Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, January 27, 2021
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71 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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electric vehicles close to a tipping point of mass adoption:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/22/electric-vehicles-close-to-tipping-point-of-mass-adoption
I live in BFE Florida—but somewhere near both I-10 and I-75 with a Tesla charging station—and 5 years ago spotting a Tesla was worth pointing out. Now it’s a weird day if I don’t see a dozen.
Fox hosts accuse media of ‘gushing’ over Biden – after four years of fawning over Trump
Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham comments have raised eyebrows and struck many as hypocritical
Fox News on Media Bias: Then and Now | The Daily Social Distancing Show (2:19)
Portland mayor pepper-sprays maskless man after Covid rules confrontation
Ted Ted Ted… That is not how it’s done. First you pepper spray him in the eyes, then you kick him in the nuts. You don’t help wash his eyes out.
Marjorie Taylor Greene indicated support for executing prominent Democrats in 2018 and 2019 before running for Congress
Yes, “teams of people”, because construction company VPs are just too busy to manage their very very important facebook accounts which are very central to the business.
@Teve: Did you see this the other day? Electric car batteries with five-minute charging times produced
@OzarkHillbilly:
People who want to believe that MTG had “teams of people” managing her FB account will purport to believe it.
I’ve thought for a while now that the right-wing information bubble has put American democracy in peril.
Kevin Drum argues that it’s not really all that bad
The number of Trumpkins who are busy trying to convince themselves and others that the Capitol Building invasion and takeover was a “false flag”operation by Antifa and BLM is growing by leaps and bounds.
At first they claimed it and took pride in it. Now? Not so much.
@Teve: Drum sometimes bends over backwards to be “reasonable”. He didn’t directly address RW misinformation, but pointed out, rightly, that the system held, that election officials did their jobs and judges threw out the nonsense lawsuits. And he’s right, democracy is strong, and it held. But I can’t help but feel in the back of my mind that democracy will continue to hold. Until it doesn’t.
And drives me nuts with it sometimes.
Registration cards of Dutch Holocaust victims to go on display
Anne Frank’s card.
@gVOR08: @OzarkHillbilly: i just came from FB where some Trump boot-licker was claiming Trump should get the Nobel Prize in Medicine for his heroic work on the vaccine.
Some of these people are delusional.
The edit function is borked in a major way this AM.
And the rest are racist pos.
@Teve:
I wasn’t aware Trump had invented it.
@CSK: We aren’t up to Dr. Crusher’s med lab, where she could sequence the DNA of an alien bug and brew up a vaccine that afternoon. But the speed with which we were able to create not one but several vaccines (most of which Trump had nothing to do with) speaks to us getting pretty good.
@CSK:
It’s not different from people who deny the Holocaust happened while simultaneously trying to justify it or imply something like it should happen again.
@Kylopod:
Well, it is different in the sense that the Trumpkins aren’t denying the Capitol invasion happened; they’ve just decided to deny taking part in it, whereas at first they were proud to take credit for the mayhem. After all, “their” president told them to do it.
It will be interesting to see how they persuade themselves that that nitwit realtor from Texas was in fact a BLM operative.
@OzarkHillbilly: Have you seen the new Ford Mustang Mach E ev? Hot, hot!
0-60: 7 seconds, top speed 111 mph, 266 hp. Not bad for an Eveready machine.
The price comes in at a whopping $43,995. I doubt you will see one of those on Price is Right!
The only problem is it will not have that Ford V8 sound!
@CSK:
And Holocaust deniers don’t deny that the Nazis murdered many Jews. They deny the scale of it, and they deny there was a systematic attempt to wipe the Jews out. The objective is to make the Germans out to be guilty of no more than ordinary war atrocities, so their “side” can be defended more easily.
It can’t be an exact analogy because we’re talking about two very different sorts of events. The commonality is an attempt by advocates of the beliefs that led to the event trying to wash their hands clean of responsibility for what happened, so they can go on promoting those same radical, murderous beliefs without the shame arising from the consequences.
@Tyrell: While I hope my wife’s next vehicle will be an E-car, I doubt it will be one of those. Tho it would be fun.
@Teve: I will have to read his whole piece in greater detail later, but the beginning sets me off a bit
The thing is, it is not just “the conventional wisdom” that is concerned about democracy globally. A lot of very serious, knowledgeable political scientists have been concerned about democratic erosion for several years now. Poland is a clear case (as it Hungary).
@CSK:
“Victory has a thousand parents. Defeat is an orphan.”
And in the Trump and post-Trump eras, it’s acceptable* to defend the brave patriots who did as their fuhrer told them, while condemning the whole thing as a false flag operation to tarnish said fuhrer.
*For trumpers.
@Steven L. Taylor: he makes some good points, but it’s not hard to imagine Jan 6 going differently with a smarter, more capable asshole in Trump’s place.
@gVOR08:
We’re almost there.
My understanding is that the design of the Moderna vaccine took all of two days.
There are plenty of caveats, though. First, the mRNA technology took years to develop. Second, the design was that fast only after the SARS-CoV-2 genome was worked out, which took more than two days. Third, testing for safety and efficacy took months.
Now we know the mRNA technology is generally safe. But we still need to determine, in future vaccines, whether the protein they induce cells to produce is 1) also safe, and 2) is effective. So, the need to hold testing trials will mean months from outbreak to vaccine. But the speed at which they can be developed means also that testing can take place soon after the outbreak.
Oh, and fourth: as we are learning, mass production and distribution of vaccines is still a problem.
@Kathy:
Production and distribution will always be a problem as long as the default is efficient supply chains. If the decision is to build (expensive) added capacity that won’t be used production and distribution will be a bottle neck. Pfizer closed a production plant in Belgium(?) to retool it for increased production of the vaccine and while by years end, that facility will produce more vaccine than if they didn’t retool, it the short run that is exacerbating shortages.
A few weeks ago there was an article on why California hospitals are struggling so badly and one of the things it pointed out is that Cali has one of the lowest bed to population ratios in the country. That makes care more cost effective, but now they don’t a place or staff to put all the patients.
@Sleeping Dog:
I’ve actually been wondering about this. If we can cut down the time to develop vaccines and get the cost down, we may develop vaccines for a lot more things. I could envision a quarterly jab to get protection against the latest cold, flu, etc. Capacity would naturally go up and the same mechanism and delivery points could be used for emergency vaccinations.
@Kathy:
It takes a far greater capacity for cognitive dissonance than I have to be able to do that.
@MarkedMan:
Long term demand will increase production, while short term demand normally simply increases prices. If mRNA vax achieve the promise, then we may have lots of vaccines for stuff we don’t bother with now and that would result in increased production capability that potentially can be switched when the next covid-19 like pandemic occurs. The question then becomes how easy is it to adapt a production facility for a different vaccine? Knowing nothing about the production of mRNA vax, I’ve no idea.
Some dude on a NYT podcast said the best estimate is that 1/3 of the US population has been infected with Sars-cov-2. I waited to post about this until I talked to my friend Tara who is an epidemiologist, and she said no it’s probably more like 1/4. JFC.
@OzarkHillbilly:
36 years ago when I moved here, I became convinced that Portland’s unofficial motto should be “Things sure are different here”
For people hoping that Qanon would end with the inauguration, keep in mind the Millerites, who kept revising the day of the end of the world over and over. They’re still around, 176 years later.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Well yes, that’s how it’s done…here.
I moved here 36 years ago, and quickly realized that the city motto* should be
*And the state motto should be “xenophobes unite”
@Teve:
It’s difficult to keep up with these loons, but I believe one of their latest “beliefs” is that President Trump will be inaugurated on March 4.
@CSK: I’m 44. So I will probably go to my grave with QAnon still extant.
@Teve:
First of all, I’m not sure who claimed QAnon would go away after the inauguration. It isn’t the first time they’ve had to revise their predictions: they also did it after Mueller ended his investigation without an arrest warrant for Tom Hanks.
That said, it’s not always easy to tell how much life crackpot movements have left in them. After the killing of Osama Bin Laden there quickly arose a conspiracy theory that he wasn’t really dead. That theory is still around today (Trump tweeted about it last year), but it turned out to be much, much more minimal than I expected. I thought it was going to be something at least as big as the moon-hoax theories. Apparently, the crackpots overall simply lost interest in OBL.
On yesterday’s topic about lies, I got to thinking the Constanza maxim “It’s not a lie if you believe it.”
If you’re deluded about something, that nevertheless seems true to you, it feels true. So propagating a delusion is not, strictly speaking, a lie. But it does require to ignore or rationalize away a great deal of contrary evidence, where such exists.
Consider Linus Pauling. there’s no question the man was a brilliant biochemist, who made significant contributions to the field (he won a Nobel prize in chemistry, and later one for peace). But he then took up the cause of mega doses of vitamins as a cure-all.
Significantly, when faced with contrary evidence in the form of peer reviewed papers in reputable journals (like the New England Journal of Medicine), his reaction was to threaten to sue the journals and the papers’ authors.
What does that mean? To me, it means Pauling knew he couldn’t refute the evidence or the studies, so he resorted to threats. Surely he knew a legal ruling is meaningless in scientific matters. If every court in the land declares Pi to be equal to 3, the fact remains the ratio of a circle’s diameter to its circumference remains 3.14159 etc.
Next he tried to rationalize things away. If a study claimed high doses of vitamin C did not affect the course of cancer, he claimed the results were tainted by also treating the patients with radiation or chemotherapy.
I see a level of doublethink involved. Pauling believes mega doses of vitamin C prevent and cure all sorts of diseases, but at some level he realizes this is not so. and yet, he clings to the delusion. I won’t speculate as to why, but it’s instructive to see this can happen to a brilliant scientists, well acquainted with scientific standards of evidence.
I have little doubt Trump is not merely claiming the election was fraudulent. That is to say, in his own mind he’s not lying, he really believes it, and no amount of contrary evidence will change his mind. But at some level he knows this is not so.
His enablers are far more guilty. They know he’s lying. Some might have deluded themselves by now, but I don’t think so. I mena people like Hawley, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, etc. Even those merely asking for assurances about the election, they know that’s based on a lie.
And then there are the Trump cultists and other supporters. They may believe the lie. People believe big lies more readily. For whatever reason, they trust Trump, and think he’s telling them the truth. Add the long term baseless claims of fraud prevention by the GOP, and why should they doubt it?
Now, trump may not be capable of changing his mind due to mere evidence, but he does know he cannot refute it. So he resorts to threats. And he may think, delusionally or not, that he can convince enough people of his belief to overturn the results.
In case anyone didn’t think that covid screening could somehow be worse, China says “Hold our beer.”
China rolls out anal swab coronavirus tests, saying it’s more accurate than throat method
Just don’t mix up the testing equipment.
@Jen:
And a hearty “amen” to that.
Per CNN, Melania Trump is said to be seeking office space “in the Palm Beach area” to continue her “Be Best” initiative. I guess Ma-a-Lago isn’t big enough to accommodate her and her husband’s offices. Either that or she’s preparing to move out completely and divorce the creep.
Maybe she could call it “The Office of Vacuity and Self-Absorption.” I’m not sure what else she has to contribute to the national dialogue, other than: “I really don’t care, do u?”
Palm Beach conducting a ‘legal review‘ of the loser using Mar-a-Lago as a residence.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Holy cow, that then and now youtube is awesome. There is a whole lot of projection going on at Fox News right now as you can tell the FOX critters are straight up bummed that Fox will no longer be the go to source for news for Biden and his team.
TC and Hannity loved that even though everyone kept saying that yes, Fox News is the king of the cable news channels, this still means you are reaching a fairly small percentage of Americans who watch TV, but over the past 4-6 years (also during the time Trump was making noise about running for office) Fox would say something nasty about liberals, and instead of preaching to the choir (their TV watching audience) they knew, again, they knew that the audience who would see/hear their words was much larger than what was reported in the ratings due to amplification from Trump and his team in the White House.
Now, they are back to preaching to the choir which kind of sucks. Fox finds themselves in the odd position of now having to figure out how to worm their way back into the White House press room or suing for access to White House briefings, something that must drive Hannity and TC a bit nuts if we are being honest.
They had a President who would just out of the blue call into their shows and chat with them on air, you do not get anymore direct access to the President than that…as much as they slam Biden and his administration, both Hannity and TC would love it if Biden called into their shows to chat, they lost a friend when Trump was not re-elected and are probably still experiencing the withdrawal symptoms that accompany the loss of direct access to the President of the United States.
@Kathy:
I’ve got a confession to make: I’ve never watched more than a few episodes and a smattering of clips from Seinfeld. I’m unfamiliar with most of the references, and I don’t know the original context of that quote. I always see it invoked sarcastically, as if it represents a deluded rationalization people make for lying. If so, I disagree. Or, rather, I agree with Costanza!
It indeed is not a lie if the person believes it. Now, I realize there’s somewhat of a gray area when it comes to self-deception. If you convince yourself of something by telling it to yourself often enough, then probably deep down you know the truth. So therefore, it is a lie even if you appear to “believe” it on the surface. As long as there’s any level of awareness that it isn’t true–even if subconsciously–I can see an argument for calling it a lie.
That’s what’s tricky about Trump. But what I think some people get wrong is failing to understand that the engine behind narcissism is in fact deep self-hatred. Trump knows he’s a pile of human garbage–an utterly worthless excuse for a human being. He’s known it his entire life, for as long as he’s had any sense of self. His entire purpose in life–what he obsesses on every waking moment–is a pathetically obvious and transparent attempt to erase that self-evident reality in the minds of others by screaming at every opportunity that he’s the most awesome godlike being ever to grace the planet. There are actually many narcissists walking around who share these traits. What sets Trump apart is that he never developed the social intelligence common to most people over the age of 4 on how to persuade people effectively. The only technique he knows is the Jedi Mind Trick–insisting on something that conflicts with people’s eyes and ears and then simply attempting to make people believe it through sheer force of will. The trouble is, this technique does have a certain influence on the weak-minded.
@Tyrell: I don’t know if they still do it, but a couple of years ago Ford wired the sub-woofers in certain models to “enhance” the exhaust note. I’m sure they can do that with the Mach e as well.
It would be like the 1980 movie “Airplane” though, where the engine noise soundtrack of the jet Boeing 707 was from a multi-engine prop plane (I’ve wondered if that engine noise was captured from the 1957 movie “Zero Hour” that “Airplane” was a parody of).
@Kylopod:
Trump once said that he never looked inside himself because he was afraid he might not like what he saw.
@Sleeping Dog:
He probably doesn’t want to lose the rental income on the three adjoining properties he owns.
@Tyrell:
@CSK:
For years BMW has played exhaust, engine sounds through the audio system on a few models, the 6 series cars in particular.
above should be @Owen:
@Owen: Yes, and the volume and tone is adjustable. I had a Chevy Impala SS. I took off the stock mufflers and put on some Pacemakers. It had a nice, throaty sound. But few would be the Ford Boss 429: 600 horsepower. Just hearing those things startup quickens one’s pulse.
@Owen:
The 2013 to 2019 version of the Renault Clio had a whole variety of fake engine noise that can be played via its sound system.
I think it got dropped from the current model due to general sniggering.
I have vaguely heard of enterprising, if daft, car sound system enthusiasts rigging up massive boot sound systems to direct the noise outside the car. People amazed as a Clio hatch goes past sounding like a Nissan GT-R on full chat. LOL.
@Kylopod:
Sacrilege! 🙂
I don’t recall the exact context, but it involved George advising Jerry on a lie, ending with the maxim “It’s not a lie if you believe it.”
I’ve made up lies I came to believe, as I’m sure most people have. Just never something that big. Things like “traffic was murder” when I show up late somewhere but traffic was actually normal. After you offer the excuse to several people, you’re convinced traffic was backed up for miles.
Bigger likes, like why you didn’t study for a test, are also repeated. But I know t it’s a lie and while I may wish it were true, I don’t really believe it. I assume it works that way with others.
@Teve:
IIRC current UK new car registrations have electric and hybrids at between 20% to 25%.
Numbers have exploded over the past 5 years.
To which I want to politely reply by saying, “Bullshit.”
false·hood
/ˈfôlsˌho͝od/
noun: falsehood
the state of being untrue.
One’s understanding does not, can not make a falsehood true, ergo it is still a lie whether the person who utters it is aware of that fact or not.
@OzarkHillbilly:
If every falsehood were a lie, this would be a conclusive argument. A lie is a deliberate falsehood.
@OzarkHillbilly:
I didn’t say anything about the definition of falsehood I was talking about the definition of lie. Here is Merriam-Webster:
@OzarkHillbilly:
There’s a difference between saying something that is false, and telling a lie. That difference is the knowledge/intent.
If asked, most people will say that 46 people have been sworn in as President of the United States. These people aren’t lying. They believe what they’re saying.
They are also saying something that is not, objectively, true. 45 people have been sworn in. Grover Cleveland counts as two separate presidencies (22 & 24), but he is not two different people.
🙂
Ninja’d by Kylopod.
@Sleeping Dog:
There is building potential, for a massive row this side of the pond over that.
EU are accusing AstraZeneca of failing to meet their commitments on vaccine delivery after massive funding, AZ disputing.
EU are claiming AZ is unjustifiably delivering more vaccines to UK; AZ and UK govt. claiming that it reflects the different contract terms, yelling commences.
Here’s where it has the potential to get very nasty very fast: EU may demand AZ redirect some output of UK vaccine supply to make up the European shortfall on grounds of equity.
UK govt. already making “unofficial” noises about blocking any diversion from UK production.
In turn some EU voices beginning “off the record” to moot a retaliation of blocking deliveries of the European production of the Pfizer and Janssen-Cilag vaccines.
Oh oh.
here’s an untrue story:
Feynman, Einstein and Schrödinger walk into a bar.
Feynman says, “It appears we’re inside a joke.”
Einstein replies, “But only to an observer who saw us walk in simultaneously.”
To which Schrödinger says, “If someone’s looking in the window, I’m leaving.”
More ignominy for the Head Churl:
The board of the condo across the street from Mar-a-Lago has voted unanimously to remove the name “Trump Plaza” from its towers.
@Kylopod: @Mu Yixiao: We are responsible for the things we say, and it behooves us to be correct. This is not to say a person can’t make a mistake, state a thing to the best of their knowledge which later turns out to be wrong. But uttering a falsehood thru willful ignorance does not exonerate one of a lie.
All these people running around saying Biden stole the election? They are liars. They want a thing to be true so badly they accept all the blatant lies without question and ignore anything that contradicts what they want to be true. Not because they can’t tell the difference, but because they don’t want to tell the difference.
But according to George they aren’t lying. And so I repeat, bullshit.
@OzarkHillbilly:
I’m confused. Biden has stated several times by now that the past administration (so-called) left various problems, drew back or eliminated various practices, etc.
Well and good. but now Biden is working to fix these issues, making plans, issuing orders, and so on, instead of merely complaining about Trump and letting the problems fester.
What gives?
@OzarkHillbilly:
The operative word there is willful, i.e. with intent. If there’s no intent to deceive, it isn’t a lie, no matter how inaccurate it is.
As I said, there’s a gray area when it comes to lying to oneself. People can talk themselves into believing something when, deep down, they know it isn’t true. I’d agree with you in calling that a kind of lying. But if there’s no awareness whatsoever that the claim isn’t accurate–not even subconsciously–it isn’t a lie by any definition.
Many of them? Sure. All of them? I don’t think so. You may not realize how brainwashed some people who consume right-wing media are. If OANN or whatever says there was massive voter fraud, they truly, sincerely believe there was–because it comes from sources which they trust. They didn’t talk themselves into believing it–they believe it because they can’t conceive that they’re being lied to, and because it fits their preconceptions and prejudices about the world which these sources feed into.
@JohnSF:
Saw something about that row this morning. Not really surprised and with the UK out of the EU, with likely hard feelings on both sides, there isn’t a low level bureaucratic way of resolving it. Low level bureaucratic solutions are often, if not usually better, as the egos involved are smaller and the bureaucrat simply wants a resolution so to move on to something else.
@Sleeping Dog:
It may not be helping that the UK is also picking a fight over the diplomatic status of the EU Embassy in London. Insisting that UK will no longer give EU full “nation” level diplomatic recognition, which almost everybody else does.
Probably Secretary Raab is trying to burnish his credentials with the brexiteers and stoke the brexit/remain culture war.
And vaccine supply in Europe has been hampered by the failure of the Sanofi/GlaxoSmithKline vaccine, so Sanofi are converting to produce Pfizer (dunno what GSK are doing).
Also company ownership and governance might get tangled up in it: AZ is UK/Swedish, GSK UK/Swiss.
Cloris Leachman has died. Natural causes. She was 94.
All together now: “Yes! Yes! Yes! He vass…MY BOYFRIEND!”
@Kylopod:
To start with, they are willfully deceiving themselves. Something we all do at one time or another. I’ve been there on a personal level and I well recognize it in others.
Is it true? If not, it’s a falsehood.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA… I live among these idiots, I am surrounded by them. I know exactly what they are.
Ah yes, the old, “It’s not their fault, they are blameless, the poor souls.” Bullshit, especially that last part about not being able to “conceive that they’re being lied to”. C’mon, you know gawddamned good and well that they can conceive of being lied to. What is it they call people like me? Oh yeah, “Lieberals.” What do they call media sources not named FOX or OANN or whatever? Oh yeah, “fake news.” Stop making excuses for these people, because they sure as hell do talk themselves into believing it. You even say as much:
So stop it, these people aren’t stupid. They know good and well that trump lies every time he opens his mouth. They might call it “No More Bullshit” but that’s only because it fits their preconceptions and prejudices about what the world should be, not what it is. They see those preconceptions and prejudices falling apart all around them and they can’t face it so they lash out, brandishing their guns because they have nothing else but losing arguments.
Oh and feel free to insert Jim Wright’s “not all” when it appears that I am implying otherwise, like for instance when I say, “these people aren’t stupid” because by and large they aren’t, but some of them are definitely grade A morons.
That makes 2 of us because I have no idea what you are talking about.
@OzarkHillbilly:
I think we’re talking past each other–and our “willfulometers” calibrated differently.
I have had far more opportunity than I wish was possible to deal with people (mostly women) in abusive relationships. They use “willful ignorance” as a valuable survival tool. The same as they use cognitive dissonance.
These are people who are–outside of that relationship–strong, independent, and intelligent.
I have a very good friend who, with my encouragement and assistance*, just got out of a 10-year abusive relationship. He wasn’t physically abusive, he was mentally and emotionally abusive. He lied to her for 10 years in order to manipulate her. She believed the lies because they were so good, and played upon her weaknesses (and, oddly, her strengths**).
My friend is still dealing with the lies she was told and believed. There was a situation this week where she said she said she trusted me with something–and then acted in a way that shows she obviously doesn’t. She didn’t lie to me. She honestly believed what she said–but her trained responses took over.
You see Trumpists as evil people that need to be despised and defeated. No excuses for their behavior.
I see most of them as victims. They were looking for someone who understood them–who stood up for them, because they’re weak. Trump stepped in and, like an abusive boyfriend, played on their fears and promised them a rose garden. They believe him.
The President of the United States of America said these things are true. If you can’t believe him, who can you believe?
For some, it’s genetic. They simply don’t have the mental capacity to understand that they’re being manipulated.
For most, it’s our fault. For 30 years we’ve been “protecting” our children from anything that might possibly hurt them. We haven’t allowed them to encounter conflict. We’ve been “scheduling play dates” instead of shooing them out the door to play with their friend (and be sure to come home when the street lights come on!).
We haven’t exposed them to opposing viewpoints and encouraged them to find common ground. We haven’t taught them that strength comes from understanding defeat. We haven’t given them the tools they need to stand up to bullies and manipulators.
We have bred a generation of easily-manipulated fools who are quick to outrage at the slightest provocation.
And you’re making it worse by insisting on animosity and confrontation when pity and education are what we need.
==========
* I’m just one of several people who did the same.
** She is someone who cares and wants to help people. He played the “wounded soldier”.
@OzarkHillbilly:
I guess sarcasm doesn’t speak for itself then.
The Wyoming Republican party has evolved into cannibalism. The Trump faction Vs. The Old Guard.
I am so here for this, bought popcorn, and will update you regularly. 🙂