Tradesport and the Upcoming Elections
Like James Hamilton I find Tradesports (and the related Iowa Electrionic Market) to be helpful in getting an idea of how the election is going to go. And if these markets are good indicators, things look bad for the Republicans in terms of holding onto the House, let alone gaining seats. If we think of the price of the contract as a probability then probability that the Republicans lose the House just went over 50%. In addition, the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate also seem higher than they were a week ago.
Anyhow, check out Prof. Hamilton’s post for more information.