Thursday’s Forum
Off my game, but that doesn't stop the hot takes.
Steven L. Taylor
·
Thursday, April 23, 2020
·
52 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter
I didn’t watch trump’s performance last night (I never do) so I may have missed some nuance but I fully expect him to go back to voicing full throated support for Kemp’s reopening of the GA economy today. From what I have read Kemp fully intends to proceed (NYT), which tells me trump said one thing to the press and something entirely different to Kemp on the phone.
We’ve seen this show before.
The Tennessee coronavirus headline of the day-
Brothers Who Hoarded 17,700 Hand Sanitizer Bottles Avoid Fine After Donating Supplies
It would be world class of chutzpah if these brothers would now apply for a small business loan to bail themselves out from their big losses.
If you support these people you’re just an idiot.
I googled hypocrisy and you’ll never guess who’s face showed up.
I’m sure trump would say, “Our Iran policy is already producing stunning results.” in which “stunning” means “exactly what we expected.”
Ummm, donny? One shoots down planes and sinks boats.
@Teve: Or an amoral POS.
@Teve:
Junior’s a pathetic little twerp, isn’t he? Always frantically toadying for Daddy’s approval.
Suddenly I feel like future generations should not be burdened with pensions for Republican Congress critters or their staffs. I’m not sure where this sudden change of heart comes from. Oh yeah:
(NYT)
Just another amoral POS.
Dammit, I misspelled Republican again.
Some interesting but not so good non Covid news: Record rain triggered 2018 Kīlauea volcano eruptions, says study
That’s the interesting part. Now for the not so good part:
The Florida headline of the day-
Home invasion robber wanted food, Internet for his family, police say
It reminds me of a line on a early episode of Lou Grant. People hijacked an airplane. They wanted a half million dollars, people freed from prison, and Star Wars as the in-flight movie.
I’m going to the doctor today. My quarantine might be relaxed slightly. I still plan on staying home. Maybe I will go for morning walks with the wife.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Maybe he watches this for a break from Fox News.
Rick Wilson on the Trumps: The dumbfuck Borgias
@OzarkHillbilly: We knew these guys were licking their chops at the idea of NY and CA going into debt. The only surprise is that Moscow Mitch said it out loud.
The difference between a state and the Federal government is the ability of the Feds, who borrow in their own currency, which they print, to absorb risk and debt.
@OzarkHillbilly: Of course, there is the little matter that Kemp appointed Kelly Insider-Trading Loeffler to Johnny Isakson’s Senate seat, instead of Donald’s wacko defender Doug Collins. Donald never forgets to repay an injury.
Remember those two DOJ prosecutors who quit in disgust over Trump’s meddling with Roger Stone’s sentencing? One of them has now joined the DC Office of the Attorney General as Special Counsel for Public Corruption.
@gVOR08: As somebody else noted at BJ, maybe NY and CA should ask Mitch exactly who pays for the federal largess that keeps Kentucky afloat?
@OzarkHillbilly:
If states want to be bailed out, they should give the governor a multi-million dollar salary, and an even bigger bonus. They should also similarly pay other state officials, but sharply reduce the salaries, and benefits, of the lower ranks of state employees. They should issue stock for public works, and buy back their own shares.
Then they’d be too big to fail.
@OzarkHillbilly: Houes Appropriators should strip out any Federal money going to Kentucky. A little hardball and a little sunshine on that bluegrass.
So has anyone guessed this week’s subtitle theme yet? I’m perplexed…
Tiny throws Kemp under the bus.
In the Only The Best People category
Fox News regular Anthony Tata to be tapped as Pentagon policy chief
What his actual qualifications may be are undisclosed.
@mattbernius: I am so culturally ignorant, I don’t stand a chance. I’m just patting myself on the back for figuring out Steven was doing something, even if I had no clue what it was.
@Sleeping Dog: I was going to post something about this myself. Josh Marshall over at Talking Points Memo called this perfectly: Trump’s strategy is to play both sides. He calls for opening as a concept, but then will not support anyone who actually opens, reserving the right to say it wasn’t done right when things go bad.
Politicians, or maybe just Republican politicians, seem particularly unable to learn the lesson that NYers learned decades ago: there is no scenario in which associating yourself with Trump in any way ends up well. More than that – there is no scenario that doesn’t end with Trump walking over your body.
Elizabeth Warren’s brother has passed, due to COVID-19.
Elizabeth Warren’s oldest brother, Donald Herring, 86, has died of Covid-19.
Comrade Trump sends another suddenly out of favor loyalist to Siberia:
Trump says he ‘totally disagrees’ with Georgia Gov. Kemp’s decision to reopen businesses in the middle of coronavirus pandemic
The commenters resemble a starving pack of hyenas. 😀
Trump economic advisor comes up with solution to the pandemic:
Q&A With a Trump Economic Adviser
You know, because obviously a country unable to make enough N95 masks can make hundreds of millions of spacesuits like it was nothing.
@Stormy Dragon:
He probably means hazmat suits.
But you’re right: people who can’t cover their nose with a cloth mask can surely handle a more complex system like a hazmat suit. That self-contained breathing thingy ought to be a breeze.
@Kathy:
Even if he did, there’s no way we could produce hazmat suits at near the level needed to give everyone one, so it’s still a ridiculous idea when we can’t even make enough N95 masks.
@Stormy Dragon:
Not even enough to give a small fraction of hospital workers one.
I had a good checkup with my primary doc today. He recommends I stay indoors as much as possible which I plan to. Walking is ok. Dear Wife goes out at 5:30 a.m., social distancing isn’t a problem, and she just walks in the parking lot for ours and an adjacent apartment house. So I am not far from home.
NFL Draft is tonight. I’ll be watching.
Angel ‘from heaven’ — Brave tech-savvy priest links grieving families with dying coronavirus patients
The priest, Fr. Gabriel, in this article just taped next Sunday’s mass for our church and with my wife lectoring.They video are at Youtube (with the exception of Next Sunday’s) and a past one with Fr Gabriel and my wife can be found here. Fr. Gabriel has been saying masses at our church for about two years.
McConnell says someething on the Right Wing Echo Chamber about another stimulus bill aimed at State and Local Governments hit by the COVID Pandemic would amount to a “Blue State Bailout”
Cuomo throat punched him…
This is an issue I’ve ranted about for years.
I say we take McConnell seriously, and Blue States stop bailing out Red States.
Let NY keep the surplus $116B they send to DC…and let Kentucky live without the $148B.
Same with CT, CA, and all the other Blue States that send more to DC than receive in return.
And the same with LA, AK, SC, MI, and all the Red State Welfare Queens…let them eat cake.
Let’s see what a real Blue/Red divide looks like.
I think FL, TX, and NV, are the only Red States that can survive without support of the Blue States.
It’s almost a pity @Guarneri isn’t here. His favorite ‘news’ source, Zero Hedge, has been permanently banned from Twitter for spreading lies.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl: FL only survives because of tourist money and retirees with big pensions from places like NY, NJ, etc.
@Teve:
And in a related item, the NYT reported the other day that Charlie Kirk is now formally on the Trump meme/talking point team. They also mentioned that Charlie Kirk is highly regarded by Trump Junior. Basically, if you add 2 degrees to room temperature, and add 10-20 IQ points above Junior, you get Charlie Kirk.
Charlie Kirk is sort of, kind of analogous to Ben Shapiro, in that he’s one of those who older conservatives like to point to as the new conservative breed, a new young Red Brigade – those young people, new ‘thought’ leaders not brainwashed by Liberal University Elites. I’d say that Shapiro is about 40 IQ points above Kirk and 50-60 points above Junior.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl: if we spend the next decade or two with a Republican Senate wrecking our ability to handle serious problems while those states also consume large amounts of welfare from blue states, I expect there to be a political crisis and the current entity of America may not survive.
@al Ameda: Trump has had himself photographed in apartments drenched in gold, and these idiots are mocking Nancy’s refrigerator?
So here’s a rough calculation of what the actual fatality rate is for COVID-19: 0.5 – 1.4%
Here’s how I got it.
– 0.11 to 0.16% of all New Yorkers (NYC, not state) have died due to diagnosed cases of coronavirus.
– A study just out estimates 21% of New Yorkers have been infected
– Combining these two numbers gives us a range of 0.52% to 0.76%
This assumes that all deaths related to Covid-19 were found and diagnosed. A week ago or so it was revealed that there was a very significant additional death rate in NYC, and it was reasonable to assume that all or most of that was due to undiagnosed Covid cases. That would add in a multiplier of 1.8. (Since then, about 3K of those deaths have been reassigned to Covid, but it’s not clear what fraction remains. I’m just going to take 1.8x as worst case.) That changes the above numbers to
– 0.52 * 1.8 = 0.94%
– 0.76 * 1.8 = 1.37%
Of course, some of this study was conducted during a steep rise in cases, while other parts were closer to a steady state, and death rate trails cases by about two weeks, but at least it’s a reasonable ballpark estimate.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
Moscow Mitch is in denial if he doesn’t believe that the first states to bankruptcy will be red leaning. If the states are required to absorb their own costs for the pandemic, NY, Cali, Mass etc, have the tax base in place to pay for the response. It would result in massive cuts in state level programs, but they can do it. Can Texas, with the collapse of oil? Florida with the collapse of tourism. One of the first in line would be my own Cow Hampshire, which has a small state budget, few services, but no reliable revenue stream.
The latest figures from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map give Mexico 10,544 confirmed cases adn 970 deaths. That’s a sky-high mortality rate of over 9%
Naturally this means testing is lagging waaaaaay behind what it should be, and heavily weighted at people presenting symptoms. If you look at the cases per day tracker, IMO we’re heading for a major human and economic disaster. We just got a late start.
There’s no national stay at home order, though there’s plenty of encouragement to stay at home. At the state level there are such orders, with varying degrees of severity and enforcement.
At work, the damned open invitations keep coming out, and the department boss is not interested at all in even letting some of the 20 people within to stay home, at least for part of the week. Corporate, one floor below my office, has issued orders to wear masks while at the office. they even gave out masks (I also have a cloth mask a coworker kindly made for me). This is good, but we’re still taking on a lot of unnecessary risk.
@Teve: I don’t remember who said it but it was recommended that Nancy Pelosi run the fall campaign from the Sub-Zero plant in Wisconsin.
@Michael Reynolds: You can be banned for lies? Shouldn’t a lot of others be getting that treatment, including, oh, the moron at the top?
@Sleeping Dog:
It’s the entire Republican Party who is in denial…about the complete failure of their economic theories.
@al Ameda: I can’t stand Kirk (of course). I occasionally reply just to call him a propagandist dweeb.
@Kathy: My wife is from Juarez and has a brother that works in the USA but still goes to Juarez often. He said that they’re actually charging an exorbitant amount for a test there; over $100. Plus, it sounds like there’s a lot of “eh, whatever” attitude about the virus. (Wife and brother are a bit like that, too.) Doesn’t bode well.
@reid:
I guess it varies. My research indicates the test is free at government hospitals (no testing stations), but the cost to the government is around $58. Private clinical labs and hospitals offer the test, too, at around $120 to $150. The kicker is they seem to be testing only people with symptoms or who have been exposed to people with symptoms. That’s a recipe to miss lots of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers.
Attitudes vary. Some people took until late March or even early April to take it seriously. Some others think the odds of infection are too low.
Given the low testing rate, I assume the actual number of cases to be at least ten times as big, meaning around 110,000 in the country, not evenly distributed. And here we get to a lottery paradox kind of thing:
The odds of encountering someone infected with the virus are low, around 0.09%. But the odds of someone infected encountering someone not infected are very high, around 100%. In short, take precautions, wash your hands, wear masks, and stay home as much as possible or permanently until further notice
In most cities, only essential businesses are operating. In theory people are still getting paid regardless, but in practice who knows how true that is. And this is not sustainable in the long term. Not to mention the whole informal sector of the economy, which may be as big as the formal one.
It’s a huge mess.
BTW, I think deaths are under-counted, too, but not to the same extent.
In a development that should surprise nobody, the guy Trump picked to be the spokesman of the Department of Health and Human Services is a vile, racist piece of shit.
@Teve:
SHUT THE FUCK UP DONNY YOUR BLOATED ORANGE SPERM DONOR SHITS ON A GOLDEN TOILET
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
Their economic theories are working just fine. The rich are getting richer, and can buy all the stuff they want. What else matters?
NFL draft starts tonight. This will be one of the most watched drafts ever.