Tradesport and the Upcoming Elections

Like James Hamilton I find Tradesports (and the related Iowa Electrionic Market) to be helpful in getting an idea of how the election is going to go. And if these markets are good indicators, things look bad for the Republicans in terms of holding onto the House, let alone gaining seats. If we think of the price of the contract as a probability then probability that the Republicans lose the House just went over 50%. In addition, the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate also seem higher than they were a week ago.

Anyhow, check out Prof. Hamilton’s post for more information.

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Steve Verdon
About Steve Verdon
Steve has a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles and attended graduate school at The George Washington University, leaving school shortly before staring work on his dissertation when his first child was born. He works in the energy industry and prior to that worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Division of Price Index and Number Research. He joined the staff at OTB in November 2004.