotland has a lot of wind farms, and I find them quite nice to look at–mostly because my mental framing is “better that than a coal plant belching smoke into the air.” They are sited both on land and offshore. Orkney produces 110% of its needed power from renewable sources, mostly wind but also some ocean current generation and some amusingly optimistic solar panels (I kid, I kid. Given how much daylight they get that far north in the summer, solar probably produces quite a bit of power…when the sun deigns to shine, that is…)
@Kathy:
Were you thinking of “All You Zombies” by Robert Heinlein?
California is shutting down again due to the virus.
@Kylopod:
Emphatically no.
It’s something I’m working on.
@OzarkHillbilly: @Sleeping Dog:
Think of the number and the acreage of flat roofs on commercial buildings.
That we are not exploiting that available resource is astonishing.
There’s a fascinating if depressing piece at politico.com about the Trump voters of Johnstown, Pennsylvania. Short form: Even though he hasn’t kept any of his promises, it’s not his fault and they’ll vote for him again in November.
The kicker is: they never believed his promises.
@de stijl: Exactly.
ETA Saw recently where someone had the bright idea of covering parking lots with them. Solar energy and a shaded vehicle on a hot summer day. What’s not to like?
The fire on the USS Bonhomme Richard is still burning and looks pretty bad, but not much information available. It was under refit, so I would imagine weapons were offloaded, but a news broadcast said there’s a million gallons of fuel on board. At least LHAs aren’t nuke powered.
@Kylopod:
Do you know you two are sounding like you almost know the plot of a short story I just wrote. Zombies, somebody who is TG. Now if you had said it was set in Ireland, Newfoundland, and Boston plus mentioned time travel you’d really have me worried….
Honestly my plot with the exception of the surprise ending isn’t terribly original.
@CSK:
Of course they didn’t. He was never intended to actually do anything then hurt the people they hate and let them feel comfortable being hateful. They never really believed he’d be able to do what he promised but hey, that’s ok because secretly they knew *Trump* never meant to do what he promised. They voted for him because he’s EXACTLY like them or how they’d be if their Ego was unrestrained. He’s the great American fantasy come to life – one of THEM in a position of power… with the exact same result that any rando from the backwoods would get if they tried.
My neighbor flies a “Trump 2020 – No More BS” flag. I’ve asked him what the “BS” the flag was referring to and other then some vague culture war rumblings, no exact BS was ID’d. It’s more a concept like much like “Make love, not war” was to hippies back in the day. A preferred mindset and way of life, MAGA doesn’t have to achieve any goals for people to pick it over more viable alternatives.
@Bill:
Well, I’ve never read a zombie story or seen a zombie movie. So that’s well outside my area of interest.
there’s more to the premise, just not under thirty seconds.
The action happens in orbit and the surface of a planet called Kemet. I should have called it Kmt, but 1) that would make two in-jokes in the scene, and 2) there is a magazine called Kmt.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Some smart person is going to start a business where they buy up limited rights to rooftops, sell power to the leaseholders for cheap, and reap the bounty.
I saw that plan to roof over flat parking lots and put solar panels on top earlier this year.
Brilliant!
I have been working with my local University to plop panels atop all of their flat-topped buildings. The pitch is pretty easy. Why not? They are actively looking for funding.
(I originally misspelled leaseholders as leasholders which amused me greatly.)
@Kathy:
Why transgender?
I mean “why not?” is a fine response, but then why call it out in a one sentence summary? “A left-handed woman finds her recently deceased husband alive in a parallel universe, married to her parallel self.” — the left-handed seems extraneous.
How does her being trans affect the story? Is the parallel self also trans, or is she cis? Does the main character kill her parallel self to take her place after eating her heart to absorb her soul? Is the husband bi and the parallel world one where people cannot fix their physical gender because of religious fundamentalists?
@Jen: As far as I know, modern solar panels can absorb solar energy even when it’s overcast or raining (although certainly not as much as when it’s sunny). So they have been addressing that problem of lack of sun for a long time.
@Kathy:
Just to be clear–are either of you familiar with the short story I referenced? It’s not a zombie story, it just used the word in the title. Its premise sounded to me a little like the one Kathy proposed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_You_Zombies
@Gustopher: I believe Kathy is a trans woman, so exploring a fictional scenario from her perspective makes sense. Not to mention, it sounds unique and interesting!
(Kathy, if I’ve misrepresented you in any way, please let me know).
@Gustopher:
For reasons that take over thirty seconds 🙂
The “why not?” transgender woman is slated for a story earlier in the same story universe, tentatively called “The Third Necropolis.”
@Kylopod:
I’ve read. I didn’t like it.
@Kathy: @Kathy:
Kathy,
It is outside my area of interest too. I have no stomach for zombie stories or movies though I read one that was free with Amazon Kindle and watched World War Z when it was on cable. The latter is horrifying bad piece of moviemaking and the book not a whole lot better.
Yet I decided to write a LGBT sci-fi fiction story with a zombie apocalypse scene set at Boston Logan Airport. I like writing in different genres with a sci-fi LGBT element. That’s how i end up doing plots involving Zombies, A figure skater training for the Olympics, Dung beetles, A South Korean woman converting to judaism, Japanese gangsters, An expectant mother on hospital pregnancy bedrest, , A American fugitive from the law in Paraguay etc etc.
Trump today:
– Says that Obama and Biden stopped testing for Covid half way in (which didn’t exist until they were out of office 3 years), but the media refuses to report it.
– Repeats the lie that our Covid numbers are increasing because we’re testing more.
– Repeats the lie that we have the lowest mortality in the world (we have the 9th highest mortality rate out of 188 countries).
-Repeats the error that this is the worst pandemic since the 1917 flu pandemic (which was 1918).
Link
@Monala:
I am.
Well, thanks.
So the other thirty seconds:
Marina has two X chromosomes, but her paternal one has an SRY gene. Her counterpart/analog/parallel self has two normal X chromosomes.
@Monala:
Step careful. That was pretty provocative.
If so or not, it is her business. Not yours, definitely not mine.
@Kylopod:
No I am not familiar obviously. When I was in the Navy, I read I Will Fear No Evil and some other book of Heinlein’s but my memory is so shot full of holes due to my cancer battle, I don’t remember the other title or the plots of either book.
@de stijl: I did not intend to offend Kathy. I like to write as well, and to experiment with different genres, and my protagonists are often African-American women because I am one and I like to explore the genre from my perspective (since it’s one that’s not always included). Since trans women protagonists are even rarer in fiction than AA women protagonists, it made sense to me that Kathy might feel the same way. But “why not?” is probably the best answer to that question.
@Monala:
No worries.
You had good intentions.
@OzarkHillbilly: When visiting New Mexico I stopped by a Walmart that had that set-up: huge arrays of solar cells over all the spaces in the parking lot providing electricity to the store while providing shade for the cars. I don’t know why more places don’t do that–especially in places that don’t have to worry about fallen leaves or snow on the panels.
@Monala: There’s a wonderful essay by Janet Kagen about James Schmitz and his tweaking of SF stereotypes; you might enjoy it. Anyone who wants to write good science fiction should memorise it word for word. If you can get your hands on the NSFS (National Science Fiction Society) edition of James Schmitz stories her essay is the introduction to the collection.
@grumpy realist:
It is a brilliant idea.
Shades the cars. Provides power. The tradeoff in maintenance is key.
Some smart person is going to monetize rooftops and roofing over parking lots.
@Joe:
No, they released the commutation order. It’s quite thorough, which can only mean he had nothing to do with drafting it. The entirety of Stone’s sentence, both active and supervised release, as well as fines are wiped.
You can read it here
@Kathy:
I attempted to read the description of what SRY is, and then failed and landed on “genes do all sorts of weird things”.
The story sounds interesting. I have countless false starts to something called “The Trilobite Trilogy” so I have great respect for someone who has an idea and can see it through without being distracted by countless other ideas.
(Also, “Gus and the Enchanted Busboy”. And some very unfortunate Transformers fan fiction, most unfortunate in that it is complete)
So I have some other good news, besides bringing my Dad home this week.
My Mom’s latest scans show she is cancer free.
There’s no celebration emoji I can put on here, but I am celebrating in spirit!
@Jax: hooray.
@Jax:
That’s great news.
@Jax: Wonderful news!
@Monala:
@de stijl:
To be clear, there was no offense and it’s not a problem. In this forum, I am out. Besides, I was talking about a transgender character.
@Kathy:
@Monala:
Monala,
Sorry if I over-reacted. I apologize.