Wednesday’s Forum

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Bill says:

    The headline of the day-

    …..I think every regular here knows what it is.

  2. Bill says:

    This Is How Trump Will Try to Take Down Kamala Harris

    Biden’s search for a running mate is getting messier by the day. Over the last few elections, vice presidential candidates have been announced just days before the party conventions, so the pace of Biden’s selection process seems to be well within, if not ahead of, precedent. Still, the squabbling over the pick this time around has been highly visible and fraught. We can credit that partially to petty intra-party politics. But there’s also a sense among Democrats that Biden’s choice could be pivotal, given his age and the likelihood that Trump will turn attention to the other half of the ticket if his attacks on Biden continue to fail.

    The conservative press has spent the past few weeks dredging up material to deepen Democratic anxieties. Representative Karen Bass, a fast-rising contender, has had to explain past remarks on Cuba and the Church of Scientology. Former national security adviser Susan Rice’s role in the Benghazi pseudo-scandal has been resurfaced. Meanwhile, Senator Kamala Harris remains a top-tier candidate, if not the frontrunner, for reasons that have been obvious since the selection process began: She’s conventionally experienced, she’s built a large national profile and political network, and she would satisfy Democratic voters and leaders who want Biden to pick a woman of color. This is not to say that she’s escaped recent scrutiny. Her lack of remorse over the criticisms she leveled at Biden during the primary has reportedly convinced some in the campaign that she’s an inauthentic striver more interested in succeeding Biden than supporting him. Harris’s defenders have countered that slights against her ambition reflect a sexist double standard.

    It’s doubtful that this conversation would be electorally important if Harris were chosen. Voters are used to seeing the critics of primary candidates reverse themselves once those candidates are nominated. As a Biden-Harris campaign would surely point out, the very same thing happened with Mike Pence in 2016. It also seems unlikely that the criticisms Harris received from the left during the primaries will matter much either; Trump, invested in the message that Democrats are dangerously soft on crime, won’t have much of an incentive to highlight her prosecutorial record.

    But there is one thing about Harris’s past that Trump and the right are almost certain to focus on if she’s chosen. Briefly in the mid-1990s, Harris, then a deputy district attorney in California’s Alameda County, dated future San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, who was then speaker of the state assembly and a powerful figure in state politics. Brown was married, but he had by then been estranged from his wife for over a decade; his other relationships were frequently reported and commented on in the local press. While they were dating, Brown gave Harris a car and appointed her to the California Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and the California Medical Assistance Commission, where she earned more than $400,000 over the course of five years.

    Harris spent her early years in politics defending what she’d accomplished in those positions—“whether you agree or disagree with the system,” she said in 2003, “I did the work”—and tried to distance herself from Brown, who has been investigated multiple times by the FBI. That effort basically succeeded⁠, despite Brown’s attempts to insert himself into her career and affairs.

    Go to the link for the rest of The New Republic article.

    2
  3. Bill says:
  4. Kurtz says:

    @Bill:

    @Jen made a reference to this the other day, I think.

    1
  5. Kurtz says:

    Tucker Carlson on the Biden-Harris ticket:

    “Harris may be the single most transactional human being in America,” he went on. “There are timeshare salesmen you would trust more than Kamala Harris. You could find payday lenders who are more sincere.

    “So, it seemed inconceivable that given his current state, Joe Biden would choose someone so transparently one-dimensional as Kamala Harris, someone as empty as he is. It would be the first entirely hollow presidential ticket in American history and we thought it could never happen. But it is. They’re doing it anyway.”

    Hollow and transactional… Sounds like… Eff it… Nevermind.

    Also, according to CNN, Palin offered advice to Harris. I didn’t bother to read what the advice was.

    6
  6. CSK says:

    @Kurtz:
    Palin told Harris not to “get muzzled.” If you care. I’m sure Harris doesn’t.

    2
  7. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Kurtz: As a friend’s Chinese chemistry Prof liked to say, “Why you botha?”

    ETA @CSK: First time thru I read that as not to “get nuzzled.”

  8. An Interested Party says:

    Republicans/conservatives seem a little confused with how they want to attack Harris—is she some leftist who, along with Joe Biden, wants to end the police and turn America over to the mobs, or is she part of the system that locks up minorities, particularly black men, in the prison industrial complex…make up your mind, GOP…

    Hollow and transactional… Sounds like… Eff it… Nevermind.

    Trump and anyone associated with him can’t help but push his flaws onto anyone who challenges him…the projection is incredibly strong with this gang…

    7
  9. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Pretty cool stuff: Sea creatures: the driftwood sculptures bringing joy to Australian beaches during the pandemic – in pictures

    Artist Pete Rush impulsively made a simple horse sculpture on a Terrigal beach from natural materials – the response from locals was so positive, it inspired him to create a seaside menagerie that includes horses and megafauna. Rush doesn’t use any wire or string in his work, just driftwood, flax and seaweed, and he tries not to disturb natural vegetation. To avoid attracting a crowd of onlookers during a time of physical distancing, he works mostly at night. ‘In the end, it’s a bit of fun in shit times,’ the Central Coast artist says of his sculptures, many of which are reclaimed by the ocean

    3
  10. Scott says:

    Totally messed up the block quoting and when I tried to edited it, I was blocked out. Sorry about that. Deal with it.

  11. Bill says:

    Singer Trini Lopez has passed away. I remember him for his small role in The Dirty Dozen. RIP

    1
  12. Tyrell says:

    Earthquakes in the south, now this:
    “Derecho Tracked 700+ Miles Across the Midwest” (Weather). Winds over 100 mph, trucks, and cars flipped over, trees down, 2×4 board goes through the wall of house!
    “Seven tornadoes touch down in Chicagoland during Monday’s Derecko storm” (WGN)
    “Unusual ‘Derecho Storms Rip Through Midwest”(NY Times) Weather experts are baffled.
    “The storm was so powerful that the riots in Chicago were canceled. A makeup date will be announced soon!” (am radio)

    1
  13. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Tyrell: Weather experts are baffled.

    No, no they are not. Derechos happen, they are not some new thing. They may not understand them completely, but there are a lot of things scientists do not understand completely. Things like gravity and evolution and water. No matter how far science goes there is always another question to be answered.

    14
  14. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @An Interested Party:

    If I were a betting man, I’d bet on them focusing their messaging on her prosecutorial career. It won’t convince any fence sitting Republicans / independents to flip, and judging from the reaction I’m seeing from friends and acquaintances on Facebook, et al, it’s a poisonous subject with many members of the AA community who already had other problems with her more centered on AA identity (or in her case the lack thereof in their eyes). The aim will be to encourage AA disenchantment with the ticket and drive, to the extent possible, depressed AA turnout. I’m not entirely sure that it won’t achieve that goal.

    That wouldn’t matter with respect to the presidential election, obviously, which is more or less IMO a fait acompli at this point, but it could be the margin between retaking the Senate or another two years of McConnell in charge.

    5
  15. An Interested Party says:

    That wouldn’t matter with respect to the presidential election, obviously, which is more or less IMO a fait acompli at this point, but it could be the margin between retaking the Senate or another two years of McConnell in charge.

    Really? I find it hard to believe that Kamala Harris would be the deciding factor between whether or not the Dems retake the Senate…the far more likely factor is Trump and his stench…

    6
  16. gVOR08 says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    but there are a lot of things scientists do not understand completely. Things like gravity and evolution and water.

    Small peeve of mine – we understand evolution better than we understand gravity, but no one runs around saying, “Gravity is just a theory.”

    9
  17. Northerner says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Yes, and in fact the way it usually works is that every time science works something out it raises several new questions. And the better the new discovery, the more new questions it raises.

    3
  18. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @gVOR08: Agreed.

    @Northerner: Exactly, and that is what makes science so cool. There is always more to learn.

    3
  19. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @An Interested Party:

    I’m sure many people would find it hard to believe that she has the potential to depress turnout, but in an environment where Biden winning is seen as a done deal at this point, it’s not that much of a stretch for some voters who don’t care for her making the leap to not bothering to vote.

    “He doesn’t need my vote to win and I don’t like her” isn’t exactly the realm of science fiction. In states like NC and SC, both of which are potential Dem flips for the Senate this cycle, it wouldn’t take much of a downturn in AA turnout for both to remain red.

    5
  20. MarkedMan says:

    @Tyrell: This was no joke. My brother in law was working in his companies main building, basically a steel roofed warehouse with enclosed offices and a sales counter up front, when he heard shouting from the back. He ran to the warehouse and discovered a big chunk of the roof was just gone. Gone in the “they still don’t know where it landed” sense. Some of the beams landed on cars in the parking lot and a semi-trailer was tipped on it’s side. Amazingly, no one was even slightly injured.

    4
  21. Scott says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    it’s a poisonous subject with many members of the AA community who already had other problems with her more centered on AA identity (or in her case the lack thereof in their eyes).

    I wonder how long until some purist will try to bring up and highlight that both Obama and Harris may be AA but not of slave origins and therefore not authentic.

    7
  22. MarkedMan says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    I’d bet on them focusing their messaging on her prosecutorial career.

    I agree, at least to the extent that is what the professional political campaign consultants will focus on. I think it will be largely neutralized by the more visible Republicans inability to stay on message and not say overtly racist things. Tucker Carlson may think he’s dancing on the line but to any reasonable person, especially (I suspect) AA’s, he is all but calling her an uppity you-know-what.

    For years we heard from the “Reasonable Republican” crowd that racism was in the past and no longer a thing amongst the Republican political and opinion leaders. It was a hopelessly naive view thent and today it is daily shown to be a farce. That’s going to be more motivating to my white *ss than any negative spin the Republican Slime Machine spews out. I have to think AA’s will feel even more so.

    8
  23. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @CSK: The “climb up on (to) Geraldine Ferraro’s and my shoulders” thing was a skosh pretentious, but I thought what I saw of the advice in the links that I looked up was pretty anodyne and innocuous. And more coherent than Palin has been in the past.

    (I wonder if the words were translated from Palinese? Ghosted, maybe?)

    2
  24. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: Indeed! Thanks!

    1
  25. MarkedMan says:

    @gVOR08: Gravity is not just a theory, it’s a law. Go ahead and break that law, and see what happens…

    3
  26. senyordave says:

    I guess its in the realm of possibility that some African Americas may be turned off by Harris’ role as a prosecutor but IMO at worst it will be offset 100% by the realization that if Biden wins there is a pretty good chance she will the candidate in 2024. I think it is a net gain due to turnout factor. Besides the Democrats will do well to focus on Trump’s overt historical racism and target ad in urban areas.
    The AA community isn’t going to somehow gravitate to Trump because they don’t like aspects of Harris’ background.

    4
  27. Kurtz says:

    @CSK:

    I don’t.

  28. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Scott:

    I’ve already heard variations of “They don’t mind picking us as long as we’re mixed” along with a variety of less than nice ways of saying “she thinks she’s white”. The basic takeaway is “we’re being patronized – again …”

    Assuming that the AA community is some monolithic voting bloc devoid of its own concerns & issues that will just unilaterally fall into line with whomever the DNC selects is folly.

    1
  29. KM says:

    Well folks it’s Wens. Two more days for regular folks to realize that despite Trump’s BS, that badly need check ain’t coming this week. Oh, some will hold out for next week or claim it will “take a while” for the EO to kick in but for many the deadline is rapidly approaching. There’s no margin of error anymore – if dropping it down to $400 was going to be ruinous, missing the entire check is disastrous.

    I wonder, how many voters are going to get pissed when they don’t get paid what they need this week despite Trump’s bragging he took action? Twitter and FB can spread his praise but that bank account will still be empty and bills are still due. They can’t even blame Congress or the States since Trump made a big deal out of telling them to take care of it – he looks like a weak loser who can’t seal the deal to the people he’s trying to look tough for. Looking impotent to save America right before an election is bad look……

    2
  30. mattbernius says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    If I were a betting man, I’d bet on them focusing their messaging on her prosecutorial career.

    Agreed on this as well. However, the challenge they face is one of messaging consistency. Trump has already signaled that he’s running on a strong Law and Order platform. He’s already been throwing accusations that Biden wants to abolish the police. So there’s going to be a challenge focusing on Harras as an over-zealous prosecutor AND that Biden is soft on crime.

    Alternatively, they can try to make the case that Harris was an overly progressive prosecutor (she wasn’t), but I don’t see how that helps suppress turn-out in Black communities.

    Beyond all of that, I’m not sure they fully grasp how well supported she is with Black women. And that’s critical as they are by far the most likely to vote. This recent poll doesn’t have the crosstabs to do Race/Gender, but it still gives you a sense: https://www.fairvote.org/dem_vp_poll_aug2020#Gender=2

    Note that recent polling had things closer, but Harris was still preferred by Black respondents: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/508416-poll-harris-warren-top-list-of-vp-picks-among-democratic-voters

    Also, the fact she’s already been publicly vetted I think is a critical advantage. As they say in politics, her negatives are already baked in.

    6
  31. An Interested Party says:

    I wonder how long until some purist will try to bring up and highlight that both Obama and Harris may be AA but not of slave origins and therefore not authentic.

    That’s already been done in the past, but hey, maybe Diamond and Silk can star in an attack ad against her, after all, they are more authentically black than she is, right? And contrary to HL92’s theory, I hardly think Harris will depress black turnout like, say, Hillary did in 2016, if anything, she’ll have more of a rallying effect due to the historic nature of her being on the ticket…just as black voters are pretty pragmatic in their support of Biden, I’m sure they’ll also be pragmatic regarding support for her…

    3
  32. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @senyordave:

    I’ll wager right now that if she runs in 2024, she gets knocked off by someone else in the primaries. They don’t like her now, so the opportunity to vote for her in 2024 is not a motivator as far as I can see.

    Nobody said they’ll flip to Trump. The argument was, and is, that between the perception that Biden winning is a done deal and dislike of her, enough of them to make a material difference to Senate races may just stay home.

  33. CSK says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:
    I think the reaction of a lot of people was “who cares what this has-been thinks.” Certainly it was mine.

    2
  34. CSK says:

    Sumner Redstone has died. He was 97.

  35. Mikey says:

    President Obvious Racist tweeted this:

    The “suburban housewife” will be voting for me. They want safety & are thrilled that I ended the long running program where low income housing would invade their neighborhood. Biden would reinstall it, in a bigger form, with Corey Booker in charge!

    Obligatory “not even bothering to hide it any more,” etc. etc.

    8
  36. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @mattbernius:

    The disconnect there is that she’ll be the Vice President, which is essentially a powerless role. It doesn’t matter if she’s law and order if her boss isn’t. They get to sell that a Biden admin will be soft on crime while simultaneously pointing out to AA voters that her record as a tough on crime prosecutor is less than friendly to them / “she isn’t one of you” so to speak.

    I’m not sure it’s of any value to segment black women any more than it is to segment AA voters as a whole. It’s fair to say that some black women like her, but it’s also accurate to say that, at least if my FB is any indicator, that a whole lot of them profoundly do not …

  37. KM says:

    @senyordave:

    The AA community isn’t going to somehow gravitate to Trump because they don’t like aspects of Harris’ background.

    @HarvardLaw92 :

    Assuming that the AA community is some monolithic voting bloc devoid of its own concerns & issues that will just unilaterally fall into line with whomever the DNC selects is folly.

    These are both great points. As @HL92 points, pretending all AA – indeed, any minority group who’s votes you’re courting- as a monolithic entity is asking for trouble. As much as everyone disparaged the attempt to get Kanye on the ballot to cynically pull away AA votes, it would have gotten at least a handful because that’s how people work. It just wouldn’t have been significant in any sort of way. People vote for celebrities and name recognition; they vote for and against concepts like “cop” or “female leader” all the time. Harris will rubs some people the wrong way and cost a few votes the same way any VP choice does- that’s a fact. The question is: how many is that?

    That’s where @senyordave’s point comes in. As displeased as they might be at Harris’ pick, a potential voter wouldn’t be going Trump unless that was already in the cards. In other words, not a significant amount of “safe” Dem votes. Trump’s toxicity, coupled with the damage he’s done to the AA community, means he’s not going to be the preferred choice unless one was already pro-Trump. Additionally, just like with the Kanye’s scam any votes he’d pull would most likely not be in states he needs to win. Let’s say he manages to get 10% of the AA community in GA to vote to flip to him – he’s already got GA. CA, NY, TX and the other big states are pretty set so he’s not making a big score. Most of the states in play aren’t going to net him a win depending on percentage of AA votes staying home because many of them don’t have a large enough AA population to swing that.

    1
  38. OzarkHillbilly says:
  39. a country lawyer says:

    @Scott: Harris father was from Jamaica. The black population of Jamaica was descended from slaves brought from west Africa.

    9
  40. Tyrell says:

    @MarkedMan: That is amazing. In many tornadoes and heavy wind storms there will be one house totally gone and the one next door suffers nary a broken window. I remember one tornado in Ohio where the news showed one family looking for their home! They found it down the block resting perfectly on the ground with very little damage!

    1
  41. KM says:

    @HarvardLaw92 :

    The disconnect there is that she’ll be the Vice President, which is essentially a powerless role.

    You and I know that. However, coming from someone who’s been pushing the Imperial Presidency to new heights, acting like the VP does nothing won’t work. Trump’s repeatedly pushed Pence as the guy who he gets to do and manage stuff like Jared – people asking questions about how such a “powerless” role is suddenly so powerful isn’t what they want happening.

    Also, most Law and Order types won’t care she’s in a “powerless” role. They assume it’s an innate quality of personality to favor rules rather then a trait you put on. So trying to sell Biden as a lawless commie wonder is not going to work outside of Cult45 circle where people don’t drink the cognition dissociation KoolAid. Harris’ “toughness” would be taken for granted as prosecutor and would be seen as a plus for the campaign to at least be a moderating voice.

    2
  42. CSK says:

    @Mikey:
    Even for Trump, that’s way, way over the racist top. And this is the guy who claims that there isn’t a racist bone in his body?

    1
  43. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @MarkedMan: All the laws of nature are inviolate, no matter how right or wrong our theories about them may be.

    1
  44. mattbernius says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    I’m not sure it’s of any value to segment black women any more than it is to segment AA voters as a whole. It’s fair to say that some black women like her, but it’s also accurate to say that, at least if my FB is any indicator, that a whole lot of them profoundly do not …

    Black women are an important segment as they are historically the most active and the most likely to vote. They also had depressed turn-out in 2020. We also saw that they as a block were responsible for pushing Doug Jones over the line (and have assisted other candidates). There’s a reason that Biden specifically pledged/chose a Black woman as his VP choice.

    Beyond that, I appreciate the anecdotal evidence of your Facebook cohort. I’m prepared to match them to the anecdotal evidence of the Black women I follow in my twitter feeds/lists who are really excited about Harris (with the notable exceptions of the “Abolish the Police” progressives). Additionally, I will again point to the polling (linked above) that shows Harris as the preferred VP candidate of the Black community in general.

    Additionally, we can also point to some of the polling/research (https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article236516903.html — its towards the bottom from internal Buttigieg research) during the Presidential cycle that showed that folks within Black Communities saw a lot of potential in Harris but questioned if the country was ready to elect a Black Woman (or if you prefer Woman of Color) in the wake of 2016. That combined with Biden’s strong support in that community (via his ties to Obama) most likely had a significant impact on the overall political calculus.

    But hey, this is all armchair quarterbacking. The choice has been made and we’ll see first where the polling goes and then after that how the election goes.

    My going theory is that Harris will help solidify turn-out within Black and other minority communities, but time will tell.

    4
  45. OzarkHillbilly says:

    From an interview with Katie Mack:

    In the book you mention that Stephen Hawking was very influential. What was it about his work that resonated with you?
    I found that stuff when I was, like, 10 years old and it resonated because it was all this mind-bending, weird stuff. The idea of black holes and space time and time travel, the big bang… these are all topics that just make your brain hurt thinking about them. Then, later on, I met him a lot because I was at Caltech [California Institute of Technology] as an undergrad and he would visit Caltech pretty often. Then when I was at Cambridge [University], I had an office near his, so I would see him all the time. He came to a talk I gave once, which was wild.

    Was that daunting?
    Yeah, because he heckled me! So technically, he didn’t mean to. I’d only been at Cambridge for a month, and I was very nervous because I was giving this talk about primordial black holes, which is an idea that Stephen Hawking was one of the first originators of. And as I was starting my talk, I put up the title slide and this mechanical voice says: “Thank you.” I thought maybe he was making a joke about how he came up with this idea and everybody laughed and I carried on. Then throughout the talk, every once in a while, he would just interject something like “Yes!” or “No!” Or “I don’t think so.” And I would just look at him and he didn’t say anything.

    So at the end of the talk, I asked somebody what was going on. And it was a lunchtime seminar and the way that his voice synthesiser worked is that it had this little thing that looked at his cheek and he would select words by winking. And apparently it malfunctions when he eats. So his cheek was moving and it was choosing words at random from this Quick Select menu: thank you; yes; no; maybe. Nobody warned me and I’m a grad student and I’m terrified. Here’s my hero in the audience and he’s heckling my seminar. So, “daunting” is a good word for that.

    3
  46. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    The AA folks on my FB are not sharing or discussing pieces like those. They’re primarily sharing and discussing this

  47. Kathy says:

    @gVOR08:

    I thought gravity was two theories, and one very dicey hypothesis.

    @MarkedMan:

    A scientific theory is usually made up of one or more natural laws.

  48. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @mattbernius:

    I’m to the point where I don’t give a great deal of weight to polling. It has become how the already sold convince themselves that they’re going to win.

    And again, I’m not saying she costs Biden the presidency. I’m saying it’s entirely possible Republicans manage to use this to shave a few points off of AA turnout, and for more than a few equally important (to them) races, that’ll be enough. I’d even go so far as to say that I suspect the RNC knows on some level that it’s going to lose the presidency and will instead focus a lot of its considerable resources on retaining the Senate.

    1
  49. Teve says:

    @gVOR08:

    Small peeve of mine – we understand evolution better than we understand gravity, but no one runs around saying, “Gravity is just a theory.”

    Yeah, but we are still figuring out things about evolution. For instance genetic drift plays a bigger role than we would’ve guessed a few decades ago.

  50. An Interested Party says:

    I’m to the point where I don’t give a great deal of weight to polling.

    But you do give a great deal of weight to what you see on FB? Ok…

    12
  51. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @HarvardLaw92: Lawyers disagreeing? I am shocked, shocked I tell you! 😉

    Seriously though, people see what they want to see, I really don’t have a dog in that fight as I’m voting Biden/Harris no matter what.

    2
  52. mattbernius says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    I’m to the point where I don’t give a great deal of weight to polling. It has become how the already sold convince themselves that they’re going to win.

    A position which, following your line of thinking, can be read as a dismissal of facts that run counter to the narrative you’ve already convinced yourself of (i.e. that Harris will not enjoy the support of Black communities or at least enough to cost the Dem’s senate seats).

    Effectively dismissing polling as salient data points (in a larger analytical framework) is just the opposite side of the “epistemological closure” coin as using polling as your only data points.

    11
  53. Mikey says:

    @HarvardLaw92: The AA folks on my FB (both as individuals and leaders of organized advocacy groups) are rather pleased with the Harris pick, so I guess YMMV. From my perspective, she’ll do a lot more good than harm, but I’m just a middle-aged white guy.

    3
  54. MarkedMan says:

    @Tyrell: I remember a picture from the 1966 (67?) South Chicago tornado of a dining room table set for dinner – and the house entirely gone around it. Up until that point “everyone knew” that a tornado could not touch down that close to the lake.

    1
  55. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @An Interested Party:

    Actually, I’m a great deal more inclined to take what people I know and interact with are saying publicly and to each other as indicative than I am of a poll which contacted unknown strangers, yes.

  56. MarkedMan says:

    @Kathy:

    A scientific theory is usually made up of one or more natural laws.

    That always makes me wonder: just who is studying the unnatural laws? Hail Cthulhu!

    One of my favorite T shirts: “Gravity, not just a good idea. It’s the law!”

    2
  57. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @mattbernius:

    It’s more “I take it with a grain of salt as being, at best, a flawed indicator”.

  58. Teve says:

    @Kathy: in the 18th and 19th centuries it was popular to call your new discovery a Law. Newton’s law of gravity, ohm’s law, etc. These things were later discovered to be special cases of larger, more accurate mathematical frameworks that we now call the theories of gravity and electromagnetism.

    1
  59. MarkedMan says:

    @Teve: And 25 years ago if I told a biologist that one of the hottest areas of evolution theory would have more than a hint of Lamarkism to it, they would have laughed out loud.

    1
  60. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    Fair enough. I’m writing in Eisenhower, as I did in 2016. I’m at the age where I’m tired of voting for a candidate I’m not enthused about out of some sense of party loyalty or tribal politics, so I just don’t any longer.

  61. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @MarkedMan: just who is studying the unnatural laws?

    Slowly raises hand from the Group W bench at the back of the room…

    3
  62. MarkedMan says:

    @HarvardLaw92: I’m the exact opposite. I know I live in a pretty small bubble. Sure I have friends that are Trumpers, but we don’t tend to talk politics. And it was only when I lived in the South that fellow whites felt free to spontaneously tell me about their fellow citizens that happened to be black. I have no illusions that many people outside that area feel the same way, but I don’t present enough cues to cause them to say it out loud, so I don’t know what they are really thinking.

    1
  63. wr says:

    @HarvardLaw92: ““He doesn’t need my vote to win and I don’t like her” isn’t exactly the realm of science fiction”

    I don’t think there are a lot of people who would vote for a Democrat who would be willing to give up their chance to vote against Trump. Because they know this is the closest they’ll ever get to being able to kick him in the balls.

    5
  64. wr says:

    @Scott: “I wonder how long until some purist will try to bring up and highlight that both Obama and Harris may be AA but not of slave origins and therefore not authentic.”

    It’s already been done by “purists” on the right…

  65. Jax says:

    Most of the discontent I’ve seen regarding Harris has been from the Bernie Bros. Now they’re DEFINITELY voting Libertarian. (eyeroll)

    What’s been interesting to me is some of the reaction from Trumpie women I know personally. They seem quite displeased with the reaction from the Trump crowd that has anything to do with calling Harris a whore, slept her way to the top, etc. I did not expect that. I guess it’s good to know that at least some conservative women have a limit to what you can say to “pwn the libs”.

    What’s REALLY amazing to me is how many people think COVID is just going to disappear after the election.

    3
  66. @Mikey:

    The AA folks on my FB (both as individuals and leaders of organized advocacy groups) are rather pleased with the Harris pick, so I guess YMMV

    If only there was a way to aggregate the opinions of your FB feed and other people’s FB feed and sample them in a way that would transcend the selective bias of a given FB feed… 🙂

    19
  67. Teve says:

    @MarkedMan: it has a hint of Lamarckism, but Lamarck’s central thesis is still wrong. The epigenetic changes fade in a generation or two.

    1
  68. wr says:

    @HarvardLaw92: “I’ll wager right now that if she runs in 2024, she gets knocked off by someone else in the primaries. They don’t like her now, so the opportunity to vote for her in 2024 is not a motivator as far as I can see.”

    Or maybe — and I know this is a wild thought here — “they” will observe how she functions in the role of vice-president and make their decision 2024 based on that.

    8
  69. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @MarkedMan:

    This was referring to the AA folks on my FB who don’t seem to have any qualms about saying exactly what they’re thinking about her. I generally will never discuss politics there, as it has the potential for professional repercussions in the age of cancel culture. My feed lit up with indignation from them almost immediately after the announcement became public, and it hasn’t slacked off. By no means do I think they’re a valid indicator of the AA community as a whole, but there are enough of them participating that I have to take note of it as reflecting at least a sizable portion of that community.

    1
  70. Teve says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    Fair enough. I’m writing in Eisenhower,

    Why even bother?

    3
  71. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @wr:

    Let’s bet $10,000 on it. You in?

  72. wr says:

    @HarvardLaw92: ” It’s fair to say that some black women like her, but it’s also accurate to say that, at least if my FB is any indicator, that a whole lot of them profoundly do not …”

    I am always eager to hear your opinions on matters of the law, but given the way you have referred to African-Americans in the past, somehow I’m not going to use you as a barometer of the way Black people feel about anything.

    16
  73. Daryl and his brother Darryl says:

    It’s clear, already, that Trump has no idea how to run against this ticket.

    Frankly I think he is jealous that Harris wears less make-up than him, and doesn’t have to spend two hours every morning doing her hair.

    5
  74. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @Teve:

    Because I can. I toyed with the idea of voting for Jorgensen, and tbh I may yet do so. I don’t care for her as a candidate, but I love the idea of a third party eventually forcing its way onto the debate stage. We’ll have to see how it goes.

  75. wr says:

    @HarvardLaw92: On what? 2024?

  76. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @wr:

    Fair enough, but I’m not reporting my opinions and statements. I’m reporting theirs. I’m as surprised at the opposition being as vocal as it is as anyone else.

    1
  77. HarvardLaw92 says:

    @wr:

    Yes. Let’s bet $10,000 on whether she gets the Dem nomination in 2024. We could even make it 100 if you like.

    Obviously if Biden chooses to run again there would be no bet to pursue, but I’m game.

  78. Kathy says:

    @MarkedMan:

    That always makes me wonder: just who is studying the unnatural laws?

    Lawyers. Legal scholars. Assorted dabblers.

    To paraphrase Dr. Sheldon Cooper, it’s not like we’ve ever found a rich vein of Constitution in the side of some mountain.

    3
  79. senyordave says:

    I would venture to guess that everyone who is a regular at OTB lives in a bubble. Most live in a fairly small bubble in that almost all their own regular contacts are affluent or better and reasonable well read. Some live in slightly larger bubbles. I seriously doubt that many people here have a lot of exposure to the poor or working poor or even lower middle class people.
    Mot people who vote in 2020 will have a relatively small knowledge of Kamala Harris’ background. I seriously doubt that a significant percentage of people will decide that can’t vote for Biden because of her career as a prosecutor. And that percentage will be offset by people who be energized by her appearance on the ticket and Trump ramping up the racism to 11. Promising suburban housewives they won’t have to live near these icky black people?

    3
  80. Mike says:

    Tommy new ad wants doug to vote for the wall tommy has trump’s back trumps say Mexico will pay for Tommy tuberville new ad says were going to pay for so can anyone tell me what’s going in al

  81. Teve says:

    @senyordave:

    I would venture to guess that everyone who is a regular at OTB lives in a bubble. Most live in a fairly small bubble in that almost all their own regular contacts are affluent or better and reasonable well read. Some live in slightly larger bubbles. I seriously doubt that many people here have a lot of exposure to the poor or working poor or even lower middle class people.

    I live in rural Florida. The county I live in went 71% for Trump, and the only reason that was so low is that 20% of the county is black. I have worked as a high school teacher in this county and retail at Home Depot, Lowes, and Tractor Supply. And during all four of those jobs, I was the working poor.

    “Everyone knows, when you make an assumption, you make an ass out of you and mption”. -Mitch Henessey

    3
  82. Daryl and his brother Darryl says:
  83. Neil Hudelson says:

    Sorry if this was posted yesterday and I missed it. Real Clear Politics moved some of their forecasts yesterday, in a pretty surprising way:

    South Carolina Senate: Rated as a Toss-Up
    Presidential Election, Missouri: Moved from “leans Republican” to “Toss up.”
    POTUS, South Carolina and Indiana: Moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

    TBF, RCP is pretty conservative (in the non-political sense). They rate the Michigan Senate race also as a “toss up,” to give you a sense of their definition.

    Still, interesting movement. South Carolina Senate polling has been light, but nonetheless many of the polls have shown the race to be within 1 or 2 points. If I were to bet on this, I would still put my money on Graham retaining his seat, but it’s certainly no sure thing at this point.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map.html

    5
  84. senyordave says:

    @Mikey: In normal times this would be a huge headline in any newspaper. You don’t have to even read between the lines. Its like something out of “Birth of a Nation”, where the kkk are the heroes of the picture. If he keeps it up Trump might actually get no AA votes except for Ben Carson and Diamond and Silk.

  85. An Interested Party says:

    It’s clear, already, that Trump has no idea how to run against this ticket.

    Indeed…and he has 83 days left to figure it out…

    Biting…Now I understand why Trump Tweeted about Maher this morning…

    And Trump had the nerve to try to trash Maher’s physical appearance…hey, Donny, you should worry less about what other people look like and more about having your lackeys do a better job of applying the bronzer to your face, as it is painfully obvious that their blending skills suck…

  86. senyordave says:

    @Teve: I said that everyone lives in some sort of bubble. Your bubble is almost certainly much different than the average OTB reader/contributor, and it sounds like it might be a larger bubble. In 1995 I lost my job and ended up doing a bunch of different things for a year, and my bubble changed a lot. I would still wager that most people here do not have a lot of direct exposure to the poor, working poor or middle class. It doesn’t mean they have no exposure.

    1
  87. Teve says:

    @An Interested Party: more than once have I seen women on Twitter posting a profile photo of trump and just saying BLEND!…BLEEENNNNDDDDD! 😀

    2
  88. Daryl and his brother Darryl says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    but it’s certainly no sure thing at this point.

    Amen…nothing is. Key to the SC race…does Biden have coat-tails? Does Trump?

    Biden/Harris need to run like they are 20 points down.
    And whatever you’ve done…it isn’t enough.

    1
  89. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @senyordave: I would still wager that most people here do not have a lot of direct exposure to the poor, working poor or middle class.

    OK, just got to say that I do. I would say it’s about 15/25/60 with couple rich friends topping it off. You are right tho, it’s still a bubble in that politically most are on the left side of the spectrum, a few in the middle (think JJ) and 2 on the right. We are all *hard core* environmentalists which is the common thread for most of us.

    **some of us more hard core than others, one way is that a couple are anti GM foods

    ETA on further thought more like 10/25/65

  90. Jen says:

    @Neil Hudelson: Another one is that MO-2 is now a toss-up. This is a +8 R district. Incredibly surprising to see Missouri move in this fashion.

    2
  91. Monala says:

    @Scott: but she is of slave origins. This nonsense is going around Twitter among right wingers. “She’s a descendant of a Jamaican slave owner!” Yes, because her ancestors were emslaved by him. Most African Americans have slave owner ancestry because their ancestors were raped.

    5
  92. Teve says:

    KING: He has reassigned or displaced 23 postal executives. He’s changed delivery policies, banned overtime and done other things to cut costs. So what has this all meant for employees? Kimberly Karol is the president of the Iowa Postal Workers Union and a postal clerk herself in Waterloo, Iowa. Hi.

    KIMBERLY KAROL: Good morning.

    KING: Are you feeling these changes that are being made in Iowa?

    KAROL: Yes, we are beginning to see those changes and how it is impacting the mail. Mail is beginning to pile up in our offices, and we’re seeing equipment being removed. So we are beginning to see the impact of those changes.

    KING: Curious – I hadn’t heard about this one – equipment being removed. What equipment?

    KAROL: The sorting equipment that we use to process mail for delivery. In Iowa, we are losing machines. And they already in Waterloo were losing one of those machines. So that also hinders our ability to process mail in the way that we had in the past.

    linky

    You could say that prohibiting overtime at the post office is some kind of necessary cost cutting measure. It’s wrong, but you could say it. What you can’t say is that removing automatic mail sorting machines is for any other reason than to damage service.

    What do you say about people like that?

    10
  93. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @Kurtz: This is actually a strength but he’s to naive about the real world to know it.

    The more axis’ of power that have to be navigated, the LESS ideology is a useful tool. In a multi-polar world, one must be transactional in or mantain a favorite climate to pursue their interests. Ideology is useful in a unipolar or bipolar world…which does not characterized today American political terrain.

    Trumps natural instinct to be transactional is the single trait thats enabled him to be President. Had he recognized that he transformed the Party and was its single power center, forging a guiding Ideology would have been the correct play to get him 4 more years.
    Instead, his over-transactional nature spawned the Lincoln Project, Never Trumper, and a host of other enemies close enough to him to damage him. Lincoln Project has very close sources that feed them information to tailor ads directly to Trump to goad him into unforced errors.

    Harris is built to be a successful politician in todays climate.

    5
  94. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @HarvardLaw92: I think the key here is that most of these disaffected folks already lump Biden into the Prison Industrial Complex beginnings in the 90s. Harris just confirms their suspicions. My wife has already showed me several videos she was forwarded about all the millions of black men B&H are responsible for incarcerating. Of course, it was either a black person’s voice or a black person the video with small allusions to the lower numbers of incarcerations in the last 4 years.

    I think this is Trumps play…they’ll roll out the standard attack on TV…but the real groin kicks are going to come in social media shared videos and posts. There is tangible anger towards Harris to be capitalized on. I mentioned before that my Oakland relatives hate her. A few of them I really trust.. and they say she wasn’t down for the brothas. I can appreciate that— but not enough to not vote for Biden.

    3
  95. Sleeping Dog says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    …referring to the AA folks on my FB…

    You’ve fallen into and are doubling down on the fallacy that a subsection of your world reflects the larger society. Your arguments may very well be valid, but at this point are totally unsubstantiated. In a few days we’ll have the results from polling firms that will give us a clearer view on how the AA community and other groups.

    8
  96. Monala says:

    Ya know, I find it curious that HL92 spent the last few months on this blog proclaiming himself Mr. “Law and Order,” opposing the protests against police brutality, and even saying he would have opposed the Civil Rights Movement to the extent that it impeded and inconvenienced anyone (which, hello, it frequently did).

    Now all of a sudden, he has a bunch of black friends on Facebook who don’t like cops? Unless he keeps the side of himself he shows here on OTB hidden from his real-life friends and acquaintances…

    8
  97. Michael Reynolds says:

    Kamala Harris is not going to depress turn-out, that’s nonsense. First because Vice Presidents scarcely matter. Second because the idea that a lawless yet somehow tough-on-crime president is going to leverage Harris’s tough-on-crime past is silly – there’s not a Democrat or D-leaning independent alive who’s going to fall for it. Third because black woman wanted something and black women got what they wanted, and they are a practical bunch of voters.

    The race is stuck at about 50 to 42, with 8% undecided. Undecideds do not break for incumbents.

    But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

    Biden is ahead in FL, MI, WI and PA. He’s within MOE in NC, TX and GA. This is not a done deal but Kamala Harris won’t move the numbers by a tenth of a percent in the end.

    5
  98. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Monala:
    HL92 is bored. He’s concern trolling to entertain himself.

    7
  99. wr says:

    @HarvardLaw92: Appreciate the offer, but things have been too crazy for too long for me to make bets on the future. Anyway, I’m not saying she’s going to be the nominee in 2024 — I’ve just read so many people saying that this or that outcome is certain for her in four years, and she hasn’t even taken the oath yet. She may turn out to be the greatest VP in history, or she could up end tied with Spiro T. Agnew. Or she could be Madame President in March.

    5
  100. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @Scott: Already happening…it doesn’t really matter though because Black people generally accept people who embrace the culture. Whats hurts people, even black people is a clear disdain and rejection of culture and history. I would say that Harris’ Howard and Sorrority bonifides thoroughly insulates her from that criticism.

    For me personally, I have scar tissue with Jamaicans. My uncle married a wonderful lady from Jamaica…but in America, I find them to be very much into social status when dealing with non- carribean blacks. For years, when I visited my uncle and his in laws were there, none of them would to me. I guess they thought I was some poor southern black at the bottom of the stack. I dont like to discuss my vocation with people I just met–so while I heard about their professorships, medical/law schools, and Jamaican insider politics. My conversation was sort of dismissed…until one year I visited and my uncle congratulated my on a recent promotion in front of them. Now everyone was chatty kathy and wanted to know more about me and my opinion about things. They had no idea I was a military officer before so I didn’t measure up in their world. One of my best golfing buddies is Jamaican, love the guy, but around his friend he always brings up my military career and rank. My personal experiences with Jamaicans colors my view of Harris…I sure it will others. Its not about Harris through– Trump must go. He isnt American in ANY sense of the word.

    2
  101. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @HarvardLaw92: I give her, assuming B&H prevail in November, about a 30-70 chance of becoming the Headliner. Perhaps her experience as VP will add more to her toolkit to connect with a broader swath of people between now and then…but as it stands now she’s in the right role for her skill set.

  102. MarkedMan says:

    @senyordave:I grew up in a working class neighborhood, with a construction worker father and a housekeeper mother. I’m now a professional. I spent years developing applications used in factories and spent thousands of hours working with factory workers who used those applications, and socialized with them from time to time. In more recent years some of my development partners were top academicians at prestigious universities, domestic and foreign. For two years I lived in a West African village with no electricity and no running water. I’ve developed products for some of the most elite surgeons in the world and socialized with them too. I could go on and on about the diversity of my interactions, but to me, it only reinforces how much of a bubble I live in. Despite interacting with an extraordinarily diverse range of people I have only scratched the surface in what is out there. And every time I find myself amongst a new group I’m surprised by differences in how they view the world. (Surprised and overjoyed, actually. To me it’s one of the most interesting things in life.) So I know that I’m missing 99% of the viewpoints out there. Bubble doesn’t begin to describe it.

    3
  103. gVOR08 says:

    @senyordave: I’m a retired engineer who worked for small manufacturing companies in the midwest. Most of the people I worked and socialized with voted for Trump. I liked them and would have loaned most of them a hundred til payday on their word. I sympathize with their feeling they’ve been screwed over. They have been. They’ve followed the rules, worked hard, and keep falling further behind. Their understanding of how this happened is unsophisticated and their reaction has been completely counterproductive. And the GOPs have been very good at activating latent racism. But they’re mostly good people.

    2
  104. SKI says:

    @An Interested Party:

    …and he has 83 days left to figure it out…

    Given early and absentee voting, far less than that.

    2
  105. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @mattbernius: I believe Im well positioned in FB land to capture black sentiment. Ive got Black Trumpies, Black Never Trumpers, Black Bernie Bros, Elizabeth Warren Supporters, and Biden supporters.

    I actually had to snooze the Trumpies for 30 days. Couldn’t take it anymore…but I need to know what they thinking so I dont delete them.

    I stand by my original assessment of moderate excitement followed by rehashes of all the warts I discussed in other posts. The most excited are the Warren fan and those most invested in the Black sorority experience. The Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority has a very distinct rally call, Ive already seen memes of the look that will be on Pence’s face when its screamed from the audience during a debate. Hilarious.

    2
  106. wr says:

    @Jim Brown 32: “My personal experiences with Jamaicans colors my view of Harris…I sure it will others.”

    Except those who are able to see past ethnic stereotypes.

    2
  107. Monala says:

    Another point to note: Shirley Chisholm, Stokely Carmichael, Biggie Smalls, Malcolm X, and Colin Powell were all children of immigrants from the Caribbean. Do we really want to claim that none of them are African-American?

    3
  108. Michael Reynolds says:

    Liz Cheney is on Twitter calling Kamala Harris a radical liberal. So she’s either a radical leftie or a law n’ order stormtrooper. They’ve got nothing.

    The funny thing is if they keep calling her a radical leftie that will encourage one end of the Democratic spectrum, and if they harp on about her prosecutorial toughness it’ll encourage the other end of the Democratic spectrum, but in neither case will it cause a single Team Blue voter to refrain from voting or still less to vote for Trump.

    7
  109. Teve says:

    @Michael Reynolds: the Do-Nothing Democrats will Hurt God. There are people who believe that sentence.

    3
  110. Kurtz says:

    @Jim Brown 32:

    Perhaps her experience as VP will add more to her toolkit to connect with a broader swath of people between now and then…but as it stands now she’s in the right role for her skill set.

    I suspect that many primary voters preferred a safe play for this particular election. Buttigieg’s sexual orientation created questions of electability. The Clinton experience dimmed the prospects for the female candidates and the perception of the re-emergence of overt racism had a similar affect on someone like Harris in addition to sexism. (I say perception, because I’m not entirely sure that most people realized how pervasive racism is in the SE.)

    Recall the electability concerns surrounding Obama in 2008. That election was almost assured to go Dem, yet the question was at the forefront of a decent swath of the primary electorate.

    2
  111. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @wr: Stereotypes are a social navigation tool that can be used productively or non-productively. When I say it colors my view…I dont mean in any negative or positive sense. It means have anecdote evidence that could be useful in a social or professional engagement to make a connection.

    Jamaicans (in America) being into perceived social status is no different than rich white people being into it. Not my cup of tea but it is what it is. If you have to navigate diverse human terrain to live the life you desire…these are useful things to know. I operate off stereotypes alot….always knowing that each individual engagement is different and you will have to season to taste or be prepared to apply a different stereotype as a baseline. When I have to interact with black conservatives…I dont personally know. I start out with the stereotypes I have about white (southern) men.

    Im really all about connecting with people beyond that inital persona we all put foward in social setting. If you piece that armor, you will typically find a very interesting person underneath it. Probably not the best philosophy for everyone.. but it’s worked for me.

    5
  112. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @HarvardLaw92:

    I’m writing in Eisenhower,

    By all means, do what floats your boat, but what’s the point? It’s not like anybody will ever actually know or it will send a message.

    6
  113. Mikey says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    If only there was a way to aggregate the opinions of your FB feed and other people’s FB feed and sample them in a way that would transcend the selective bias of a given FB feed…

    I know, right? I think I’ve heard of some new sort of alchemy that can do such magic…what’s it called…rolling? No, that’s not it…it’ll come to me, right on the tip of my tongue… 😉

    7
  114. @Mikey: Maybe this is what you are looking for.

    2
  115. Just nutha ignint cracker-- says:

    @Mike: Was that comment supposed to be completely incoherent? If so, congratulations! You succeeded beyond your wildest dreams!

    2
  116. MarkedMan says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: You are a vile dog, sir, a vile dog…

    Ya got me…

    3
  117. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Jim Brown 32: The thing with your Jamaican in laws may just be a Britishism thing though. My mom was from Northern Ireland and when she and my dad moved to a retirement community, she was all about who she’d met there who was a former CEO, a famous foreign missionary (she was a lifelong Baptist), the pastor of the church they went to being a high ranking military officer who retired to the ministry, etc. And I was their “son who lives in Longview, WA.” I worked at the time as a part-time instructor.

    Two years later, I had transformed into “my son who is a university professor (actually foreign language conversation instructor, but Koreans are excessively polite about preserving the dignity of at least some people, so I was always called “professor”) who came all the way from Korea to visit me.” Status mattered to her in ways that I was never taught to care about (fortunately, both my parents got that right).

    3
  118. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Monala: Kamala Harris is the only one of those people that the bigots need to not be African American. The others can be whatever they want.

    1
  119. Monala says:

    I saw a great comment on Twitter, saying that all these rightwingers talking about Kamala Harris having a slave owner ancestor and expecting black folks to be shocked and appalled (when in reality, we’re like, “So what? So do most of us”), is because they really do believe their myths about benevolent slavery.

    6
  120. mattbernius says:

    @Jim Brown 32:

    I believe Im well positioned in FB land to capture black sentiment.

    Yup, no question there based on what you have shared in the past.

    I stand by my original assessment of moderate excitement followed by rehashes of all the warts I discussed in other posts. The most excited are the Warren fan and those most invested in the Black sorority experience. The Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority has a very distinct rally call, Ive already seen memes of the look that will be on Pence’s face when its screamed from the audience during a debate. Hilarious.

    That matches my anecdotal twitter experience (I don’t do really do Facebook any more and my twitter feeds are far more diverse). I think most of your posts have been spot on in terms of reflecting the sentiment I’ve heard. Definitely the Oakland folks I know are not fans, but they also are among the most progressive folks in my circle (which could be a different slice of Oakland than yours).

    4
  121. a country lawyer says:

    I have a close friend who is Indian and grew up under apartheid in South Africa. We were talking and I thought he would be excited about Harris selection. I was surprised when he said he didn’t like her because she bragged about her African heritage and didn’t talk about being half Indian. And according to him she looks more Indian than black. I kind of think like JB32-it’s a nice combination.

  122. Teve says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker–: Bot Malfunction.

  123. An Interested Party says:

    By the way, I notice that all four members of the Squad won their primaries, despite the hype from certain quarters that tried to drum up some kind of drama about whether or not they would all win their races…

    5
  124. Kathy says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    Oh, it’s simple: they should attack Harris for not fitting in neatly in their talking points and thus being so hard to attack.

    5
  125. wr says:

    @a country lawyer: As long as we’re using personal anecdotes to capture entire populations, I can say that my two Indian-American grad students — both highly qualified professionals in other fields now going for their MFA — are over the moon about a VP nominee of Indian descent.

    And since I can personally vouch for my own anecdotes, and for all I know you’re pulling yours out of the air, then I win.

    Wow, it’s really easy to win an argument without data!!!

    7
  126. @MarkedMan: I was inspired by the mention of “rolling” and could not resist.

  127. @wr: It does make things easier.

  128. inhumans99 says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl:

    It is funny because you are so correct, Trump/the GOP really are at a disadvantage trying to run against this Biden/Harris ticket. There was an article on Politico a few days back that Trump would have loved it if Biden picked Susan Rice (Benghazi, I guess…but she was part of Obama and Clinton’s team, yes?)). Trump can now claim that no, no…it is Harris that he is happy to run against but we both know that is just not true.

    As Michael R and a myriad number of other folks (including myself) have noted…Trump does not know how to run against someone that is not named Hillary Clinton. He was able to get Benghazi, but her emails, lock her up, etc. to stick oh so well to Clinton but the same juvenile attempts to get a nickname to stick to Biden fell flat (Sleepy Joe has yet failed to catch on unless you are a die-hard Trump fan) and I suspect any attempts to tag Kamala with a cutesy nickname will also fall flat.

    Also, Harvard…not going to get into a back/forth but the GOP is still stressed about being able to hold the Senate even after Biden’s VP pick announcement, so I really don’t think Kamala is going to hurt Democrats chances and like most folks see his pick as a net positive as we work to take back the White House. Politico has stories up where people are expressing a surprising amount of concern that folks like Graham may have to fight to stay elected as a Senator this fall. They also had a story that they are pivoting from trying to knock down Democrat Senators/Reps they feel are vulnerable to now focusing on defending members of their own team who if they are not careful will not be able to hold on to their seats in November.

    I think as much as stories like folks being worried about Graham’s chances are intended to try and give the impression of a horse race that there is also some element of truth that the GOP is actually aware that they have to take the elections seriously and that it will not be a cakewalk for GOP Senators to get re-elected.

    3
  129. a country lawyer says:

    @wr: Who suggests relating a casual conversation between two friends somehow can be extrapolated to capture an entire population? My comment was made to point out that racial heritage doesn’t always provide an expected preference-political or otherwise. Seems you’re the one pulling an argument out of thin air-or somewhere.

    1
  130. Sleeping Dog says:

    Thinking about it last evening I came across an interesting data point that Trump contributed $6000 $3000 to Harris’ campaigns in 2011 and 2013, while Ivanka gave her $2000 in 2014. I thought I saw it a Digby.

    1
  131. Sleeping Dog says:
  132. CSK says:

    @Sleeping Dog: @Sleeping Dog:
    I mentioned this. It was $6000 from Trump to Harris in 2011 and 2013, and $2000 from Ivanka to Harris in 2014.

  133. Sleeping Dog says:

    @CSK:

    Sigh

  134. MarkedMan says:

    @Sleeping Dog: I assumed the $6000 number came because both he and “Melania” gave the $3000 max. But that was just speculation based on all kinds of ignorance.

  135. Monala says:

    @MarkedMan: Heh. Yesterday someone posted the clips from SNL with Maya Rudolph as Kamala Harris during the Dem primary debates. In one of them, Kate McKinnon as Liz Warren talks about all of her small donors: “An auto worker who sent me $10… a third-grader in Indiana who sent me 53 cents … and an immigrant and stay-at-home mom named Melania who sent me $800…”

    3
  136. Monala says:

    California, Florida and Texas have all surpassed NY in total number of Covid cases. Mississippi has joined Louisiana, Florida and Arizona in surpassing NY for total number of cases per million.

  137. Kathy says:

    So, New Zealand registered 4 (four) cases of COVID-19 community spread, and in response, PM Jacinda Ardern set a 3-day lock down on Auckland, heightened alert status on the rest of the country, postponed the dissolution of Parliament, and might postpone the election.

    You can read all about it here (no paywall).

    All this may seem excessive over four cases, but it’s exactly how you stop an outbreak cold, rather than letting it spread. And this is what good leadership looks like.

    4
  138. CSK says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    And remember Trump’s encomium to Pelosi: “Nancy, you’re the best!”

    1
  139. wr says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: Next up: Are Trump voters a cult or a dessert topping?

    (Man I hope someone else around here is old enough to get the reference…)

    7
  140. wr says:

    @a country lawyer: “Seems you’re the one pulling an argument out of thin air-or somewhere.”

    Sorry, a couple of other posters were doing exactly that. (One even insists that consulting his circle of acquaintances is much better than polling because reasons.) So no disrespect meant to you — your comment just echoed with the others and it got the response…

    3
  141. Kathy says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    No big deal. It was in case they decided to commit any kind of legally questionable activities in California. everyone does it, lots of people say.

  142. Mister Bluster says:

    Saw the first Biden lawn sign I’ve seen this year. Murphysboro, Illinois.

    1
  143. EddieInCA says:

    Wow.

    Fascinating discussion.

    As far back as March of 2019, I said it should be Biden/Harris. Based on policy, she wasn’t my first choice as VP. I would have preferred Biden/Booker. But I’m not an idealist. I’m a pragmatist. Working in film and TV for so many years has taught me that it’s hard to get everything you want, ever. No. I’ve learned that real change some incrementally. I support many of the policies espoused by Bernie and Warren, but i believed both of them would/could not beat Trump. Why? Because they’d be very easy to demonize. Americans as a whole are very easy to manipulate. Trump has proven that, but before Trump you had Rush, Hannity, and O’Reilly manipulating people daily.

    I believed Harris would be the perfect compliment to Biden. She’s Black/Mixed race. He’s white. He’s old. She’s young. He’s east coast. She’s west coast. He flubs words occasionally. She speaks technically and correctly pretty much always. He’s and old school moderate. She’s more progressive than people give her credit. He’s accommodating. She will cut you. I also knew of the closeness between her and Beau Biden, which I claimed would be the one piece of information that would separate her from her rivals for the VP slot.

    I look forward seeing polls in the next few weeks. I expect Biden to widen his lead in many states.

    Also, I expect Trump go go even more racist, which will backfire.

    3
  144. a country lawyer says:

    @wr: No problem.

  145. An Interested Party says:

    One of the biggest mistakes Republicans/conservatives are making against Biden is trying to paint him as some kind of senile, doddering fool…they lower expectations for him so much that when he is merely able to read a script off a teleprompter, or walk down a ramp by himself, or drink a glass of water with one hand, he surpasses expectations…I mean, outside of the fever swamps on the right, does anyone seriously believe that Biden didn’t even have any say in picking Harris as his running mate? It is particularly amusing that these attacks are coming from people who support the feeble-in-chief in the White House…

  146. CSK says:

    @EddieInCA:
    But…but…he’s the least racist person you ever met. He’ll tell you so himself.

    2
  147. steve says:

    ” Are Trump voters a cult or a dessert topping?”

    I would say a floor wax!

    Steve

    5
  148. mattbernius says:

    @EddieInCA:

    Also, I expect Trump go go even more racist, which will backfire.

    That’s a safe bet considering he just doubled down on how he’s working to keep the suburbs predominantly White at the press conference today.

    1
  149. Tyrell says:

    @Bill: I remember the first time I saw “Dirty Dozen”: on the big screen theater. Director Aldrich had a great cast.
    I can’t count the times that I have seen that movie.

  150. Mikey says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: Hahahaha awesome!

    1
  151. Sleeping Dog says:

    @EddieInCA:

    Sounds like a perfect marriage 🙂

  152. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker: Interesting context I hadn’t considered. Thanks…

  153. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @mattbernius: My Oakland relatives are very much a part of ‘Hustle Culture.’ They are survivalists–very much about making a buck outside of 9to5s and legal–but illegal if necessary. For the older ones–the latter activities put them in direct conflict with Harris’ Law and Order DA office

  154. Jim Brown 32 says:

    @a country lawyer: When I first saw her I thought she was creole–think Beyonce’s mother. My grandfather’s mother was creole and looked like a white Florida Evans (from Good Times) and he married a woman who’s father was half white. As a result–my own mother is lighter than Harris even though I’m about Tiger Woods complexion.

    I was a little surprised to find she was half Indian because Id never seen that mix before. I find Indian women to be quite attractive–the caramel complexion and dark hair are stunning. When I was younger I tried to have a go at a couple but came up empty–they don’t seem to be too down with the Brothers (at least not in the South). Kudos to Mr Harris–

    1
  155. Teve says:

    For the next three days I’m the same age as Taika Waititi.

  156. DrDaveT says:

    @wr:

    Next up: Are Trump voters a cult or a dessert topping?

    Floor wax. (Does that establish my bona fides?)

  157. Gustopher says:

    @wr:

    @Jim Brown 32: “My personal experiences with Jamaicans colors my view of Harris…I sure it will others.”

    Except those who are able to see past ethnic stereotypes.

    I have yet to meet one of those people. You can be aware of bias, and inwardly acknowledge it, to reduce the effect that stereotypes have on short-circuiting your thoughts and decisions, but you can’t really eliminate it.

    We grow up surrounded by stereotypes, and they are tightly ingrained. Plus people are great at seeing patterns — so good at it that they will see patterns even where there aren’t any.

    I don’t mean this in a fatalistic “well, we’re going to be biased no matter what we do, so shrug” way, but in a “we can always do better, and should never get complacent” way. I see Jim Brown 32 recognizing his bias, and suspect it affects him less than he says it does.

    1