Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, August 3, 2022
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64 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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I’m terribly proud of Kansans this morning. A slight glimmer of hope in this post-Roe landscape (hellscape?)
DOD ‘wiped’ phones of Trump-era leaders, erasing Jan. 6 texts
If this is the SOP, change is needed. Especially for appointed posts. But also for high ranking officials (at least generals).
@Jen: My it be a harbinger of things to come.
@Jen: p
They have to keep screeching about how their 50yr victory doesn’t apply to a lot of situations that are clearly “medical problems” instead of “evil abortions” because the public realizes what an absolute mess they’ve made. They want to maintain that carefully cultivated imagery of wicked sinners doing it on a whim, not desperate women or young girls afraid for their lives. So many men and women just had this become front and center in their lives because like it or not, pregnancy is complicated.
I think a lot of the antis are going to find that if given the choice, most states (even red ones) aren’t going to keep pushing for that total ban. The ones with bans have triggers set in place before Roe went down, when they were performance measures meant to please the religious extremes or leftovers from the olden times. Now that people are starting to see the consequences in real time, voters aren’t going to go for bans or even further restrictions. Kansas may be the start of the public pushing back.
@Jen:
I hope it is, and that it will spread. But political victories can be very transitory. remember the ballot measure in Florida to allow convicted felons to vote? My guess is few if any have managed to do so, given the restrictions placed on them later on.
About Kansas, if they haven’t already, I expect the GQP to claim the ballot measure was confusing (it was, made so by the GQP on purpose), and that most, if not all, who voted against it actually wanted to vote for it. This will not work, but it may throw enough confusion around for a second try at the ballot box.
Next, as I understand it, this was a measure to amend the state’s constitution. I assume there are other means of amending it, and the GQP will probably try to, against the will of the majority. Remember, this is a minority rule party largely by design.
We have won the battle, but the war rages on, even in Kansas.
A Kansan I know says there isn’t. The Ballot box is the only way.
@Kathy: Right now, there are two victories: one, the no vote prevailed; two, the people who tried to orchestrate this had their collective @sses handed to them.
This measure was standard GOP: get a confusingly-worded measure on the ballot during a normally low-turnout (primary) election, layer in some deceptive advertising and blatantly false text messaging campaign (the platform hosting the text messaging pulled it, that was how bad it was), and then sit back and wait for the assumed yes vote side to prevail.
I worked in GOP politics and honestly, seeing this type of deceptive campaigning fail, and fail badly–it’s like Christmas for me today. I am so, so pleased.
Some pleasant news: Dolly Parton will receive a 2022 Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy.
On other things, Pelosi’s Air Force flight yesterday broke the servers of flight tracking websites and apps, due to so many people following its progress towards Taiwan.
@Kathy:
I assume Flightaware was one of the ones that crashed, so to speak.
The Kansas abortion vote is the political equivalent for the GOP of Putin trying to snatch Kyiv airport and realizing to his dismay that, Oh, fuck, I just stepped in it.
What will terrify GOP professionals is the turn-out. Double the usual off-year primary turn-out, especially in the suburbs, is a nuclear level event. Caveats: it’s a single issue vote that won’t translate 1:1 in electing candidates. But today Democratic strategists will be busy figuring out how to get abortion onto ballots and into ads and speeches, and GOP strategists will be frantically trying to disappear the abortion issue.
@Jen:
Work’s been rather light for a change (and thanks in part to the crash of a major government portal), so I’ve had time to review older posts here at OTB from 2018 on (around the time I began to comment here). Call it an exercise in reviewing recent history.
One takeaway is that optimism, which is my natural inclination, is really very close to hubris in the Greek Tragedy sense. Not optimism per se, but the complacency it tends to generate. I’m trying to temper that.
Vin Scully passed away last night.
Never met the man, yet I had a surprisingly emotional reaction to the news. Being a lifelong Angeleno, athlete and sports fan, I grew up with Vin Scully calling the Dodgers, Chick Hearn calling the Lakers, and Bob Miller calling the Kings (arguably three of the best sports broadcasters in history) and I had all three of them for 50+ years in my hometown.
Vis Scully was simply the best, class all the way. RIP
@Michael Reynolds: I can’t wait to talk to my niece who lives in the Kansas City suburbs(Lenexa, Johnson County). I guarantee that she and her wife voted.
I knew this was coming. The whole BS Religious Liberty argument wielded by far right Christians to undermine the military, public health, the ACA, and a host of other issues is about to swing around and punch them in the face.
Florida clergy lawsuits say abortion ban violates religious freedom
Investigation debunks bogus ‘audit’ claiming 300 dead people voted in Arizona in 2020
The Deep State strikes back!
@Scott:
Tyranny: when someone applies to you the laws you drafted or defended.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Kari Lake, the MAGA loon who’s running for the governorship of Arizona, is slightly ahead of her opponent, Republican Karrin Robson–but Lake’s already claiming voter fraud.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Passing away after the election is different, but this brings up an interesting side effect of vote-by-mail and early voting. I think how the votes are treated varies from state to state when a person casts their vote before election day but then pass away between when they voted and when election day actually happens.
This would sometimes rarely happen before, but it’s been increasing due to how voting is changing. It’s interesting. But also totally wrong to classify as fraud in any way.
I’m wondering about something. The last two weeks of July I had certain exposure to the trump virus. one was in recovering in my apartment, the other was a coworker who showed up coughing up a storm (yes, that one).
I’ve not even a hint of symptoms, and two rapid tests came back negative. No worries on that score. But I wonder: did I just avoid it, or did the 4 doses of vaccine protect me?
Yes, many who’ve contracted Omicron were vaccinated with anywhere from 2 to 4 doses. The same goes for Delta, though more in a 2 to 3 doses regime. We know these two variants evade immune protection from both vaccines and prior infection. We know, too, circulating neutralizing antibodies decline in the weeks after vaccination. And we know most of those vaccinated are at a lower risk for severe symptoms and death.
Just the same, this does not mean either Omicron or Delta can infect all the vaccinated people they manage to infiltrate. Most of them, yes, bit not all. Say the vaccines give only a 20% effectiveness in protection from infection. That’s very low, but not zero.
The odds suggest I avoided it. But I wonder.
Republicans reverse course as Senate passes burn pits legislation after days of pressure
I’m glad they pulled their heads out of Trump long enough to do the right thing.
@Kathy:
You may be genetically disposed to resist Covid. There’s research ongoing about that.
@Kathy: In my house, my wife caught COVID in January, presumably Omicron. Symptoms lasted about 3 days. Inside the house we did not isolate. But my daughter and I didn’t catch anything and tested negative. We were all vaxxed and boosted. There is a certain randomness and susceptibility to this disease that is still unexplained.
On the other hand, I always wonder whether I caught it at some other time and was asymptomatic. Only an antibody test would know for sure.
I don’t think it’s possible to describe how badly cross-examination went for Alex Jones. But for sure you never want to hear the following from an opposing attorney:
Not only was the entire thing damning but on the stand the other attorney was able to prove that Jones has been lying in all of his disclosures and making far more money than reported in discovery.
Jones and Attorney will definitely be facing sanctions. And most like Jones is going to be hit hard with perjury charges.
Oh, also, the plantiff’s attorney was able to introduce a clip in which Jones said, out loud, that the jury was made up of “blue collar people” who “didn’t know what planet they were on.” Like literally played that for the jury.
@mattbernius:
Love it. Alex Jones deserves every bad thing that happens to him. Utter swine.
@CSK:
@Scott:
At home I made it a point to keep my distance at all times (the apartment has been well-ventilated since April 2020), and I wore a mask at all times, even when alone*. I also wear a mask at the office (and nearly the only one who still does).
so I keep favoring avoidance rather than resistance. It keeps me from getting complacent and lowering my guard.
*I tried keeping the mask on when sleeping, but never once woke up with the mask still on.
Good news:
West Virginia can’t prevent transgender Medicaid participants from getting gender-confirming surgery, fed judge rules
Georgia allowing dependent deduction for human embryos
So…depending on how far along the zygotes are in the freezers in IVF clinics, seems to me that certain companies are sitting on a golden mine of tax deductions, no?
(Did anyone in Georgia actually think about the effects of this policy decision before making it? I know that this is obviously an attempt by forced-birthers to bolster up their argument that an embryo == full-blown human, but did no one run the numbers? This means that there’s a $3000 financial incentive to get a positive-we-measured-the-“heartbeat” test. It also means that there’s going to be quite an impact from miscarriages on Georgia’s tax take.)
@Kathy:
There’s likely some subset of humanity that has a genetic immunity to COVID19 entirely (maybe you have some weirdly shaped ACE2 protein that the virus can’t grab on to).
The longer you go without a COVID19 infection, the more and more likely it is you won the genetic lottery.
@Stormy Dragon:
I got to:
And started bawling. Aimee Stephens did so much for us. I wish she could have seen how important she is. If we had a Trans Mount Rushmore she would be on it with Marsha P. Johnson and Sylvia Rivera.
Reading between the lines of this opinion, its a great screw you to WV. It looks like they thought they could just step up and say “screw them trannys, right Judge.” You can’t go into court and just expect that a court is going to accept your discriminatory nonsense just cause you says so.
Also, if anyone reads the opinion, Dr. Loren Schechter is a prominent surgeon here in Chicago that basically only does Trans surgeries. He’s one of the absolute leaders in the field. I however, wouldn’t let him touch me for a whole lot of reasons. Got to give credit where credit is due though.
Thank you Aimee.
@Stormy Dragon:
My surviving parent, all my siblings, most of my nieces and nephews, and several cousins (that I know), have had COVID. Most of these people I know for certain got as far as the first booster last year. Therefore genetics would not seem to be the case.
On the bright side, it may mean I was adopted 😛
@Stormy Dragon:
IIRC, for any given virus about 2% of the human population is inherently immune. This got lots of play in the popular press for a while when they discovered that there were sex workers in Africa who were never infected by HIV, no matter how many times they were exposed.
Ron Watkins, purportedly the Q behind QAnon, came in dead last in the primary for Arizona’s Second Congressional seat.
He got 3% of the vote. I suppose he was too crazy even for them.
@Michael Reynolds:
Yep. My long experience in states with initiatives and referendums is that nothing drives voter turnout more than a ballot decision for a contentious policy. People are much more interested in single policies than they are in politicians. My belief is that’s because all politicians come with baggage, either personal or by party association.
@Scott: My husband got sick in late March/early April. He tested negative, but he only tested once, and that was right when he started having symptoms. We didn’t isolate. He was sick for 10+ days, but just standard cold symptoms: congestion, sore throat, etc. No fever.
I never got sick. When my doc asked me during my annual checkup if I’d gotten covid, I relayed this to her and she sort of shrugged–he may have had covid and since we were both fully vaxxed and boosted I didn’t get sick, or he had a cold and I just lucked out. Or, I had an asymptomatic infection.
At this point, the general response is: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@Kathy:
You could also be a mutant with the least impressive X-men power ever! =)
I don’t know about other states but I’m pretty sure that here in Misery if a voter dies after casting their absentee ballot but before election day, the ballot is supposed to be voided. No voting fraud, just sadness. I suppose a few might slip thru the cracks but that’s just “shit happens.”
@mattbernius: “Nose? I hate my face. Bye!”
@Scott: I’ve been waiting for this. Glad it finally happened.
@Stormy Dragon: More good news.
@Michael Cain:
Dobbs may be a lifeline for Democrats. 538 has Senate control now as 58 to 42, Dems. IIRC it’s moved blue by something like 10 points in just a few weeks. And the House, while still really bad, is also creeping toward the Dems, 80 to 20, about a 5 point move.
It will also drive funding. What we need now is for Trump to declare and set off a GOP civil war, and a some good economic numbers.
@Michael Reynolds:
As soon as Trump declares, the RNC will quit footing his legal bills.
@Stormy Dragon:
Well, I know I’m not immune to all infectious diseases. I have been sick.
So, agreed: not impressive at all.
@CSK:
Laurence O’Donnell was on MSNBC pointing out that Trump will be defendant in one case or another, civil or criminal, probably until he dies. Should have taken my advice to 1) pardon everyone, 2) resign the presidency, and 3) leave the country.
Hubris and stupidity.
@Jen:
I recall discussing with a friend whether we’d had Covid* and been asymptomatic (we’re both vaxxed and boosted) and the only conclusion we could reach was “Who knows?”
*The one time I was tested, it was negative.
Via commenter Xantar over at Balloon Juice, comes this precious little tidbit:
Hilarity indeed.
@Michael Reynolds:
Indeed. He and Melania could have taken refuge with Trump’s good friends, the Saudis. They’ve done so much for golf, you know.
US Rep Jackie Warlorski (R), from the Elkhart-South Bend region of northeastern Indiana, was just killed in a head on collision.
@OzarkHillbilly: Oh, my GAWD. That is amazing and horrifying and hilarious all in one.
I cannot believe someone in HR in 2022 thought that a plantation in Alabama was appropriate for a corporate event. JFC. Who signed off on that? I am stunned.
@Neil Hudelson: Two staffers were also killed in the accident, how tragic.
@Neil Hudelson:
Her aides and the woman in the other car were also killed.
@Michael Reynolds: “What we need now is for Trump to declare and set off a GOP civil war, and a some good economic numbers.”
All the polling and reporting so far has been (understandably) about the vicious Republican fighting in the primaries. I don’t think anyone has checked with the broader voter pool to see what they think about a flotilla of insane MAGA morons on the ballot.
I have no idea what’s going to happen, of course, but I’m really curious to see if the increasingly blue Arizona, for instance, is willing to go for all these nutbags.
I thought I was Covid immune, or had gotten it and hadn’t known it. Started our week vacation Sunday, sore throat Monday, positive Covid test Tuesday. Home from vacation. ☹️ my wife feels fine and tested negative.
@wr:
“…a flotilla of insane MAGA morons…”
I congratulate you on a nice turn of phrase.
@Kathy:
Trust me, genetics is WEIRD.
@Arnold Stang:
My sympathies. Trip or not, getting sick on vacation is the worst. You can’t even take time off. I hope it passes quickly.
@Beth:
And very messy.
Don’t worry @Jen, the BisFitty thing was from 7 years ago, not 2022. Apparently came up recently as part of a “best of Reddit” thing. 2015 was SUCH a different time, you know…
PS: I’m 100% positive such things still happen. Going to offend a few people, but honestly the more time one spends in the South the more I wish we’d never let them back in the Union.
@Kathy: Thanks. It’s acting like a bad cold, sore throat, runny nose, etc.
My wife retired when Covid started and I retired in May so we don’t have to worry about using time off.
@EddieInCA:..Vis Scully was simply the best, class all the way. RIP
One of the more memorable calls that Vin Scully did was the Kirk Gibson home run in game 1 of the 1988 World Series. I remember watching it on live on TV. It was all Gibson could do to keep from falling down when he took his first two swings. Even though you see the action on TV Vin Scully’s commentary adds to the tension and excitement.
Here it is.
It’s 9 minutes long and the ads are annoying however it’s worth running it to the end to hear all of Vin Scully’s remarks.
test
@OzarkHillbilly: Glad to see he profitted from it, too. His wife is the smart one in the family, tho. Having a Kunta Kinte name tag woulda been REAL over the top.
@Jen: “Who signed off on that? I am stunned.”
The person who went under the bus when the investigation happened. She didn’t realize her job title was ‘actual blamee’ rather than ‘designated blamee.’
@Kathy:
So, so, so very messy.
@Beth:
True, but nonetheless fascinating.
@Mister Bluster:
I was a Kirk Gibson fan from his Detroit days. Continued to be a fan and have seen this clip numerous times. Vin Scully knows exactly what to do.