Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
·
Thursday, September 15, 2022
·
79 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter
Christians in the US could be a minority group by 2070, study finds
Plenty more at the link.
An interesting way of saying… TBH, I’m not sure what she’s saying.
He could have saved his money and just quit for all the good it did.
I don’t think you’ll be missed Sergei.
Well done Vlad, very well done.
@OzarkHillbilly:
One thing to keep in mind: A lot of people say their Christian when asked, but never attend church (except for the big three: Hatched, Matched, and Dispatched), don’t follow any actual religious beliefs, and couldn’t tell you the rules of their particular denomination. But… their parents took them to church when they were kids, so… they’re Christian.
An appalling lack of common sense in people never surprises me. Why would an organization dedicated to helping abuse victims hire a level 2 sex offender to work with them?
Vera House did and even though the offender is no longer on their payroll, the fallout from this stupidity continues.
Vera House Director of Advocacy who helped hire sex offender resigns from agency
If you want to read more about this mess, go here.
Personal note- My baby sister worked for Vera House for almost 10 years. They were a great organization in the part of NY state that I live in.
@Mu Yixiao: I suspect there is a meaningful number of church attending Christians who don’t really believe, or maybe only believe in a very nebulous idea of a creator. They go out of habit, because they have friends and family there, it’s a support system, and coming out as a nonbeliever can alienate people. They see benefit in the rituals, but they don’t really take any of it literally.
@OzarkHillbilly: I thought it was pretty clear. There were other suspects but the police decided that Syed was the murderer. But the prosecutors withheld information about the other suspects, which they are not allowed to do. That renders the trial illegitimate, but it doesn’t make Syed automatically innocent.
FWIW, Syed also has a grossly incompetent lawyer.
@Mu Yixiao:
@Reformed Republican:
The Harari Principle: most people don’t believe nor practice the religious tenets they claim to believe and practice.
In politics, religion is like the ultimate argument from authority to short-circuit thought and reason.
Updated: A list of oligarchs and Putin critics found dead since Ukraine war
The latest:
@OzarkHillbilly: @Mu Yixiao: What I find interesting about this projection is that the very question hasn’t received the same attention as the decline in whites, the eventual “majority-minority” status of this country that has been projected to occur some time in the next several decades. This isn’t because the bigots necessarily take less interest in it–Christian nationalism and white nationalism seem to go hand in hand. But religion is generally thought to be a more nebulous category than race. Of course race is more nebulous than it’s often treated in these studies, and one of the criticisms I’ve heard is that the definition of “white” will expand so that the US is still considered majority white by the time the current groups (such as Latinos) grow to that projected point. But with religion, there isn’t even a broadly agreed upon definition of what makes someone Christian now. There’s also the fact that people can choose to enter and leave Christianity, something you cannot do with whiteness (the question of biracial self-identification notwithstanding), which brings the above projection further into question.
More evidence the accusations are actually confessions. More right wing voter fraud.
Lawsuit alleges Texas’ True the Vote hacked data and targeted small election vendor with racist, defamatory campaign
Failed Congressional candidate Lavern Spicer (2020 Republican nominee for FL-24, a strongly Democratic district, who unsuccessfully sought the nomination again this year), is currently getting roasted for this tweet:
Lavern Spicer
@lavern_spicer
Stop teaching kids pronouns and start teaching them grammar!
8:49 AM · Sep 13, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
…and this one:
Lavern Spicer
@lavern_spicer
You will never catch me using pronouns.
3:13 PM · Sep 14, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
@OzarkHillbilly:
Kelly to Trump:
@Kylopod:
Maybe she went to Reynold’s “Pronouns for Authors” TED talk and had a religious experience…
I kid! I kid!
@Scott:
I figure people will choose to do that anyway.
@Scott:
To be fair, lots of people would do that even if Benito had done what Kelly asked.
Not me, though. That’s vulgar.
I’d bring some dogs and let them be dogs on the best headstone ever.
Pence just came out with: yeah, the next GOP POTUS, whoever it is, will go for a national abortion ban.
So much for leaving things up to the states.
@grumpy realist: And this is surprising how??
@Mu Yixiao:..One thing to keep in mind: A lot of people say their Christian when asked, but never attend church (except for the big three: Hatched, Matched, and Dispatched), don’t follow any actual religious beliefs, and couldn’t tell you the rules of their particular denomination. But… their parents took them to church when they were kids, so… they’re Christian.
So how many times does a person have to attend church to be a Mu Yixiao Certified Christian?
I have known Catholics who attend mass every day. Are they more christian than those who attend Saturday night or Sunday?
When anyone tells me that they are christian, I do not argue with them and tell them that they are not.
@Mister Bluster:
WTF, dude? Who pissed in your Wheaties this morning?
It has zero to do with me, and it makes zero judgements. It’s simply a note on how people answer surveys.
ABC News survey shows weekly attendance by self-defined Christians:
Given the attitudes among progressives regarding those who claim to be religious, it’s important to remember that not all of them are evangelicals, and quite a few of them aren’t even practicing.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Translate it to “this office committed a pretty glaring Brady violation, but we don’t want to come out and just bluntly admit that, so we are couching it in doublespeak instead”.
It’s doubly ironic when you stop to consider that Brady exists in the first place because of another Maryland case from right next door in Anne Arundel.
The name of the Judge in this case gave me a solid chuckle.
https://legalnewsline.com/stories/631655779-ricola-must-fight-class-action-as-two-claims-over-swiss-herbs-proceed
@Scott:
It’s only surprising in how blindly stupid they are.
Like, how dumb is he? Does he not realized that they just forcibly pulled a ton of people off the sidelines with Dobbs? Wait till people like my Sister-in-law get denied their meds and have to endure a couple of months of unmitigated arthritis pain. They won’t be happy to vote Republican then.
This is the problem with resolutely believing that GOD! is on your side.
@Scott: I’m dumping used cat litter on his grave. That way he’ll always have the pleasure of visiting with the local feral cats.
@Mu Yixiao: Ask a certain co-hort of Christians if Catholics are Christian and they will answer with a most emphatic, “NO!”
@Beth: First of all it should be clear that it’s possible to be politically shrewd and push cruel, harmful policies. Republicans have been doing that for decades. Pence has long gotten by substituting a sanctimoniously “concerned” expression for any actual empathy. But it’s striking how out of step he is with the current political environment, both within and outside the party. He’s a prime example of a politician high in his own farts.
@Kathy: Avoidance of difficult thoughts can make life easy and people happy. Or, said another way, ignorance is bliss. Can you blame them?
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1570029102882787329
Click the link to see the reference. The link is a long thread, too.
https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1569555906555428865
@Beth: Your a lawyer, I has a question:
How is it a class action suit filed against Ricola alleging a breach of a state law is being heard in a federal court?
@Beth: He said “enthusiasm”, not numbers. He’s stating standard GOP electoral theory. What Rove said, they’re all turnout elections now.
Their only path to victory is high turn out by outraged minority. They believe MAGA enthusiasm will outvote D numbers. Sadly, they’re often right. Mostly, though, they avoid saying that out loud. It’s kind of dumb to say it publicly. Which makes it unsurprising it was Pence who said it.
Next thing you know he’ll admit (as one of the dumber spear carriers does now and again) that it’s all about God implanting the soul at conception. (God is a voyeur?) They avoid saying that because it makes the whole thing clearly about religious belief and on the wrong side of church/state. Meanwhile, the Supremes are working to erase that line.
@OzarkHillbilly: Try this on for size: “Prosecutorial misconduct? On the record, I’m not going to talk about this.”
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1568692855258103808
At Stalingrad, the 6th Army (Wehrmacht) needed to retreat but Hitler would permit “not one inch back.” Putin has a similar personality as Hitler, same attitude towards acknowledging setbacks. Kherson is Putin’s “Stalingrad.” Extending the WW2 analogy, Kharkiv is “The Destruction of Army Group Center.”
@OzarkHillbilly: to a president he came to consider a pathological liar whose inflated ego was in fact the sign of a deeply insecure person.” [emphasis added]
Came to consider? This from a supposed “smartest guy in the room”-type? I realize that military duty tends to culturally isolate a person, but come on now. 🙁
@OzarkHillbilly: Because it’s a class action claim, which is federal law.
what wins in a state vs. federal court jurisdiction battle depends on the issue getting argued about. For instant, a contract dispute involving patents isn’t going to end up in federal court (unless diversity arguments, cough) even though patents are a federal thing. Because contracts are state law.
A question for JohnSF when he shows up here:
Do you think Boris Johnson will bestir himself to comb his hair for the queen’s funeral?
@OzarkHillbilly:
Federal jurisdiction can be complicated, but one way it could have ended up there is that it was initially filed in IL state court and the removed to Federal court based on diversity jurisdiction. The Federal courts still apply state law for the state they sit in as long as it’s not superseded by a Federal law.
I do my level best to stay out of Federal Court. I don’t have the resources or the brain power to deal with their nonsense.
@Mu Yixiao: Because of this, and ”seasonal” Christians (Christmas and/or Easter), I’ve contended that Christianity is a minority cultural phenomenon for a long time. Especially in the wake of the rise in political evangelicals, who may know even less about Christianity than the “hatched, matched, dispatched” cohort.
@Mu Yixiao: (Didn’t bother looking for an edit) And most of them were SENT to church, not TAKEN there.
@Mu Yixiao: I am often reminded of the Pragmatist principle and rule: Don’t confuse the thing with the word. And a thing is what it does. In the survey “Christian” is defined by saying one is a Christian. I expect there are words in there to the effect of self-identified. For Evangelicals Christian means “bathed in the blood of the lamb”, whatever the hell that means. To my Lutheran brother, the late Reverend, I think it meant de jure anyone professing the faith, de facto, anyone participating, even the revolving door – in at Christmas, out at Easter. To the Christian nationalists it means having been born into Christian culture. They count poor old ignostic me in their tribe. For Jerry Falwell it was defined by putting dollars in his coffers. I could go on.
The meaning is entirely context dependent.
@gVOR08:
Pence wasn’t talking about MAGA enthusiasm broadly. Nobody disputes that’s real, and it’s hardly something that works to Pence’s advantage (they hate him). He was talking about the enthusiasm of anti-abortion voters. That’s what comes off so tone-deaf. Even putting aside all the signs that this issue is working to the Dems’ advantage, I’m not even convinced this is a prime issue motivating most Republican voters right now. Off the top of my head, I’d say immigrants, trans people, and the feds persecuting their dear leader, are far more potent motivators.
@OzarkHillbilly:
In a addition to this surprisingly blunt “hands to yourself, buddy” message from Xi to Putin re. Kazakhstan, there’s also the attacks on Armenian border positions by Azerbaijan.
As the Azeris are aligned with Turkey, this is probably a indication that Erdogan also thinks Russian power in the Caucasus and Central Asia is waning.
@CSK:
I would hope that he’d make the effort.
Or more likely, Carrie will do it for him.
But with Johnson, you never know.
He actually seemed to have tidied it a bit in advance, judging by the pics, when he gave a brief speech outside No. 10. last Thursday.
But the ruffling his own hair thing seems to have gone from being an artful gesture to a habit.
He seems to do it now without even noticing he’s doing it.
I just hope that Monday is the last we see of him for some time.
Or at least, until he gets hauled up before the Privileges Committee.
That I am going to enjoy. 🙂
@Franklin:
I can, but only because I worship learning.
I understand most people do not.
@JohnSF:
As in-your-face gestures go, this one is monumentally silly.
@charon:
I’ve been thinking more Verdun, but with the attrition more one sided. But Stalingrad is good, down to the rivers. But the roles and directions are flipped. The Volga helped the Germans, the Dnieper favors the Ukrainian counterattack.
I think the “two direction” thing is very right. The line is a thousand kilometers long. (Maybe a bit less this week.) The Russians can’t defend it all strongly. They had to risk weakening around Kharkiv to strengthen Kherson. . And every vehicle and body they put in and around the city of Kherson is on the wrong side of the river. I’ll be interesting to see if the Ukrainians continue attacking around Kharkiv, take a break, or find another second direction
@charon: If you have time, check out this podcast with Lt Gen Mark Hertling on Russian and Ukrainian respective Armed Forces. Good background and insight.
General Mark Hertling: Russia’s Awful Army
@OzarkHillbilly:
To be fair, some Catholics of the more hardcore traditionalist persuasions can sometimes mutter similar sentiments regarding Protestants.
And there’s an Anglican clerrgyman of my aquaintance who was not entirely joking when he remarked of American dominionist evangelicals:
“Heretics and lunatics.”
@Beth: I got an LOL out of it. Thanks!
@OzarkHillbilly: Yeah. I’ve been in one of those cohorts.
@CSK: And risk not being recognized? Somehow, I suspect not, but I could be wrong. We’ll have to check the red-carpet pictures later.
@charon:
Another thread on similar lines: an entrenched Russian Army culture of unit officers lying to higher command.
And the pattern multiplying as information goes up the chain.
I suspect high command has a very partial picture of actual operational situations and outcomes.
And then wish-fulfilment orders from Putin or Shoigu or whoever, based on unreality, travel back down.
Also seen reporting that Russian units have systemic difficulty in co-ordination.
Where NATO formations would talk direct to each other, Russians have to relay everything up and down to whatever point two (or more) units chains of command converge.
And the false reporting, habitual pretence, and the culture of glorifying and emulating the WW2 Red Army has also skewed their entire training and exercise practice.
Alexander Clarkson of King’s College:
At times they seem genuinely shocked that the Ukrainians have the damned cheek and effrontery not to stick to their role in the Russian script.
@Scott:
I check Hertling’s twitter at least daily, maybe more, so I have read some threads on that sort of stuff. I never listen to podcasts, I just lack the patience.
Lots of good twitter feeds on Ukraine, here are a couple:
https://twitter.com/RALee85
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer
@charon:
Also:
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron
@charon: Thanks, I check some out periodically but since I deleted my Twitter account (for mental health reasons), I don’t follow too closely.
@gVOR08:
Sloppily eating a very juicy gyro?
@charon:
Another thread on similar lines; this one of the entrenched practice of unit commanders lying to superiors about situations, operations and outcomes.
And the process multiplying up the chain.
I wonder how adrift from reality reporting is by the time it gets to Moscow?
Also other accounts that Russian Army often has great difficulty in force co-ordination.
Where NATO formations would talk direct to each other, Russian ones often require decisions and communications relayed up to the point unit chains of command intersect.
And another aspect: the culture of pretence, and the idolization of the WW2 Red Army, has also permeated training and exercises.
With bad effects on operational behaviour.
Alexander Clarkson of King’s College:
At times some Russians seem genuinely shocked, that Ukraine has the sheer cheek and effrontery not to play the part assigned to them in the Russian script.
@JohnSF:
I’m kind of hoping that the extra r in clerrgyman was intentional, and that it’s like Riot Grrls, but clergy. An in-your-face, punk, feminist, political clergy that’s just fed up with everyone’s shit, and would scream “what part of ‘love thy neighbor’ did you not fucking understand? I see a lot of you shitheads casting the first stone!”
@Gustopher:
Or he might have been very Scottish?
But, nope.
Just my hopeless typing, 🙂
Though he did once admit a fondness for The Clash, and dub reggae, so you never know.
Also actually has been known to say “And what part of loving your neighbour as yourself is so difficult to understand?” LOL
@grumpy realist: @Beth: Thanx guys. That’s as clear as mud but enough for this handicapped caver who got quite used to looking thru mud.
@JohnSF: That came up in the article as well, tho it did not mention Erdogan, just that the Azerbaijanis are probably thinking Russia has enough problems on their hands just now.
@JohnSF: For certain.
I did NOT have “A wrecked semi load of dildos” on my bingo card.
@OzarkHillbilly:
That driver looks pretty boned.
Meanwhile, as various analysts have been reporting, the Russian economy is flourishing, the ruble is strong, Moscow commands massive oil revenues, and …. what?
Oh.
Oh dear….
That’s 10% nominal; given real inflation estimate, probably more in the region of 30% actual.
As Toth-Czifra points it, it’s yet another example of Russian leadership taking a short-term decision, and failing consider obvious longer-term issues if everything didn’t go according to its wildly over-optimistic plans.
(Maybe they hired Rumsfeld as a consultant 🙁 )
@Mu Yixiao:
But wouldn’t that be “splattered with the fat of the lamb”?
@OzarkHillbilly:
Stirring a media buzz, but the OKC highway workers are a well-oiled machine and should have it cleaned up soon.
@Beth: Oooofff… If there’s a hell….
@dazedandconfused: If there is a hell, you are heading there too.
@Stormy Dragon: snickersnicker…
@OzarkHillbilly:
You want Beth and Dazed to suffer eternal pun-ishment?
@OzarkHillbilly:
It’s worse than you think. Only the God Of Edit saved that from being “…have it well in hand.”
@Stormy Dragon:
Beautiful!
Some what random, but does anyone know how to get your name and email to auto populate in the comment login here? Particularly on an iPhone? I accidentally sent a comment into moderation cause I’m tired and misspelled my email.
Also, in the fart dressing to the shit salad of a week I’m having: I broke a nail. I’m sure most of the guys here are like so what. Well, this was a “Gel-X” nail, which is basically a plastic nail UV epoxied to my regular nail. Now instead of a pretty nail, I have a thick, razor sharp shard semi-permanently glued to my thumb.
@Beth: I don’t know how to MAKE the site do it, I just get auto complete suggestions at almost every situation where I click on fill ins on both my computer and my phone (less frequent as I use my phone most for telephone and texting). Look in your “preferences” (or whatever it’s called) file to see if you rejected autofil by mistake. (No, I can’t help you find it. I don’t even know where mine is and have only stumbled across it by accident.)
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
well, still can’t get it to work on the phone, but you did help me fix some other problems with the phone while I was trying to fix that one. So thank you.
For all the people who have seen Judge Cannon’s decision, let me just say that tomorrow I do plan to write a “I was wrong” post.
Please keep your powder dry until then…. Or, heck, it’s an infinite supply online so you be you!