Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, July 13, 2023
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67 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Mom, Dad, OK if I come home to visit for a couple of days?
Sure hon!
Great! Oh, and BTW would you mind when I leave getting up at 3:30 AM to get me to the train station by 4:45 AM?
Of course not. Parents live to serve.
Steve
@steve:
This is my parents with their Gen Z grandkids.
With their Gen X kids (and with me the millennial accident and my adopted brother):
“You can call an Uber, can’t you?”
wtf with the double standard, but okay.
@steve: @DK: Now that my sons are raised, I no longer have to worry about setting bad precedents or spoiling them or anything else (I didn’t do a perfect job of parenting, but it’s not my problem anymore) So I am far more amenable to doing damned near anything for them. If my eldest calls to ask if I want to go floating or a ballgame or whatever, my answer is always yes. Going down to NOLA to see my youngest is a must do every March and when he visits in the summer everything else is put on hold. At my age every opportunity to spend time with them is gold.
My granddaughters… It’s my job to spoil them rotten. Right???
@OzarkHillbilly:
Apparently so. Watching my parents with their grandchildren is endlessly astonishing. It’s shocking. I’m like, “Where are my parents, and what did you two pushovers do with them?” lol
Doing my civic duty today, sitting in the jury selection room in the downtown Baltimore courthouse, with my $30 reimbursement burning a hole in my pocket. Have to admit, I’m hoping I don’t get a case…
@MarkedMan:
If it’s a large jury pool, the odds are in your favor.
@MarkedMan:
The last time I had Jury Duty I made it all the way to an interview for a specific case. I simply told them I had already made up my mind, that it was a slip-and-fall scam. And out the door and home I went.
The Hollywood actors are ready to join the writers in going on strike. The SAG-AFTRA television/theatrical/streaming contracts expired as of 11:59 p.m. last night.
@CSK: Will that do anything to help the writers?
@MarkedMan: $30? In San Antonio, it is $6 for 1st day. With option to donate to a variety of charities. After selection, the amount goes up to $40 per day.
This is interesting reading.
https://www.justsecurity.org/87236/trump-on-trial-a-model-prosecution-memo-for-federal-election-interference-crimes/
I’ve seen a number of people predicting that Jack Smith is going to indict soon.
@MarkedMan:
WR would know much more about that than I do, but the writers are saying that they’re in solidarity with the actors.
@MarkedMan: Homer Simpson on how he beat jury duty:
“The trick is to say you’re prejudiced against all races.”
@Daryl: The one and only time I received a summons for jury duty I had just moved out of the county. I called them and told them and they said, “OK, thanx for letting us now. You can forget about it.
I got into the jury box once, but the defense attorney took one look at me and screamed “Challenge” at the top of her lungs. The prosecutor looked as if he’d been stabbed in the heart.
It seemed like a pretty straightforward case. Some moron had been caught trying to peddle drugs on an elementary school playground at recess. He was nabbed by three teachers and two cops who happened to be passing by the school on routine patrol. He should have copped a plea.
I don’t know whether St. Elon Cisgender Mars God Phobos Emperor is crying out “I can do AI! Look at ME!!” or striking an Andy Kaufman pose of “Here I come to save the daaay!”
I think he’s going to pirate the ChatGPT code and slap an $8 price tag on it.
@CSK: I guess that “Kill ’em all and let God sort ’em out” t-shirt came in handy after all.
@Daryl: I served on a federal grand jury for 18 months not too long ago. I made a half-hearted attempt to get out of it, but after watching the judge deny everyone, including a person who was the only caregiver for her Alzheimer’s afflicted mom, I thought better of it. The only person that got off was a guy who had papers proving he was moving out of the jurisdiction.
We only met once a month and sometimes not at all. It paid 40 bucks, but only if you were seated. You didn’t find out if the jury was indicting that month until the night before the assigned date.
Almost all the cases were “felon with a gun”. Occasionally we had “felon with a bullet”. Several day care fraud cases and one very disturbing child pornography case. Overall, pretty depressing.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Yeah, that and my “They’ll Take My Gun from Me When They Pry It from My Cold, Dead Fingers” baseball cap.
Also, she didn’t seem to care for me picking my teeth and cleaning my nails with a shiv. Strange.
A “pupdate” for all of the kind souls who commented: her ultrasound showed no mass on her liver, in fact nothing out of the ordinary at all in her abdominal cavity. So, no real explanation for the elevated liver values, but for now it does not appear to be a recurrence of her cancer (YAY!), so we’re trying some meds and hoping that sorts it all out.
I didn’t realize how stressed I was about this until I got the call yesterday and felt light-headed from relief.
@Jen:
I’m delighted for you. What a relief. Give her a scratch behind the ears for me.
Regarding the writers (and now actors) strike: Someone quoted a management type the other day saying something like “well, we’re going to wait until they start losing their apartments and houses”.
It got me to wondering, though. Writers have other ways of making money besides working for the Man. Even more so than actors, probably. And I don’t mean waiting tables, though that’s a thing. I don’t know how this will play out, just kind of thinking how people always like to show themselves strong, maybe stronger than they really are.
Families of the victims of the Buffalo gun massacre, have filed a lawsuit against several social media companies, as well as a few others.
The lawsuit claims the social media companies “.. bear responsibility for radicalizing the Buffalo supermarket shooter, who was fueled by racist conspiracy theories he encountered online..”
I think that as a question of fact, this is likely correct and can be proven in court. So the outcome will be decided by questions of law.
I imagine this is not the first lawsuit to make such claims, not even the first involving a second amendment massacre. So there must already be rulings about the matter.
Maybe we’ll see. Chances are absent a spectacular trial some month sor years from now, we won’t hear much about it.
I have been on several jury pools, which I’m not keen about, and for some reason I always get selected for jury duty, even for a drunk driving case after revealing that when I was a teenager my father was killed in an auto accident involving a drunk driver.
And then I got a summons for Federal court in Seattle. I contacted the jury manager and said that commuting from Whidbey Island to downtown Seattle was unrealistic and undoable. He replied that they would put me up in a downtown hotel. Okay. And then I learned that the only case on the docket was the trial of The Barefoot Bandit. Being from the area where he was initially pretty active and that I always get selected, I thought, yeah, that could be pretty interesting. But he copped a plea (not really any defense anyway) and I was excused.
I got another summons last summer, but thankfully didn’t have to appear since there were no cases pending.
@Jen: So happy for you and your girl! I’ve been thinking about ya’ll. Wanted to let you know your words of encouragement about Sadie really helped. We are passing the three month mark and she is an official member of the family now and much loved. Really glad we took your advice and gave her the time she deserved. Thank you.
@Kathy:
But that’s the entire point of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996. In part it provides immunity from liability for providers of Social Media services.
Dr. Joyner cannot be held liable for anything stupid we happen to post that inspires any other idiot to do anything stupid.
Most responsible media companies have terms of service agreements meant to temper the worst, but then you have morons like Musk who consider the most hateful rhetoric to be “free-speech.”
I have been a registered voter since I turned 18 in all four of the states I have lived in (MI, OH, GA, SC). Always had a valid drivers licenses in evert state I’ve lived in. Not one time have I ever gotten a jury duty notice. Never. My Dad got them all the time, ditto my Mother.
I don’t know if I’m just lucky or what but it seems improbable to never have gotten one.
On lighter topics, I banged the inside lower part of my right writs (just under the thumb) against a banister at work the other day. It didn’t hurt much, but some time later a bump had formed, and then the whole wrist and hand hurt a lot when performing many kinds of actions.
I did see a doctor, over video chat on the phone. He said it will resolve on its own after a week or so, and prescribed aspirin or ibuprofen and ice to reduce the swelling. If it persists afer two weeks, he said I should come see him and he’d drain it with a needle.
Two days later, the bump can still be seen, but the pain is mostly gone. Not just some time after taking Advil, but hours later, too. And that’s good, because I don’t think I could have cooked through so much pain. In particular, I don’t think I would have managed to hold a knife and do the necessary chopping that is the basis of all cooking.
Just the same, I figured on something easy with minimal prep and washing afterwards. that’s no longer required, but I had a thought I want to pursue now.
First, oven baked chicken milanesas with oven roasted potatoes.
On the side I want to try a minor brainstorm I figure will turn out badly: rice carbonara.
I’ve done spaghetti carbonara, and fettuccine as well, several times. Not always with bacon or pancetta, but with some other kind of meat and lots of black pepper.
This time I want poblano strips and onions. The question is how will that go after adding the sauce of eggs and parmesan.
On even lighter things, my work laptop, which I still haven’t used to replace my desktop, is maybe getting Windows 11. It’s the perfect choice. I have the desktop still, and if it really sucks, I know to avoid it ot look for a mod app for it for my next home desktop (which is having a few minor issues by now).
@CSK: I was called for jury duty 3 times early in my move to Longview to teach at the local community college. As soon as prosecutors and defense attorneys found out that I taught composition there, they agreed that they didn’t want me on their juries all 3 times. I’m 3 for 3 in “out in the first cut.”
ETA: @Scott: @MarkedMan: Forgot to mention, in Cowlitz County, only jurors get compensated. Candidates appear as a “civic duty” and get only the balance of their day when sent home.
@CSK: What was it about you that caused such a dramatic reaction? Did she know you from a past life and under traumatizing circumstances? Do you bear a passing resemblance to Charles Manson? Ted Kaczynsky? Don Corleone?
@Rick DeMent: I’m 62 and have lived all but 6 years in these United States and this is only the second time I’ve ever been part of a jury pool. I suppose it’s because I move a lot. I suspect even a change of address within a court district resets the notification. But now I live in Baltimore and I’m told I’ll get called every year. Didn’t get called the first year, which seems to be normal everywhere, got called the second but then COVID hit so everyone was blanket excused. The courts were slow to resume but are now in full blast
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
I think it was that I had briefly consulted to the Massachusetts Criminal Justice Training Council.
@Kathy: I woulldn’t think it would turn out badly. In its other life, “rice carbonara” is sometimes called “risoto.” Using arborio rice (if you have any) will suit the sauce you’re making better though. A Calrose/Japonica rice would be my second choice but would need to be washed aggressively.
For those of you who disagreed that the 303Creative v. Elenis SCOTUS ruling was going to lead to de facto discrimination…the line for apologies forms to the left.
https://www.texastribune.org/2023/07/12/texas-judge-gay-weddings-supreme-court/
@CSK: Yeah. That could have an effect. 😉
@Scott: I was summoned to jury duty several times in Texas and never got paid once 🙁 Super great to spend all morning and afternoon sitting in a room doing nothing. Not like I desperately needed money to live that day or anything…..
Moved several states over and I was summoned within 3 months of changing my license.
EDIT : Hell I was summoned for jury duty in the state I moved out of 2 YEARS after I had moved to Texas. I even surrendered my license and voter registration etc. When I contacted my former state about the summons they demanded a whole bunch of documents to prove I wasn’t living there.
@Matt:
They probably couldn’t believe anyone would actually move to Texas…or Florida for that matter.
@Daryl:
My contention is that section 230 applies to web hosts, and perhaps to comments sections like this one. Social media is not the same thing, because they do exercise editorial function.
If social media were like OTB, there would be no recommendations to follow this or that person or group, much less regardless of what that person or group have to say. The problem isn’t that Fakebook or Elon’s Folly allow, for instance, radical white supremacy terrorist groups to post, but that they suggest and encourage others to follow and join them.
Even if you merely look for such groups, you’ll get posts, videos, tweets, etc. on your feed for days, encouraging engagement.
All that constitutes an editorial function. Therefore, social media should be regarded as publishers, even if they neither produce nor specifically commission the content. Contrast this with a web host, even Amazon Web Services, which merely collects a fee for server space and bandwidth. They don’t promote whoever hires them, nor recommend them to anyone.
@CSK: “WR would know much more about that than I do, but the writers are saying that they’re in solidarity with the actors.”
Yes, it’s huge. It shuts down the entire industry.
That said, it’s not going to bring a quick end to the strike. Studio heads have been quoted (anonymously) saying that they plan not to negotiate until writers start losing their houses and cars so that they can finally break the Hollywood unions. (Presumably someone has forwarded that article to the labor department…)
Adding the actors injects a whole new source of anger and energy. And God bless Bob Iger, who decided to help strikers’ morale today by giving at interview at Billionaire Day Camp in which he chided the writers and actors for making irresponsible demands, the day after it was announced he’d make 27 million this year. As one commenter put it, the average writer makes $69k per year; Iger makes $74k per day.
@Kathy:
You should get a second opinion or perhaps go to an urgent care. It should be x-rayed for a possible cracked bone.
Many years ago I fell and hurt a wrist, went to a clinic. They looked at it, sent me home. Later that evening they phoned me, had taken a closer look at the x-ray and saw a crack, had me come back to get it casted.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1679528651090710528
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/13/investigation-2020-election-results-arizona-trump/
https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1679533170985689116
https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1679545635949649926
@charontwo:
Alotofpeoplesay he has the best indictments. And more than anyone else, manypeoplesaythat.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Risotto is more about extracting all the starch into a fluid, which you force to evaporate anyway. Or that’s how it felt the times I’ve made it.
Carbonara, in contrast, cooks the sauce quickly and off the heat. I think the trick will be to still have some of the water the rice is cooking in, but not too much.
If it works, I may try coconut rice carbonara next.
What is wrong with these people?!
https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1679276733420142598
@Kathy:
I would agree, but the courts traditionally have not.
Partly, I expect, the judges do not understand what the recommendation algorithms are doing, plus a belief that computers cannot understand the content of what they are pushing so it must be neutral because a computer did it.
It’s a tough nut to crack, and I wish these lawyers the best luck at figuring out the right nutcracker.
I’m kind of hoping that a fundamental misunderstanding of ChatGPT will lead to an accidental correct belief that computers can be made to recognize toxic content.
@CSK: Some people are just so sensitive.
@wr:
Sure. But it’s the value that Iger adds* that makes him so well compensated, right? Isn’t that what Capitalism 101 teaches us?
*And I assume that part of that value is that he’s able to employ writers using such a microscopic slice of the whole pie, correct?
A slow coup seems to be going on in Guatemala.
@Gustopher:
It may be the algorithms don’t understand content, and they are neutral in that respect.
As far as I’m concerned, this only makes it worse. Consider, the software treats hate groups and misinformation groups the same as groups of fans of Babylon 5 or collectors of Little Lulu comics.
I’m positive the algorithms can identify content. If they can, then it should be possible to NOT recommend toxic content. It might not be easy, but it looks they don’t really try very hard.
It may be worth suing the various radical groups on social media. they are definitely not covered by section 230.
@charontwo: I love the second part here:
Nick Adams (Alpha Male)
Ummmm Sorry Nick. If you have to tell people, it’s because you aren’t.
@MarkedMan:
Yeah, I’m 63, I only spent a little over 3 years in Ohio and South Carolina, and 7 years in GA, But even in Michigan I have never got one. And I’m getting a little like “What am I? Chopped liver?”.
I have lived in the same county in CA since 1991. I have been called in to the courthouse for “jury duty” exactly once. I sat in the courtroom, filled out a form, and listened while other people were questioned for jury selection. I was never called. The case was “driving while license suspended”.
A few other times I was in the “call this number every evening for a week” pool. But I have had no interaction at all for at least 15 years, it might be 20. I would kind of like to serve on a jury, actually. I think it would be interesting, maybe in a serious way, or maybe in a “wow, I can’t believe this guy” way.
@Kathy:
Yes and no. And I’m a few years behind in this, so things may have fundamentally changed.
The machine learning is great at categorizing things, and discovering categories, but not at knowing what those categories are.
There will be a pro Andrew Tate category (closely related to an anti Andrew state category), and there will be strong correlations with viewer patterns between the pro Andrew Tate category and something about cars, and something about antivax and something about Jordan Peterson, hatred of women, guns are silly toys (there would be 80 gun categories), Star Wars Kathleen Kennedy Hate, etc.
From engagement patterns, you would be able to tell what gets a rabid contentious following — it performs better by a lot of metrics. And then there’s tone, which machine learning has gotten way better at identifying.
(In contrast, the Babylon 5 category has a small, regular, repeated following of 50 year olds with disposable income and well defined nerdy interests… don’t think that’s nothing, there are advertisers who love that)
But at some point you need a human to look at it and say “ick.”
You can infer ickiness from related categories, but you at least have to start seeding by hand, and then do spot checks so you know you aren’t going off the rails. And you can do extra checks on arising, well-performing, aggressive-toned categories.
But, you get the amorality of the automated categorization with the bias of the humans rating key categories, and a tension in hostile tone and stickiness-plus-growth (resolving that tension is going to involve humans making decisions)
And then there is assigning reputation scores to content producers. NPR and Andrew Tate will have very different reputations, so you might be more comfortable promoting an NPR video about teenage pregnancy than an Andrew state video on the same subject.
This is all very doable. In fact, it’s done for advertising purposes (there are brands that do not want to advertise on Nazi content, or any risky content)
I would be willing to bet that the people who are radicalized on social media see fewer ads for Pepsi products (or Apple, etc)
@Gustopher:
Sure. You can’t leave it all up to the machines. That’s why despite a great deal of automation, humans still fly commercial planes (really!)
But if Fakebook can identify harmful far right content for its advertisers, surely it can do the same for it users. So let the nazis have a space, but don’t promote them, even to other nazis. Let them find themselves and troll for recruits without help.
@wr: Ug the strikes aren’t actually linked, right? The actors could settle next week and leave the writers exactly where they were at. Or am I misunderstanding?
I have been called for jury duty several times over the years. One call was to sit on a Grand Jury. I remember that was in 1989 only because after the last session I went to the Ford dealer and picked up a new F-150. I was called in the early 2000’s and was interviewed along with several others. The Judge told us that if we knew any of the people associated with the case, defendant, attorneys or His Honor we should mention that during the questioning. As the lawyers asked prospective jurors their names and occupations I noticed that the Judge was making notes and looking down at his papers as questions were answered. When it was my turn to be interviewed I looked right at the Judge and mentioned that some 30 years earlier I had worked for his father who owned the local Yellow Cab franchise as a driver and that I was sure that I had seen His Honor at the cab stand when he would stop by and visit. He sat up from his notes and looked right at me. When there was a break and I was in the hallway the Judge walked right over to me and shook my hand and told me about the great memories he had of hanging out with the drivers at the cab stand. We each mentioned names of drivers and dispatchers that we knew. It was a brief exchange but I knew then that I wouldn’t have to hear any of his cases. Sure enough when we went back in to the court room I was one of the first to be excused.
ETA: Just noticed that I misspelled my pseudonym in the header but the comment posted. No way to fix that.
@MarkedMan: If they follow Ronnie’s rules the writers are f’d. If however they tell the ghost of RR to fuck himself, the studios are fucked. It might cost the SAG some money but nothing that can’t be absolved in negotiations.
So, I got Win11 installed on my work laptop.
There are two problems, thus far. One is the two BLUESCREEN programs (used for really important things like reimbursement requests), seem to be experiencing difficulties. If that’s the case (I’ve yet to try them), then maybe I won’t be able to use the laptop to replace the desktop, for now.
The other is even more vexing. I couldn’t find a way to never combine taskbar buttons.
I’d be ok with problems in the BLUESCREEN programs, even if it meant asking for an additional Win10 laptop for that purpose. Besides, these programs are from Oracle. Surely there’s some solution or there will be one.
But having tiny taskbar buttons I cannot readily identify, not even know how many instances of Word or Excel are even open, is a deal breaker. I know a lot of people have gotten used to just that since Win7. I simply won’t. I keep lots of stuff open, and switch between them often, sometimes several times in one minute when I’m copying from one file to paste in another (sometimes from two files to another). I depend on being able to know where which one is at all times. Having to hit them with the pointer, waiting an instant for them to pop-up the labeled miniatures of what each is, and having to identify them then, would drive me up the wall.
Other things, like moving the start menu to the left, banishing permanent buttons from the taskbar, getting rid of the search box, were easy to do.
One thing I found odd. In the apps displayed on START, there were icons for Instagram, Spotify, messenger (Meta), as well as Amazon Prime Video and Netflix. I asked the IT guy why we didn’t get the pro version, which is more oriented towards business than leisure. He said we did get the pro, and it came with social media and streaming services.
Ok. Social media can be part of a business. But then why not Elon’s Folly and Fakebook?
@wr:
Proud of SAG for standing with WGA, and WTF is with the DGA? The directors look like weasels.
I just canceled our Disney+. In all honestly not a big loss to us, I barely even peek in at Disney+. But I cost them a C note. Netflix? Don’t ask. Baby steps.
On a personal note of greed, thank God we sold our LA house in June.
Jury duty- I have been a bad boy. Since 2010 I have gotten at least three jury summons and haven’t appeared once.
Since 2007 I have had an ongoing cancer battle and frankly from 2009 to 2015, I was in no condition to go ten miles up the road and sit at the county courthouse. Another thing, I was supposed to not be driving either. Me blacking out or getting faint were a regular occurrence at my house.
From April 2015 to now I’ve been lucky to only need hospitalization twice. Compared to a couple of dozen times between 2010 and 13. I’ve lost count. While I have been stronger than I was in my bad years, plus I drive again, I can’t be ever counted on for a day of activity. When I need to lay down, I need to do it not wait a few hours. Falling down is what may happen and has happened.
Anyway my mind is affecting my writing. My latest effort has more garbled sentences than my editors can recall seeing in any of my work for them. Much worse than my once writing ‘The man walked on board the elephant’. My speech is sometimes garbled too. I’m alive but jury duty is a no go.
@Rick DeMent: I’m 60 years old, and have been a registered voter since I was 18. I have been summoned for jury duty exactly once — and was not selected.
I have friends who have been on juries 5 or 6 times. My mother was on a jury. (Boy, did the defense not get what they were expecting…) I don’t get it.
@Bill Jempty: I read your story about Daniel and your Dear Wife. Biggest of hugs to the both of you. I know it’s a long time ago, but the pain never eases.
@MarkedMan: “Ug the strikes aren’t actually linked, right? The actors could settle next week and leave the writers exactly where they were at. Or am I misunderstanding?”
No, that’s right. And there are some issues that pertain only to one union and not the other. So technically the AMPTP could give the actors what they want in hopes of pressuring the writers.
But that would be a high-cost, low-reward play for the studios, since it would only allow them to finish shooting whatever was in progress or ready to go.
And it won’t bring them any closer to the studios’ — especially the streamers’ — real goal: to destroy the unions for once and for all.
@Michael Reynolds: “WTF is with the DGA? The directors look like weasels”
Well, they usually do… But the real trouble with the DGA is that it represents a vast constituency of workers who have very little in common when it comes to their needs. We read Directors Guild and we think of Spielberg and James Cameron. But the vast majority of the membership is below the line — ADs and stage managers and floor directors and many others who don’t get residuals, don’t care about who gets final cut but who have issues surrounding work and pay that don’t mean anything to the actual directors. So it’s really hard to achieve any kind of solidarity.
There are huge class differentials among the writers and the actors. But every rich and successful writer or actor started out broke and struggling, and they (most of them) remember what that was like. And rich or poor, they all know that the AMPTP wants to reduce them to gig workers. So it’s a lot easier to hang together.
@Kathy: Taskbar settings (right click empty taskbar) under taskbar behaviors there is an option to “NEVER” group/combine taskbar buttons. You can also unhide labels etc.
Removing the grouping/combining of taskbar buttons is one of the first things I do on a fresh install of windows (for PCs I plan to use). Being a power user I almost always have multiple windows open at a time and the process you described quickly annoys me.
@Matt:
Apparently not in the build (version?) I had installed.