Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, May 23, 2024
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44 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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The headline of the day- American Airlines blames 9-year-old girl for being filmed in plane bathroom: ‘Shocking and outrageous’
The Florida
time to lock up the silverwareheadline of the day- Florida Sen. Rick Scott, a close Trump ally, joins race to succeed Mitch McConnell as GOP leaderSay Hello to Euclid:
Nikki Haley has decided to support Trump. She must be:
A. hoping to be his VP
and
B. assuming he’ll drop dead in office so she can take over.
@CSK: She’s desperately trying to hang onto what little relevance she has in today’s GOP and in the process has made herself little more than a footnote in the history books.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Have they spotted five rogue planets flying in formation, with artificial light sources orbiting some of them?
I didn’t think so.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Yup. She has no chance until Lardass collapses, if he ever does.
But when/if he does, she may be late in claiming she opposed him.
The EU, UK, Canada and Mexico should be ready to profit from, and indeed encourage, an expat flow if Trump is elected. It is extraordinarily difficult for Americans to leave the US on any long-term basis due primarily to the fact that we are taxed on all worldwide income. Believe me, I’ve looked into it. A lot.
You can renounce US citizenship and if you’ve been very careful and laid in plans well in advance, you may be able to get a Caribbean passport, but the process to move citizenship and taxation to Europe or the UK is daunting and very slow. Not sure about Mexico as that was never on my list. But across Europe golden visa programs have all been shut down, which is self-harm for countries like Portugal or Greece.
We made a stupid mistake when China took over Hong Kong. We should have thrown open the doors. We could have acquired amazing human capital for free. We should have offered to buy plane tickets. If Trump wins there will be millions of high-value US citizens who’d happily bail.
The EU and UK should take a look at the potential brain drain, especially of creatives, some techies, and professionals like medical researchers, doctors and nurses, whose training would transfer. For a start, France and/or the UK could acquire half of Hollywood in short order if they lowered barriers. Retirees are another potential pick-up, as you still get Social Security even if you renounce. Imagine all that Boomer retirement money being spent in Portugal or Poland.
It’s sort of a running joke that people talk about emigrating but never do. But that’s because US laws and EU barriers make it very hard to pull off. My money could all be in Spanish banks, my taxes could all go to the French government, my SS could all be spent in Irish pubs.
About the turbulence accident of the Singapore plane, I hope the investigation will not focus solely on what kind of turbulence it was and how to spot it beforehand, and/or how to keep it from causing such a huge, rapid aircraft movement. That’s hugely important, but not all that matters.
I hope they will also look at how passengers were injured and why, and whether anything can be done to ameliorate such injuries.
This does get looked at. First of course you want to prevent accidents. But second, you want as many people to survive and as few to be injured when there is an accident. Like the British Midlands fire in 1985.
In the Singapore case, I’m willing to bet most of those with severe injuries did not have their seat belt on. As I mentioned yesterday, you should always keep it on unless you need to leave your seat (even when lying on a premium class flat bed, too).
But it’s important to know this for certain, and to see what injuries passengers wearing their seat belts sustained, or whether some seat belts failed, or even whether they were not enough for this kind of accident.
I’m not holding my breath but I will be watching.
@OzarkHillbilly: @Kathy:
That doesn’t preclude Haley from wanting to be Trump’s vp and hoping he’ll croak in office.
This is what the Hamas-aligned on campus and in the Biden administration are fighting for. Women taken, beaten and offered up for rape and impregnation.
@CSK:
Not buying a single lotto ticket does not preclude me, or anyone, from hoping to win the jackpot. it just ain’t never gonna happen.
Realistically, Lardass should pick Haley. Her supporters won’t necessarily vote would-be Kim just because Haley endorsed him, but are more likely to if she’s in the ticket (and maybe they hope he’ll dies strangled in his nappy or something). The Lardass base will think what the fuhrer tells them to think, if he bothers to.
But, like the scorpion, what counts in the end is his nature. And his nature is to punish, belittle, degrade, humiliate, and hate with every fiber of his being anyone who does what Haley did to him. She made him look bad.
You might have noticed Bing and Copilot, at least,w ere down this morning. I tried to run Copilot as soon as I got to the office, and it wouldn’t load. A few minutes ago, it finally came on.
I asked: Where you and Bing down until a few moments ago?
Here’s the reply: I’m sorry for any confusion, but as an AI, I don’t have real-time status updates or the ability to monitor the uptime of Bing or any other services. If you experienced an issue, it might have been a temporary problem with your internet connection or the specific service you were trying to access. If you’re still having trouble, I recommend checking your internet connection and trying again. Let me know if there’s anything else I can assist you with!
Me: Interesting. If your systems go down, you wouldn’t know about it?
Copilot: That’s correct. As an AI, I don’t have the ability to monitor real-time system status or know if there was a downtime. I don’t have access to real-time data or events. My primary function is to provide information and answer questions to the best of my knowledge and abilities. If there’s anything else you’d like to know or discuss, feel free to ask!
I’m note sure I believe all of that.
Nikki Haley said, “Biden has been a catastrophe.” So, under what Biden policy or lack of policy did thousands of Americans die? I would think the loss of life would be the ultimate catastrophe. When and how did Biden mismanage his office in a way that resulted in the deaths of U.S. citizens and residents?
@DeD:
She specifically accused Biden of abandoning America’s allies–which seems like a particularly strange thing to say given how much of a big deal she made during the primaries about supporting Ukraine, which Biden has wholeheartedly supported but which Trump will absolutely abandon if he wins. The only way I can make sense of her remark is if she’s talking specifically about Israel–and considering the high level of support the Biden Admin has given to Israel, my guess is what she really means is that she wants Bibi to be given a blank check, which Trump will do but Biden won’t. That’s all she cares about. That’s what neocon internationalism has been reduced to.
What ties it all together….
Eugene Kontorovich is a professor at the George Mason University Scalia Law School and the director of its Center on the Middle East and International Law. He is also the head of the international law department at the Kohelet Policy Forum, a think tank in Jerusalem.
@Kathy:
Tomorrow night I will get to use a business class flat bed as dear wife and I fly Qantas to Sydney via DFW.
We flew Singapore Airlines FC from Manila to Singapore in 1998. As you know SA has an excellent reputation, There was no flat bed back then.
I’ve begun packing. DW will pack tonight. Have to bring my jackets. Night time temperatures in Sydney have been registering in the high 40’s of late.
@Bill Jempty:
Flat beds are life changing.
@Michael Reynolds: I recently heard that Germany, Poland and Spain all have citizenship programs for descendants of Jewish citizens of their countries if you meet certain conditions. You might want to look into that.
@Senyordave:
Sadly my great grandparents fled Russian pogroms. I’m told there were Cossacks involved.
Louisville Police announce that LMPD officer Gillis broke policy for not turning on his body camera during the Scottie Scheffler arrest, as required by policy. He has received “corrective action” for this violation. The cop who arrested Scheffler claimed he was “dragged to the ground” and seriously injured by Scheffler’s car. From the video released, it seems to be a total lie. He was not dragged 20-30 yards. He simply ran up to the car and Scheffler stopped.
Trump will hold a rally in the Bronx tonight, a borough he lost by 300,000 votes in 2020.
I wonder how that will go.
@Bill Jempty:
Have a great time.
Louisville Police released the video of Scottie Scheffler’s arrest.
It’s a freaking joke. They oughta be ashamed of themselves. Scheffler should sue for false arrest.
https://x.com/JNucci23/status/1793682829039079700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1793682829039079700%7Ctwgr%5E6afe21159b32f7201ad511ad3e3481181cc6a79b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mediaite.com%2Fnews%2Fjust-in-video-of-scottie-scheffler-incident-released-by-louisville-police%2F
Imagine if you weren’t the #1 golfer in the world, and didn’t have the resources to fight.
@Michael Reynolds:
I think Lithuania and Latvia offer citizenship by descent. That is, to descendants of people who were citizens of these countries. Were any of your great grandparents from there?
@CSK:
Don’t be stupid. Of course they will cheer him.
@Kathy:
So does the Dominican Republic. I was just approved for my Dominican citizenship, and will have my new passport within three weeks. I’m looking at my exit strategy. Still leaning towards Ecuador, but Spain and Italy are growing on me, mostly because of the ease of traveling via train throughout Europe.
But the weather, and being able to live oceanfront, is the big allure to Ecuador.
@Bill Jempty:
Siss-boom-blech.
@CSK:
Thanks.
One of the last big jobs before moving, is taking our cat to the neighbor who will be caring for them while Dear Wife and I are gone. The neighbor is named Maria and she lives on the floor above us. Maria loves cats and her own died just a short time ago.
I’ve been through several moves with cats and these animals don’t take well to having their environment changed. Misay likes to have water dripped on her and I’m sure after that’s done one time by Maria my cat will do fine.
We’ll be bringing Misay to Maria at 9 tomorrow morning. Dear Wife and I will be picked up by the limo service at 12:15. Our flight leaves Miami just before 5. We have a three hour layover in Dallas.
I’m bringing my laptop but will only use it when traveling due to the different voltage. When in Australia I will be renting equipment. My stories and Strat-O-Matic baseball will be backed up to One drive so I can access them from a different machine. While playing SOM, I have up to 5 seasons open. For the trip, I’m only bringing one. 1963.
Maria will watch our condo for us while we’re gone. We’ve already emptied the refrigerator of most anything that can go bad.
Tomorrow this time I will be at Miami Airport at this time. Probably in the American Airlines lounge and maybe still reading this blog.
@Kathy: The MAGAts won’t go away simply because Trump dies. Endorsing Trump is immaterial to her political future unless she switches parties.
Calling JohnSF, calling JohnSF:
Nigel Farage won’t stand for the Reform Party in the next general election because he believes it’s more important to get Trump elected.
@EddieInCA: Apparently Italy offers citizenship by descent. My paternal grandparents immigrated from Italy, and my father was born before my grandmother naturalized, so I would likely qualify for an Italian passport.
Not something I’m pursuing at the moment, but it’s good to know it’s available should I need it.
@Mikey:
There was a story last year (though it was later disputed) that Bolsonaro was seeking citizenship in Italy due to his own Italian ancestors. In any case, Italy said he was not welcome due to his role in the attempted coup in Brazil.
That’s a little like the way Meyer Lansky was denied citizenship in Israel due to his being a mobster, even though as a rule Israel makes no exceptions to its promise to allow Jews in.
@Michael Reynolds: I should probably be asking a tax attorney or accountant, but since you’ve already looked into this…
We think about self-exile to the Netherlands if Trump should win, but I’m confused about taxes. My income will continue to come from the US — my WGA pension, my low-res professorship at UC, book royalties and TV residuals, and possibly even Social Security by then. So I’m paying US taxes on all that, anyway, and don’t really plan on taking new jobs abroad, unless some cool writing gig happens to come along. Am I still facing a stiff second tax bill from my new home country, even though I’m not earning money there?
@Bill Jempty:
There are a lot of voltage adapters in the market. Since you’re leaving soon, I suggest looking for one at DFW.
@wr: It may vary by country–and the kind of money we’re talking, but during the 8 years that I lived in Korea, I was not assessed for taxes on any income that came from US sources. Korea never asked for information on such income, and I never volunteered any such information. I don’t know how much this will help, though, as Korea is pretty resolved to not being a welcome respite for anyone’s “struggling masses yearning to be free.” That’s been the job of the US, and Korea has been happy to let us do it.
ETA: It occurred to me after I hit send, that one feature of residency status for non-Koreans is a substantial position in the bourse of the nation. When I was considering trying to stay, the magic number was ~$500k*. Such a position in the stock market would give them plenty of opportunity to tax. The Netherlands may or may not have similar requirements, but it’s something to look into.
*Of course, most euigooks who stay do so the same way it’s done in ‘Murka: marry into a green card. I assume that’s not an option for you.
Can’t believe how wrong I was. The police released all video except the video that the city attorney said not to.
They would have provided the body cam that proved guilt but the hero cop forgot to activate his body cam as his life was in great danger so he gets a unfair demerit in his private personnel file that the public can’t see because officer safety and privacy.
Trump on stage in the Bronx.
Biden’s New Hampshire visit where someone expected “Bingo” to ring out looked like a social distancing event.
@CSK:
Nigel Farage won’t stand because he has a good chance of losing yet again.
And if he’s not a candidate or (officially) leader of the Reform Party (even though he effectively owns it: it’s complicated) he can pop up on GB-TV without violating campaign media laws.
IMO Farage likes being an “insurgent”, for the attention he gets (he’s a egotistical arsehole, by all accounts) and the grift.
I really don’t thing that governing is, or ever has been, his main objective.
The opportunities for a pay-day offered by the Right-wing media circus in the US, even just the crumbs from the table, are likely greater by an order of magnitude than anything he could hope for in the UK.
In re. the UK election, I think his plan is for Reform to act as a spoiler, collapse the Conservative vote, and walk in to inherit the “right-wing realignment”of a post-election Conservative civil war (and split?) and Reform/right-wing Con merger.
Still delusional, IMHO: the UK is not the US.
A viable right-of centre vote bloc here needs the centre and “liberal conservative” vote.
And Farage is toxic for that.
The right has a fatal split between the various flavours of nationalist/populist types (who Johnson wooed) and the free market/low tax mob (Trussites, basically).
Sunak has tried (as did May) to reconcile the two, and ended up being wrecked by the contradiction.
In the US this divide can be papered over by “cultural” issues: guns, race legacy and regional divisions, abortion, evangelical nut-housery, etc.
These DO NOT apply in the UK in anything like the same way.
The mistake the overly-online Conservative/UKIP activist right make is that because they are so drawn into the US right social media discourse and trans-Atlantic think-tank networks (the perils of a shared language, lol) is to forget that the UK basic political sociology is utterly different.
Trying to create a Trumpified UK-GOP is a recipe for failure.
Incidentally: latest opinion poll.
44% Labour
27% Conservatives
10% Reform
9% Liberal Democrats
5% Greens
Given the indications of anti-Con tactical voting in recent election?
It’s tent-peg time, folks.
🙂
@Kathy: An awful lot of modern electronics are dual voltage. I’ve traveled to dozens of countries with just the local plug adapter, I.e. no voltage adapter. Take a look at your chargers and power bricks before you lug around a power converter.
@JKB: I don’t see a link, and Trump’s team has often been caught using pictures of Rod Stewart concerts in Brazil, or Obama’s inauguration, soooo…..
@JohnSF:
Addendum:
On reflection, it’s not a two way, but a three way split.
The “populist” vs “low-tax/free-market fundamentalist” is the main divison on the right of the party, and among the more manic activists.
But there remains a (less vocal) core constituency, probably about 1/3 of MP’s, even after the “Johnson purge” of the liberal/traditionalist element, the “One Nation” group as they are sometimes called, plus moderate/indifferent but sensibly calculating careerist types.
More importantly, this is a key element of the Conservative (former) core vote in their prosperous, upper-middle class, safe seats, and still more of the “winnable vote” who can swing elections in such places.
They tend to be suspicious of the Labour Party; but also they really don’t like the recent populist/”thatchertarian” record of incompetence, vulgarity, pandering, administrative failure, legal shenanigans, dishonesty and, above all, political spin-doctoring that takes them for fools.
(And, on a more self-interested note, the shift of public project money to the populist target constituencies)
The openings of Sunak’s campaign indicates he intends to continue to pitch to to the populist target vote.
My view:
Please continue with your cunning plan, gentlemen.
@JohnSF: @JohnSF:
Thanks. Very informative.
@Paul L.:
+1 for self awareness.